Topic: Nights Watch by Afrikoin - page 166. (Read 303310 times)
Time to bump this thread... 
with a bearish scenario by ChartArt:
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCCNY/Pyqav6hy-All-time-Bitcoin-uptrend-broke-in-2016-New-downtrend-to-500-CNY/
In other news, daily MACD is negative with negative divergence (I was expecting a small bump, but didn't happen).
12h MACD is negative and divergence is about to turn negative, last time this happened price dropped from 445$ to 352$.
A large drop would take the 3d MACD into negative, like in August 2014 (from 580$).
About 3 weeks from now the MtGox trustee is supposed to present a new report. I expect him to announce the auctioning of the 202k coins.
Oh, and Chinese authorities are allegedly working on a national cryptocurrency, in which case they will probably ban bitcoin (again!).
with a bearish scenario by ChartArt:https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCCNY/Pyqav6hy-All-time-Bitcoin-uptrend-broke-in-2016-New-downtrend-to-500-CNY/
In other news, daily MACD is negative with negative divergence (I was expecting a small bump, but didn't happen).
12h MACD is negative and divergence is about to turn negative, last time this happened price dropped from 445$ to 352$.
A large drop would take the 3d MACD into negative, like in August 2014 (from 580$).
About 3 weeks from now the MtGox trustee is supposed to present a new report. I expect him to announce the auctioning of the 202k coins.
Oh, and Chinese authorities are allegedly working on a national cryptocurrency, in which case they will probably ban bitcoin (again!).
Dude , thanks for this! For bumping up the thread too. Market has been sideways choppy dragging. And it is obvious we are waiting for a break (out).
Like you, I have been watching if market plays out similar to May - June - August 2014. Mostly to see if it plays out similarly but with a factor of X2/ X1.5
Also because it looks like an ab ($346 - $687) lower magnitude of AB ($198 - $500)
I am off to a fieldwork. So won't be posting much this week. Please post when you can. Especially fundamentals - fallen off the wagon on this especially.
I love these charts!
They reinforce a the theme we all care about - why we are here. Bitcoin as a mainstream accepted digital asset. Digital gold.
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They reinforce a the theme we all care about - why we are here. Bitcoin as a mainstream accepted digital asset. Digital gold.
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Bitcoin Correlations to Macro Environment: Gold and Yuan Standouts
https://tradeblock.com/blog/bitcoin-correlations-to-macro-environment-gold-and-yuan-standouts
https://tradeblock.com/blog/bitcoin-correlations-to-macro-environment-gold-and-yuan-standouts
Time to bump this thread... with a bearish scenario by ChartArt:
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCCNY/Pyqav6hy-All-time-Bitcoin-uptrend-broke-in-2016-New-downtrend-to-500-CNY/
In other news, daily MACD is negative with negative divergence (I was expecting a small bump, but didn't happen).
12h MACD is negative and divergence is about to turn negative, last time this happened price dropped from 445$ to 352$.
A large drop would take the 3d MACD into negative, like in August 2014 (from 580$).
About 3 weeks from now the MtGox trustee is supposed to present a new report. I expect him to announce the auctioning of the 202k coins.
Oh, and Chinese authorities are allegedly working on a national cryptocurrency, in which case they will probably ban bitcoin (again!).
with a bearish scenario by ChartArt:https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCCNY/Pyqav6hy-All-time-Bitcoin-uptrend-broke-in-2016-New-downtrend-to-500-CNY/
In other news, daily MACD is negative with negative divergence (I was expecting a small bump, but didn't happen).
12h MACD is negative and divergence is about to turn negative, last time this happened price dropped from 445$ to 352$.
A large drop would take the 3d MACD into negative, like in August 2014 (from 580$).
About 3 weeks from now the MtGox trustee is supposed to present a new report. I expect him to announce the auctioning of the 202k coins.
Oh, and Chinese authorities are allegedly working on a national cryptocurrency, in which case they will probably ban bitcoin (again!).
More than likely, I have deleted the chart from my imgur account. Here is an updated one.
...and one more with a hurricane style path forecast
Is there allowance in your chart for a speculative pre-halving bubble? Possibly post halving?
