Topic: Nordfx broker: news, weekly Analytics - page 29. (Read 50194 times)

 
First, a review of last week’s events:
 
- EUR/USD. The German unemployment rate remained unchanged at 5% in March. But the data on the US labor market looks just terrifying: 6.648 million applications for unemployment benefits, this figure has increased by 10 million in two weeks, which is equivalent to 6% of the entire labor force. The number of new jobs created outside the agricultural sector went down: -705K in March instead of +275K in February. Other indicators are no better. It is possible that the unemployment will jump higher than during the great depression. And at the same time, the dollar has been growing all week, taking away more than 350 points from the euro, which indicates that the market was already ready for such a collapse of the US economy and took this into account in its quotes in advance. The dollar was also helped by statements from President Trump and the Saudi Energy Ministry about a possible return to the negotiations in the OPEC+ format and an end to the oil war. Although, there is as little clarity on this front as on the front of the fight against the COVID-19 coronavirus.   
At the end of the week, having made a five-day walk to the south this time, the EUR/USD pair reached a strong support/resistance zone around 1.0800, where it set the final chord;

- GBP/USD. The most accurate forecast for this pair was given by graphical analysis, which predicted the sideways movement of the pair, which looks truly amazing. The pair stayed in the range of 1.2245-1.2485 for the whole week, and the scope of its fluctuations did not exceed 240 points, which, according to the current violent times, can be considered a flat. Some analysts believe that the reason for this is the increased interest of investors in the sharply cheaper pound in the first two decades of March, which leveled the current problems in the British economy;

- USD/JPY. A similar pattern to the GBP/USD is also visible on the chart of this pair, which also stayed in a 180-point wide side channel all week (106.90-108.70). And this is despite the fact that the dollar index for the week rose by 2.5%. One of the versions that explains this behavior of both pairs is that investors and speculators were so caught up in the struggle between the two "titans", the dollar and the Euro, that they postponed a serious game on the pound and the yen for the future, when it is clear what is happening with the two leading economies of the world and what the next actions of their regulators are;

 – cryptocurrencies. Recall that when analyzing the situation on the crypto market, we use a seven-day interval from previous Saturday to current Friday. The volatility of BTC/USD during this period was about 23%: having fallen on Monday, March 30 to the level of $5,870, the pair turned around and reached its peak of $7,260 on Thursday, April 02, followed by a rebound down, and the quotes were again below the level of $7,000. If you look at the chart, you can clearly see that for three weeks now, the bulls have been persistently trying to break through this resistance and gain a foothold above $7,000, but to no success so far. Due to the crisis caused by the coronavirus, investors are quite cautious, not risking transferring large amounts of fiat into cryptocurrencies. During the week, the market capitalization of the crypto market has not changed and is at the level of $256 billion. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index does not leave the red zone: it was at 9 two weeks ago, seven days later its value was 12, and now it is 14 out of 100 possible, which still indicates the presence of a strong fear in the market.
As for such top altcoins as Ripple (XRP/USD), Litecoin (LTC/USD) and Ethereum (ETH/USD), they, following the main cryptocurrency, also formed figures called "ascending triangle", trying to rise and gain a foothold above their own resistance zones: Ripple – above $0.18, Litecoin – $41, and Ethereum – $145.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. The regulators, both the Fed and the ECB, are now trying to put out the fire by flooding their markets with cheap money. But the fire of the corona crisis was so strong that it could not be controlled quickly. The data on the US economy for March leaves one speechless. But this is not all, the data for April, which we will see in a month, may look much more dramatic. In addition, the Federal Reserve's balance sheet is growing day by day, and its policy of easing reduces the attractiveness of the dollar as a safe haven currency. These arguments allow analysts at Nordea Markets to say that the EUR/USD pair is more likely to return to 1.1500 rather than to fall to 1.0000.
On the other hand, even in the Eurozone, despite the current account surplus, things are not running smoothly. Germany and other Northern European countries that are members of the EU have recently rejected the offer of Italy, France, Spain and six other Euro zone countries to issue joint bonds – coronabonds. Whether they can overcome their differences will become clear in the very near future, on Tuesday, April 07, a meeting of the Eurogroup consisting of EU Finance Ministers is due to take place, and on Wednesday, April 08, the ECB meeting on monetary policy will be held. Also, the results of the OPEC meeting on Monday April 06 and the results of the Fed meeting on April 08 may affect the formation of trends.
Meanwhile, 65% of experts, supported by graphical analysis on H4, 75% of oscillators and 90% of trend indicators, expect the downtrend to continue and the pair will decline to the lows of March 20-23 in the 1.0650 zone. The next support is at the level of 1.0500, the goal is the low of 1.0340 on January 01, 2017.
It should be noted that when switching from a weekly to a medium-term forecast, the situation changes radically, and here 65% of analysts expect that the pair will turn around at the end of April – in May, first it will return to the height of 1.1100, then 1.1240, and eventually rise to the level of 1.1500. At the same time, 45% of experts do not exclude that this may happen in the nearest future;

- GBP/USD. After such a difficult decision to leave the EU, the British regulators are doing everything possible to stabilize the economic situation. Against this background, 20% of analysts, in agreement with the graphical analysis on D1, expect the pair's sideways trend to continue in the range of 1.2245-1.2485. 50% of experts expect the channel to break down and reduce the pair to the 1.1640-1.1940 zone. The remaining 30%, on the contrary, side with the bulls, indicating the resistance levels of 1.2475, 1.2625 and 1.2840. As for the indicators, while most of the trend indicators are colored red, there is a complete discord among the oscillators: 25% on D1 signal that the pair is overbought, and the same amount on H4 show that it is oversold;

- USD/JPY. 60% of analysts expect from this pair a breakout of the 108.70 resistance and a strengthening of the dollar to the level of 111.65. Further growth of the pair remains in question, as several attempts between March 20 and 25 were unsuccessful.
Bear supporters among experts are now a minority - 40%, the nearest goal is to return to the lower border of the corridor 106.90-108.70. If it is broken through, the pair will first rush to the support of 105.00, then to 103.15, and then to the low of March 09 at the level of 101.15. It is difficult to say how long the pair will be able to cover this distance but considering the recent flights of 700 points a week, it can happen quite quickly.
As for the indicators, the discord is similar to the GBP/USD. On H4, 70% of trend indicators and 75% of oscillators are colored green, while the rest are red. On D1, the picture is diametrically opposite. A compromise situation is offered by graphical analysis on H4: first growth to the zone of 111.00, then a sharp drop first to the support of 108.00, and then another 100 points lower;

– cryptocurrencies. Messari analyst Cao Wang believes that the dominance of Bitcoin in the cryptocurrency market by the end of the crisis may exceed 90%, instead of the current 66%, as large investors prefer to work with the most reliable and proven coins during the market drawdown. At the same time, according to the Skew analytical platform, based on a survey of option trading participants, the BTC/USD pair will not be able to update the historical maximum of $20,000 this year, the probability of this event is only 4%. An extremely small part of option speculators bets even on a growth above the $10,000 mark.
However, investors are still pinning their hopes on the printing press launched by the Central banks of the leading countries due to the crisis. "An insane amount of money will soon be poured into the financial system," Changpeng Zhao, CEO of Binance crypto exchange, tweeted. Samson Mow, Chief Strategy Officer at Blockstream, agrees with him. In his opinion, the decision of the US Federal Reserve to print $6.2 trillion makes an excellent advertisement for Bitcoin, which was created just just to counterbalance the rampant monetary printing press. It is logical that, with the surplus of the fiat subject to depreciation, investors will again turn to the cryptocurrency market, and the BTC quotes will go up sharply.
The data from the analytical service Glassnode also look optimistic, according to which the number of wallets containing at least one BTC coin has reached a record high of 800 thousand. Cryptocurrency exchanges Kraken, OKEx, Bitfinex, Paxful and Luno have also reported an increase in the number of new users against the background of the coronavirus. For example, according to Kraken, the number of registrations on their platform has increased by 83%.
As for the pessimists, we can refer to the well-known analyst and trader Peter Brandt, who believes that Bitcoin may have "big problems" if it can not demonstrate steady growth against the background of the fall of the traditional financial market.
And in conclusion, another very long-term forecast, which will undoubtedly please even those who once purchased Bitcoin for $20,000 and since then have been watching its quotes with sadness. According to Kraken experts, the price of Bitcoin can reach $350,000 by 2044, which should be facilitated by the transition in the form of a $68 trillion inheritance from "baby boomers" to younger, "digital" generations. So, it's not a total loss, ladies and gentlemen!


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin

https://nordfx.com/

CORONAVIRUS: NOT TIME TO GET SICK, TIME TO PROFIT



Because of the COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic, the crypto market, Forex, and exchanges are all going down. "This is a great time to make a profit! Go to quarantine, stay at home and ... earn!"- experts of the brokerage company NordFX advise


The COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic continues to control the global markets. Countries are being quarantined, factories and offices are empty, and authorities are urging their citizens not to leave their homes. Of course, it is a forced measure, and there is nothing good about it. But there is still one advantage there: now we have much more time not only for active trading, but also for training and improving our own trading strategies.   

Until recently, many crypto gurus convinced us to invest in Bitcoin, which, they said, was to protect us in the event of a crisis in the traditional markets. However, the onset of the coronavirus proved the complete failure of this theory: it turned out that instead of growing, the main cryptocurrency can fall very quickly along with currencies, oil and stock indexes.
In just one month from February 12 to March 13, it lost 58% in price, dropping from $10,340 to $4,300. On some exchanges, the drop was even greater: up to $3,815, and reached 63%. Bitcoin lost up to half of its value only in one day from March 12 to 13, dragging the entire crypto market to the bottom. Quite a safe haven!

And if passive investors who invested money in Bitcoin in the hope that its price, as a result of the halving or just for no reason, will soar to the cosmic heavens, experience only disappointment, active traders, on the contrary, have received another opportunity to make a large profit. 

Recall that international brokers such as NordFX, unlike crypto exchanges, provide traders with significantly more opportunities to increase their capital.

First, NordFX clients have the opportunity to earn both on the growth and the fall of cryptocurrencies, which is very important in the conditions of such a high market volatility. At the same time, in order to make money on the fall of the Bitcoin, you do not need to have it at all: trading is similar to the CFD contracts for difference. You just open a sell trade in the trading terminal, and if the coin quotes go down, you will get a profit.

Secondly, this profit can be very high, because the broker provides its clients with the opportunity of margin trading. So, you just need the following to open trades on cryptocurrency pairs in NordFX:
- $150 to open a position of 1 Bitcoin
- $15 to open a position of 1 Ethereum
- $0.3 to open a position of 1 EOS
- $0.02 to open a position of 1 Ripple.

That is, to buy or sell 1 Bitcoin at the current price, you do not need to have $6000, but only $150 is enough, which allows you to make a profit 40 times greater than in normal trading without margin. So, in just one month from February 12 to March 13, you could have made a profit of 4000% on the fall of BTC.

In total, NordFX clients have the opportunity to make transactions with 11 cryptocurrency pairs. The order execution speed is less than 0.5 seconds. Deposits are in US dollars, Bitcoins or Ethereum at the customer's choice, and the minimum deposit is only $10.

And third, another important point is the ability to hedge transactions on cryptocurrencies, opening parallel positions on the Forex market (33 currency pairs), or trading gold, silver, oil, shares of leading global companies or major stock indices such as Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Nikkei, etc. And here, just as in the case of cryptocurrencies, you can earn not only on the growth of the price of these assets, but also on its fall. At the same time, the broker will immediately, automatically and without any collateral provide you with a leverage of up to 1:1000 for currency pairs. That is, if you have, for example, only $100, you can make transactions worth $100,000.

Summing up the above, we can say that the onset of the coronavirus is not a time to indulge in boredom, discouragement, and even more so, panic. This is a time to earn money, and self-isolation can bring real benefits to your health and finances. Quarantines begin and end, life goes on!   

Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.


#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin

https://nordfx.com/

CryptoNews


- Microsoft has published a patent application for a device called “Cryptocurrency system that uses data on body activity.” Apparently, the device will be designed to use human energy for mining cryptocurrencies. The document says that this will be a set of sensors with a module that converts the energy of the human body. According to some experts, "brain waves in the process of human activity emit a huge amount of energy, and this type of activity can easily be translated into computing power." Microsoft representatives have not yet commented on the new product, however, according to insider information, the device may appear on sale before the beginning of 2021, unless it is an April Fool’s joke.

- Messari analyst Cao Wang believes that Bitcoin's dominance in the cryptocurrency market may exceed 90% by the end of the crisis, instead of the current 66%. According to the expert, "during the period of the entire market drawdown, large investors prefer to work with proven cryptocurrencies. Most often, they choose Bitcoin, since its volatility does not look potentially dangerous. Other coins do not show so good results. We can single out Ethereum among the promising assets, but even it is currently trading in the red zone."
Cao Wang also drew attention to the fact that many investors prefer to invest in the US dollar at the moment. However, if the global crisis becomes even larger, some of them will rush to the cryptocurrency market, where, due to lack of experience, they will buy Bitcoin, considering it the main and most reliable digital currency.

- Option traders believe that Bitcoin will not be able to update the historical high of $20,000 this year. According to the Skew analytical platform, the probability of this event is only 4%. Experts say that the May halving has ceased to be a driver of future growth rate of the asset. In all the options that analysts have studied, an extremely small part of speculators bet on Bitcoin exceeding the $10,000 mark. Most of the traders believe that the cryptocurrency will continue to trade in the range of $5,000-6,000.

- The CEO of the largest cryptocurrency exchange Binance Changpeng Zhao is often criticized for his overly expressive statements that can encourage subscribers to take irresponsible actions. This time, Zhao called for the purchase of Bitcoins, even on credit. "An insane amount of money will soon flow into the financial system. Buy cryptocurrencies with your Visa cards, " Zhao tweeted.
Samson Mow, Chief Strategy Officer at Blockstream, agrees with Changpeng Zhao. In his opinion, the decision of the US Federal Reserve to print $6.2 trillion to maintain liquidity in connection with the economic crisis makes an excellent advertisement for Bitcoin, which was created just to counterbalance the rampant monetary printing press. "How much did we pay Trump to advertise Bitcoin?"- joked the top manager.
But another well-known analyst and trader, Peter Brandt, believes that Bitcoin may have "big problems" if it can't demonstrate steady growth against the backdrop of the fall of the traditional financial market.

- According to the analytical service Glassnode, the number of wallets containing at least one BTC coin has grown by 60% in three years and reached a record high of 800 thousand. The previous record was set at the end of 2017, when the exchange rate of the main digital coin set a historical high at $20,000. At that time, the number of such wallets was about 720 thousand. Since then, the number of addresses with a balance of at least one coin has been growing all the time, with the exception of the end of 2018, when the Bitcoin exchange rate collapsed to $3,200, their number fell to 690 thousand.
Cryptocurrency exchanges Kraken, OKEx, Bitfinex, Paxful and Luno also reported an increase in the number of new users against the background of the coronavirus. According to Kraken, the number of registrations on their platform has increased by 83%. "This influx of new users to the exchange is not due to the fact that people have nothing to do in quarantine during the pandemic. Most likely, people want to use the crisis and gain independence from the "outdated" financial system," says Pierre Rochard, a specialist in strategic development at Kraken.

 - Hackers have recently repeatedly broken into popular accounts on YouTube and have used them to arrange fake distributions of cryptocurrencies on behalf of famous people. This time, the scammers hacked more than thirty different YouTube channels, renamed them to allegedly various Microsoft brands, and broadcast through them a speech by Bill Gates in June 2019. At the same time, along with the "live broadcast", the scammers showed ads for a "prize draw", in which users were asked to send a certain amount in cryptocurrencies, which they allegedly would double in response.

- The Kraken exchange believes that the price of Bitcoin may reach $350,000 by 2044. This will be facilitated by the transition of a $68 trillion inheritance of capital from the "baby boomers" to the younger generations. Kraken experts gave a quantitative assessment of the potential flow of inherited capital into Bitcoin. According to their base scenario, with a tax of 2% and a peak of placing funds in the cryptocurrency at 5% of inherited assets, the inflow of investment in Bitcoin will be $971 billion. Based on the difference between the current issue of BTC and the expected figure for 2044, the price of the main cryptocurrency can reach $349,255. Even according to the most conservative estimate of exchange specialists, it will be around $70,000.


