"No Reserve" explanation - page 6. | Bitcointalksearch.org

mjcmurfy

sr. member

Activity: 336

Merit: 250

Quote from: cypherdoc on December 28, 2011, 11:59:34 PM

Quote from: mjcmurfy on December 28, 2011, 11:56:03 PM

Quote from: ineededausername on December 28, 2011, 11:52:32 PM

I see upward momentum despite a massive amount of USD trapped in an insolvent bucket shop. This is insanely bullish.

What I see is people buying without considering the implications of bitcoinica being insolvent.
I think whoever just bought those couple thousand coins is going to get burned badly.

no, they are going to make a fortune as the price continues up to its equilibrium fundamental price which is MUCH higher than this.

are you short?

I don't use bitcoinica. I am 100% in USD right now though, as I have already mentioned a number of times, and have been discussing moving into fiat over the past couple of days. I'm not trying to sway opinion, just giving my own. I might be wrong, but all of my data was telling me to get out.

ineededausername

hero member

Activity: 784

Merit: 1000

bitcoin hundred-aire

Quote from: cypherdoc on December 29, 2011, 12:01:10 AM

can everyone see that massive $236,000 @ $3.90?

soon that is going to tumble over to the right and crush all the asks. they are getting impatient.

Let's see $5 today or tomorrow! Grin

cypherdoc

legendary

Activity: 1764

Merit: 1002

can everyone see that massive $236,000 @ $3.90?

soon that is going to tumble over to the right and crush all the asks. they are getting impatient.

zhoutong

vip

Activity: 490

Merit: 502

Quote from: mjcmurfy on December 28, 2011, 11:56:03 PM

Quote from: ineededausername on December 28, 2011, 11:52:32 PM

I see upward momentum despite a massive amount of USD trapped in an insolvent bucket shop. This is insanely bullish.

What I see is people buying without considering the implications of bitcoinica being insolvent.
I think whoever just bought those couple thousand coins is going to get burned badly.

Bitcoinica is never insolvent. We now have tens of thousands of Bitcoins, and that's it.

Too many people have long positions and we couldn't fulfill any more buy orders.

And now it has already been fixed. Buying and selling are normal now.

smickles

sr. member

Activity: 446

Merit: 250

Quote from: mjcmurfy on December 28, 2011, 11:56:03 PM

Quote from: ineededausername on December 28, 2011, 11:52:32 PM

I see upward momentum despite a massive amount of USD trapped in an insolvent bucket shop. This is insanely bullish.

What I see is people buying without considering the implications of bitcoinica being insolvent.
I think whoever just bought those couple thousand coins is going to get burned badly.

That couldn't have been one trade, there was price fluctuation as the 7k went thru the pipes.

cypherdoc

legendary

Activity: 1764

Merit: 1002

Quote from: mjcmurfy on December 28, 2011, 11:56:03 PM

Quote from: ineededausername on December 28, 2011, 11:52:32 PM

I see upward momentum despite a massive amount of USD trapped in an insolvent bucket shop. This is insanely bullish.

What I see is people buying without considering the implications of bitcoinica being insolvent.
I think whoever just bought those couple thousand coins is going to get burned badly.

no, they are going to make a fortune as the price continues up to its equilibrium fundamental price which is MUCH higher than this.

are you short?

cypherdoc

legendary

Activity: 1764

Merit: 1002

Quote from: zhoutong on December 28, 2011, 11:06:29 PM

Quote from: Zotia on December 28, 2011, 10:58:47 PM

Quote from: zhoutong on December 28, 2011, 10:48:21 PM

Quote from: Zotia on December 28, 2011, 10:39:41 PM

Quote from: zhoutong on December 28, 2011, 10:23:49 PM

Quote from: cypherdoc on December 28, 2011, 10:21:53 PM

LOL! please think of a fix that will make everyone money.

Well, the best way for you to make money right now is to take advantage of the imminent long squeeze.

Why do you believe there will be a long squeeze?

IMO, it's the other way around:
-Because you can't buy BTC on Bitcoinica, anyone who wishes to buy BTC will need to buy them on on MtGox, leading to higher prices.
-Because you can't buy BTC on Bitcoinica, any bull with BTC will be LESS likely to sell because they can't re-buy them if they sell too low.

I don't see your logic. If something is in short supply, its price goes up, not down.

Am I missing something?

There are a lot of long positions on Bitcoinica, so anyone with the power to push the price down will cause a lot of forced liquidations, and Bitcoinica will sell at very low prices.

Basically it's you sell X BTC, Bitcoinica will then sell X BTC to you at bottom price.

They can always do this. How is this different from normal?

Now the opportunity is huge. And it's confirmed.

In normal situations, there are not that many long positions.

this prolonged upward move has placed you into this untenable position. further upward movement will make it even worse.

so who will step up and sell to Zhou to allow him to cover and get out of a losing position?

i have lots of btc but am i going to sell to help you out? NO. you allowed everyone to sell them to me.

mjcmurfy

sr. member

Activity: 336

Merit: 250

Quote from: ineededausername on December 28, 2011, 11:52:32 PM

I see upward momentum despite a massive amount of USD trapped in an insolvent bucket shop. This is insanely bullish.

