IvoZ
Hello DanV, has continuous uptrent in the recent days and overshoot fo your targets changed everything in your opinion in the main chart? Do you still expect large drops incoming?
DanV
Thank you for your question. Not entirely sure what you are seeking from me nor if you are simply wishing to see if I will ever change my view.
First of all let be absolutely clear. I have not inherent to agenda nor wish necessarily wish to see the price of Bitcoin's decline or will it just because I might say so. Since I get the feeling from several questions and my interaction with others that leaqds me to suspect that many feel that no matter what, I will always suggest that the price will decline.
So in my answer to the above, forgetting that this is a Bitcoin (and all the competing sentiments I observe amongst the Bitcoin community) and taking this as purely a financial instrument (which in the minds of many clearly it is not and I have no issue with that), and looking at the price action since Nov 2013 high, it seems that we have a zigzag decline resulting in Jan 2015 low. Ordinarily by this corection, I could conclude that overall correction is complete. If this was the case however, you would at least look for 5 wave impulsive move of the Jan 2015 low based on EW principle. Many analysts and traders feel that the strong rally we have experienced is the evident 5 wave move I should be looking for.
However I cannot see that being the case, nor has anyone yet satisfactorily shown me the valid wave counts. So if we do not have the 5 wave impulsive move of the Jan 2015 low, then in my view it seems that whatever it is, it's a part of corrective move of the decline from Nov 2013 - Jan 2015. Now this could either be a zigzag or some sort of triangle or other combination of moves to the upside, even if this results in a price moving much higher ie, 700+ but on completion would likely result in eventually dropping back towards Jan 2015 low.
Alternatively, and it is very speculative view, that we might see a massive contracting triangle which includes the price decline from Nov 2013 high in the form of 3-3-3-3-3 configuration. In this event whilst we will continue to move in up & down cycle with each contracting but consisting of 3 swings. In this event it has a long way to go before it is completed but at least the lowest swing of pattern formed in Jan 2015 will be the lasting low.
Now if you are realistic, I don't think anyone in their right minds could say with 100% certainty which of the eventualities will be true. I am not aware of any method which can say that the final low is in. Only time will tell.
So in that context, I am open to both possibilities that final low is in place or that we are retracing the decline from Nov 2013 high to Jan 2015 with final low is yet to form.
This might not be the answer you are looking for nor will it assist you or anyone who might feel that they wish to know where is the absolute low. However, no matter how may times I am asked, I cannot add any more than above and which in various forms, I have already expressed before.
The chart below, is only intended to give you some ideas of possible outcome based on EW principles as likely patterns in this overall juncture. In deed there may be some other permutation or combination of them, I cannot reasonably envisage nor be able to show as the chart will become just jungle of lines. But hope it will illustrate both the likely complexity and the possibilities that the final low is yet in the future.
