Topic: Nordfx broker: news, weekly Analytics - page 30. (Read 50129 times)

 
First, a review of last week’s events:
 
- EUR/USD. The Euro rose sharply on Monday. This is not to say that no one expected it. 35% of analysts and graphical analysis on H4 and D1 predicted the pair's rise to the height of 1.1100. Some may have decided that the growth is associated with the performance of the new head of the European Central Bank Christine Lagarde. But it is unlikely that this version is correct, since the words of this high-ranking official for the most part did not concern the prospects of monetary policy but were devoted to the prospects of the emergence of the crypto-Euro. Although, the jet of fresh air in the work of the mega-regulator could for sure contribute to the strengthening of the European currency.
The publication of business activity indices in the manufacturing sectors of Germany and the European Union, which showed a small increase, also added to the positive mood. But as for macroeconomic statistics from the United States, it did not make investors happy: ISM business activity indices in the manufacturing sector and the services sector showed a decrease. As a result, at its high, the Euro rose to 1.1116.
The end of the week was without surprises. As expected, such an important indicator as the number of new jobs created in the US outside of agriculture (Non-Farm Payrolls, NFP), increased by more than 70%. And the markets immediately reacted by strengthening the dollar by 60 points. Then there was a slight rebound up, and the pair froze at 1.1060;

- GBP/USD. It would seem that everything was supposed to freeze in anticipation of the parliamentary elections scheduled for Thursday, December 12. After all, the future of Brexit and the UK in general depend on them. But the British currency was climbing steadily all week, buoyed by predictions of an election outcome, weak macroeconomic statistics from the US and the progress of the OPEC + summit. The British currency is strongly correlated with the "black gold", and the decision of oil-producing countries to remove from the market, starting from January 01, 1.7 million barrels per day, also supported the pound. The GBP/USD pair put the final chord of the week at 1.3132, adding more than 215 points in five days; 

- USD/JPY. According to the previous week's scenario, the pair should have turned south, reaching the height of 110.00. However, it did it, remaining some 25 points away from this landmark point. And then everything happened exactly according to the forecast: a fall to the support of 109.00, then a pause, and a decline to the next support in the zone of 108.50. Not far from it, at the level of 108.55, the pair met the end of the trading session;

– cryptocurrencies. Twitter brought an unexpected piece of news. Rather, it was brought by the CEO of this social network Jack Dorsey, who said that the future of the cryptocurrency industry will be determined by... Africa. Why? Just because Africa... is very poor, and this will be one of the main reasons for the adoption of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies by the countries of this continent.
There may be some logic to this, but for now, what happens in the digital market is determined by the US, Europe and China. Last week, Europe distinguished itself. It turned out that the European mega-regulator is actively exploring the possibility of launching an official digital Euro. "Our goal," said the new head of the ECB Christine Lagarde at a hearing in the European Parliament, " is to create an innovative, reliable and integrated payment system in Europe. This will benefit everyone in the Euro area and significantly strengthen the Euro's position in the world." But then she added that it is necessary to assess all risks from such a step and weigh all the "pros" and "cons" very carefully.
As for the forecast for the past week, it was absolutely correct on the whole. Recall that, according to most analysts, the pair BTC/USD was in for a sideways trend in the range of $7,000-8,000. At the same time, 40% of experts did not rule out attempts to break the upper limit of this channel.
In reality, everything happened like that. Starting near its upper limit, the pair went down to the level of $7,095. Then, there was a sharp upswing on Wednesday 04 December, but the efforts of the bulls were only enough to lift Bitcoin to the horizon of $7,865. This was followed by a sharp reversal, a fall to $7,110, and then a return to the central zone of the channel, accompanied by a decrease in volatility to the range of $7,330-7,465.
Quotes of top altcoins, such as Ripple (XRP/USD), Ethereum (ETH/USD) and Litecoin (LTC/USD), generally repeated the movements of the "big brother". And despite the fact that they were in the green zone at the end of the working week, the result of seven days can be characterized as moderately negative. Thus, Ripple lost about 3.5% in price, Ethereum lost 5%, and the cost of Litecoin decreased by 9%.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. The USA and Europe expect three important events during the coming week, these are: the decision on interest rates by the Fed on Wednesday 11 December and the ECB on Thursday 12 December, as well as the scheduled elections to the UK Parliament on Thursday. And if the Fed and the ECB are likely to leave rates at the same level for now, some surprises can be expected from the elections in the United Kingdom. The results of the exit polls will be known late on Thursday, Central European time, and the final results of the elections will be known on Friday the 13th. Then we should expect a strong reaction of the markets.
Despite the fact that Friday the 13th enjoys a bad reputation among superstitious people, the forecasts of experts are not so pessimistic. 65% of them, supported by graphical analysis on D1, vote for the growth of the pair to the resistance of 1.1100, and in case the opponents of a hard Brexit win the elections in the UK, the pair can easily reach the height of 1.1175.
As for the forecasts until the end of December, most analysts believe that the pair will move along the Pivot Point 1.1000, making fluctuations in the range 1.0900-1.1100;

- GBP/USD. As mentioned above, the near future of the pound will be decided on December 12. In the meantime, the experts can only shrug. For those who prefer charts and candlestick patterns to fundamental analysis, let's say that the graphical analysis on D1 draws the pair's growth first to the resistance zone of 1.3175, then to 1.3370, and the New Year at the height of 1.3500. 100% of trend indicators and 85% of D1 oscillators support this forecast. The remaining 15% signals that the pair is overbought, which indicates a possible reversal of the trend down;