What I see is people buying without considering the implications of bitcoinica being insolvent.
I think whoever just bought those couple thousand coins is going to get burned badly.

chunglam

donator

Activity: 229

Merit: 106

Quote from: notme on December 28, 2011, 11:37:56 PM

Quote from: chunglam on December 28, 2011, 11:24:44 PM

Quote from: zhoutong on December 28, 2011, 11:12:51 PM

Quote from: chunglam on December 28, 2011, 11:09:39 PM

Hi Zhoutong, are you sending the signal to "The Manipulator"?

I'm not, but everyone knows this.

So I assume that the Manipulator already knows and I just want to let traders know how serious this can be.

So, what is your recommendation for normal trader like me?

That depends entirely on your timeframe. Short term, we may see a big dip. Longer term, there are obviously lots of buyers -> price rise, just make sure you don't use too much leverage or you will get liquidated in the squeeze if it occurs. Personally, I have liquidated my long position for a nice profit and will reenter if it dips. If it doesn't most of my margin balance will be moving to MtGox for my bot to play with. Except for the recent profit (which I assume can't be converted) it's all BTC, so technically I'm still long, just no Bitcoinica position.

Thanks for your advice. I also have some Bitcoin holding (mining and profit from previous long position) besides current long position. I may consider to liquidate my current long position.

ineededausername

hero member

Activity: 784

Merit: 1000

bitcoin hundred-aire

Quote from: mjcmurfy on December 28, 2011, 11:49:48 PM

Quote from: ineededausername on December 28, 2011, 11:46:31 PM

OH FUCK
this is going against my expectations in a huge way

It has only gone up 10c, or are we looking at different charts?

I see upward momentum despite a massive amount of USD trapped in an insolvent bucket shop. This is insanely bullish.

Litt

sr. member

Activity: 350

Merit: 250

Quote from: cypherdoc on December 28, 2011, 11:44:29 PM

i've told you what i think has happened. in a small, immature market, the short selling Zhou provided has caused a long term unnatural suppression of the price over the past several months.

now we're seeing market fundamentals snap back in a vicious way. lotsa ppl are going to get hurt...

+1

BTC price won't be held down by Bitcoinica trading alone anymore and it's showing.

mjcmurfy

sr. member

Activity: 336

Merit: 250

Quote from: ineededausername on December 28, 2011, 11:46:31 PM

OH FUCK
this is going against my expectations in a huge way

It has only gone up 10c, or are we looking at different charts?

cypherdoc

legendary

Activity: 1764

Merit: 1002

btw, Dow futures are ramping right now and the USD is plunging again. reflation is here.

hold onto your Bitcoins.

cypherdoc

legendary

Activity: 1764

Merit: 1002

i smell blood in the water.

ineededausername

hero member

Activity: 784

Merit: 1000

bitcoin hundred-aire

OH FUCK
this is going against my expectations in a huge way

cypherdoc

legendary

Activity: 1764

Merit: 1002

Quote from: mjcmurfy on December 28, 2011, 11:45:52 PM

IMO, it has snapped back already and has overshot. It will be correcting in the other direction over the next few days.

not until the carnage has occurred...

mjcmurfy

sr. member

Activity: 336

Merit: 250

IMO, it has snapped back already and has overshot. It will be correcting in the other direction over the next few days/weeks.

cypherdoc

legendary

Activity: 1764

Merit: 1002

i've told you what i think has happened. in a small, immature market, the short selling Zhou provided has caused a long term unnatural suppression of the price over the past several months.

now we're seeing market fundamentals snap back in a vicious way. lotsa ppl are going to get hurt...

cypherdoc

legendary

Activity: 1764

Merit: 1002

Quote from: zhoutong on December 28, 2011, 11:06:29 PM

Quote from: Zotia on December 28, 2011, 10:58:47 PM

Quote from: zhoutong on December 28, 2011, 10:48:21 PM

Quote from: Zotia on December 28, 2011, 10:39:41 PM

Quote from: zhoutong on December 28, 2011, 10:23:49 PM

Quote from: cypherdoc on December 28, 2011, 10:21:53 PM

LOL! please think of a fix that will make everyone money.

Well, the best way for you to make money right now is to take advantage of the imminent long squeeze.

Why do you believe there will be a long squeeze?

IMO, it's the other way around:
-Because you can't buy BTC on Bitcoinica, anyone who wishes to buy BTC will need to buy them on on MtGox, leading to higher prices.
-Because you can't buy BTC on Bitcoinica, any bull with BTC will be LESS likely to sell because they can't re-buy them if they sell too low.

I don't see your logic. If something is in short supply, its price goes up, not down.

Am I missing something?

There are a lot of long positions on Bitcoinica, so anyone with the power to push the price down will cause a lot of forced liquidations, and Bitcoinica will sell at very low prices.

Basically it's you sell X BTC, Bitcoinica will then sell X BTC to you at bottom price.

They can always do this. How is this different from normal?

Now the opportunity is huge. And it's confirmed.

In normal situations, there are not that many long positions.

unfortunately, this is the first time i've seen a character flaw in Zhou. a market maker like him should NEVER be talking like this. the only reason he is IMO, is b/c he's trapped.

mjcmurfy

sr. member

Activity: 336

Merit: 250

I do not believe the price will be going up further. There is simply too much profit to be made by squeezing out the longs. The temptation to pull the trigger is ramping up and up, and the market is already seriously overbought. And even if the bulls don't decide to cash out, bitcoinica is going to have to replenish their USD balances somehow.

I could be wrong, but it is going to be interesting finding out.
I'll be staying up for another few hours. I have moved 100% into USD.

Topic: "No Reserve" explanation - page 6. (Read 8966 times)