#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin

https://nordfx.com/

 
First, a review of last week’s events:
 
- EUR/USD. The pair's flights in recent weeks can be compared to aerobatics: first, an almost vertical takeoff up by 630 points, then a vertical peak by 860, and now a new leap up by 445 points.
Several factors caused the sharp drop in the dollar. The main one is the actions of the US Federal Reserve, which lowered the interest rate to 0.25% and launched a number of programs to support the US economy, injecting billions of dollars and distributing money to its citizens. As a result, the Fed's balance sheet exceeded a record 4.5 trillion dollars, and according to economists' calculations, it may even reach 6 trillion dollars. As a result, US stock indexes flew up, the S&P500 jumped by as much as 20%, pulling the EUR/USD pair with it: investors reacted positively to the steps taken by the US leadership and began to turn away from the dollar as a safe haven asset, preferring more attractive assets at the moment.
The ECB's coronavirus-related decision helped the European currency as well. Previously, the ECB could buy no more than a third of a country's public debt under the quantitative easing (QE) program, but now the Bank has removed this restriction, which has had a positive impact on the yield of Eurobonds and contributed to the growth of the euro.
It should be noted that 60% of experts expected the pair to return to the 1.1000-1.1240 zone within a month, and 75% during the quarter. But, as practice shows, the COVID-19 pandemic serves as a powerful catalyst or driver, repeatedly speeding up market processes. So, it happened this time: the pair reached the set goal not in a quarter, nor even in a month, but in just five days, putting the final point on Friday, March 27 at 1.1140;

- GBP/USD. Macroeconomic indicators such as the business activity index (PMI) indicate a contraction of the UK economy, to protect which the Bank of England has twice lowered the interest rate and increased the volume of bond purchases by ?200 billion over the past two months. However, at the last meeting, the leaders of this regulator unanimously voted against further reducing the rate and keeping it at 0.1%. It was also decided to leave the volume of bond purchases unchanged, at the level of ?645 billion. This indicates that the Bank of England considers the measures taken at this stage sufficient.
The impact of the coronavirus on the UK economy will become more apparent after we learn the results of the first quarter of 2020. So far, the situation here looks little better than in the EU and the US. Support for the pound is now also provided by the ability of the Government of this country to print its own money, without any agreements with the EU.
The bounce of the GBP/USD pair up last week looks even more impressive than the growth of EUR/USD: the British pound took away more than 830 points from the dollar. Recall that on March 20, it fell to the lowest values for the last 230 (!) years, and from 70% to 80% of analysts expected that, having fought off this bottom, the pound will be able to return to the zone of 1.2725-1.3025 during April-May. So far, this forecast is justified: the pair completed the five-day period on the way to the set goal, at the level of 1.2470;

- USD/JPY. The end of March turned out to be favorable for the Japanese currency, whose quotes, as usual, depend on the risk appetite of investors, oil prices and the yield of US government bonds.
The forecast, which was supported by the majority of experts, turned out to be correct by 99.9% if not by 100%. According to it, the pair should have turned south and headed to the 107.00-107.70 zone. This happened in fact: after making several attempts to break through the resistance of 111.60, the bulls gave up, and the bears very quickly lowered the pair by 385 points – to the level of 107.75, near which – at the level of 107.95 – it ended the trading session;

– cryptocurrencies. We suggested in the previous forecast that Bitcoin quotes can be used as a leading indicator for forecasts for major dollar pairs. The main idea was that a lull in the crypto market during financial storms can be a harbinger of a trend change or a strong correction for EUR/USD. According to the voiced theory, the transition of the BTC/USD pair to a flat state in the conditions of continued over-volatility in other markets may indicate that the dollar has reached critical values, and large speculators do not know what to do, whether to increase dollar assets by selling BTC, or, on the contrary, to convert fiat into cryptocurrency.
Of course, this is only a theory, with many reservations, but last week it was confirmed: the charts show a flat in the crypto market and a predicted sharp reversal of the trend for EUR/USD.
Bitcoin has risen in price by less than 9% over the past seven days, Ripple (XRP/USD) – by 10%, Litecoin (LTC/USD) – by 3%, and the growth of Ethereum (ETH/USD) was less than 1%.
By the way, Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin recently presented a roadmap for the development of ETH for the next 5-10 years. In addition, he called for the development of decentralized bridges between Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies and for the creation of a "real" decentralized exchange (DEX) for the exchange of BTC and ETH. However, judging by the Ethereum quotes, his ideas have not yet found a response in the hearts and wallets of investors.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. After winning back 50% of the losses of the previous two weeks, the pair eventually returned to the Pivot Point 1.1100 zone, around which it has been rotating for many months, starting from the end of July 2019. This suggests that the market does not know what else to expect from the coronavirus and from the governments that have entered the fight against it.
On the one hand, we can observe an avalanche-like increase in the number of diseases in the United States, and it is unknown whether President Trump and his administration will have the strength and ability not just to take control, but to seriously improve the situation. A significant part of the money that the Fed is pouring into the country's economy goes to pay unemployment benefits and one-time payments to individuals who... are quarantined and can't spend it. As a result, these funds will not reach the real sector of the economy in the near future. US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin exudes optimism, saying that the current situation is not yet a financial crisis. However, the head of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, already agrees that the US economy "may well be in recession", and the agenda is now dictated by the virus. And it is possible that a severe recession may turn into a depression at some point.
On the other hand, the situation in Europe is no better. The results of the EU summit held on Thursday, March 26, were described by some analysts as "simply terrible". The representatives of the countries did not manage to reach a common opinion, the idea of European "corona bonds" is buried (at least for a while), and the ECB is having a hard time maintaining stability in the euro area. According to a number of experts, such disunity of the EU member states severely limits the opportunities for strengthening the European currency.
At the moment, the graphical analysis points to the north, the vast majority of indicators look in the same direction, and only 15% of the oscillators on H4 and D1 give signals about the EUR/USD pair being overbought. 
Among experts, the majority (60%) is also set to continue the growth of the pair, while the remaining 40% voted for the fall. Resistance levels (taking into account current volatility) are 1.1240, 1.1365 and 1.1500, support levels are 1.1000, 1.0850, 1.0775 and 1.0635. Well, two seemingly unattainable goals (although, at present, everything is possible): bullish – 1.1800, bearish – 1.0550.
As for the release of macroeconomic indicators, data on unemployment and the consumer market in Germany and the Eurozone as a whole will be available on Monday, March 30 and Tuesday, March 31. And the second half of the week will bring us a whole avalanche of data on the US labor market. Let's just say that in all cases, the forecasts are disappointing. For example, the number of jobs created outside the us agricultural sector (NFP) is expected to fall from plus 273K to minus 123K;

- GBP/USD. Assessing the prospects for the British economy, chief economist at IHS Markit, Chris Williamson, almost repeated what Jerome Powell said about the American. "The onset of a recession of unprecedented scale in modern history is becoming more likely," – this is the prophecy of Williamson. And even the UK's exit from the EU does not have such a negative impact on the economy as COVID-19.
In this context, despite the medium-term forecast, 60% of analysts expect a downward trend reversal and the beginning of a new phase of the pound's fall in the next week. If we talk about technical analysis, the H4 timeframe is dominated by green, but 20% of the oscillators are already in the overbought zone. The signals of oscillators and trend indicators on D1 can be described as multidirectional.
Graphical analysis on both timeframes supports the bearish forecast but assumes that the pair will stay in the range of 1.2250-1.2600 for some time before going down sharply.
The resistance levels are 1.2600, 1.2750, 1.3025, 1.3200 and 1.3515. Support levels are 1.2250, 1.2200, 1.1800 and 1.1450;

- USD/JPY. The pair ended the last week near the strong support/resistance level of 108.00, and most analysts (60%), as in the case of EUR/USD and GBP/USD, expect a trend reversal and subsequent strengthening of the dollar. If this happens, the pair has quite a lot of chances to still overcome the 111.60-112.00 mark and rise another 100 points higher. The nearest strong resistance is in the area of 109.70-110.00.
The remaining 40% of experts, supported by graphical analysis on H4, side with the bears. Support is in the zones 106.70-107.25 and 104.70-105.00, further targets are 103.00 and the March 09 low in the area of 101.00;

– cryptocurrencies. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index moved just 3 points over the week, from 9 to 12, and still indicates the presence of a strong fear in the market. At the same time, the number of requests for the word "Bitcoin" in the search engines Baidu and Google has grown significantly over the past month, and most users are interested in buying cryptocurrency. So, the number of requests increased by 138% over the past month in the Baidu search engine, and according to Google Trends, the growth was 57%.
As usual, the growth of the reference cryptocurrency is predicted by all sorts of crypto gurus, especially since now they have a powerful ally in the person of the COVID-19 coronavirus. So, the well-known analyst Joseph Young expressed confidence in the positive impact on Bitcoin of the measures taken by the US Federal Reserve to stimulate the American economy. "The Fed endlessly prints money to pump the markets — this is good for Bitcoin. The devaluation of the dollar in the long run is good for Bitcoin. The short-term prospects may be bleak for this cryptocurrency, but the long-term outlook remains very bright, " he said.
Mike Novogratz, the founder of Galaxy Digital, also agrees with Young. He is confident that the global economic crisis triggered by the coronavirus pandemic will be the time of Bitcoin's breakthrough. "Bitcoin will remain volatile for the next few months, but the macroeconomic backdrop is what it was created for. This year should be and will be the year of BTC," the billionaire said.
Philip Salter, Operating Director of Genesis Mining, joins this chorus of voices. He is convinced that the deepening economic crisis will lead to an increase in the popularity of Bitcoin as a tool for hedging the risks of the banking system. "If the development of the economic crisis can be prevented, there will be no major changes to Bitcoin. However, if there is a real collapse, the interest in the first cryptocurrency will take off. The more skepticism about the old economy, the more interest in bitcoin, " the top manager of this popular cloud mining service shared his thoughts.
As for the nearest forecasts, the well-known trader Ton Weiss is sure that with the current Bitcoin quotes, the probability of falling below the recent low of $3800 is 20-25%. The first cryptocurrency will have even less chance of collapsing to such levels if it overcomes the $6800 level - just 15%. "Going above the $6800 level will give me 85% confidence that we will not go below this level," -Weiss States. In general, 55% of experts expect that the BTC/USD pair will reach the $7,500-8,000 zone within the next few weeks. The remaining 45% of analysts, on the contrary, predict a fall in the pair. In their opinion, BTC/USD will once again try to test the support of $5,700 and, if successful, will again be at the level of $5,000.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin

https://nordfx.com/

 
First, a review of last week’s events:
 
- EUR/USD. The coronavirus pandemic continues to drive global markets. The oil wars between Saudi Arabia and Russia, which, of course, do not do without the active intervention of the United States, add to the nervousness. This country, whose shale oil is another target of attacks from Russia, may now act as a mediator in the price battle between the Saudis and the Russians.
Covid-19 has dealt a severe blow to the American economy, but the economies of other countries are suffering even greater losses. Since Thursday, March 18, the situation has been somewhat stabilized, the price of Brent oil, as well as the NASDAQ and S&P500 indexes have shown a slight increase. As for the dollar, it has been growing continuously for two weeks in a row, and this period can be called the best for it since the 2008 crisis. Since March 09, the US currency has strengthened against the euro by more than 800 points, while the dollar index has grown by more than 3.3%. The US Federal Reserve, which lowered the interest rate from 1.25% to 0.25% on Monday, has reopened swap lines for Central banks in many countries since Thursday, which, together with the mediation mission in the oil war, should somewhat calm the markets. Although, it is unlikely that anyone will undertake to give any guarantees here.   
It is very difficult to analyze the situation now, standard techniques almost do not work, but the majority of experts (55%), supported by 85% of oscillators and trend indicators on H4, gave a correct forecast last week, predicting a further fall in the EUR/USD pair. However, the reality exceeded all expectations: experts named the February low of 1.0750 as the final goal, but the fall was even deeper and the pair reached the local bottom 100 points lower, and ended the five-day period at 1.0695;
 
- GBP/USD. The British currency has never fallen so low! 230 years ago, in 1791, the pound cost $4.555, in 1900 - $4.864, in 2000 - $1.515, on March 20, 2020 it was worth only $1.141. When we set the target for the pound to fall to 1.1960, we warned that this might not be the limit yet, and we were right. The weekly low was recorded at 1.1409. And if the pound lost about 1,900 points on June 23, 2016, following the results of the Brexit referendum, the GBP/USD pair has fallen by almost 1,800 points over the past two weeks. The latest downward push was facilitated by the news that the Bank of England is reducing the rate from 0.25% to 0.10% and expanding the quantitative easing program by ?200 billion. As for the final chord of last week, it sounded at the level of 1.1635;
     
- USD/JPY. The forecast for this pair as a whole also turned out to be correct. Here, almost 70% of analysts voted that the Japanese currency would give up its positions, the pair would pass through the 108.30-109.75 zone like a knife through butter and reach the 112.00-112.40 level. Experts named the next 1-2 months as the deadline, but the pair passed the main part of this path in just a week, reaching the height of 111.50 at maximum and ending the trading session on the horizon of 110.70;

– cryptocurrencies. If the movement of EUR/USD in recent weeks repeats the movements on the charts of Brent, NASDAQ or S&P500 almost exactly, the BTC/USD pair seems to live quite an independent life. When the dollar plummeted in the week from February 24 to March 01, Bitcoin fell with it. From 02 to 08 March, the dollar continued to fall, while Bitcoin, in contrast, behaved quite calmly and even showed a small increase. Then, in the period from 09 to 15 March, the currency trend turned 180 degrees, the dollar began to grow no less rapidly, and the price of Bitcoin fell down, which could be explained by the fact that in the conditions of the growing crisis, people are dumping cryptocurrencies, converting them into real currency assets. And here is the week from March 16 to 22: the dollar still continues to grow, and Bitcoin first goes flat, and then even shows a small increase.
What does this mean?
We dismiss the option about BTC as a safe haven asset, which was so actively promoted by all sorts of crypto gurus. In just one month from February 12 to March 13, the main cryptocurrency lost 58% in price, dropping from $10,340 to $4,300. On some exchanges, the drop was even greater – up to $3,815 and reached 63%. Bitcoin lost up to half of its value in just one day from March 12 to 13, dragging the entire crypto market down with it, including such top altcoins as Ethereum (ETH/USD), Litecoin (LTC/USD) and Ripple (XRP/USD). Quite a safe haven!
But the use of the BTC/USD pair as a leading indicator is worth thinking about. Of course, this is still only a theory, but it has certain grounds. The transition of BTC/USD to a flat state in the conditions of continued super-volatility in other markets suggests that major players do not know what to do at the moment – buy or sell their crypto assets, and this may be a warning signal about a possible trend change (or a strong correction) for EUR/USD and other major dollar pairs.
As for the past week, the local low for Bitcoin was fixed at $4,465, and the high at $6,900 per coin. At the end of Friday, March 20, the market capitalization of Bitcoin rose from $91.459 billion to $103.590 billion, and the quotes of the BTC/USD pair are at the level of $6,140.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. In a truly universal crisis, the dollar has shown that it is it, not the euro or the yen, that is the most attractive protective asset for investors. Will it retain this status, and will it continue to grow?
On the one hand, the US Federal reserve has greatly narrowed its room for maneuver by lowering the rate to 0.25%, flooding the market with cheap liquidity and lending $1.42 trillion to banks every week. The growth of unemployment puts pressure on the dollar as well: instead of forecasted 9K, the number of new applications for benefits increased to 70K. California, Texas, New York and Pennsylvania have closed all the secondary businesses, and in the aggregate, these states provide up to 35% of US GDP. Coordinated actions of the G7 countries and Central banks of other countries can also hit the US currency if they simultaneously start to get rid of the dollar mass.
On the other hand, there remains President Donald Trump's stimulus package, which is likely to receive congressional support. And, most importantly, the economic situation in other countries is even worse than in the United States.
If you look at the charts of last Thursday and the first half of Friday, you can decide that the markets have started to calm down, the EUR/USD pair has reached the bottom, and it is time to open long positions on it. But the end of the working week dealt another blow to the bulls: in half a day, the euro gave up all the positions it had won back, returning to weekly lows. And this makes us think that the dollar's quotes have not yet reached their peak, and the pair's downtrend may continue.
Here again, much depends on success in the fight against the coronavirus. So far, 100% of the trend indicators and 85% of the oscillators on H4 and D1 are colored red. The remaining 15% of the oscillators are in the oversold zone.
As for the forecasts of analysts, it was not possible to collect their opinions in any specific forecast for the next week. But when switching to larger time frames, bull supporters get a fairly significant advantage: 60% of experts expect the pair to grow during the month, and 75%¬- during the quarter. The goal is to return to the 1.1000-1.1240 zone, the nearest resistance is in the 1.0800 zone.
The nearest support level, of course, is around 1.0600, and the next one is 100 points lower. The main goal for the bears is the 2016-17 low at the level of 1.0350, after which the path to the parity of the dollar and the euro 1.0000 will be opened;
         
- GBP/USD. In contrast to the euro, since March 18, the British pound has stabilized in the side channel 1.1450-1.1800 and is moving along the Pivot Point 1.1625. The channel width of 350 points may seem too large to some, but at present, when the daily volatility of the pair exceeds 500-600 points, this is not so much.
The majority of analysts (65%) hope that nothing extraordinary will happen in the coming week, and the pound will stay in the channel indicated above. At the same time, 70% to 80% of them expect that the pound will be able to return to the 1.2725-1.3025 zone during April-May. Resistance zones are 1.1800, 1.1875, 1.2125, 1.2325 and 1.2625. Supports are located in the areas of 1.1425, 1.1300 and 1.1200, but these levels are quite conditional, because, recall, the British pound has never fallen so low in the past 230 years;