- USD/JPY. The pair is now within a strong support/resistance zone, clearly visible since April 2017. We can also talk about the sideway with the support at 108.25, which has started this fall.
Most experts (65%) believe that, despite all efforts, the pair will not be able to break through this support in the near future and therefore will move within the side corridor, which started last October. In their opinion, if we see weak enough macroeconomic indicators in Europe and Latin America, investors' attraction to the dollar as a safe-haven currency will increase. And given the difference in interest rates, the dollar will become much more attractive than the yen, which will move the pair up. The nearest resistance is 109.00, the next is 109.30, the target is 109.75.
Of course, the quotes of this pair can also be influenced by the course of the US-Chinese trade negotiations, and the results of the parliamentary elections in the UK. Therefore, a bearish scenario is not excluded, according to which the pair will rush to the minimum on October 03, 106.50. Intermediate supports are in the 107.90, 107.50 and 107.00 zones. 35% of analysts vote for this development, as well as 70% of indicators on D1;

– cryptocurrencies. The most important event of the coming week should be the launch of bitcoin settlement futures on the Bakkt platform on December 09. And it is not for sure that this will help Bitcoin. There is an opinion that this platform is a" hand" of the US Government, able to strangle the crypto market at the right time or, conversely, give it a breath. This version is confirmed by the fact that Bakkt CEO Kelly Loeffler is already sitting in Washington as a Senator from Georgia.
The pressure of regulators on the digital market and the desire to take it under control does not contribute to the growth of quotations of cryptocurrencies. And the threat of instant large losses simply scares away large investors. According to Bloomberg, this led to the closure of 70 cryptocurrency hedge funds in 2019. The number of newly created crypto-funds has also decreased twice compared to the previous year. So, the predictions of bitcoin apologists that this cryptocurrency will rise again to heights in the region of $20,000 by the end of the year are unlikely to come true.
However, according to Ceteris Paribus experts, almost 600 thousand BTC coins (worth about $5 billion) remain without movement over the past year and a half. This speaks to the hopes of private investors for the rise of Bitcoin. The reason for this may be Halving-2020. According to some "crypto gurus", the Bitcoin rate can jump by 4000% as a result of this halving. They cite the sharp jumps in the value of the main digital asset, which occurred after the last two cuts in rewards for miners, as an argument. After the first cut, it rose by 3420%. After the second – by 4080%. However, what happened to the Litecoin, halving of which took place at the end of the summer of 2019, shows that such rosy expectations may be in vain. The LTC quotes indeed began to grow on the eve of this event, but nothing happened on the halving day, and then the LTC/USD pair simply fell down.
Returning to Bitcoin, let's say that the forecasts of most experts for December do not portend the BTC/USD pair anything good. 65% of them see it in the $6,000-6,600 zone. However, once again, a lot depends on how the opening trades on Bakkt are going on. For now, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index is still in its lower third, at 29, which corresponds to the moderate fear of investors.


Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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"We only trade with NordFX!"- this motto was supported by hundreds of beginners and experienced traders who took part in a series of seminars that were held in Eastern Mindanao, Philippines.

The seminars, which aimed to learn trading in the currency and crypto-currency markets, were held in cities such as Davao, Tagum, Panabo and General Santos, bringing together from several dozen to several hundred participants. In addition to the well-known, with well-deserved popularity, trading tools and services of NordFX, the new products of this broker were presented to the audience, such as, for example, CFD contracts and investment funds, which included the shares of the world's leading and most profitable companies.

"Manila, Bukidnon, Cavite, Baguio, Laguna, Batangas, Cebu are just some of the places where seminars are also held and will be held," the organizers say. "Our task is not just to acquaint the Forex community of the Philippines with the opportunities and advantages offered by the brokerage company NordFX. The main thing is that the participants of the seminars get the knowledge that will make their trade more successful and profitable."


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First, a review of last week’s events:
 
- EUR/USD. it looks like the thanksgiving celebration in the US started not in Thursday 28 November, but as early as on Monday 25. The last week of autumn was unusually calm, and the volatility did not exceed 40 points until Friday, driving traders into hibernation. Positive data on GDP and production in the US were balanced by the growth of the consumer price index (CPI) in the Eurozone. And even the controversial law on support for democracy and human rights in Hong Kong, signed by President Trump on Thursday, coupled with a sharp reaction to it from Beijing, made little impression on the markets.
Recall that our previous forecast said that in the current situation, the pair will not be able to break through the support of 1.1000 and after one or two unsuccessful attempts, it will turn around and go up. That's exactly what happened. Even the breakthrough at the end of the week to the level of 1.0980 was unsuccessful, and the pair soon returned to where it started the five-day period, to the zone of 1.1015-1.1020;

- GBP/USD. In anticipation of the parliamentary elections in the UK, since the last decade of October, the pair is moving in the side channel 1.2780-1.2980. Thanksgiving in the United States only narrowed this channel to the interval 1.2825-1.2950, and the final chord of the week sounded at 1.2935;

- USD/JPY. The majority of experts (65%) expect that the pair will reach the height of 109.50 within the week. This forecast was justified by 100%. And even China's threats against the United States because of support for protesters in Hong Kong did not prevent the growth of the dollar. Threats remain threats, but the trade agreement must be signed. As a result, the pair rose to the level of 109.66 by Friday evening, and ended the trading session at the level of 109.44;