In this chart? No... But it's not the only possible count. I just added the extra lines and updated with it since it is following nicely for now. Some other ideas are a quick and dirty SR type dump which would be over in time to allow for a rally pre-halving. Another is we continue a down trend but somewhere in the middle, halving happens and produces a nice rally (pre, during or post). In the latter, the big rally would happen after the fact, just as it did in 2012. A third option is that we keep more of a sideways range. A BIG range. Get a rally (pre, during or post-halving) that takes us up in a continuation since the $500 touch. Then, when the halving hype wears off, we continue the bear market, finishing up somewhere in 2017 and very anxious for the "historical wave-III".
I know this isn't what anyone here wants to hear, and I am still bearish in the short to medium term, but unless this is the 5th of a 3, then we are still in "Historical wave-II" and will head back toward the lows eventually. In the case that we are in 5 of (3) right now (Where 1200 was 3 of (3) ), then there will be many disappointed bulls around here when we only get marginally higher ATH than previous and we see a bear market that follows that would dwarf the great bear of 2014/15.
Look here.
We cansee why there is such a clear division between traders calling for a jump up to $650 and others calling for a break below $350 to $320, other as far as $250 and even others as lows as $150
We are sitting on just above 200 EMA, and there is a support line from $198 low in August.
There is also another longer term support line from back in 2013 touching at $41, and $63.
Now, if we break 200 EMA to the downside, a $276- $250 is the next logical level of support if indeed, price is to continue on a trend up. If $250/$276 holds, it is a nice support to bounce off from and try recapture $500 and/or above 200 EMA.
The support line from $198 is testing now, I do not see it holding TBH, and see price falling through.
Therefore, for the next few weeks, I am looking at $250 as a target.
We cansee why there is such a clear division between traders calling for a jump up to $650 and others calling for a break below $350 to $320, other as far as $250 and even others as lows as $150
We are sitting on just above 200 EMA, and there is a support line from $198 low in August.
There is also another longer term support line from back in 2013 touching at $41, and $63.
Now, if we break 200 EMA to the downside, a $276- $250 is the next logical level of support if indeed, price is to continue on a trend up. If $250/$276 holds, it is a nice support to bounce off from and try recapture $500 and/or above 200 EMA.
The support line from $198 is testing now, I do not see it holding TBH, and see price falling through.
Therefore, for the next few weeks, I am looking at $250 as a target.
"Looking back. This could be the final dip before going up. Or it goes down and sideways like 2015."
https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/429acu/daily_discussion_saturday_january_23_2016/cz8qza3
https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/429acu/daily_discussion_saturday_january_23_2016/cz8qza3
More than likely, I have deleted the chart from my imgur account. Here is an updated one.
...and one more with a hurricane style path forecast
Is there allowance in your chart for a speculative pre-halving bubble? Possibly post halving?
More than likely, I have deleted the chart from my imgur account. Here is an updated one.
...and one more with a hurricane style path forecast
Until I see price conclusively below that lower trendline (currently) at $320 for me bull mode is still on.
Yes. The bullmarket is still on, even if BTC falls to $285, looking at the bigger picture, this could still still play out as a likely test of extreme lower limits of bull trend.
But what this price action proves, is what I told you earlier in this thread.
"Your Pitchfork TA, sucks!"
Get rid of it. You clearly aren't able to recognise correct conditions in which to apply it, and it is only filling your head full of delusion.
I prefer this pitchfork:
I would not take trading advice from ROger Ver.
Bitcoin is not dead, that is for sure. But the hardfork/soft fork risk is real. I do not see how it would not affect price.
Bitcoin is not dead, that is for sure. But the hardfork/soft fork risk is real. I do not see how it would not affect price.
Who was speaking plainly of Roger Ver? The video I linked also gives us a hint that Jeff himself is buying bitcons, look at the 7:12 of the video if you missed it.
Quote from: Jeff Berwick
I've been wanting to buy more bitcoin and it rose to 450$ so fast that I've been waiting/hoping for a pull back so this was a little bit of a blessing for me too, so I guess we will have to thank Mike for that 
If Jeff bought in at 380$ then why on Earth should I remain bearish? Obviously I bought in at 380$ also and right now at 414$ prices it seems it was a right thing to do.
Will watch. Thanks for th time link. I didn't watch the video, i assumed it was all about Ver.
Still, Jeff could be wrong or right.
Let us watch and see how price moves. Have to break and hold above $431.
I would not take trading advice from ROger Ver.