- USD/JPY. The movements of this pair depend at the present moment, first of all, not on the yen, but on the dollar. The pair goes where it goes. The main factors that can affect the quotes of the US currency have been described above. In the meantime, the pair has won back all that it lost in the period from February 24 to March 09, and now  the score is tied: for two weeks, 1000 points down, then, just for two weeks, 1000 points back. And now 55% of brokers are waiting for the upcoming week to reverse the trend and reduce the pair to at least the 108.50-110.00 zone. When switching to a monthly time frame, the number of bear supporters increases to 65%. The next target zone is 107.00-107.70.
Supporters of the US currency have the opposite goal: first to raise the pair to the level of 112.25 yen per dollar, then 100 points higher. The goal is a 2018 high of 114.55;

– cryptocurrencies. The Bitcoin Crypto Fear & Greed Index is almost exactly where it was a week ago, at the level of 9 points out of 100 possible. On the one hand, this is bad and suggests that investors are in a state of great fear. On the other hand, maybe this is a good thing, since the indicator did not fall to zero, but froze in one place – maybe the "lion" is preparing to jump, and we might soon see an impressive growth of this cryptocurrency?
This is possible because, on the one hand, thanks to the US Federal Reserve's easing program, there is an excess of dollar liquidity in the market, and on the other hand, interest rates on the dollar are now close to zero. And players who hit the jackpot on the growth of the dollar in the last two weeks may well transfer some of the cash to crypto assets.
45% of experts who expect to see the BTC/USD pair in the $7,500 zone agree with this development. The same number of analysts expect the pair to fall to the level of $5,000-5,500. The remaining 10% could not make up their minds about their prognosis, citing the unpredictability of the situation with the Covid-19 coronavirus.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin

https://nordfx.com/

 
First, a review of last week’s events:
 
First, a review of last week’s events:
 
- EUR/USD. That's it! The world economy is no longer run by governments, banks, or corporations. The economy is reigned by only one "person" named Covid-19. The coronavirus pandemic has caused panic on the stock exchanges, a collapse in oil prices, a drop in production, and border closures. Humanity is scared, not knowing what to expect after a week, a month, six months. Schools and universities, restaurants and cafes, parks and stadiums are empty, and people are advised not to go out on the streets at all. Food and toilet paper are disappearing from supermarkets. All sorts of mass events are canceled, and a joke is circulating on social networks that the conference on the fight against the coronavirus was canceled because of...the coronavirus. President Trump's decision to close the US borders and ban the entry of Europeans sent markets into shock. EuroSTOXX50 futures fell 5.57%, while DAX30 futures fell 4.22%. US stock indexes suffered the biggest losses in the past 33 years. The main indexes of Japan, Australia, India, Hong Kong, South Korea, and other countries reached multi-year lows.
Recall that on March 04, the effect of an exploding bomb was produced by the decision taken at the emergency meeting of the US Federal Reserve to lower the key interest rate from 1.75% to 1.25%. Against this background, the EUR/USD pair soared by more than 640 points, coming close to the 1.1500 mark.
Unlike its American counterparts, the ECB left the rate unchanged at its meeting on Thursday, March 12. Bank Governor Christine Lagarde said the Eurozone banking system is stable and does not require a rate cut. (It is already negative and is -0.5%). But the market was much more impressed by Ms Lagarde's words that the ECB should not solve the problem of narrow spreads. Investors remembered the debt crisis triggered by rate hike in 2011, and both European stocks and the European currency immediately flew down, finding a bottom only on the horizon of 1.1055.
If last year the weekly range of fluctuations of the pair was barely approaching 200 points, this year EUR/USD easily overcomes this value in just a few hours. Last week, at the maximum, the dollar won back about 440 points from the euro. Then a correction followed, and the pair ended the five-day period near the 1.1100 level. This result, in our opinion, indicates that the markets are completely confused, as the pair once again returned to the Pivot Point zone, along which it has been moving since May 2019.
As for the forecast given a week ago, 40% of analysts voted that the pair would reach the 1.1450-1.1500 zone then. And it did it on Monday, March 09. The majority of experts (60%) voted for the pair's return to the range of 1.1000-1.1100, where, as mentioned above, it eventually returned. So, both were 100% right. is it a paradox? No, the coronavirus just decided that;

- GBP/USD. There are two main factors weighing on the pound. The first is the confusion in the oil market and the fall in prices for this energy carrier, which is closely correlated with the British currency. The second is the negative dynamics of the debt market. The yield on 10-year government bonds in the UK continues to decline in comparison with similar securities in the US and Germany. But if the bond yield just falls, the pound quotes are carried like an avalanche into the abyss. What else can you call a 900-point drop in just 5 days?
As a result, the pair reached the values of the first decade of October 2019 and ended the trading session where a week ago the bulls could not even imagine in their nightmares: at 1.2280;

- USD/JPY. The dollar has been rising since Monday evening, March 09, against the euro, the pound, and the yen. Investors are also getting rid of gold, with which the pair has an inverse correlation. As a result, having pushed off from the support of 101.17on Monday, on Friday, March 13, the pair was in the same place where it was on Friday, March 06 – at the level of 108.00. There is nothing strange in such a figure in terms of graphical analysis. The only striking thing is the timing and scope of fluctuations: – first 700 points down in 5.5 days, then the same amount up in 4.5 days. What can you do about it, this is now the new reality;

– cryptocurrencies. "Cui prodest?”, - said the ancient Romans, which means: "Look for who benefits." And it was the benefit for all crypto-gurus, crypto-millionaires and other owners of large volumes of cryptocurrencies. After all, it was they who had been convincing investors and traders that bitcoin, and with it the rest of the crypto market, will again soar to unprecedented heights in the near future. "Bitcoin has become a great tool for hedging currency risks and will soon replace the dollar!"- they had been shouting, urging everyone to invest in crypto-coins, thereby making them richer and richer. So what?
Talking about the spells of these "priests", we constantly warned that before investing money, it is necessary to correctly assess the situation, and, perhaps, instead of buy, open a position on sell – as the BTC/USD pair can not only grow rapidly, but also fall even more rapidly. Which is what happened last week.
If you believe the apologists of bitcoin, it was conceived as a lifeline at the time of the stock market collapse, falling exchange rates and the destruction of economic ties. We are seeing all these misfortunes at the moment, but instead of dragging investors up, getting more expensive against the dollar, Bitcoin is sinking them even faster. 
In just one month from February 12 to March 13, the main cryptocurrency lost 58% in price, dropping from $10,340 to $4,300. On some exchanges, the drop was even greater – up to $3,815 and reached 63%.
Bitcoin lost up to half of its value in just one day from March 12 to 13, dragging the entire crypto market down with it, including such top altcoins as Ethereum (ETH/USD), litecoin (LTC/USD) and Ripple (XRP/USD). The situation had somewhat stabilized by the evening of Friday, March 13, and the BTC/USD pair rose to the level of $5,600. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index is only 10 points out of 100 possible, which means that the market is not just afraid, but terrified.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. The struggle of governments and regulators for the economies of their countries continues. The ECB did not cut interest rates but announced a 60% increase in the quantitative easing (QE) program, which will amount to €120 billion in 2019. For its part, the US Federal reserve is flooding the market with cheap money, under pressure from President Trump who is eager to be re-elected for the second term. The US has launched a short-term lending program since last week, under which the Fed is ready to lend $1.42 trillion to banks every week. This has never happened in the history of the United States. This week, banks have already received the first tranche at 0.255% per annum. This suggests that, with a high probability, the rate on the dollar will be reduced by at least 0.50% at the Fed meeting next week.
This balance of power is not in favor of the dollar. However, a small margin (55%) is still on the side of bears among the experts, they are supported by 85% of oscillators and trend indicators on H4. The remaining 45% of analysts believe that the dollar will still lose its position, and the pair will again go north. This is agreed by 15% of oscillators on H4, which give signals about the pair being oversold.
Graphical analysis on H4 shows a sharp decline in the pair to the level of 1.0950, and then its growth first to the height of 1.1100, and then 100 points higher.
However, with the ongoing coronavirus panic, super-turbulence in the stock and currency markets, and surging oil prices, any forecasts can turn to dust in a second. And this is proved by the chaos that reigns in the indicator readings on D1, where the green, red and gray colors are mixed.
The main support zones are 1.1065, 1.1000, 1.0850 and the February low 1.0750. The resistance zones – 1.1175, 1.1240, 1.1350 and 1.1500;

- GBP/USD. It is clear that 100% of the trend indicators at the end of the weekly session are looking down. However, the situation is somewhat different among oscillators – 20% of them on the H4 timeframe and 15% on D1 are already in the oversold zone, which indicates an imminent correction or reversal of the trend up. Graphical analysis on D1 supports this development as well. According to its readings, the pair can reach the bottom near the October 2019 low of 1.2200, and then turn around and go north – first to the resistance of 1.2425, and then to the height of 1.2565. At the same time, given the range of fluctuations in recent weeks, it makes sense to designate two more support levels – 1.2065 and 1.1960, and two resistance levels – 1.2725 and 1.2870. Although, perhaps, this is not the limit.
As for the opinions of experts, it was not possible to form one for the upcoming week. But in the forecast for the next 1-2 months, the number of supporters of the pair's growth is a clear majority-75%, the goal is to rise to the level of 1.2900-1.3100;
 
- USD/JPY. If in the medium-term forecast for GBP/USD, most analysts voted for the growth of the pound and the fall of the dollar, the situation is the opposite with respect to the yen. Here, 60-70% of experts believe that in the next 1-2 months, the Japanese currency will lose its position, the pair will pass through the 108.30-109.75 zone like a knife through butter and reach the 112.00-112.40 level. The next target for the bulls is 200 points higher.
Note that in the coming week, in addition to the US Federal Reserve's decision on the interest rate, we are waiting for similar decisions by the Bank of Japan on Thursday March 19 and the People's Bank of China on Friday March 20. Both of these regulators announced their intention to support commercial banks and companies in their countries. And if fluctuations in yuan rates do not surprise the market, a reduction in the yen rate will be a big surprise for investors.
If, when the dollar rate is lowered, the yen rate remains at the same negative level of -0.1%, it is possible that the scales will tilt in favor of the Japanese currency, and the USD/JPY pair will go down again, breaking through the supports of 105.90, 104.50 and 103.15 one after another. The bears' goal is to return to last week's low and try to test the 101.00 level.
And, of course, it will be necessary to closely monitor the current yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds and oil prices, which largely determine the Japanese yen quotes;

– cryptocurrencies. "What was that?"- many traders and investors ask themselves, looking back at the events of the past week. Was it the beginning of the end? Or a game of big speculators, after which Bitcoin will more than recoup all losses? Or, perhaps, people just did not fully believe in a bright crypto future, and in a critical situation related to the coronavirus, they simply preferred to get rid of virtual wealth, exchanging it for time-tested, quite tangible dollars.
The forecasts of the surveyed experts at the moment look rather timid and modest. According to 65% of them, the BTC/USD pair can reach the $6,000-6,500 zone next week. The remaining 45% can see it around $5,000.
But further on the situation for the bulls looks somewhat worse. Only 20% of experts believe that Bitcoin will be able to confidently gain a foothold above $7,000 by the end of March, and another 20% predict the coin will fall to the $3,000-3,500 zone. The remaining 60% are in no hurry to give any forecasts at all.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin

https://nordfx.com/

 
First, a review of last week’s events:
 
- EUR/USD. It seems that now one can ignore the macroeconomic indicators, which previously not only had an impact on the quotes, but also could reverse trends by 180 degrees. The situation in the financial markets has been completely dominated by the coronavirus for many weeks on the run, which now affects not only the health of people, but also the actions of governments and Central banks.
Global regulators are massively lowering interest rates. The effect of a bombshell was produced by the decision of the US Federal reserve, taken at an emergency meeting convened for the first time since the 2008 crisis, to lower the key interest rate from 1.75% up to 1.25%. This decision was the outcome of a teleconference with the participation of Finance Ministers and Central bankers of the G7 States on monetary policy in the face of the coronavirus Covid-19.
Come from war, you belong to war, and a lull on the fronts of the fight against this infection is not yet expected. The amplitude of fluctuations of the basic currency pairs breaks all the trading strategies created in a quiet and calm 2019. The DXY dollar index lost 1.7% over the past week, while it had been not far from 3-year highs just two weeks before.
Starting from January 01 to February 20, 2020, the dollar rose against the euro by 460 points, which is an impressive figure in itself. But onwards and upwards: having made a U-turn, the EUR/USD pair has soared by more than 640 points in just the last two weeks! And all these jumps, both up and down, took place without any serious corrections, knocking out first the bulls, and now the bears. The height of only one daily "candle" on Friday, March 06, was more than 140 points.
It should be noted that in general, the forecast given last week by the majority of our experts (60%) and supported by 70% of the indicators was correct. The new year's high at 1.1240 was named as the goal the pair was supposed to reach. However, on the last day of the trading session, against the background of an 18% collapse in the yield of 10-year us bonds, the pair did overcome this resistance, reaching a peak of 1.1355, and it ended the five-day period at 1.1300;

- GBP/USD. Surprisingly, the fact is: no matter what happens in the world in general, and in the UK in particular, the GBP/USD pair repeatedly returns to the iconic support/resistance zone of 1.3000 for the fifth month in a row. This was also the case last week: after finding the local bottom at 1.2735, the pair flew up almost 300 points and finished at 1.3030. This fully confirmed the forecast given by the majority (65%) of experts who predicted the pair's return to the 1.3000-1.3070 zone;

- USD/JPY. The flight from the dollar and the growing demand for hedging currencies allowed the yen to demonstrate a phenomenal two-week growth of 720 points, i.e. by 6.4%. However, analysts' forecasts were even bolder. They expected that, supported by the coronavirus, the pair will break through the support of 107.50, 106.65, 105.65 one after another and approach the August 2019 low in the area of 104.45. The supports were broken indeed, however, the pair failed to achieve its goal: the local low was recorded on Friday, March 06 at 104.98, and the final chord sounded at 105.35;

– cryptocurrencies. We doubted in the last review that Bitcoin has actually become the same hedge asset as the euro or, even more so, the yen, as many crypto gurus have tried to prove to everyone. As it turns out, we are not alone in our doubts. Billionaire, former Wall Street banker and Bitcoin enthusiast Michael Novogratz was surprised to find that Bitcoin quotes were rolling down at the same time as the dollar and stock indices in the last decade of February. "How did BTC stop being an asset for hedging risks and start trading as high-risk securities?  Novogratz exclaimed on Twitter. "It hurts!"". In his opinion, those traders who lost on the stock market started shorting Bitcoin in an attempt to catch up, and eventually drove the quotes down.
In fairness, it should be noted that the reference cryptocurrency has tried to restore its reputation last week. However, it failed: having lost more than $2,000 in price over the previous two weeks, it only won $730 back. This success against the background of the explosive growth of the euro and the yen looks quite modest. So it's probably too early to talk about Bitcoin as a truly protective asset.
As for such top altcoins as Ethereum (ETH/USD), Litecoin (LTC/USD) and Ripple (XRP/USD), they have traditionally followed in the wake of the BTC/USD pair. The capitalization of the crypto market in the past week has remained almost unchanged: at the level of $256 billion, the Bitcoin Crypto Fear & Greed Index has also almost frozen in place: the drop from 40 to 39 points is simply not worth taking into account.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. 100% of the trend indicators on H4 and D1 are colored green. But 25% of the oscillators on D1 indicate that the pair is overbought, which can be a strong signal for a downtrend reversal or a serious correction. Graphical analysis on H4 looks down as well. (Although, one must say, coronavirus hardly pays attention to divergence and RSI, Stochastic or MACD readings).
As for fundamental analysis, at the moment the situation looks ambiguous. On the one hand, the probability of another rate cut at the next meeting of the US Federal Reserve on March 18 is close to 100%. Moreover, this reduction may become the next stage of the cycle, as a result of which the rate will be at the level of 0.5% or even lower at the end of the second quarter – President Donald Trump calls for lowering the rate to 0%, providing additional liquidity to private banks and easing monetary policy as much as possible.
Falling interest rates play against the dollar. And then, once again, the yield on 10-year US bonds may fall. But, on the other hand, the situation in Europe is even worse. First, the Eurozone economy is much more strongly correlated with the Chinese economy. And secondly, if the Fed still has room for maneuver and further rate cuts, the ECB has almost no such space. The deposit rate for commercial banks in euros is already in the red and is -0.5%.   
A representative of the ECB admitted the possibility of further reduction of already negative interest rates last week. However, whether the European mega-regulator will decide to take such a step may become clear after its meeting on Thursday, March 12.
As for analysts' forecasts, according to most of them, as the situation with the coronavirus resolves, the situation on the financial markets will stabilize, and the EUR/USD pair will return to the range of 1.1000-1.1100. 60% of experts voted for this result in the weekly perspective, 70% in the monthly perspective, and 80% in the medium – term perspective. The nearest strong supports are 1.1240 and 1.1175.
40% of analysts have voted that the dollar will continue to fall in the coming week and the pair will reach the 1.1450-1.1500 zone;