– cryptocurrencies. This is the market that, unlike Forex, never sleeps. And first a few words about the news background, statements and actions of financial mega-regulators. So representatives of the European Central Bank did not rule out the release of their own tokens. Even ECB Board Member Benoit Coeure, who previously called bitcoin "an evil creation of the financial crisis of 2008", supported the idea of "crypto-Euro" . South Korea went as far as to recognize cryptocurrencies, adopting a bill to regulate virtual assets. But the Central Bank of Russia has once again shown its negative attitude to alternative financial products, agreeing with the proposal to ban all payments with bitcoin and other coins.
But, of course, the strongest impact on the market this fall was the news from China. Recall that the regulator of Shanghai has recently decided to liquidate companies engaged in cryptocurrency trading, and the regulator of Beijing declared the illegality of exchange operations with cryptocurrencies. The mega-regulator, the people's Bank of China, announced its position on Friday, November 22, ordering all companies to eliminate any improper practices of working with crypto assets. Representatives of such an influential force as the Communist Party of China also support a complete ban on digital currencies. As a result, investments in bitcoin in China decreased by more than 15% at the end of November.
In general the cryptocurrency market has "shrunk" by more than $20 billion over the past week, which is almost 10% of its volume. But, despite this, the week, in general, can be called successful for bitcoin. Having found a six-month bottom at $6,585 on Monday, November 25, the benchmark cryptocurrency bounced back up, resting on a strong level of $7,800. In the period from September 26 to October 22, it made a strong support for the BTC/USD pair. And now there are a lot of chances to turn into an equally strong resistance.
Quotes of top altcoins, such as Ripple (XRP/USD), Ethereum (ETH/USD) and Litecoin (LTC/USD), generally repeated the movements of the "big brother". However, if compared to Friday, November 22, Bitcoin grew by about 5%, altcoins were only able to win back losses, returning to their original positions.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. We would like to hope that with the onset of winter, both bears and bulls will not finally go into hibernation. Moreover, these days we are waiting for a number of quite important events. This is the speech of the new head of the ECB Christine Lagarde and the publication of the US business activity data (ISM) in the first half of the week, Eurozone GDP data on Thursday, and the US labor market (including NFP) on Friday.
According to forecasts, such an important indicator as the number of new jobs created outside agriculture (Non-Farm Payrolls, NFP), can grow in the US by more than 40% (from 128K to 183K). Which may still lead to a breakdown of support 1.1000. At the moment, 65% of experts agree that the pair will be able to fall to the 1.0880-1.0925 zone, supported by 95% of oscillators and trend indicators on D1. There is another support on the way of the pair to the south: 1.0940.
The opposite view is shared by only 35% of analysts and graphical analysis on H4 and D1. In their opinion, the pair will go north starting from the support of 1.0980-1.1000. The targets are 1.1100 and 1.1175;

- GBP/USD. The results of the parliamentary elections, and, accordingly, the future of Brexit, will be known only in a week and a half, after December 12. For now, investors are focused on the statements of politicians and, for a small part, on the macroeconomic indicators of the UK, the EU and the US. From above, the pound is pressured by the decline in the yield of 10-year UK government bonds in relation to similar securities of its "competitors". From below, due to the correlation of the British currency with "black gold", it is pushed up by an upward trend in the oil market. And here it should be borne in mind that the OPEC+ summit next week may well extend the limit on carbon production, which will lead to a shortage of oil and an increase in its cost, especially in the III and IV quarters of 2020. In general, in everything that concerns the pound, there is a complete uncertainty so far.
Experts' forecasts look similar: 40% are for the growth of this currency, 40% are for its fall, and 20% just shrug. So, we can assume that the GBP/USD pair will continue to move in a sideways channel until the parliamentary elections, consolidating in the Pivot Point zone of 1.2900;

- USD/JPY. Most investors considered the differences between the US and China concerning human rights in Hong Kong unimportant. In their opinion, a trade deal will sooner or later be concluded, which will lead to a rise in the dollar, including the rise against the yen. The growth of the US stock market and the SP500 index, according to 85% of experts, will push the USD/JPY pair up to the landmark level of 110.00 already now (taking into account the slippage-110.25). However, the pair can then turn to the south and return first to the intersection of the horizontal support and the lower border of the ascending channel around 109.00. And then go down and even lower: the next support levels are 108.50 and 107.80. This scenario is fully supported by graphical analysis on H4 and 15% of oscillators on D1, according to which the pair is already in the overbought zone;

– cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin is still within the downward channel, which began on June 26. Some experts call the rebound that occurred last week a "dead cat jump", believing that we will soon see another collapse of the BTC/USD pair, now to the level of $5,000. However, according to most analysts, the pair will stay within the side corridor of $7,000-8,000 for some time.
About 40% of experts remain optimistic and hopeful that the upper limit of this corridor will be broken. At the same time, for example, the famous financial analyst Joseph Young, although confident in the long-term growth of the cryptocurrency market, does not exclude the fall of Bitcoin to $3000-4000. Martin McDonagh, co-founder of investment firm KR1, has expressed a similar opinion. "Now, swinging like a pendulum, the market tries to know where the bottom is once again", he says. "I think we are in the early stages of a bull market and we will soon see rising highs on the way to new heights," he predicts.


Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin

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First, a review of last week’s events:
 
- EUR/USD. Recall that the previous forecast focused on the uncertainty that has been reigning in the markets recently. At that time, the preponderance of the bulls' supporters over the bears was only 10%. 55% of experts voted for the growth of the European currency, against were 45%. As if responding to such a balance of forces, the pair grew slightly on Monday, November 11 and, reaching the level of 1.0900, moved into a sideways trend. It stayed there until Friday, when, due to weak European statistics (PMI) and the speech of the new Head of the ECB Christine Lagarde, it went down sharply. However, it could not break through the support of 1.1000 and ended the five-day period at 1.1020.
Ms. Lagarde added more fog and uncertainty to the markets, saying that Europe needed a new system of economic measures and that the European regulator would soon review its strategy. But what this new strategy will be is completely unclear, especially recalling that there is discord in the ECB Governing Council and there is no consensus on the resumption of quantitative easing (QE);

- GBP/USD. The UK is preparing for early parliamentary elections, on which both the situation with Brexit and the further economic situation in the country depend. There is no clarity for now, as in the case of the Euro. Therefore, both bulls and bears are looking for reasons to push the pair in one or another direction, in the economic news.
If we sum up the results of the past week, the victory has remained for the bears. Taking advantage of the fact that the preliminary PMI business activity index in the services sector fell below the critical level of 50.0 and amounted to 48.6, they pushed the pair down to the level of 1.2822. The final chord of the week was made at the level of 1.2835;

