Bubble Territory:
An email i wrote to myself in November 2013 about "bubbles". This was close to the $1163 Bitcoin price high of 2013, preceding a 20 month bear market decline to $162.
Its always a bubble until its not
That is not true. That kind of thinking seems to buy into mainstream nonsense.
You only know if something is a bubble after the fact, and that could take 6 months or longer to make such determinations.
Surely, you can have your theories about how probable you believe it to be for the price to go up or for the price to go down, or how far and how long any correction will be, but mere corrections do not either mean that we are in a bubble or that it is the end of the bull market.
For example, I will concede that November 2013 was a bubble; however, we likely did not know that until about mid 2014, and such bubble did not become completely clear until the end of 2014 and through an almost year long period of BTC price stagnation and suppression that carried on through a large majority of 2015. So when we transitioned out of the 2014/2015 bear market, we did not know that we had truly transitioned into a bull market until about May of 2016, and that transition out of the bear market and confirmation of the late 2016 to 2017 bull market was reinforced over and over and over again by subsequent price rises that occurred, in spite various corrections along the way.
To me, it seems inaccurate to either assert that we are in a bubble or to suggest that our upsurge in prices is ending any time soon or that our bull market is ending. It is even quite possible that we will experience 30% or 40% price corrections from here; however, even an actual happening of those kinds of large price corrections would not mean that we are transitioning out of the bull market that we have been in since about October 2015 and confirmed about May 2016 and thereafter. As you likely realize, since August 2017, we have had more than a 7x increase in BTC prices and since then we have had two BTC price corrections bordering on 30% (both of them in the past , and one price correction that was about 40% (in mid September from $4980 to $2970). Even, those corrections do not show up very well on the weekly candle charts, but each of those kinds of price corrections do allow for refueling, continuing price move upwards and also allow for buy support to catch up to the new price.
I am not going to concede that we are always in a bubble until we are not, but if we were to have a blow off top, then we might get a stronger sense that we are ending the bubble, and we are not going to know exactly what is a blow off top if we have several corrections along the way, but I will concede at some point the upwards price surge will cease, and sometime there after we can say that it was a bubble - yet currently, we could have a blow off top that leads us to $35k, $50k or even $100k or beyond before we would then be able to ascertain that it is an actual bubble rather than folks constantly asserting bubble, without any actual evidence of such - beyond witnessing exponential price growth - which could be part of the exponential part of an s-curve, rather than an actual bubble.
I will also concede that if you hold various theories because you are attempting to assess various alt coins and ICO pumps as if they were actually leading the bitcoin price - or that they have some kind of independent meaning beyond the strength and performance of bitcoin, then you are likely going to bring a lot of fuzzy logic to the table, merely because you are bringing in irrelevant and important ideas into your analysis - when bitcoin is the main game in town, and continues to be in spite of the various distractions of the alts and the ICOs. In looking back at some of the previous posts in this thread, I do see that there are some of these kinds of altcoin and ICO nonsense discussions that are contributing to some of the fuzzy analysis and faltering attempts at BTC price predictions.