- GBP/USD. The pair has once again returned to the medium-term Pivot Point 1.3000 zone. Graphical analysis on H4 predicts the pair's movement in the side channel 1.2860-1.3070 for the next few days, while on D1 the range of weekly fluctuations is naturally wider:1.2760-1.3170. But in both cases, the pair eventually returns to the 1.3000 horizon.
95% of the trend indicators and 75% of the oscillators on both timeframes look north, but 25% of the oscillators are already in the overbought zone.
As for the experts' forecast for the next week, it is impossible to give someone an advantage – a third of them have voted for the pair's growth, a third for its fall, and a third for a sideways movement. However, when moving to the forecast for the month, the scales are tilted towards the British currency¬ – 60% of analysts believe that the pair will be able to reach the 1.1400-1.1500 zone by the end of March; 

- USD/JPY. It has been repeatedly stated that market fears of the Covid-19 epidemic force investors to redirect cash flows towards protective assets. And here one should pay attention to the dynamics of the Fear Index VIX, which is one of the measures of expectation of stock market volatility. It is generally accepted that if the VIX has reached the 40% mark and continues to grow, the stock exchange has started to panic. So, over the past half-month, this index has grown from 15% to almost 47%. If you add a drop in the dollar to the collapse of US government bonds, it becomes clear that in such a situation, the yen is a big winner. "Country of the rising yen" – that is how many investors now call Japan.
Market fears are also reflected in the readings of technical analysis tools. 100% of trend indicators and 85% of oscillators are now colored red.
The remaining 15% of the oscillators give signals that the pair is oversold. Following them, the majority of experts, supported by graphical analysis, expects the turn of the pair up. It is clear that the trend change to an uptrend is directly related to the success of the fight against Covid-19. Therefore, the forecasts for the coming week are very cautious: only 55% of analysts have voted for the pair's growth here. But the medium-term forecast looks much more optimistic for the dollar: its growth relative to the yen is expected by 80% of experts. The nearest resistance is 107.70, the goal is to return to the 108.25-109.65 echelon.
The support zone is 104.45-105.00. It was at the peak of the aggravation of trade risks that the price rested not only in 2019, but also in 2018. And if the pair manages to break through this support, the path for it will be open to the lows of 2016 in the area of 99.00-101.00; 

– cryptocurrencies. It should be noted that in general, the news background is favorable for Bitcoin. For example, the German Federal Office for Financial Supervision (BaFin) has for the first time recognized the main cryptocurrency as a financial instrument.  And the largest insurance operator Lloyd's of London, together with the start-up Coincover, presented a new solution for insuring cryptocurrencies in hot wallets. According to them, since the beginning of the year, the digital market has started to "warm up", so we should expect a "new wave" of traders and investors. Miners are also not backing down: the hashrate of the Bitcoin network set a new historical record last week, rising to 136 exahashes per second.
All this affects the forecasts of analysts, among whom optimism reigns as well. 65% of them expect the BTC/USD pair to grow to the $9,500-10,000 zone in the near future, 10% have taken a neutral position, and only 25% expect the pair to fall to the $8,250 horizon.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin

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Bitcoin: although this currency is virtual, many people earn and have already earned real millions of dollars thanks to it. More than 1,000 people have become owners of fortunes with six, seven, eight zeros, and five people have become billionaires. Moreover, one does not need to work until a very old age: according to Forbes, the average age of crypto millionaires is only 42.

The past (2010-2019):
Turning 11 dollars into 1,000,000

On May 1, 2017, one bitcoin (BTC) cost 1,600 US dollars, and on December 10 of the same year, it was already worth almost 20 thousand! Or rather, 19.187 dollars. It is easy to calculate that the owners of this cryptocurrency were able to make a profit of 1100% in eight and a half months. The events of the next 2018 were called by NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huan by an apt word "crypto hungover", and the well-known financial strategist from Wall Street Tom Lee called them "crypto winter". The price of this virtual currency quickly flew down and, a year later, on December 9, 2018, it reached its low of 3,215 dollars, "shrinking" six times.
Various forecasts had been given for the past year: from a complete collapse of Bitcoin to the rise to the $100,000 mark. And now we can call the exact figure – this main cryptocurrency cost $7,200 per coin at the end of 2019, having risen in price more than twice in a year.
"Bitcoin, despite all the rate hikes, rose by 110% in 12 months, - says the NordFX broker leading analyst John Gordon, - the S&P500 index rose by 22.8%, and gold added 19% over the same period. The average yield on dollar bank deposits is only 0.5-1.5%."
According to CNN calculations, Bitcoin is the most profitable asset in the last 10 years. 1 dollar invested in this cryptocurrency at the beginning of the decade is now worth $90,000. This means that if one invested some 11 dollars in BTC in 2010, now they could become a millionaire. And although the stock market has been under the influence of bulls all these years, other assets fade in comparison with Bitcoin, - $1 invested in the shares of American companies turned into $3.46. This may be an impressive growth for the stock market, but for the crypto market, such results are insignificant, just compare $90,000 and $3.46.


Future (2021-2023):
Turning 8,000 dollars into 250,000

Bitcoin is certainly the main cryptocurrency in the world, leading by a huge margin. Analysts at Canaccord Genuity believe that by 2021, its rate will reach $20 thousand, the head of the BitMEX exchange Arthur Hayes calls $50 thousand, and their colleagues from Galaxy suggest that this is not the limit, and under certain conditions, the main cryptocurrency may rise in price to several hundred thousand dollars. The well-known venture investor Tim Draper supports his colleagues, he believes that the capitalization of Bitcoin will be 5% of the entire world economy by 2023, that is, it will approach $5 trillion ($250 thousand for 1 coin).
But all this is in the future. And all these are predictions that, as we know, can come true, or may, on the contrary, be empty speculation. What about now, the real present?

Our days (2020, January 01-14):
Plus 1056% in two weeks

Let's look at the Bitcoin exchange rate for the first two weeks of 2020 and calculate how much an ordinary person could earn by investing in this cryptocurrency.

Option 1. So, on January 01, its quotes were $7,200, and on January 14 - $8,800. And if you had bought it on a crypto exchange, you would have earned $1,600. That is, your profit would be 22% in just 2 weeks! Is it a lot? Pretty much so! You are unlikely to have received even $5 on a bank deposit over the same time. And here, it is $1600! But even this profit of yours could have become many times greater if you had taken advantage of margin trading.

Option 2. "In order to open a transaction, and, simply put, buy one Bitcoin," says John Gordon of NordFX – "our clients only need to have $150 in their account, and we will credit the rest. This happens automatically, without any collateral and paperwork, you just need to open a trading account with us online."
And what happens in this case? It seems to be the same as for Option 1. If you buy Bitcoin on January 01 and sell it on the 14th, you get a profit of $1600. But at the same time, you actually invest in the transaction not $7,200, but almost fifty times less, only $150. Accordingly, your profit will be almost fifty times more, that is, 1056% in two weeks!

What else one should wish, you would say. Just open an account, buy Bitcoins and wait for them to make you a millionaire. Indeed, the prospects for this cryptocurrency, according to a number of experts, look quite rosy now. However, if you look at the Bitcoin quotes, you can see that it is capable of not only growing rapidly, but also of falling rapidly. And what should one do in this case?

Option 3. Another advantage of working with professional brokers like NordFX is that they allow their clients to earn not only on the growth of assets such as Bitcoin, but also on their decline. For this, it is enough to open a sell position with the broker or, in other words, to bet that the price of this cryptocurrency will go down. And if it turns out to be correct, you will get a considerable profit as well.
Let's have a look again at the first two weeks of 2020. During this time, the value of Bitcoin not only grew, but also fell at certain points. So, in the period from January 08 to 09, in just a few hours, it fell from $8,440 to $7,675, that is, Bitcoin lost $785 in price. If you had opened a sell position at that time, you would have earned the same $785, and invested only $150. In other words, you would have increased your capital almost five times in one day.

"In fact, it is unlikely that anyone can open and close transactions with 100 percent accuracy," John Gordon comments on the examples above. – This requires knowledge, experience, and intuition. Strong nerves are also of use, especially if the price goes against you. Many people lose their money. But the fact that you can get huge profits from trading cryptocurrencies is an undeniable fact. Thousands of people who, starting from scratch, were able to earn huge fortunes in the hundreds of thousands and millions of dollars is a clear proof of this. So, the virtual market is a way to real money. Big money».


Short Information on NordFX

NordFX is an international brokerage company with more than 10 years of successful work in financial markets. The number of accounts opened in the company by clients from almost 190 countries exceeds 1,250,000 today.
Since 2008, NordFX has been awarded more than 50 prestigious professional awards, including 5 awards for outstanding achievements in crypto trading:

– Best Cryptocurrency Broker 2019 (Fxdailyinfo Awards)
– Best Crypto 2018 Broker (MasterForex-V Expo)
– Most Trusted CryptoCurrency Broker 2018 (Global Brands Awards)
– Best broker for Trading Cryptocurrencies 2018 (International Business Magazine)
– Best Broker In Asia Crypto 2017 (Forex Awards Ratings).

https://nordfx.com/

 
First, a review of last week’s events:
 
- EUR/USD. The situation in the financial markets is completely under the control of the coronavirus for many weeks in the run. And if many traders in 2019 complained about the lowest volatility of the EUR/USD pair in the history of its existence, the situation has changed dramatically in 2020. Yhe amplitude of its fluctuations exceeded 200 points last week alone, and the growth of the euro on Thursday 27 February was the fastest since May 2018. And all this due to the Covid-19 virus, which causes investors to avoid investing in risky assets, preferring quieter havens.
Global and US stock indices continue their decline, having fallen more than 10% from the February highs. Suffice it to say that only the S&P500 has lost about 15% since February 18. The information that more than 8 thousand people were monitored in California because of the epidemic only increased the panic among investors who are actively getting rid of both American stocks and US dollars.
As a result, thanks to sharply increased demand for funding currencies such as the euro and the yen, the continuous growth of the dollar, which we observed from 01 to 20 February, has finally stopped. And those traders who had enough nerves and money to withstand a drawdown on long positions of 310 points, were able to breathe a sigh of relief. The pair has been growing all week, reaching a local high at 1.1053 on Friday, February 28, followed by a correction and a finish at 1.1030;

- GBP/USD. If the dollar does not feel very well against the background of the coronavirus, the British pound feels even worse against the background of the consequences of Brexit. The bearish forecast, which was supported by the majority of experts (55%), turned out to be absolutely correct: the pair continued to move in the medium-term downward channel and, as expected, after several attempts, broke the February 20 low of 1.2850. Then the fall became a landslide and, after flying for a few hours about 125 points, it found the local bottom at 1.2725. This was followed by a rebound up, and the pair ended the five-day period at 1.2820;

- USD/JPY. The vast majority of analysts (75%) had predicted the growth of the Japanese currency, but no one had expected such a result. The flight from the dollar and the growing demand for hedging currencies allowed the yen to demonstrate a phenomenal growth of 410 points: starting the week at 111.60, the dollar fell to 107.50 on Friday evening, updating the lows of 2020. As for the final chord of the week, after the correction, it sounded in the 108.00 zone;   

– cryptocurrencies. It is possible that the Wall Street old wolf, Warren Buffett, who turned his back on cryptocurrencies with disdain, is right. All sorts of Bitcoin gurus and crypto enthusiasts have recently criticized him, convincing us that BTC has become a reliable asset - a safe haven in which one can safely invest their funds. What do we see in reality?
The euro and the yen have been rising against the dollar all week. And if Bitcoin is a hedge asset as well, its quotes would also have to go up. But it was exactly the opposite. The dollar was flying down, and Bitcoin, along with top altcoins, including Ethereum (ETH/USD), Litecoin (LTC/USD) and Ripple (XRP/USD), were flying down even faster. Having fixed a monthly low of $8.455 on February 28, the BTC/USD pair lost almost 12.5% of its value over the week. The total capitalization of the crypto market decreased by 15%, and the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, froze in a state of "fear", having fallen to the level of 40.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. According to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) analysts' forecasts, the probability of an interest rate cut at the next meeting of the US Federal reserve on March 18 is 90%. (For reference: at the beginning of February, this figure was only 10%). If this happens, we can expect the dollar to fall. Data on the labor market, which will traditionally be published on the first Friday of the month, March 06, can also play against the US currency. Thus, according to forecasts, the NFP indicator may fall from 225K to 176K. On the other hand, the ISM business activity index is likely to stay above the critical 50.0 mark, which is a positive factor. In this situation, it is likely that reports from the front of the fight against coronavirus will continue to determine the quotes of the EUR/USD pair.
At the time of writing this forecast, 60% of experts, supported by 70% of oscillators and trend indicators, look to the north, expecting the pair to grow. The goals are 1.1055, 1.1100, 1.1175 and 1.1240. The opposite view is supported by 40% of analysts and 30% of indicators that are in the overbought zone or colored red. Supports are 1.0950 1.0900, 1.0830 and the February 20 low 1.0777;

- GBP/USD. In contrast to the dollar, the probability of reducing the interest rate on the British pound, on the contrary, falls. According to Bank of England Board member John Cunliffe, who has been responsible for financial stability since 2013, the regulator expects the inflation to rise. Due to the positive dynamics of the labor market and the growth of average wages, the consumer price index may even exceed the target level of 2%. And in such a situation, lowering interest rates is simply not necessary.
In addition to Cunliffe's statements, markets are concerned about what Bank of England Governor Mark Carney will say in his speech on Thursday 05 March. Among the main issues is the reaction of the British regulator to the fall in stock markets due to the coronavirus epidemic. In addition, investors are also interested in the purpose for which the Bank of England is increasing its gold reserves. The UK has recently purchased a record amount of this metal worth $5.33 billion in Russia alone, which is 12 times higher than the usual volume of purchases.
Given the difference in the impact of the Covid-19 epidemic on the US and UK markets, as well as the upcoming reduction in interest rates by the Fed, most experts (65%) prefer bulls, expecting the GBP/USD pair to return to the 1.3000-1.3070 zone, and possibly even 100 points higher. Graphical analysis on D1, as well as 15% of oscillators on H4 and D1 that give signals the pair is oversold, agree with this development.
A minority of analysts (35%), most oscillators (85%), and almost 100% of trend indicators side with the bears;   

- USD/JPY. It is clear that the absolute majority of indicators here are colored red. However, it is already 25% of the oscillators that are in the oversold zone, which may indicate if not a complete reversal of the trend, then at least a strong upward correction. 65% of analysts also expect the pair to rise. The nearest resistance level is 109.25, the nearest target is a return to the zone of 109.65-110.25, the next target is the height of 112.00. It can be achieved by reducing the panic in global stock markets caused by success in the fight against the coronavirus. Over the past week, the number of Covid-19 patients decreased by an average of 1,600 people per day. And in the coming week, the number of cured patients may exceed 50% of the number of cases.
Of course, we would very much like to see the epidemic of this infection go down. But if this does not happen in the next few days, the dollar may continue to fall, and the pair will break through the support of 107.50, 106.65, 105.65 one after another and approach the August 2019 low in the area of 104.45;

– cryptocurrencies. Against the background of space forecasts of his colleagues, the head of the Binance crypto exchange, Changpeng Zhao, behaved interestingly, making a statement that looks more like persuasion. According to him, if Bitcoin does not double in price as a result of the halving, the industry will face big problems. The number of miners will begin to decrease. In addition, the asset risks losing the support of large investors who expect its value to grow. "In May, miners will lose part of their earnings in cryptocurrency terms. Bitcoin should compensate for this event in dollars. If the asset is not able to provide the miners with at least similar conditions, most of the players will simply leave the industry. This cannot be allowed to happen!”, - Zhao convinces his colleagues.
Whether his persuasions will work in the future is unknown, but the majority of experts (45%) are pessimistic so far, expecting a decline in the BTC/USD pair to the $8,000-8,250 zone. There are currently 30% of optimists among analysts. In their opinion, the fall of the last two weeks is just a correction, and we will soon see Bitcoin storm the height of $10,500 once again. As for the remaining quarter of the experts, they have not been able to form an opinion.


Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin

https://nordfx.com/

Trading on the financial markets is becoming more dynamic, and competition is constantly growing, requiring brokers to make non-standard, innovative solutions in a variety of ways. In this situation, it is encouraging that all the main trends in the development of the NordFX broker company in 2019 have received the highest rating from the Forex and crypto communities.

Recall that at the end of last year, NordFX already became:
- "Best Cryptocurrency Broker 2019" according to the Fxdailyinfo portal,
- winner of the IAFT Awards in the category " Best Broker of Asia 2019»,
- winner of the titles "World Best Broker" and "Traders' Choice World Best Broker" in 2019 from the MasterForex-V Academy,
- NordFX's two-tier partner program was noted as outstanding at the Saigon Financial Education Summit.

But the number of awards does not stop there. Due to the effectiveness and popularity of its affiliate program, NordFX broker company gets the Best Affiliate Program prize by the Forex Awards in the corresponding category, for the second year in a row.


Forex Awards is a team of professionals headquartered in Hong Kong, which, since 2010, has been specializing in the analysis and evaluation of business companies, identifying their most powerful and attractive sides. Its experts make regular ratings, and also determine the winners in about 30 categories, taking into account the opinions of both experts and the wide trading community. Therefore, another award received by NordFX from the Forex Awards for the best social trading platform is a significant assessment of the broker's efforts in this direction which is very important for traders and investors.