- USD/JPY. As already noted, the yen has been falling for almost all autumn, and the pair has been moving up, relying on the MA200 on the four-hour timeframe. At least four attempts to break through this support have ended in failure. And how the fifth attempt will end, we wrote last week, depends largely on the prospects of signing a trade agreement between the US and China. However, despite a lot of optimistic statements, there are no specific results yet. American negotiators seem to be ready for the meeting but are waiting for assurances from the Chinese side that Beijing is ready to commit to the protection of intellectual property and technology, as well as the purchase of agricultural products from the United States. Whether China will do it, and in what form, is a question. And so the fifth attempt to break through the MA200 undertaken in the middle of last week, failed as well. Having fallen to the level of 108.27, the pair turned around and finished the week session slightly above the specified moving average, at the level of 108.63;

– cryptocurrencies. The main "forecast", which most often sounds recently, can be reduced to only two words: "caution" and "pessimism". We hope that traders and investors followed our first advice, because the second one has once again justified itself completely: at the low on Friday November 22, Bitcoin lost almost 20%, falling from $8,500 to $6,820. The reason for such a bearish rally, according to many experts, were miners who began an active sale of their crypto assets. Some of them needed fiat to stay afloat and continue to work, and some, disappointed, just decided to leave the market.
An additional impetus to the sales was given by rumors from Chinese Shanghai about the visit of the police to the office of the Binance crypto exchange.
Top altcoins, such as Ripple (XRP/USD), Ethereum (ETH/USD) and Litecoin (LTC/USD), amicably followed the "big brother", Bitcoin. As a result, the total capitalization of the crypto market decreased by 15.8%, from $239 billion to $201 billion.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. The number of applications for unemployment benefits in the United States has risen again. The GDP growth in the fourth quarter is still not even up to 0.5%. All this makes investors think about the onset of a recession in the American economy. Next week we are waiting for the next batch of macroeconomic indicators from the United States, which will either confirm or refute the version about the possible next reduction of the Federal Reserve interest rate in January-February. Moreover, such a reduction may not be "traditional" 0.25%, but twice as much, 0.5%.
Of course, this largely depends on the final results of the fourth quarter and 2019 as a whole. But do not forget that 2020 is the year of the US Presidential election, and the state of the American economy depends on whether Trump will remain in the White House for a second term. For now, under his pressure, the Fed is implementing easing policies step by step and pumping the economy with dollars. A similar situation was in the early 2000s. Then, by lowering the rates, the Fed tried to raise production, and it resulted in a bubble of mortgage lending, which burst, leading to the crisis of 2007-2008.
At the moment, the vast majority of indicators are colored red. But in the situation of uncertainty described above, experts do not expect that the pair will still be able to break through the support of 1.1000. Graphical analysis on H4 and D1 also indicates that after one or two unsuccessful attempts to do this, the pair will turn around and go up: first to the resistance of 1.1090, and then even higher, up to the horizon of 1.1175.
Of course, the results of the next round of the US-Chinese trade talks, which Beijing wants to hold before November 28, Thanksgiving In the US, can greatly affect the quotes. 65% of analysts expect that a certain consensus will be reached on this issue by the end of the year, which will lead to the growth of the dollar and the decline of the EUR/USD pair to the zone 1.0800-1.0900;
 
- GBP/USD. In anticipation of the parliamentary elections in the UK on December 12 and a Brexit respite, the pair has been moving in the side channel 1.2780-1.2980 for the fifth week. Trend indicators and D1 oscillators are painted in neutral gray. The forecasts of experts can be called "gray" too (50% to 50%). The hearing of the Inflation Report on Wednesday November 27 is unlikely to push the pair beyond this channel. The situation in the coming week depends much more on the US than on the UK. And the clear progress in the US-China trade talks may give the pair a strong bearish impulse, lowering it to the support of 1.2650;   

- USD/JPY. The Fed is pumping the markets with dollar liquidity. But the Bank of Japan has been doing the same for many years in an effort to increase inflation and revive production. At the same time, the interest rate set by the Japanese regulator for the yen is much lower than for the dollar. So the Japanese currency is of interest to investors only as a refuge from financial storms. However, according to the chart, there have been no particularly strong storms since the end of the summer, and therefore the yen is falling, and the curve of quotations is steadily creeping up.
Now there is a consolidation in the zone of 108.60 yen per dollar. But progress in signing a trade agreement between the US and China may push the pair further up ¬ – to the level of 109.50. It is this movement that most experts (65%) expect from it in the near future.
It should be noted that in the medium term, even more analysts (70%) are waiting for the pair to turn south and return to the 105.70-106.70 zone. And at most, these expectations are related to the deterioration of US economic indicators and further quantitative easing by the Fed;

– cryptocurrencies. At the time of writing this forecast, the BTC/USD pair is approximately where it was a month ago, before the "space" takeoff on October 25. Recall that the benchmark cryptocurrency reached $10,500 then, adding 40% at its highest point, due to the news that Chinese President Xi Jinping had supported the blockchain development.
If you look at the chart, it is very clear that, since June 26, Bitcoin has been moving in a downward channel. And if this movement continues, we can expect first a sideways movement along the horizon of $7,300, and then another collapse, now down to $5,000.
The main hope of investors which may be able to support the bitcoin exchange rate is the 2020 halving. According to some of them, after halving in 2020, the rate of this cryptocurrency can soar by 4000%. They cite the sharp jumps in the value of the main digital asset, which occurred after the last two cuts in rewards for miners, as an argument. After the first cut, it rose by 3420%. After the second – by 4080%.     
At the moment, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index of bitcoin has fallen into the lower red quarter and is equal to 23, which corresponds to "extreme fear". According to the creators of the index, this indicator can mean that the market is in a strong panic, and it is probable that the growth will begin soon. After all, large speculators who bought coins, playing for a decrease to earn, must at some point start the game to increase. This, in fact, is the logic of the market.


Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin

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First, a review of last week’s events:
 
- EUR/USD. President Trump is plannng to be re-elected for a second term thanks to the strong growth of American GDP. Major US indices continue to storm historical highs. Futures on the S&P500 rose above 3100. The wave of purchases in the markets was spurred by the optimistic statement of the White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow about the imminent conclusion of a trade deal with China. At the same time, the Financial Times reports that, in fact, the White House is not happy that China is stalling and not offering significant concessions in response to the abolition of tariffs. And Trump himself does not want to cancel them completely.
Speaking in Congress, the Fed Chairman Jerome Powellpraises the US economy, calling it a "star", but at the same time, citing many factors, including inflation and trade wars, does not rule out another interest rate cut. As a result, his words, together with the encouraging GDP of Germany, stopped the downward trend of the EUR/USD pair at the support of 1.0990 and pushed the European currency up, allowing it to finish the week with a small plus of 35 points;

- GBP/USD. The UK is preparing for early parliamentary elections. Therefore, there is no special news directly related to Brexit. And in this situation, the market begins to react actively to macroeconomic indicators. Thus, data on UK GDP in the 3rd quarter became known on Monday, November 11. As we predicted, the GDP growth was +0.3% against -0.2% in the previous quarter, which pushed the pair up more than 110 points to 1.2900. Then, until Thursday, the dollar tried to play back losses. But at the end of the week, thanks to the head of the Federal reserve Jerome Powell, the bulls took the initiative in their hands once again, and the pair ended the week near the landmark level of 1.2900;

- USD/JPY. The more or less stable demand for the yen remained almost until the end of Thursday 14 November. The market hardly reacted even to the really weak GDP figures of Japan in the 3rd quarter (+0.1% compared to +0.4% in the previous quarter). All this allowed the Japanese currency to gain 100 points since the beginning of the week, reaching the critical point of contact with the MA-200 on the four-hour chart, which investors often use as a trend indicator. But the breakdown of the support and the reversal of the trend did not happen: thanks to the optimistic statements of Larry Kudlow about the course of the US-Chinese negotiations, the demand for protective assets fell, and the pair went north again, ending the trading session at 108.80 yen per 1 dollar; 

– cryptocurrencies. The forecast, which was supported last week by the majority of experts (60%), can be reduced to just two words: "caution" and "pessimism". It is in line with these two concepts that the benchmark currency follows, gradually declining since the end of October. As a result, the pair reached the local bottom at $8,420 on the evening of November 15, returning to the boundaries of the side channel of $7,800-8,600, in which it moved from September 26 to October 22.
The pair was below the 200-day moving average for the whole last week, and it broke through the support in the form of a 50-day average as well by the end of the week, which also did not contribute to the growth of bullish optimism.
Top altcoins generally followed the bitcoin, repeating its poor performance. Ripple (XRP/USD) was not assisted by the large-scale support company deployed by bloggers and media, nor by its inclusion in The Coinbase debit card payment list. Ripple shrank another 8% during the week, reaching a low of $0.2528   
Ethereum (ETH/USD) is struggling to keep from breaking the lower border of the three-week side channel of $175-195. Holders of this coin are constantly warmed by the idea that, thanks to POS-mining (proof of ownership), it may be recognized as a security in the future, which will cause an explosive growth in quotations.
Litecoin (LTC/USD) also found support near the bottom of the three-week corridor of $57-64. This level can be considered as a medium-term Pivot Point, around which the pair rotates starting from September 25.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. As mentioned above, thanks to the statement of the head of the Federal Reserve Jerome Powell and encouraging data on German GDP, the bears failed to break through the support at the level of 1.1000. After the GDP growth from -0.2% to +0.1%, representatives of the German government believe that the introduction of additional incentives to support the economy in the near future will not be required. Consumer demand together with government spending will be able to neutralize the problems of industry and exports.
It should be noted here that many macroeconomic indicators of the EU countries have recently turned out to be higher than forecast. However, uncertainty in the markets persists, and the preponderance of supporters of bulls over bears is now only 10%.  55% of experts voted for the growth of the Euro against 45%, who are convinced of the dollar strength. At the same time, both set modest goals for the pair. The goal of the bulls is its return in the corridor 1.1075-1.1175. The goal for the bears is a breakout of the 1.1000 support and transition to the 1.0940-1.1000 zone. Reaching the low of October 01, 1.0884, seems unlikely this week.
90% of oscillators and 80% of trend indicators on H4 side with the bulls. On D1, the picture is the opposite¬: 85% of oscillators and 75% of trend indicators are colored red. Graphical analysis on both H4 and D1 is also on the side of the bears and indicates a fall of the pair at least to the horizon of 1.0965.
As for significant events that can affect the formation of trends and cause increased volatility next week,  we are looking at the meeting of the US Federal Reserve and the ECB on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively, as well as the speech of the new head of the ECB Christine Lagarde and data on business activity in the EU and Germany on Friday 22 November;
 
- GBP/USD. Against the backdrop of the Brexit respite, it is difficult to say what markets reaction will be caused by the hearing of the inflation report in the UK on Wednesday 20 November. But as the conservatives build their election program with an emphasis, among other, on the weakening of the country's economy, one can expect a number of loud statements from them.
In the meantime, 60% of experts, supported by graphical analysis on D1, expect a reversal of the uptrend and the return of the pair to the November 08 low, 1.2765, and then its fall by another 100 points. The opposite position is taken by 40% of analysts in agreement with 100% of trend indicators and 90% of oscillators on H4 and D1. (The remaining 10% of the oscillators signal the pound is overbought). The nearest resistance levels are 1.2975 and 1.3015. The target is the height of 1.3100;