Bitcoin is not dead, that is for sure. But the hardfork/soft fork risk is real. I do not see how it would not affect price.
Bitcoin is not dead, that is for sure. But the hardfork/soft fork risk is real. I do not see how it would not affect price.
Who was speaking plainly of Roger Ver? The video I linked also gives us a hint that Jeff himself is buying bitcons, look at the 7:12 of the video if you missed it.
Quote from: Jeff Berwick
I've been wanting to buy more bitcoin and it rose to 450$ so fast that I've been waiting/hoping for a pull back so this was a little bit of a blessing for me too, so I guess we will have to thank Mike for that
If Jeff bought in at 380$ then why on Earth should I remain bearish? Obviously I bought in at 380$ also and right now at 414$ prices it seems it was a right thing to do.
How sure are you still sure we are gonna break $350..?
Yes. I still think we're going to break $350. i am looking at $320 - $300, possibly $250
Pffft, we're going for 500 not 300.
500? Why you say so?
i find that hard to believe considering all the drama around the bitcoin protocol. Does that not matter?
Because the market sentiment has changed by now. Mike's rant is yesterday and no one takes it seriously any more. The drama is over since we left 380$ prices. 380$ was the price that was critical, I even sold 10 BTC when we went to 380$ but after 2 days of no price action I bought the sold bitcoins back at the same price and boom, we went to 420$ range. 400$ was the psychological barrier for many and prices lower than that had a high potential to trigger panic selling. Now that we are above 400$ again no one is panicking any more.
I don't want to sound lame, but look at the smart money:
Roger Ver Retorts Hearn - The Death of Bitcoin Has Been Greatly Exaggerated - TDV Interviews
I would not take trading advice from ROger Ver.
Bitcoin is not dead, that is for sure. But the hardfork/soft fork risk is real. I do not see how it would not affect price.
How sure are you still sure we are gonna break $350..?
Yes. I still think we're going to break $350. i am looking at $320 - $300, possibly $250
Wish you good luck. What's your strategy, if it doesn't go your way?
I do not day trade. I look for medium - long term entry positions. That is my strategy, large moves. It could go up to $500 and i would not be bothered. What I am interested in is, what happens after that. Is the bear trend over or not.
So what you're saying is, that the break of $500 is similar to the break of $135 back in 2013 or the break of $15 in late 2012/early 2013? I assume you are now >80% in cash. Do I get it right?
I havent been around that long.
If scroll up this thread. Post #627.
That is what I am saying
How sure are you still sure we are gonna break $350..?
Yes. I still think we're going to break $350. i am looking at $320 - $300, possibly $250
Pffft, we're going for 500 not 300.
500? Why you say so?
i find that hard to believe considering all the drama around the bitcoin protocol. Does that not matter?
Because the market sentiment has changed by now. Mike's rant is yesterday and no one takes it seriously any more. The drama is over since we left 380$ prices. 380$ was the price that was critical, I even sold 10 BTC when we went to 380$ but after 2 days of no price action I bought the sold bitcoins back at the same price and boom, we went to 420$ range. 400$ was the psychological barrier for many and prices lower than that had a high potential to trigger panic selling. Now that we are above 400$ again no one is panicking any more.
I don't want to sound lame, but look at the smart money:
Roger Ver Retorts Hearn - The Death of Bitcoin Has Been Greatly Exaggerated - TDV Interviews
How sure are you still sure we are gonna break $350..?
Yes. I still think we're going to break $350. i am looking at $320 - $300, possibly $250
Wish you good luck. What's your strategy, if it doesn't go your way?
I do not day trade. I look for medium - long term entry positions. That is my strategy, large moves. It could go up to $500 and i would not be bothered. What I am interested in is, what happens after that. Is the bear trend over or not.
So what you're saying is, that the break of $500 is similar to the break of $135 back in 2013 or the break of $15 in late 2012/early 2013? I assume you are now >80% in cash. Do I get it right?
How sure are you still sure we are gonna break $350..?
Yes. I still think we're going to break $350. i am looking at $320 - $300, possibly $250
Wish you good luck. What's your strategy, if it doesn't go your way?
I do not day trade. I look for medium - long term entry positions. That is my strategy, large moves. It could go up to $500 and i would not be bothered. What I am interested in is, what happens after that. Is the bear trend over or not.
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