A fairly new trend in the line of services that the company offers to its clients is NordFX Investment Funds, which allow investors with very modest capital to invest profitably in shares of the world's largest companies. Following the results of 2019, these funds have brought their investors profit from 19.8% to 47.5% per annum in US dollars, which is ten times higher than the income from bank deposits.

Thanks to these outstanding results and professional management of the assets, according to the results of voting at the AtoZ Markets Service Providers Awards website in February 2020 NordFX has been awarded yet another award, becoming the winner in the category Best Managed Account Platform. It should be noted that the opinion of visitors to this portal, whose number is about 700,000 people a year, has also played a decisive role here.


#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #forex #forexbrokers #copytrading #cryptocurrency #bitcoin #signaltek

https://nordfx.com/

 
First, a review of last week’s events:
 
- EUR/USD. The dollar index has already gained 2.5% since the beginning of February, reaching the highest since May 2017. The euro continues to lose ground. Beginning on January 01, the advance of the dollar has weakened the European currency by 440 points. It has lost almost 300 points, or 2.7%, in the last three weeks of continuous decline alone.
Experts have managed to put forward many reasons for what is going on during this time, most often referring to fears about the coronavirus. But even here, when they talk about the same thing, they manage to draw opposite conclusions. As a result, some attribute the dollar to safe-haven currencies, while others, on the contrary, consider it a rather risky asset that will bring losses to investors as soon as the peak of the epidemic is passed and the Chinese economy begins to recover. It is quite possible that this will start to take place in the near future, since the Chinese leadership is applying efforts not only to fight the epidemic, but also to stimulate production and ease the monetary policy. One of these measures was the reduction by the People's Bank of China of the interest rate on the yuan from 4.15% to 4.05% on Thursday, February 20.
We cannot but agree with those experts who believe that the catalyst for the fall of the EUR/USD pair is the weakness of the European economy in the first place and ultra-low interest rates, which make the dollar much more attractive to investors. In addition, the truce in the trade war between the US and China also plays against the Euro.
The majority of analysts (60%) had voted for a further fall in the euro last week, supported by 100% of trend indicators and 65% of oscillators. At the same time, the remaining 35% had already been giving signals the European currency was oversold. If you look at the EUR/USD quotes, they accurately reflect this distribution of forces. At first, the pair went down, and then, starting from the midweek, it moved into a sideways trend, turning the 1.0800 horizon into either support or resistance. The divergence with the readings of many oscillators, such as the MACD, gave long position holders hope for a trend reversal. However, this did not happen, the fall only stopped. And only at the very end of the five-day period, the pair made a sharp jump up, finishing at 1.0848 and thus zeroing out the total result of the week;
 
- GBP/USD. The UK contributed to the weakening of the EU economy as well: after Brexit, the European Union budget has a deficit of €75 billion, and no one seems to know how to make up for such a serious loss. The British currency itself, unlike the euro, can be said to have stabilized against the dollar and, since the last decade of November 2019, has been moving along the 1.3000 line. The volatility is still quite high (220 points last week), but the pair repeatedly returns to this support/resistance zone.
The bears repeatedly tried to push the British defense in February, lowering the pound below the 1.3000 horizon. The pair even reached the local bottom at 1.2850 last week, but... then it turned around again, rushed up and finished the working week at 1.2960;
 
- USD/JPY. Giving the forecast for the past week, the vast majority of experts (70%), supported by graphical analysis on H4 and D1, had turned their views to the north. And they turned out to be right: the pair not only broke the landmark level of 110.00, but even without noticing several levels of resistance, soared to the height of 112.20, reaching the highs of April 2019. The main reason is called a sharp drop in interest in the yen as a safe-haven currency, against the background of an improvement in the situation with the coronavirus and, as a result, a turn of the markets towards riskier assets. The actions of the Chinese authorities to support companies affected by the epidemic also played against the yen.
After the pair took the height of 112.00, a correction occurred, and the final chord of the week sounded at the level of 111.60;

– cryptocurrencies. Longhash company has analyzed in detail the data on buying and selling bitcoins over the past two years and has made interesting conclusions. So, the researchers have found that the lowest average price of Bitcoin is observed on Fridays at 6 am GMT. In fact, this means the best time to open long positions. At midnight united time (UTC) on Mondays and Tuesdays, the price of BTC is on average $170 higher than on Fridays. It turns out that Monday or Tuesday is the best time to exit the Friday long or enter a short position until the next Friday (when the price is lower according to statistics).
At the same time, analysts warn that the crypto market is very volatile, so it is unlikely that the results of such a study should be considered investment advice.
And this is a very correct remark, especially if you look at the results of the past week. The price of Bitcoin was really low in the morning of Friday, February 14. And if a trader opened a long position at this point, he or she would have received a good profit by the end of the day. But if they left the position open until Monday, February 17, they would lose a tidy sum, since Bitcoin had fallen by about $600 during this time.
The main cryptocurrency has tried several times to gain a foothold above $10,000 over the past seven days, but to no success. The local bottom of the BTC/USD pair was fixed at $9.290, and among the reasons for this decline are, primarily, the tightening of pressure on Bitcoin by the US authorities, including President Trump, Fed chief Powell and Finance Minister Mnuchin.
It goes without saying that when going down, the main cryptocurrency pulled the top altcoins, including Ethereum (ETH/USD), Litecoin (LTC/USD) and Ripple (XRP/USD), and the Crypto Fear & Greed Index rolled back from the state of "greed" to the state of "fear".


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. Global markets are saturated with liquidity, including major currencies. It seems that Central banks know no other way to support the economy than to pump it with cheap money. The US Federal reserve spends $ 60 billion a month to buy bills, the ECB buys securities for 20 billion euros, and the Bank of Japan – for 80 trillion yen. Regulators in other countries are not far behind. And, at the moment when this money appears on the markets, we can observe fluctuations in prices in one direction or another.
The dollar today is a cross between a classic protective and a risky asset. This is due to political factors, the state of the US economy, and the actions of the Federal reserve, whose ability to reduce interest rates is far from exhausted, in contrast to its European and Japanese "counterparts".
All this allows 70% of analysts to count on the continued growth of the US currency and its reduction at least to the zone of 1.0750. It should be noted that the survey was conducted before the pair's short-term rally to the north on Friday just before the markets closed. It is also important that when moving to the forecast for March, the same number – 70% – of experts expect the pair to return to the level of 1.1000.
As for the indicators, if the vast majority of them were painted red in the morning of Friday, February 21, the situation changed radically by the evening and 70% acquired a green color on H4. On D1, however, the advantage still remains with the the bears: 75% of trend indicators and oscillators still point to the south. Nearest supports are 1.0800 and 1.0775;

- GBP/USD. The Pivot Point of the last three months can be considered the 1.3000 horizon, but starting from January 2020, there has been a certain increase in the bearish sentiment. That is why 55% of experts expect that the pair will once again test the previous week's low of 1.2850 and, if successful, will fall another 80-100 points lower. The remaining 45% of experts are expecting the pound to strengthen and the pair to rise to the 1.3000-1.3070 zone. The next target is 1.3120.
There is a complete discord among the indicators on D1 at the end of the week, but on H4, 60% of trend indicators and oscillators indicate the growth of the pair.
The compromise option is offered by graphical analysis on D1, which draws a decline at the end of February to the level of 1.2685, and then a return in the first decade of March, first to the level of 1.3000, and then to the height of 1.3200;

- USD/JPY. It is clear that the vast majority of indicators look up. However, about 15% of oscillators are already sending signals about the pair being overbought. Graphical analysis on D1 shows that the pair will stay in the range 111.25-112.00 for some time at the beginning of the week, after which it will go up to the zone 112.40-112.70.
As for experts, 75% believe that the pair will definitely return to the 109.65-110.25 zone, although this may take two to three weeks. The remaining 25% of analysts are expecting the pair to rise above the 112.40 mark, the target is 113.70;

– cryptocurrencies. The founder and CEO of Galaxy Digital, Mike Novogratz, is convinced that Bitcoin will be firmly fixed at the historical high of $20,000 by the end of 2020. According to the expert, Bitcoin is unstable right now, but it will definitely break the historical high of $20,000 by the end of the year, or at least reach it. This could happen sooner, in a couple of months, thanks to the halving. The emergence of regulated crypto exchanges and the adoption of the asset by conservative institutional investors will also serve as a positive factor for the growth of the first cryptocurrency. In addition, the continued issue of fiat currencies can also play into the hands of Bitcoin. "The main digital asset, just like gold, acts as a hedge asset, protecting investors from inflation and state monetary policy, leading to the depreciation of money," Novograts explained.
An even happier future for Bitcoin is predicted by well-known Bitcoin enthusiast TV host Max Kaiser. He raised his forecast for the price of this cryptocurrency to $400,000 per coin, increasing it by four times at once. Participating in the Infowars news show, Kaiser said that his previous prediction in 2012 of $100,000 is now too conservative.
In general, 70% of experts remain optimistic, expecting to see Bitcoin in the $10,500-11,000 zone within the next few weeks. The remaining 30% of experts call the level of $8,000 as the lower bar for the fall of the BTC/USD pair.


Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin

https://nordfx.com/

 
First, a review of last week’s events:
 
- EUR/USD. Stop-loss orders on long positions for this pair are triggered one after another for the second week in a row. The bulls retreat, successively surrendering all their lines of defense. The pair has not just updated the lows of this and last years, it has reached the lowest values since May 2017. And the most interesting thing is that there is no one serious reason for such a collapse of the European currency. You can explain the collapse of the USD/CHF pair on "Black Thursday" in January 2015 or the fall of the pound following the referendum on the UK's exit from the EU. And here it seems that nothing extraordinary has happened.
Experts call a variety of possible reasons that in total could lead to the fact that the dollar has pushed the euro by 270 points over the past two weeks, and, practically, without corrections. Among them are the difference in the positions of the ECB and the Fed regarding the policy of easing (QE) and the value of interest rates, as well as concerns about a prolonged recession in the euro zone, caused by the gloomy macroeconomic indicators of the German and EU economies. Coronavirus did not have the last word, because, unlike the US, the European economy is more vulnerable to Chinese risks. Traditionally, the dollar has been supported by a series of government bond offerings by the US Treasury.
It is difficult to say which of these factors the experts surveyed had been guided by, but the forecast given by most of them was absolutely accurate. Recall that 60% of experts supported by graphical analysis on H4, 100% of trend indicators and 85% of oscillators were confident that the pair would continue to fall. The goal was to test the November-October 2019 lows around 1.0880. The test was successful, and the pair ended the five-day session at 1.0835;

 - GBP/USD. The British currency seemed to set out to prove to the British that their country's exit from the EU was absolutely correct. While the former European "counterpart" of the pound, the euro, was continuously falling, the British, on the contrary, was growing all the past week, adding almost 200 points and reaching at maximum the height of 1.3070.
Initially, after the unexpected resignation of Chancellor Sajid Javid, who disagreed with the personnel policy of Prime Minister Boris Johnson, the pound went down, but very quickly it turned around after Rishi Sunak became the new Head of the UK Finance Ministry - an experienced financier and, concurrently, the son-in-law of a billionaire. Tax cuts and increased budget spending, of which Sunak is an apologist, can seriously fuel interest in the British currency.
The forecast given last week believed that in the event of an upward trend reversal, the pound would overcome the resistance of 1.2975 and possibly break through the upper limit of the 1.2800-1.3000 channel. This is what happened: the pair set the final chord at 1.3045;

- USD/JPY. It seems that the bulls can't take the 110.00 level. Not yet. The pair tried to gain a foothold above it in mid-January and tried again to do so in February. But again, to no avail. Even the strengthening of the dollar as a safe-haven currency did not help. Having barely reached the 110.13 mark in the middle of the week, the pair turned around and eventually finished at 109.77;   

– cryptocurrencies. What is the best refuge from the economic turmoil caused by the coronavirus? Dollar? Yes, indeed, it shows convincing growth against the euro and a number of other currencies. But Bitcoin shows even more convincing growth against the dollar itself. Last week, 80% of analysts thought that the BTC/USD pair would reach $10.450. And this forecast was 99.99% correct: ¬ on Thursday, February 13, its quotes reached a height of $10.490. Thus, since the beginning of January, the cost of the main cryptocurrency has increased by more than 45%.
So, is Bitcoin the super safe haven?
However, as it turned out, there are even more attractive assets. The demand for Bitcoin has also pushed the demand for such top altcoins as Ethereum (ETH/USD), Litecoin (LTC/USD), Ripple (XRP/USD), and others. And if before they followed in the wake of the reference cryptocurrency, now some of them have gone far ahead. For example, Ethereum has increased in price by 120% since the beginning of the year, but it has increased by 35% only in the last week.
This activity of alternative coins could not but affect the share of Bitcoin in the total capitalization of the crypto market: if in early January it was 70%, today it has dropped to 62.4%. So the discussion about the best asset-haven is not over yet.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. The calendar for the upcoming week is filled with information for fundamental analysis specialists. Although, as for the Eurozone, the forecasts do not promise anything good in advance. It is expected that the indicators of the indices that characterize the state of the business environment in Germany and the eurozone – ZEW on Tuesday, February 18 and Markit on February 21 – will be lower than the previous ones. The report on the ECB meeting on February 20 may add to the pessimism. All this can lead to further losses of the euro against the US dollar. Positive news from the front of the fight against coronavirus will be able to turn the trend up, but it is still difficult to predict anything here.
100% of the trend indicators on H4 and D1 are colored red. 65% of oscillators look down as well. The targets are 1.0700 and 1.0525; However, the remaining 35% of the oscillators are already in the oversold zone, which is a very strong signal for a possible upward trend reversal. Or, at least, for a serious correction, which, according to the indications of the graphical analysis on H4, can return the pair to the 1.0900 zone, and, perhaps, bring it closer to the 1.1000 mark.
At the moment, only 40% of experts vote for the pair's growth, however, when switching to the monthly forecast, their number increases to 65%;

- GBP/USD. It is possible that in addition to the resignation of Chancellor Sajid Javid, the UK is able to present other surprises in these difficult times. As they say about Brexit, the farther into the forest, the thicker the trees.   For now, the picture looks like this. Trend indicators on H4 indicate: up 95%, down 5%, on D1 up 75%, down 25%. Oscillators: on H4, 90% is green, 10% is overbought, and on D1, it is a complete mess. Analysts do not have any clear point of view, although, when moving to the medium-term forecast, most of them (65%) side with the bulls. The nearest bullish target is 1.3200, the resistance levels are 1.3070, 1.3115 and 1.3160. Supports: 1.3000, 1.2970, 1.2940 and 1.2880;
   
- USD/JPY. After the week-long sideways trend of this pair, there is complete discord among the indicators. As for experts, 70% of them, supported by graphical analysis on H4 and D1, look to the north. According to their scenario, the pair should eventually overcome the resistance of 110.00 and rise another 80-100 points higher. The remaining 30% of analysts remain pessimistic. In their opinion, the decline in the stock market and the yield of government bonds may lead to a fall in the pair to the zone of 109.10-109.30, following supports are 108.30 and 107.65.

– cryptocurrencies. The forecasts of the crypto market gurus are, as usual, overflowing with enthusiasm. The Bitcoin exchange rate will rise to $40,000 within the year, said co-founder of Fundstrat Global Advisors Tom Lee in an interview with CNBC. He attributed the halving, the coronavirus outbreak, the geopolitical instability, and overcoming the 200-day moving average to the reasons for the cryptocurrency's rise in price. According to Lee, the White House deliberately interfered with the rally of the first cryptocurrency last year. But now the US government is distracted by the election of the new President and will not be able to organize a campaign against Bitcoin.
Anthony Pompliano, partner of Morgan Creek Digital investment company, predicts further growth of the main cryptocurrency as well. He is confident that the explosive growth of the Bitcoin exchange rate will occur due to the growing demand for the asset and its limited issue, resulting in it reaching $100,000 by the end of 2021.
In general, 60% of analysts expect that the BTC/USD pair will break the $11,000 mark in February-March. However, while last week it was only 20% of experts who exclaimed: "Beware of a trend reversal!", now their number has doubled, reaching 40%. Some crypto traders believe that the growth in the value of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, which began in January, is caused by "ghost money". As they say, on certain trading platforms, large orders appear periodically, which are not intended to buy or sell cryptocurrency, but to create the illusion of a demand for the asset. Someone provokes investors to purchase the coin with their help, thereby inflating its price. "You can only push the price so high with the help of "ghost money". At some point, people will want to cash out their crazy earnings, but will not be able to find someone to sell the asset to. This is going to be a show!"- one of the crypto sceptics wrote on Twitter.
And in this situation, the brokerage company NordFX offers probably the best option for trading cryptocurrencies – a kind of contract for the difference in price, without the actual delivery of coins. In this case, when opening long or short positions, you can be sure that even if the price of Bitcoin soars to the skies or, conversely, collapses to zero, you will get your due profit.


Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin

https://nordfx.com/

 
First, a review of last week’s events:
 
- EUR/USD. The statistics in the United States (including ISM and NFP) look rather optimistic. The US indices have updated their record levels over the past five days: The Dow Jones is 29393 and the S&P500 is 3345. Production orders in Germany have been falling by 0.5% for three months in a row, confirming concerns about the state of the European economy, which is teetering on the edge of recession. As a result, expectations are growing among investors regarding the expansion of quantitative easing (QE) policy in the euro zone, and confidence is growing that the dollar rate will remain at least unchanged. This has recently been stated by the Fed Vice President Randal Quarles. Donald Trump also radiates optimism ahead of the presidential election, insistently reminding the voters that the unemployment in the US is at a record low of 3.5%.
Recall that the opinion of experts, as well as most indicators on D1, regarding the pair's quotes on the last five-day period, was neutral-gray: 50-50. First of all, because of the unclear situation with the coronavirus. But at the same time, on both timeframes, H4 and D1, about 15% of the oscillators gave signals the pair was overbought and the trend reversal down was upcoming. Graphical analysis on H4 agrees with this development, foreshadowing a return to a very strong support of 1.0990-1.1000.
This is exactly what happened: the pair did turn around and reached the specified support on Wednesday, February 05. This was followed by a 20-hour battle of the bulls and the bears, which, in the end, ended with the victory of the latter. The dollar continued to rise, while the euro continued to fall. The decline in coronavirus infection rates and the market support from the Central Bank of China played into the hands of the US currency. As a result, on Friday, February 07, after updating the multi-month low, the pair found a local bottom at 1.0940, and ended the trading session at 1.0945;

 - GBP/USD. Following the euro, the pound lost its position against the dollar. An additional pressure is exerted on it by concerns that the UK will still not be able to agree a trade deal with the EU during the post-Brexit transition period.
As in the case of EUR/USD, about 15% of oscillators last week gave clear signals about the pair being overbought, and graphical analysis predicted a decline in the British currency first to the horizon of 1.2970, and then to the level of 1.2800. In fact, the pair's fall stopped on Friday, February 07, approximately in the middle of the named range – in the 1.2880 zone;

- USD/JPY. The decrease in the rate of the coronavirus infection and the hopes for an early victory over this infection reduce the interest of markets in safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese yen. As a result, the pair managed to break the landmark level of 110.00 in the second half of the week and reach the level of 110.016. Then there was a rebound, and the final chord sounded in the area of a strong medium-term support/resistance zone – at the level of 109.75;

– cryptocurrencies. - Bitcoin has had the best January in the past seven years. The value of the main coin has increased by about 30 percent. The volume of capitalization of the asset added about $39 billion. according to experts, the reason for this rise was the geopolitical situation. The approaching halving has also affected the value of Bitcoin. The last time Bitcoin showed such aggressive growth dynamics was in January 2013. Then the coin increased in value by about 54 percent. It is noteworthy that at that time the asset was also preparing for the halving.
Another reason pushing the BTC/USD pair up was the coronavirus. "Asian investors are increasingly buying cryptocurrency because of the situation with the coronavirus. Payments in dollars may be banned, so Bitcoin and other coins will be the only way out," Vijay Ayyar, one of the top managers of the Luno crypto exchange, said on CNBC. Also, in his opinion, the price of Bitcoin is affected by the "black" market.  Many companies from China have closed the export of goods, which is why the scale of smuggling paid for with cryptocurrency has increased significantly.
Whatever it was, the halving, along with the virus and the smugglers, have almost "pushed" Bitcoin quotes to the cherished bar of $10,000: on Thursday, February 06, fully justifying the forecasts of most experts, the cost of one coin reached the mark of $9,860.
Naturally, the growth of the leading cryptocurrency gave another impetus to the top altcoins. Ethereum (ETH/USD) reached $223.9, Litecoin (LTC/USD) – $75.30 and Ripple (XRP/USD) – $0.2800.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. Over the past week, all most popular currency pairs have reached landmark levels: EUR/USD(1.1000), GBP/USD (1.3000) and USD/JPY (110), which makes the task of forecasting their further movement even more difficult, since these levels can act as both a very strong support and resistance.
At the time of writing this forecast (Saturday, February 08), the situation with indicators for the EUR/USD pair mirrors what we observed a week ago. 100% of trend indicators and 85% of oscillators on H4 and D1 are now colored red. And the remaining 15% of the oscillators now signal the pair is oversold and a rebound up is expected.
60% of experts, supported by graphical analysis on H4, believe that the pair will continue to fall, aiming to test the lows of November-October 2019 in the area of 1.0880. And if successful, it will open the way to the zone of 1.0500-1.0800, where it already visited in 2015-2017.
However, graphical analysis as a further perspective draws a rebound of the pair from the support of 1.0880 back up: first to the resistance of 1.1000, and then another 100 points higher. The majority (60%) of analysts agree that the pair will reach 1.1100 and 1.1200 again in the medium term.
As for the macroeconomic analysis, next week we will be covered by a whole wave of important events. Among them are the speech of the Fed Jerome Powell to the US Congress, the publication of statistics on the consumer markets of Germany and the United States on 13 and 14 February, and the release of GDP data for Germany and Eurozone at the end of the week, on Friday 14 February;

- GBP/USD. On Tuesday, February 11, the data on the UK GDP for the 4th quarter of 2019 will also be available. It is expected that the increase will be zero, which may put additional pressure on the pound. It should be noted that the situation with Brexit and the monetary policy of the Bank of England makes the prospects for the British currency very vague. At least, now the experts' opinions are divided into three almost equal parts: 30% are for the growth, 30% are for the fall and 40% are for the sideways movement of the pair. In the medium term, the majority of analysts (65%) still hope for the successful promotion of the trade negotiations between Britain and the EU.
As for technical analysis, the situation repeats the situation with the EUR/USD: the indicators are colored red, and only 15% of the oscillators are in the oversold zone.   
The pair finished the week at the level of1. 2880 ¬- in the Pivot Point zone, along which it rotated from the end of October to the beginning of December 2019. Therefore, the nearest borders of its fluctuations are the borders of the same last year's corridor -1.2800 and 1.3000. However, the fall of the pound over the past five days by as much as 320 points suggests that it may not stay in the specified channel. The next target for the bears is the 1.2400-1.2580 zone. If the trend turns up, we will see the pair in the 1.2975-1.3200 zone with a Pivot Point of 1.3100. Due to the increased volatility of the pair, it is not possible to give more accurate benchmarks (recall that in December 2019, it "flew" more than 600 points in just 10 days!);   

- USD/JPY. Japan is the most energy-dependent country due to the lack of its own energy resources, especially now, when after blocking several nuclear power plants, it was necessary to significantly increase purchases of petroleum products. Therefore, a sharp increase in the price of this energy carrier always leads to a weakening of the Japanese currency.
Over the past week, the oil market has been experiencing increased volatility in anticipation of the OPEC + Committee's decision to reduce the oil production. As a result, it was decided to reduce its production by 600,000 barrels per day, which should stop the fall in the price of "black gold". The easing of China's trade policy should also support the oil market, in particular, Beijing's decision to reduce duties on US goods worth $75 billion. Most likely, all this affected the growth of the USD/JPY pair and the fall of the Japanese currency to 110 yen per dollar last week. 60% of experts expect that the pair will continue to grow further, which will be facilitated not only by the oil factor, but also by the improvement of the situation with the coronavirus.
However, we must not forget that since January 06, Brent oil futures have fallen by almost 21% – from $68.91 to $54.45, which gives reason to the remaining 40% of analysts to side with the Japanese currency.
The technical analysis situation here is as follows. On the H4 timeframe, 80% of oscillators and 75% of trend indicators look up, while on D1, 85% of oscillators and 90% of trend indicators are green. So, there is a clear advantage of bullish sentiment.
Graphical analysis on H4 indicates a drop in the pair to the zone of 109.10-109.30, the following supports are 108.30 and 107.65. On D1, the picture is reversed: first, growth to the 110.80-111.30 level, and then to the 111.70 height. The nearest resistance is 1.2575.

– cryptocurrencies. So, the price of Bitcoin has updated the 3-month high. "Beware of a trend reversal!"- 20% of experts warns. Against the background of the coronavirus epidemic, relations between the US and China may stabilize, which will cause an increase in investor interest in fiat currencies. In this case, Bitcoin can sink a lot. Even without the coronavirus, these two industrial giants are moving step by step toward the end of the trade war. But how much will this affect the Bitcoin quotes?
80% of analysts believe that a particularly strong drawdown (below $9,100) should not be expected, and the pair will soon reach the $10,450 mark. And there's $12,300 just around the corner. Thomas Lee, co-founder of Fundstrat Global Advisors, predicts even greater growth. In his opinion, the average yield on Bitcoin in the next six months will reach 200%.
But, as often happens, when everyone looks up, the price goes down. Therefore, we strongly advise you not to forget about the 20% of specialists who call for extreme caution.


Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin

https://nordfx.com/

 
First, a review of last week’s events:
 
- EUR/USD. The past week passed under the sign of the coronavirus, which determined the lion's share of what was happening in the markets. Commodities and currencies that are most clearly linked to China have suffered the most.
As you know, the euro zone economy is closely correlated with the Chinese economy, and this played into the hands of the dollar in the first half of the week. As expected by the majority (55%) of experts, supported by 85% of oscillators and 100% of trend indicators not only on H4 and D1, but also on W1, the EUR/USD pair went down and reached the 1.1000 support on Wednesday, January 29.
After reaching the local bottom at 1.0992, it turned around and headed back north.
This move could have stopped the WHO (World Health Organization) statement, but its officials did everything possible to avoid causing panic in the markets and finally undermining economic activity. On the one hand, the WHO declared the coronavirus epidemic an emergency of international significance, but on the other, it asked people to behave as usual.
As a result, the European currency continued its growth, even despite the release of weak macroeconomic data from the eurozone. The pair was supported not only by US GDP data, but also by the Bank of England's decision to keep the interest rate (more on this later). Throughout 2019, the pound and the euro supported each other in the fight against the dollar, so the growth of the British currency could not help but push up its European "counterpart". The elimination of short positions on the eve of the weekend also contributed to the growth of the EUR/USD pair on Friday. As a result, by the end of the weekly session, the pair returned to the medium-term Pivot Point zone, around which it has been fluctuating since mid-July 2019 -1.1085-1.1100, confirming the hypothesis about the equilibrium state of these two currencies in the recent months;

 - GBP/USD. The Bank of England minutes of January 30: the volume of asset purchases by the Bank of England: unchanged (£435B), the interest rate: unchanged (0.75%), the number of votes cast for keeping the rate unchanged: unchanged (7), the number of votes for lowering it: unchanged (2). That is, everything is exactly as it was a month ago. And this "no change" suddenly pushes the British pound up against the dollar and against a number of other currencies, including the euro. Why?
January 31 is the official date of the UK's exit from the European Union, however, by the end of 2020, according to the agreement on the transition period, there are no serious events on this front, the country is waiting for another round of long negotiations with the EU. The coronavirus could shake up the market. Due of its outburst, the probability of an interest rate cut by the Bank of England went up. However, this did not happen. The Monetary Policy Committee considered that the improvement in the economic situation after the December elections to the UK Parliament will continue in the future and decided to leave the rate unchanged.
What happened fully justified the forecast, for which the main (65%) part of analysts voted last week. In their opinion, the GBP/USD pair should first break through the resistance of 1.3160, and then approach the height of 1.3200. This actually happened: the British currency set the final chord at the level of 1.3202;   

- USD/JPY. Many investors felt that a safe-haven currency like the yen could protect them from the onset of the coronavirus. This confidence and the reversal from risky assets to protective ones contributed to another strengthening of the Japanese currency last week. 40% of experts named the level of 108.40 as the main support for the USD/JPY pair, in the area of which it ended the working week at the mark of 108.36;

– cryptocurrencies. It should be noted that last week only 20% of experts supported the opinion that by the end of January, Bitcoin will be able to gain a foothold above the $9,000 horizon. The vast majority (70%) expected this to happen only 2-3 weeks later. However, the coronavirus did its job.
- US stocks started the week with a big sell-off. All the three main indicators went into a negative territory amid concerns about the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. The Dow Jones industrial average fell 400 points, the Nasdaq Composite index fell 1.8%, and the S&P 500 lost 1.4%. At the same time, Bitcoin rose, reaching the level of $9.550 USD on the night of Thursday to Friday. "Every time the regulated markets fall due to fear and apprehension, Bitcoin grows. And this reinforces the concept of the main cryptocurrency as a safe haven asset, " analyst Nathaniel Whittemore explained what is happening in an interview with BlockTV.
The growth of the leading cryptocurrency also gave a boost to the entire crypto market, pushing top coins, including Ethereum (ETH/USD), Litecoin (LTC/USD) and Ripple (XRP/USD), into the green zone. The total capitalization of the cryptocurrency market also went up: if on January 25, it was $235bn, five days later it reached the level of almost $267bn, showing an increase of 13.5%.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. Some Americans think that everything that happens outside the United States does not concern them. But this is not the case at all. The economy of the United States depends largely on what happens in other countries. And, realizing this, the Fed is quite sensitive to international challenges, which is why it is sometimes called the "tail" that the dog, the global GDP, turns. At the moment, the next challenge is the coronavirus coming from China. Although there has been no obvious reaction from the "tail" yet.
The coronavirus has not yet been localized, so panic moods that lead to the sale of risky assets may become the main trend of the coming week. A positive piece of news, say, about the successful creation of a vaccine against this infection, can dramatically "turn the rivers back". It is very difficult to predict anything in this case.
If we talk about technical analysis, most of the indicators on H4 are colored green, while on D1 the neutral gray dominates. But on both timeframes, about 15% of the oscillators signal that the pair is overbought, which can serve as a harbinger, if not of a change in the trend, then at least of a certain correction to the south. Graphical analysis on H4 agrees with this development, foreshadowing a return to a very strong support of 1.0990-1.1000.
The experts' opinion at the moment, as well as that of indicators on D1, can be called neutral-gray. However, when switching from a weekly to a monthly forecast, it becomes more and more green, reaching a high of 70%. That is the number of analysts who believe that, having overcome the resistance in the 1.1100-1.1115 zone, the pair will consistently storm the height of 1.1145 in February, then 1.1170, 1.1200 and reach the December 31, 2019 high at 1.1240.
As for macroeconomic statistics, next week we will know the values of the ISM business activity indices in the US manufacturing and services sectors, as well as the traditional for the first Friday of the month data on the US labor market (including NFP).
However, the markets may expect a surprise as early as on Monday, February 03, when the January Caixin Purchasing Managers' activity index (PMI) is published, which is a leading indicator of the state of China's manufacturing sector. Its value can give the market a signal about how the coronavirus has affected the economic situation in China.
Monday's surprises may not end there – on February 03, the real season of "hunting" for the us President's seat opens. This day will be the first democratic primary in Iowa. And in the event of a strong Bernie Sanders result, there may be an equally strong market reaction;

- GBP/USD. After such an impressive jump up by 230 points at the end of last week, the vast majority of indicators on both H4 and D1 are colored green. However, as with the previous pair, about 15% of the oscillators are already in the overbought zone. Following them, the graphical analysis on D1 draws a possible fall of the British currency first to the horizon of 1.2970, and then to the level of 1.2800. The nearest strong support is 1.3100.
It should be noted that, starting a month and a half ago with fluctuations in the range 1.2900-1.3285, the pair gradually reduced volatility to the boundaries of 1.2975-1.3200. Most analysts (55%) believe that it will be able to stay within this corridor in the near future. However, not much less (45%) are those who expect the pound to continue its positive dynamics, break through the resistance in the zone of 1.3285-1.3300 and rise to the highs of last December in the area of 1.3500;

- USD/JPY. The upcoming quotes of this pair directly depend on the success of virologists. If they can tame the coronavirus in the next few days, the dollar will win. If the epidemic begins to take over new territories, and the number of its victims continues to multiply, the advantage will be on the side of the Japanese currency - the haven.
Since financial analysts do not currently have data on what is happening in scientific laboratories, their opinions are divided 50-50. As for technical analysis, 100% of trend indicators and 80% of oscillators on H4 and D1 predict the pair's fall. Graphical analysis on H4 agrees with them. Support levels are 107.70, 107.00 and 106.60. The opposite opinion is held by the graphical analysis on D1 and 20% of the oscillators that signal the pair is oversold. Resistance levels are 109.25, 109.70, the target is 110.25;

– cryptocurrencies. The BTC/USD pair has shown an increase of 30% or $2,200 in the first month of 2020. The Bitcoin Crypto Fear & Greed Index has crossed the equator and is now at the level of 55 out of the possible 100. Analysts' optimism has also grown. If earlier, remembering the unexpected collapses of the main cryptocurrency, they were afraid to give positive forecasts, now 60% of them boldly point to the $10,000 mark. And this is where investors need to be especially careful: it is in the moments of greatest optimism that large speculators can start an active game on the downside. And you don't need to go far for examples – just look at what happened last year.


Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin

https://nordfx.com/

 
First, a review of last week’s events:
  
- EUR/USD. The euro is falling again, and it has lost about 70 points to the dollar over the past five days. There are two reasons for this: the coronavirus epidemic in China and the very cautious new ECB Head Christine Lagarde.
It is well known that the Eurozone economy is strongly correlated with the Chinese economy, as has recently been demonstrated by the trade wars. And if the economy of China is sick, then the European one is also experiencing a strong malaise. In 2003, a pandemic in China killed more than 700 people and caused retail sales to fall by almost half. But despite the fact that the new virus is considered less dangerous, it can now spread much faster than at the beginning of the century. The reason for this is the infrastructure of China, which has become much more developed during this time. Oil prices were the first to react to the new attack, but the foreign exchange market was not long in reacting.
As for Ms. Lagarde, she really disappointed investors, saying that the revision of the ECB's strategy is a long process that will only be completed by the end of 2020. Moreover, against the background of the US President Trump's warnings about the possible introduction of increased duties on European exports, Ms. Lagarde considered that "the risks for the euro zone are still skewed towards the decline of the economy." And so the European regulator will have to maintain an ultra-soft approach to its monetary policy.
Against the background of such statements by the head of the ECB and the Chinese epidemic, even favorable data on business activity in Germany (PMI) did not help the euro, and the EUR/USD pair fell to the level of 1.1020 by the end of the week. Last week, 40% of experts and the absolute majority of indicators warned that it would attack the 1.1000 level. Among the oscillators on H4 there are 75% of them, on D1 – 65%, among the trend indicators, 100% on H4 and 90% on D1 point to the south.

 - GBP/USD. Thanks to the growth of business activity (PMI) on Friday, January 24, the British currency reached a two-week high at 1.3172, but then went down again. Expectations of an interest rate cut at the Bank of England meeting on January 30, as well as the same notorious Chinese coronavirus, contributed to the fall.
The dynamics of the movement of the GBP/USD pair was most accurately predicted last week by graphical analysis. As for the final chord, the pair ended the trading session at 1.3080, slightly correcting the mid-term Pivot Point zone in the upward direction - to the range of 1.3050-1.3085;

- USD/JPY. According to some experts, the extremely low volatility of the EUR/USD pair indicates that a certain balance has been established between these two major currencies. And now the euro and the dollar are in the balance on the one hand, and emerging market currencies and stocks on the other. And these markets, especially those of neighboring countries, may be particularly affected by the crisis caused by the spread of the Chinese coronavirus.
As it turned out, the yen gained the most from such anxious but vague expectations, being a safe haven that can shelter investors' capital from unpredictable financial storms. A third of the experts who voted for the fall of the pair, and even more so the oscillators that gave signals about its overbought, could not know about the coronavirus pandemic, but, nevertheless, gave the correct forecast. The pair quickly turned the support of 109.65-109.70 into resistance, and then found a local bottom at the level of 109.17. As for the end of the trading session, it finished it very close, at the level of 109.27;

– cryptocurrencies. If someone dreamed of cryptocurrencies as an independent and free from state control financial system, they could forget about it. Just one example. The Minister of Finance of Ukraine announced that the state financial monitoring service will investigate where the citizens of this country got the cryptocurrency from. According to the Minister, the tools available to this organization allow them to determine both the origin of digital assets and what they were spent on. Moreover, this service has the authority to block cryptocurrencies and seize assets illegally obtained by Ukrainian citizens.
It is clear that this news did not contribute to the fall of Bitcoin, but the fact remains that the reference cryptocurrency could not gain a foothold above $9,000 and on Friday, January 24, it fell to the $8,250-8,450 zone.
According to some experts, what is to blame for this fall... is the Chinese New Year. Comparing the results of trading in this period over the past few years, they noted that the risk of a drawdown of the main coin is present even against the background of the overall growth dynamics. According to their calculations, in Asia, about 10 percent of residents have savings in cryptocurrency. And before the New Year, they start cashing in assets and spending money on gifts and holiday parties.
Altcoins: Ethereum (ETH/USD), Litecoin (LTC/USD) and Ripple (XRP/USD), as usual, followed in the wake of the main cryptocurrency. The total capitalization of the crypto market decreased from $251 to $236 billion.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. As already mentioned, for the ECB, a weak euro is now preferable to a strong one. Realizing this, the bulls do not want to take risks, which makes the European currency even weaker. Its nearest target in the downtrend is 1.1000, followed by 1.0960. This is followed by the low of October 01, 2019 -1.0880. 55% of analysts now vote for the fall, supported by 85% of oscillators and 100% of trend indicators not only on H4 and D1, but also on W1.
The opposite view is expressed by 45% of experts and 15% of oscillators in the oversold zone. Moreover, when switching from a weekly forecast to a monthly one, the number of bull supporters increases to 70%. The immediate task is to overcome the strong resistance in the 1.1065 zone, followed by the 1.1100 and 1.1175 resistances.
As for the Fed's decision on the interest rate on January 29, it is likely that it will remain at the same level – 1.75%, and this meeting will not have much impact on the dynamics of the pair;

- GBP/USD. Done! Here it is, the X day, Friday 31 January, which will be followed by the UK's farewell to the European Union. Brexit, which everyone has been talking about for so long, can be considered accomplished. However, we think that at the moment this event will put more moral pressure on the market – the relatively smooth process of the country's exit from the EU significantly reduces investment risks. Moreover, the current low rate of the pound helps the British economy in many ways, strengthening its competitiveness in foreign markets.
If there are no unexpected unpleasant surprises from Brexit, the pound may feel relatively calm. And it is not excluded that it will grow not only against the euro, but also against the dollar. So, 65% of experts expect it to move north - first to the resistance of 1.3160, and then to the height of 1.3200.
An alternative forecast is given by 35% of experts, according to whom the GBP/USD pair is expected to fall further. This scenario is especially likely if the Bank of England meeting on Thursday, January 30, gives at least a hint of a possible interest rate cut. In this case, the British currency has every chance to continue its journey to the south, in which, after breaking through the supports of 1.3040, 1.3000 and 1.2960, it can reach the lows of last December in the 1.2900 zone. Graphic analysis on D1 actively supports this development;

- USD/JPY. There is some confusion among the indicators, but 10% of the oscillators are already giving clear signals that this pair is oversold. 60% of analysts supported by graphical analysis on D1 believe that it will stop falling as well. The goal is to rise to the zone 110.20-110.30. The next resistance is at 110.80;
The remaining 40% of experts side with the bears, who believe that the downward trend of the past week will continue. The Dow Jones index is aiming for 30.000, and the USD/JPY pair should break through the 109 mark, which will lead to further losses for all cross-pairs related to the Japanese currency. The main support is at 108.40, the next one is 60 points lower;

– cryptocurrencies. Along with the fall of the main cryptocurrency, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index also fell slightly down, from 54 to 40. This is not yet a fear of the market, but investors are no longer particularly attracted to opening long positions.
Even some of the crypto prophets have tempered their appetites. In a recent tweet, trader and crypto analyst Josh Rager expressed the opinion that, as in other markets, Bitcoin has a "law of decreasing the rate of return", and there is a decrease in its profitability in each cycle. "The next Bitcoin maximum will not be as high as most people think. Some point to $100,000, $300,000, and $1 million. One should also take into account the decrease in the profit margin by about 20% in each cycle. Therefore, I think the next high will be in the range of $75,000 to $85,000," the analyst wrote. Rager's position on this issue was also supported by the cryptocurrency analytical company ByteTree.
If we talk about forecasts for the near future, they are not so optimistic. 50% of experts expect the BTC/USD pair to fall to the $7,500-8,000 zone, 30% voted for a sideways trend and only 20%¬ - for the pair to rise above the $9,000 horizon. However, when switching to the monthly forecast, the number of crypto optimists increases to 70%.


Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin

https://nordfx.com/

The broker company NordFX has offered its clients one more opportunity for profitable trading and investment in the financial markets in 2020: Copy Trading service.


Copy Trading is a simple and clear type of social trading in which transactions from the signal provider's account are automatically copied to the subscriber's account. This service allows experienced traders to make additional profit by selling their trading signals, and for beginners - by copying them. It is also suitable for those who are interested in passive investment in financial markets, since it does not require any independent trading experience or any serious time costs. 

You can select a signal provider using full statistical information and online monitoring data for more than 30 parameters. At the same time, the obvious advantage of Copy Trading is that subscribers have full control over their accounts. At any time, the subscriber can close one or more copied trades, stop subscribing to signals, and simultaneously conduct independent trading on this account. In addition, the subscriber can adjust the copied transactions in accordance with the available funds and the desired risk/return ratio.

The advantage is also the fact that the subscriber pays the provider a fee only for profitable transactions and only for the total profit for the entire copying period.

The new service allows you to make and copy trades using the entire range of trading tools available in NordFX on a standard Pro account, including Forex currency pairs, cryptocurrencies, gold, silver, oil, and major stock indices.

Transactions are copied even when the terminal is turned off, and the subscriber does not need to keep the computer turned on 24 hours a day or spend money on renting a VPS server.

You can learn more about the work of the Copy Trading service, become a subscriber or a signal provider through your personal account on the broker's official website.


#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #forex #forexbrokers #copytrading #cryptocurrency #bitcoin #signaltek

https://nordfx.com/

 
First, a review of last week’s events:
 
- EUR/USD. Starting from November 29, 2019, the pair moved along the ascending channel. On December 31, it reached the upper limit of the channel at 1.1240, and then changed direction and on January 08, it broke through the lower limit of the channel at 1.1225. "Will it return to its limits?"– we asked this question last week, to which the majority of experts (60%) answered with a firm "no". And they turned out to be right: Until Thursday, January 16, the bulls tried to do this, but then their strength weakened, and the pair went down sharply.
Even the signing of the "first phase" trade agreement between the US and China did not help the bulls. According to this document, Beijing agreed to increase purchases of American goods and services by about $200 billion in the next two years, and Washington, for its part, promised to lower the duty on Chinese imports worth $120 billion to 7.5% and not introduce new fees.
It should be noted that, in general, this event had already been taken into account by the markets, but still caused a further increase in the US stock indexes and a slight decline in the dollar. Investors continued to reform assets, preferring shares rather than money.
However, the fall of the dollar and the EUR/USD pair was soon stopped due to the publication of the December ECB meeting minutes and the retail sales data in the United States.
In the first case, the management of the European mega-regulator announced that it is not going to raise the key interest rate until the inflation approaches the 2% mark. Moreover, the ECB did not rule out the possibility of moving the rate from the current zero level to the negative zone. As for the second factor, the retail trade volume in the United States increased from -0.1% to + 0.5%, and, as you know, consumer spending accounts for more than 65% of the US GDP. As a result, the euro began to lose its positions against the dollar, and the pair ended the trading session in the zone of a strong support/resistance level of 1.1100, at the level of 1.1090;

 - GBP/USD. This pair showed similar dynamics to the EUR/USD, but, as usual, with a much larger scale. So, if the difference between the week low and high for the EUR/USD was just over 85 points, this value was twice as high for the British currency.
The active sale of the pound on January 17 was caused by the report on the UK retail sales for December. The monthly indicator was in the negative area, and the annual indicator was three times less than the forecast value. As a result, at the end of the week, the pound fell to the January 09 low, and ended the five-day period at 1.3015 - exactly where, according to most experts, the medium-term Pivot Point (1.3000-1.3050) of this pair is located;

- USD/JPY. 25% of experts, supported by 75% of oscillators and 85% of trend indicators, voted for the pair to rise to the level of 110.70. It did go up, but the pair's growth was stopped at 110.30. Despite the fact that the yen lost only about 80 points to the dollar during the week, this can be considered a significant event, since it overcame the psychologically important level of 110.00. Recall that after passing the mark of 29.000, the Dow Jones index confidently went up, and it is possible that the same thing will happen with the USD/JPY pair;

– cryptocurrencies. Every Wednesday, analysts of NordFX brokerage company publish weekly reviews of the cryptocurrency market on NordFX's Facebook page, Twitter channel, and other social networks. In another such review on Wednesday, January 15, it was suggested that the cost of BTC in February has all the chances to rise to the level of 9,5 thousand dollars. Increased correlation with gold as well as various external factors will allow the main coin to add at least $1000 per month. Among these factors, first of all, the use of bitcoin as a safe haven asset should be noted. A clear proof of this phenomenon was the growth of the main cryptocurrency against the background of escalating tensions around Iran.
On Tuesday last week, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange announced the successful launch of a new financial instrument, the option for Bitcoin, which allowed the BTC/USD quotes to reach a landmark level of $9,000 on Friday, January 17. Thus, the pair's growth over the past two weeks has exceeded 22%.
Altcoins also soared in the wake of the main cryptocurrency. Ripple (XRP/USD) showed an increase of 25%, Ethereum (ETH/USD) – 30%, and the most impressive was the strengthening of Litecoin (LTC/USD): its growth was about 50%. The total capitalization of the crypto market increased by 14.5% and reached $245 billion.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. For three weeks in a row, the pair is moving down, the euro has fallen by about 240 points. The vast majority of indicators are now red not only on H4, but also on D1. Among the oscillators on H4 there are 75% of them, on D1 – 65%, among the trend indicators 100% on H4 and 90% on D1 point to the south. The nearest support is 1.1065, the bears' target is 1.1000.
At the same time, some of the oscillators already give active signals about the pair being oversold. 60% of experts also look up. In their opinion, the pair will try once again to return to the limits of the medium-term ascending channel, which started in early December 2019. The nearest resistance is 1.1150. The targets are 1.1200 and 1.1240; The pair's growth may be helped by the outflow of capital to the stock market, provoked by the decline in tensions in trade relations between the US and China. This reduced the probability of a recession in the United States to 24%, which is the lowest rate in the last eight months.
Monday, January 20, is a day off in the United States, but it is at this time that the People's Bank of China will announce its decision on the interest rate, which is currently 4.15%. In addition, other events are of interest. On Tuesday, January 21, the German business sentiment Index will be published. According to forecasts, it may fall from 10.7 to 4.3 units, which may lead to some weakening of the European currency. On Thursday, the ECB's decision on the interest rate will be announced, and a press conference of the European regulator's management will also be held. And on Friday, January 24, we are waiting for a whole series of publications of estimated indicators of business activity both in Germany and in the Eurozone as a whole;

- GBP/USD. Two macro indicators will help to assess the state of the UK economy, such as the ILO unemployment rate, which will be released on Tuesday, and the Markit business activity index, being published on Friday 24 January. However, in the run-up to the upcoming Brexit, they are unlikely to have a serious impact on the formation of trends for this pair.
The pair finished the previous week in the mid-term Pivot Point zone 1.3000-1.3050. At the time of writing the forecast, just as in the case of the euro, 60% of experts expect the pair to grow, 40% – to fall. Indicators, especially oscillators, look very versatile. Graphical analysis on D1 indicates first the pair's growth to the level of 1.3120, and then a fall to the horizon of 1.2770.
Support levels are 1.2955, 1.2900, 1.2825 and 1.2770. Resistance levels are 1.3120, 1.3210 and 1.3285;       

- USD/JPY. Here, everything points to a slight advantage of the bulls, who will try to keep the pair above the 110.00 mark and move it as high as possible from this border. Thus, 55% of analysts, 70% of oscillators, 95% of trend indicators, as well as graphical analysis on H4 and D1 indicate a gradual growth of the pair. The nearest strong resistance level is 110.75, and the next one is 100 points higher.
15% of experts have given a neutral forecast, and 30% have voted for the fall of the pair. The largest number of signals about the pair being overbought have been given by oscillators on D1. The main support level is 109.70. If it breaks, the pair may fall to the zone of 109.00, and then to the horizon of 108.40. Reaching the January 06-08 lows in the 107.65-107.75 zone is still unlikely;

– cryptocurrencies. Finally, it happened: The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has crossed the equator and risen to 54, approaching the zone called "Greed". Is it good or bad? According to the index developers, it can be dangerous to open short positions at this moment. And what about the long ones?
65% of analysts believe that the upward momentum of the BTC/USD pair has not yet been exhausted and it is able to gain a foothold in the $9,000-10,000 zone.
An alternative point of view is supported by 35% of experts. Agreeing that the situation is somewhat similar to 2017, they draw attention to the fact that, starting from June 2019, we are seeing a series of decreasing highs: $13,765 on June 26, $13,170 on July 10, $12,320 on August 06, $10,480 on October 26. And it is possible that $9,000 will be the next local high, followed by another collapse.
But for now, the market is full of optimism, and the predictions of all sorts of crypto enthusiasts are breaking all thinkable and unthinkable records. The most modest is the forecast of the analytical firm Fundstrat Global Advisors, which has stated that in the coming year, Bitcoin is highly likely to bring investors more than 100% of profits. According to the Fundstrat co-founder Tom Lee, the most important factors that will contribute to the growth of the price of the first cryptocurrency are halving, geopolitical risks and the US presidential election.
The most "space" forecast was given by Blockstream CEO Adam Back. He is convinced that the dreams of Bitcoin worth $100 thousand and even $10 million are not so far from reality. Back has commented on the idea of one of the leading representatives of the cypherpunk movement, Hal Finney, who is historically considered the second developer of Bitcoin, after Satoshi Nakamoto. Finney suggested "as a thinking experiment" to imagine that Bitcoin has become the dominant payment system in the world. "The total value of the currency should be equal to the total value of all the world's wealth. Current estimates of household assets around the world that I have found range from $100 to $ 300 trillion. If there are 20 million coins, the value of each of them will be about $10 million, " Finney wrote. Beck noted that due to the rising dollar inflation, " this is closer than it seems." But the crypto prophet did not specify how much closer.


Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin

https://nordfx.com/

 
First, a review of last week’s events:
 
- EUR/USD. As you know, life is like a zebra: a black stripe comes after a white one, and vice versa. That was what happened this time as well: after the merry New Year holidays came the anxious expectation of a full-fledged war between the United States and Iran. But, a few days later it became clear that both sides want to avoid a full-fledged conflict, and the tension in the geopolitical field went gradually down, which is clearly visible in the oil prices.
Last week, everything went well for the US dollar at first. The US currency was growing thanks to new record highs in the US stock market and optimistic statements of the Fed's leaders. So, the President of the Federal reserve of Richmond Thomas Barkin said that the country's economy and the labor market in the United States looked strong. And according to Fed Vice President Richard Clarida, the current monetary policy of his organization is fully consistent with the state of the country's economy. According to forecasts, US GDP growth in 2020 may be 2-2.5%, or even more.
Up until Friday, January 10, the dollar was growing in anticipation of strong data from the US labor market. As a result, as expected by 45% of experts, supported by 85% of indicators and graphical analysis on H4, the EUR/USD pair fell to the support of 1.1100, and then by another 15 points. But the data on the number of new jobs outside the agricultural sector (NFP) disappointed the market so strongly (a drop of 43%) that the pair turned sharply north, jumping to the height of 1.1130. It met the end of the trading session at the level of 1.1120;

- GBP/USD. For the third week in a row, the result for the British pound is close to zero. Starting from the horizon of 1.3075, by Tuesday January 07, it reached the height of 1.3210, then fell to the support of 1.3010, turned around again and finished the five-day period at 1.3060, losing only 15 points during this time. However, as before, due to its rather high volatility, the pair did not deprive traders of the opportunity to earn: the weekly scope of its fluctuations amounted to 200 points;

- USD/JPY. The forecast for this pair was 100% accurate. Recall that, in the opinion of the majority of analysts (70%), supported by graphical analysis on D1, the pair's drop had to stop at the level of 107.80, having rebounced from which it was supposed to go to the 109.25 resistance, and then to the last December highs in the area of 109.70.
In reality, on Monday, January 06, the pair found the bottom at 107.76, turned around and went up. On Wednesday, the yen made another attempt to gain a foothold below the level of 107.00, however, it was unsuccessful as well, and by the end of the week, the pair, as expected by experts, reached the set height of 109.70. This was followed by a small correction, and the final chord sounded at the level of 109.50;

– cryptocurrencies. Indeed, it seems that a number of investors are considering Bitcoin as a financial haven. So, against the background of the confrontation between the US and Iran, the reference cryptocurrency reached a month-and-a-half high, breaking some important resistance levels. Fake information about a sharp increase in the capitalization of stablecoin Tether (USDT) on CoinMarketCap by $500 million also contributed to the growth. As a result, the cost of BTC soared to the height of $8,450 per coin.
The analysis of what happened last week suggests that the crypto market quotes begin to be increasingly influenced by algorithmic trading. Reacting only to the momentum of the price, which in this case was up, the robots began buying coins, giving an additional force to this momentum.
Soon after it became known about the reduction of tension around Iran, and that the information about $500 million is just a fake, the price of Bitcoin went down, dropping to $7,765, then went up again, reaching the height of $8,100 by the evening of Friday, January 10.
As a result of these events, the growth of Bitcoin, starting from January 03, was at a maximum of about 17%, Ethereum (ETH/USD) – the same 17%, Ripple (XRP/USD) – 22%, and Litecoin (LTC/USD) - 27%. At the same time, the total capitalization increased by 10%, and the Bitcoin Crypto Fear & Greed Index is another three points closer to its neutral position, reaching 41.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. Starting from November 29, 2019, the pair moved on an upward channel. On December 31, it reached its upper limit at 1.1240, and then changed direction, opening the year 2020 with a gap down. On January 08, it broke through the lower border of the channel at the level of 1.1125, but due to negative data on the labor market in the United States, the bears could not consolidate their success, and the pair finished the week session almost at the level of the breakdown.
Will it return to the limits of the ascending channel? 60% of experts do not think so. In their opinion, the dollar will continue to strengthen, and the pair is expected to decline to the zone of 1.1040-1.1065, the next goal is 1.1000. Graphical analysis on H4 and the majority (70%) of trend indicators on D1 agree with this development. The readings of trend indicators on H4 and oscillators on H4 and D1 can be considered neutral at the moment.
According to the forecasts of the remaining 40% of analysts, the EUR/USD pair will not be able to break through the support at the level of 1.1100, and it will return at least to the central line of the ascending channel, which will be in the zone of 1.1240.
Of course, the trends of the coming week may be affected by the escalation of tension around Iran. But no extra surprises should probably not be expected from the publication of macroeconomic indicators. On Tuesday, Thursday and Friday, data on the US consumer market will be published. On January 16, we will also learn the values of the German HICP consumer price index, which is projected to remain unchanged. The report on the ECB's monetary policy meeting may be more interesting, it will also be published on Thursday 16 January;

- GBP/USD. The UK is less than three weeks away from parting with the European Union. According to Bloomberg, to date, Brexit has already cost the country $170 billion, and by the end of 2020, London will lose another $90 billion. The annual economic growth has halved from 2% to 1%. The British economy is now 3% smaller than it could be if the relations with the EU had remained at the same level. The UK economy is lagging behind the G7 countries and, according to some economists, it has a long way to recover.
In the near future, the pound is highly likely to still move in a fairly wide side channel 1.2900-1.3200 with a Pivot Point in the zone 1.3000-1.3050. At the same time, according to 60% of analysts, supported by 85% of indicators on H4 and D1, the pair will continue to move to its lower border in the coming week. Supports are 1.3010, 1.2970 and 1.2900.
The remaining 40% of experts, in agreement with the graphical analysis on D1, believe that the pair, on the contrary, will break away from the central zone and is likely to reach the December 31, 2019 high at the height of 1.3285. According to the indications of graphical analysis, it may take about four or five days, after which it will return to the Pivot Point; 

- USD/JPY. Last week, the pair not only returned to the borders of the medium-term side channel 108.40-109.70, but also reached its upper border. Although 75% of oscillators and 85% of trend indicators are colored green, only 25% of experts believe that the pair will be able to rise to the height of 110.70. The majority of analysts (75%) side with the bears, as well as 15% of the oscillators on H4 and D1, signaling the pair is overbought. Supports are109.20, 108.75 and 108.40. Reaching the last week's lows in the 107.65-107.75 zone is unlikely;

– cryptocurrencies. We have already written that, according to TradeBlock, only 30% of BTC coins in 2019 were in motion. The remaining 70% are in wallets in a "frozen" state. Similar figures were received by Delphi Digital. According to its data, at least 59% of bitcoins purchased in the second half of 2017 have not moved anywhere. That is, their holders did not sell their cryptocurrency even in December 2017, when BTC soared to $20,000 on some trading platforms. Such data suggests that a stable layer of so-called holders has formed in the cryptosphere, who do not part with their coins even when the market is growing aggressively.
Perhaps they are waiting for 2040, when, according to the calculations of Benjamin Cowen, the price of Bitcoin can reach $1 million. According to Cowen, the history of the main cryptocurrency price shows that the market cycles are getting longer: it took 2.5 years to reach the first peak and 4 years to reach the second peak. Extrapolating the model of logarithmic regression to the price of Bitcoin, the expert suggests that it would take about 5.5 years to reach the next peak (after the peak of December 2017), and in 2023 the price of Bitcoin could reach the $100,000 mark. And the Bitcoin of $1mln cannot be earlier than 2040.
At the same time, of course, there is another opinion, according to which, under pressure from regulators, Bitcoin will go into oblivion, and it will be replaced by state and regional digital money. The ECB has started thinking about developing its own cryptocurrency, the BRICS countries are contemplating a single cryptocurrency and the Bank for International settlements has already held the first summit of G20 Central bankers, which discussed the idea of a global cryptocurrency.
But all this is a matter of the distant future. In the meantime, the highs and lows of the past week allow us to say that the BTC/USD pair has moved to a new level of $7,765-8,450 with a Pivot Point in the $8,000-8,100 zone. At the same time, only 30% of analysts believe that it will be able to stay in this corridor, while 70% expect it to fall to the $7,000-7,500 zone.


Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin

https://nordfx.com/

At the end of 2019, NordFX was prized with three more professional awards. Thanks to this, the company can now claim to be one of the most titled brokers in the world: the total number of honorary prizes and awards it has received since 2008 has reached 50.


According to the results of the annual voting on the website of the IAFT Awards, NordFX won the Best Broker in Asia for the second year in a row, where It beat many of its colleagues in the financial market by a large margin.
The IAFT Awards are organized By the International Association of Forex Traders, which includes more than 200,000 traders from different countries. Each of them can vote on the website of the award, which allows you to objectively evaluate the activities of a particular broker.

The trading community of the MasterForex-V Academy also expressed its trust and recognition of the company, giving NordFX the title of "Traders' Choice World Best Broker". As explained by the Chairman of the Jury and a member of the Rectorate of the Academy O. Voron, "in 2019, 52% of new real trading accounts of Masterforex-V traders and 46% at pro-rebate.com were opened with NordFX, which has once again confirmed the advantages of this broker."

The company also won in the main category of the MasterForex-V Academy, receiving the Grand Prix as the "World Best Broker" in 2019, ahead of all its competitors on 22 independent criteria for evaluating the brokers activity.
"It is a surprising fact," said Mr. Voron, " that NordF? has managed to create excellent trading conditions on all types of accounts, both for beginners and experienced traders, with a wide range of financial instruments, high quality dealing and trust-business relationships with clients."

Last year, NordFX was also named the "Best Crypto Broker" by the Fxdailyinfo portal, and  It received the "Excellent Affiliate Program" award at the Saigon Financial Education Summit, for its two-level affiliate program, which has already attracted more than 25,000 people from different countries.


#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #Forex #forexbrokers #signaltek #cryptocurrency #bitcoin

https://nordfx.com/

 
First, a review of last week’s events:
 
- EUR/USD. Holidays are for people to get distracted for a while from daily problems, plunging into the magic atmosphere of miracle expectation. And miracles happen, and financial markets are no exception, as we have already warned our readers.
In normal times, investors look either towards the riskier stock market, or seek to hide their capital in safe havens, preferring government bonds, gold and safe-haven currencies. But Christmas and New Year are unusual times, and the market is so thin these days that it can be managed even on small volumes. As a result, in the last decade of December, both the S&P500 stock index continues to update historical highs, and gold, along with the yen and the franc, show an impressive growth. And treasury debt obligations are not going to retreat from the won positions. New Year's miracles, that is! But, as you know, there are much less holidays in the year than working days. And the market returns to its normal state this week.
As for EUR/USD, starting from November 29, the pair is slowly moving along the ascending channel. On December 31, it reached its upper limit at 1.1240, and then changed direction, opening the year, 2020, with a gap down. The pair almost got to the bottom of the channel on Friday afternoon January 03, and then the pair returned to the central zone of the channel on a fairly dismal statistics on business activity in the USA (index ISM in manufacturing sector was below expectations and failed to rise above $50) and ended the week in the area of strong support/resistance 1.1160;

- GBP/USD. The week's result of the British pound was close to zero. Starting at 1.3085, it ended the five-day period at 1.3075, losing just 10 points. However, due to its relatively high volatility, it did not deprive traders of the opportunity to profit: its range of fluctuations over these days amounted to more than 230 points;

- USD/JPY. In contrast to the pound, which ended the five-day period with almost zero results, safe-haven currencies are growing rapidly against the dollar. Thus, the yen gained almost 135 points against the "American": starting from the horizon of 109.45, it finished at 108.10;

– cryptocurrencies. The digital asset market, as well as the Forex market, continues to sum up the results of the past year. For example, the online portal ForkLog has compiled a list of the most prominent and influential crypto persons in 2019. The top 10 is headed by the head of the Bitcoin exchange Binance Changpeng Zhao, in the middle of the list is the head of Facebook Mark Zuckerberg and the Telegram creator Pavel Durov, and the top ten is completed by Chinese President Xi Jinping and Ethereum developer Vitalik Buterin.
Bitcoin, despite all the rate hikes, rose by 110% in 12 months, the S&P500 index rose by 22.8%, and gold added 19% over the same period. The result for the reference cryptocurrency, in general, is quite good, but only for those investors who invested in the coin at the beginning of the year, and not in the mid summer. For the latter, a completely different, sad melody sounds.
Now let's move on to the results of the last week. And here there is nothing to talk about: the same side trend. The pair BTC/USD grows to $7,550 on Dec 29, then drops to $6,900 by 03 January, and then returns to where it started the week in the area of $7,300. In general, it is a complete disappointment for investors. But as for active traders who trade on short timeframes, with a leverage of 1: 50, like with the broker NordFX, the jumps of $650 is a good opportunity to make a profit.
As for the top altcoins, things are also flat here:  there is a movement in very narrow side channels with gradual consolidation for a third week running: Ripple (XRP/USD) is around $0.19, Ethereum (ETH/USD) – $130 and Litecoin (LTC/USD) - $42 per coin. The total capitalization of the crypto market has fallen to $190 billion, and Bitcoin Crypto Fear & Greed Index is gradually approaching its neutral position (now it is at 38), which, in fact, also indicates a stagnation in the market.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. Last week, we summarized the forecasts given for 2020 by analysts at JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, Bank of America Merrill Lynch, Deutsche Bank and a number of other global banks. Recall that, in general, they reached a consensus, predicting the fall of the dollar against the euro and the growth of the pair to levels from 1.1400 to 1.2000. The main reason was a slowdown in global economic growth, which should increase demand for riskier assets. Especially so since the US Federal Reserve, on the eve of the presidential election, under pressure from Donald Trump, is likely to continue to reduce interest rates, or at least keep them at the existing level.
However, there is also an opposite opinion, which is again tied to the US presidential election. It is noted that it is during the election years that the US currency shows particularly good results. In such periods over the past 40 years, the USD index declined only twice. But the euro fell in 9 cases out of 11. So, if you focus on these statistics, the dollar should be bought, not sold. Moreover, for Central Banks, it is still the main reserve currency, far ahead of any other assets.
As for the near future, 55% of experts, supported by 85% of indicators on D1, expect the pair to grow to the upper limit of the ascending channel at the level of 1.1240. The next target is 1.1330. The strengthening of the euro over the dollar can be also facilitated by the macroeconomic data, which we will learn next week. So, on Tuesday, January 07, the December value of the ISM business activity index in the service sector will be known, and on Friday, data on the labor market in the United States will be released. And if the number of new jobs outside the agricultural sector (NFP) decreases, according to the forecast, by 40% (from 266K to 160K), this will have a negative impact on the dollar. However, often the market reacts in advance to such predictions, so that immediately at the time of the release of statistics there may not be strong jerks.
In addition to these 55% of bull supporters, there are also 45% of experts who support bearish sentiment. 85% of the indicators on H4 and graphical analysis on the same timeframe side with them. Support levels are 1.1100, 1.1065 and 1.1000;

- GBP/USD. The situation with the pound is again confused and depends on how and what happens to the process of leaving the EU. The head of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, expressed concern that there is little time left for negotiations on the UK's relations with the European Union after Brexit. In her view, the 11-month transition period for negotiations is extremely short and may have to be extended. And her Deputy Frans Timmermans called on the British to immediately return to the bosom of the European family after the divorce.   
In the meantime, 60% of experts expect the pair to grow to the upper limit of the channel 1.3050-1.3215. The goals in case of a breakout are 1.3285, 1.3425 and the December 13 high of 1.3515. Graphical analysis, 15% of trend indicators on D1 and the same number of oscillators that give signals about the pair being oversold agree with this development.
The remaining 40% of analysts and the vast majority of indicators vote for the fall of the pair. The nearest strong support is at 1.2975, the goal is to reach the 1.2825-1.2900 zone;

- USD/JPY. Supported by graphical analysis on D1, 70% of analysts believe that the fall of the pair will stop at the level of 107.80, having fought off from which, the pair will first go to the resistance of 109.25, and then to the maximum values of last December in the area of 109.70.
30% expect that the strengthening of the yen will continue, so the pair will be able to fall to the support of 107.50, and then another 100 points lower.
As for the indicators, 100% of them are colored red on H4 and 85% on D1. Signals of the pair being oversold are given by 15% of oscillators on D1, which is often confirmed by the rapid change of trend;

– cryptocurrencies. Forecasts for the near future are as gray and boring as the charts of crypto pairs. However, the closer to the May halving of Bitcoin, the more green color and optimism of experts appear. 70% of them expect that the quotes will go up sharply. The picture is similar among investors. According to TradeBlock, only 30% of BTC coins were in motion in 2019. The remaining 70% are in wallets in a "frozen" state, in the hope of a future growth.
Of course, there are pessimists among analysts. According to their forecasts, the pair BTC/USD will soon have another fall. The new generation of mining equipment (ASIC S17 and T17) makes this process cost-effective, even if Bitcoin falls to the $3500-4400 zone, and this is where they believe the really strong support is located. But if the pair breaks through it, then we can talk about the end of the 10-year history of the world's first digital currency.


Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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