- USD/JPY. The yen has been falling for almost all autumn, and the pair moves up, relying on the MA200, which is clearly visible on the H4 chart. At least four attempts to break through this support ended in failure. And how the fifth attempt will end depends directly on the macroeconomic indicators of the United States and China, and the prospects of signing a "Peace Treaty" between them.
The White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow's optimism about an imminent trade deal with China in the coming week could be quickly negated by both his boss, President Trump, and representatives of the Chinese government. So, it is quite possible that the pair will be able to reverse the uptrend and, at least, move to a sideways movement.
Experts' opinions are currently divided 50-50. The situation is similar with the indicators. Therefore, we can assume that the pair is expected to move sideways along the Pivot Point 108.75 in the corridor with the boundaries of 107.80-109.50 for some time. The next support is in the area of 107.00, resistance –110.30;

– cryptocurrencies. If you look at what has happened to bitcoin in 10 years, everything seems to be fine: it has risen in price 100 times during this time. But it does not want to continue to grow. Those who were going to purchase this cryptocurrency as a long-term investment have already done so. And now the market belongs to short-term speculators, who play not only on the rise, but also on the fall. The mantra of such apologists as co-founder of the oldest Chinese crypto exchange BTCC Bobby Lee, that the price of bitcoin will rise to $500 thousand by 2028, does not affect them. The speculators are focused on quick profits, which can only be obtained thanks to the increased volatility of cryptocurrencies and the news that creates this volatility.
Halving of Bitcoin in 2020 will become such a piece of news. In the near future, it will be the hard fork Istanbul, which the creators of Ethereum are going to hold on December 4, 2019. Another piece of news is the launch of regulated bitcoin options on Bakkt, which is also scheduled for early December. These and similar events can cause sharp one-time jumps in quotations.
In our previous review we wrote that, according to Bloomberg analysts, the first cryptocurrency has a chance to fall to the level of $8,000 before the end of the year. The height of $12,000 is called as a possible high. As for the high of the year 2020, it is at $16,000. A similar opinion with his colleagues from Bloomberg was previously expressed by the head of the Binance crypto exchange, Changpeng Zhao. According to him, traders and investors in China can ensure the growth of the reference coin at least to such a height.
But this can be prevented by one event. A sensational statement was made by Jack Lee, founder and managing partner of HCM Capital. He believes that the People's Bank of China will issue its own digital currency in two to three months. And it is this currency that investors from China can switch their attention and capitals to.
As for the forecast for the very near future, since the BTC/USD pair has fallen to the boundaries of the side channel of $7,800-8,600, three scenarios are possible here. The first is bearish, according to which the pair will continue to move to the lower border of the channel. 25% of experts vote for it. The same number support the second, bullish, scenario. When it is implemented, the upper limit of the channel $8,600 will act as a support, starting from which the pair will go up. The nearest resistance is $8,815, the next ones are $9,130 and $9,470. And finally, the third scenario. According to it, the $8,600 level will act as a Pivot Point along which the pair will move to the east. This development is supported by the majority of analysts, 50%.


Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin

https://nordfx.com/

 
First, a review of last week’s events:
 
- EUR/USD. On Thursday, November 07, the US markets updated historical highs after reports of the US and China willingness to remove duties as new parts of the Trade Treaty are being signed. Speculators have turned their backs on traditional safe havens such as bonds, yen and gold. The European currency has also become cheaper against the dollar: investors expect the US macroeconomic indicators to improve after the US-China trade war ends. And although it is still a long way to signing a full-fledged agreement, analysts believe that Donald Trump will no longer make any sudden moves ahead of the upcoming US presidential election.
Last week 40% of experts, supported by graphical analysis, voted for the reduction of the Euro. 10% of the oscillators pointed that the European currency was overbought, which is a strong signal for the trend to change. In the case of a breakdown of the lower border of the side channel 1.1075-1.1175, the bearish scenario provided for a decrease of the pair to support in the 1.1000 zone. This was what happened in reality: by the end of the week session, the pair was at 1.1016, and the final chord was set at 1.1020;

- GBP/USD. As expected, the Bank of England left the interest rate unchanged at 0.75%. But what analysts did not expect was that two of the nine members of the monetary policy Committee would vote to cut the rate to 0.50%. These two votes were enough for the pound to lose more than 70 points.
In general, as expected, the pound followed in the wake of the Euro. And if the EUR/USD pair lost about 150 points in five days, the British currency fell by 170 points, ending the week at 1.2780;     

- USD/JPY. As mentioned above, the progress in the US-China talks reflected on the attractiveness of the yen as a safe-haven currency. As a result, the fall of the Japanese currency against the dollar at the maximum on Thursday 07 November amounted to 130 points. The pair met the end of the five-day period at the level of 109.22;

– cryptocurrencies. As for the news background, so strongly affecting the quotes of digital currencies, the past week was not particularly outstanding. Therefore, Bitcoin quietly moved along the consolidation line in the corridor $9,100-9,500 until Friday. However, November 08 brought disappointment to investors and traders who opened long positions. The reference cryptocurrency went down sharply and, having lost 6% of its value in a few hours, found a local bottom at the level of $8,680.
It is difficult to say unequivocally what was the reason for such a fall. Fans of technical analysis refer to the narrowing triangle on the 4-hour BTC/USD chart. The reason could be the news about another – the seventh this year – hacking of a cryptocurrency exchange. This time, hackers withdrew funds in 23 digital assets totaling about $500 thousand from the Vietnamese exchange VinDAX.
Speaking of digital assets. The past week is interesting because a number of top altcoins did not follow in the wake of the main cryptocurrency but demonstrated independent dynamics. Unlike Bitcoin, which went to the south, Ethereum (ETH/USD) completed the seven-day period in the same place where it began, and Litecoin (LTC/USD) put up by 5%.
Ripple was different. It should be noted that, despite the efforts of the management of Ripple, the clouds over this token continue to thicken. It "shrunk" by 90% in 2018-2019. The last week was no exception. The week volatility of the XRP/USD pair was about 14%, and it fell to the level of 0.2710 on Friday 07 November.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. In the coming week, we are expecting a lot of significant economic events. Among them the speech of the head of the Federal Reserve Jerome Powell in the US Congress in the middle of the week should be noted. Also, the formation of local trends may be influenced by inflation data in the United States on Wednesday 13 November, the Eurozone GDP estimate on Thursday 14 November, and data on retail sales in the United States on Friday 15 November.
The rate of inflation in the United States should be seen with a special attention, because if inflation for October is much lower than the forecast, the Fed may decide on the fourth this year's interest rate cut next month.
And, of course, the market will listen carefully to the news about the progress of the US-China trade war. There are many chances that the optimism associated with the decision of the parties to phase out customs tariffs will continue this week. Investors are also expecting some positive news from US President Trump's meeting with Chinese President XI Jinping in December. That is why 65% of experts voted for the further strengthening of the dollar and the decline of the Euro to the zone 1.0940-1.0990. The further target is the minimum of October 01, 1.0880.
Graphical analysis and indicators show a rare unanimity with analysts: 90% of oscillators and 100% of indicators are colored red.
Only 20% of experts and 10% of oscillators expect the pair to grow, signaling it is oversold. The nearest resistance zone is 1.1075, then 1.1110 and 1.1180.
And finally, the remaining 15% of analysts talk about a sideways trend. Over the past four weeks, the pair has formed a double-headed top, and experts expect it to stay at its base for some time, moving in the range of 1.0990-1.1075;

- GBP/USD. The UK economy is experiencing constant difficulties because of the uncertainty due to Brexit. There was a decline in the construction industry by 1.3% in the 2nd quarter of this year and a drop in industrial production, caused, among other things, by the closure of several automobile plants. For this reason, data on UK GDP in the 3rd quarter, which will be known on Monday 11 November, can cause serious jumps in the British currency. According to the forecast, GDP growth could reach +0.3% against -0.2% in the previous quarter, which will push the pair up.
The main driver of the GBP/USD pair will remain the dollar. As in the case of the Euro, 65% of experts, graphical analysis on D1 and the vast majority of indicators are waiting for its strengthening and the fall of the pound. Supports are at 1.2700, 1.2650 and 1.2550 levels.
As for the remaining 35% of analysts, they believe that after reaching the lower limit of the three-week side channel 1.2770-1.3000, the pair will turn around and go north. 15% of oscillators on H4 and D1 agree with this as well, giving signals that the pair is oversold;

- USD/JPY. The situation with the Japanese currency is similar to the Euro and the pound. It is also under pressure from improving macroeconomic indicators of the United States and China after the signing of the "Peace Treaty".
On Thursday, November 14, data on Japan's GDP growth in the 3rd quarter will be released. Analysts are already predicting a slowdown in the Japanese economy. So the Japanese yen will have another reason to weaken in the short term, with which 65% of experts agree. The nearest resistance level is 109.50, then 110.00 and 110.70.
Only 10% of analysts have voted for the strengthening of the yen and the decline of the pair, and 25% believe that the pair will move sideways along the Pivot Point 109.00;
 
– cryptocurrencies. The Bitcoin Crypto Fear & Greed Index deviated from the average value and moved closer to the fear zone by the end of the week. According to the classical interpretation, this position is a reason to think about opening long positions. However, investors have recently become much more cautious and expect all sorts of traps from sharp price spikes. 
60% of experts remain pessimistic as well. So, according to Bloomberg analysts, the first cryptocurrency has a chance to fall to the level of $8,000 before the end of the year. The growth of the BTC/USD pair, as already mentioned, will be hampered by sales due to fears of "burning". However, despite this, 40% of experts believe that bitcoin will still be able to meet the onset of 2020 in the $10,500-11,000 zone.
For those who do not want to be nervous, daily watching the schedule of quotations, here is  a piece of advice from the Director of the American bitcoin exchanger BitInstant Charlie Shrem. In his opinion, "the best way to invest in bitcoin is to hide 5 to 10 BTC in a cold wallet, and in such a way that you yourself can not access them for 20 years." "I do believe," he said, " that in 20 years 5-10 Bitcoins will be the money that will change your life for the better. Bitcoin will survive even a nuclear disaster, while banks and paper money will literally burn."


Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin

https://nordfx.com/

 
First, a review of last week’s events:
 
- EUR/USD. What was expected did happen: on Wednesday, October 30, the US Federal Reserve lowered the interest rate on the dollar from 2.0% to 1.75%. Naturally, the US currency began to fall, the pair went up, but the movement was quite moderate: the market has long been ready for this decision of the Federal Reserve. As a result, the pair hardly reached the level of 1.1175, returning to the medium-term support/resistance line, which began last March.
The key data on the US economy, which was released on Friday 01 November, didn't help the dollar a lot either. The number of new jobs outside the agricultural sector (NFP) in October was more than predicted (128K vs. 89K), but significantly less than the September value of 180K. The index of business activity in the manufacturing sector ISM was also less than expected (48.3 instead of 48.9). As a result, the bears' attempt to push the pair down ended in a fiasco, and after reaching the level of 1.127, it turned around, went back up and ended the week at 1.1165;

- GBP/USD. It was decided to add a few more episodes to the protracted series called Brexit. Britain never came out of the EU. The main character of the series, Prime Minister Boris Johnson, who promised to "die in the ditch" if Brexit does not take place on October 31, changed his mind to die. The EU has granted the UK another extension, and now the country is heading for early parliamentary elections on December 12.
The next episode of the series will be devoted to the adoption by Parliament of amendments to the law on elections. And depending on which way the ship of British lawmaking heads, it depends on whether Prime Minister Johnson can stay at the helm.
The Brexit postponed once again and the weakening of the dollar allowed the pound to strengthen its positions somewhat, by the middle of Thursday, October 31, the GBP/USD pair rose by 150 points, then moved into a horizontal movement in the 1.2925-1.2975 corridor and finished at 1.2937;     

- USD/JPY. As we predicted, the Bank of Japan left the interest rate unchanged at -0.1%. The growth of the yen last week was due to three main factors: the reduction of the US Federal Reserve interest rate, another slip in the preparation of the US-China trade agreement and, it is possible, the associated strong growth of long-term US Treasury bonds. According to Bloomberg, the Chinese side may not want to conclude any serious trade deals with the "unreliable President Trump." Trump, for his part, is unlikely to want to aggravate relations with China, so as not to damage the US economy in the run-up to the presidential election. So we can expect a long lull on this front.
Against this background, the result of the week was the strengthening of the Japanese currency to the level of 107.88. However, this was followed by a small rebound, as a result of which the pair put the final chord of the week at 108.16;
 
– cryptocurrencies. Fundstrat co-founder and analyst Tom Lee is confident that the stock market directly affects Bitcoin quotes. "Last Friday (October 25), the S&P 500 index began to grow actively due to the increase in the share price of a number of large technology companies. Bitcoin strengthened significantly as well. Many mentioned XI Jinping's speeches, but in fact everything could come together in the stock market, " Li said. However, he somehow did not take into account that the growth of technology stocks could be caused by the statement of the head of China regarding the popularization of digital currencies and blockchain.
Be that as it may, according to a report provided by Google Trends, thanks to the Bitcoin rally, the number of Internet requests on the topic of cryptocurrencies increased by 30 percent last week. But if the growth of Bitcoin caused the growth of requests, then the growth of requests did not affect Bitcoin in any way. As we expected, after such a shake-up, the market went into a calming stage, volatility gradually came to naught, and quotes, consolidating in the $9,250 zone, drew a figure known in technical analysis as the "pennant".
Following the main cryptocurrency (BTC/USD), such top altcoins as Ethereum (ETH/USD), Ripple (XRP/USD) and Litecoin (LTC/USD) did the same. The total market capitalization of the crypto market was not an exception, which is logical, its volume gradually decreased during the week from $257 billion to $239 billion.



As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. On November 1, the ECB began buying market assets worth 20 billion euros per month. On the same day, former IMF chief Christine Lagarde replaced Mario Draghi as head of the Bank. Under her, according to some experts, the monetary policy of the European regulator will become softer. That, as a consequence, will cause a decline in the Euro against the dollar.
But there is a reverse scenario. It suggests that under pressure from Trump, the US Federal Reserve will reduce the interest rate to zero. This will solve the problem with dollar liquidity and, providing the American market with cheap money, help Trump in re-election for a second term. The US government debt, according to the US Treasury Department, has already reached a record high of $23 trillion. And further printing of unsecured money could significantly weaken the dollar. Trump's pre-election intention to reduce the payroll tax can also contribute to the fall of the US currency.
This situation forces global players to be more cautious, as a result of which the monthly volatility in the EUR/USD pair fell to 4.5%. This happened only twice – in 2007. and in 2014.
If we talk about the very near future, the fall of the dollar and the growth of the Euro in the coming week is expected by 60% of analysts, supported by 90% of oscillators and trend indicators on H4 and D1. The nearest goal is the rise and consolidation of the pair in the 1.1200-1.1250 echelon. The next targets are 1.1350 and 1.1410.   
40% of experts supported by graphical analysis and 10% of oscillators giving signals about the European currency being overbought voted for the decline of the Euro. In this scenario, the pair is most likely to move in the side channel 1.1075-1.1175. And in case of breakdown of its lower border, there will be a decrease to support in the 1.1000 zone.
The formation of local trends may be influenced by the change in the ISM business activity index in the service sector, the value of which will be known on Tuesday 05 November. According to forecasts, it can grow from 52.6 to 53.2, which in the short term will strengthen the dollar;

- GBP/USD. Thursday 07 November will be dedicated to the UK. On this day, the Bank of England will announce its decision on the interest rate, as well as the planned volume of asset purchases. These figures are likely to remain unchanged. Therefore, of greater interest is the speech of the head of the Bank Mark Carney, in which investors will look for an answer to the question of how the regulator will behave in the event of a particular outcome of the early parliamentary elections. Even here, though, Carney may confine himself to phrases as foggy as London weather.
At the moment, the vast majority of indicators are colored green. 65% of experts also expect that, following in the wake of the Euro, the pound will improve its position against the dollar. The nearest resistance is 1.3015, the target is 1.3125.
The remaining 35%, together with graphical analysis on H4 and D1, believe that the GBP/USD pair will stay in the side corridor 1.2790-1.3015. If its lower border breaks, the next support is in the 1.2700 zone;

- USD/JPY. It is unlikely to expect surprises from the meeting of the monetary policy Committee of the Bank of Japan on Monday 06 November as well. Moreover, last week the regulator not only confirmed the immutability of its course, but also removed the deadlines for it. Now it's "not until 2020," but " as long as will be needed." Rather, the yen will be affected on Tuesday by the ISM business activity index in the US services sector.
At the moment the opinions of the experts are distributed as follows: 65%, supported by 75% of indicators, vote for further decline of the pair, 30%, supported by 25% of indicators, side with the bulls. Support levels are 107.50 and 106.65, resistance levels are at108.50, 109.00, 109.30 and 110.70;
 
– cryptocurrencies. Professor of Economics at Stanford University Darrell Duffy believes that within 10 years, Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies will be able to completely replace the usual banking system. And regulatory pressure on Libra and other promising projects is a big mistake. "Regulators will regret that they could not find a common language with Zuckerberg and other developers. A shadow cryptocurrency with such a vast community (Facebook) can easily bring down the financial system in a matter of months, " Duffy threatened.
However, when moving from a 10-year timeframe to a 7-day timeframe, the appetites of most analysts become much more modest. So, 50% of them are waiting for the continuation of the sideways trend along the consolidation line in the corridor $9,000-9,500. 25% believe that the BTC/USD pair can reach the $9,700-10,000 zone, and the remaining 25%, on the contrary, expect to see it around $8,100-8,500.
As for the medium-term forecast, 80% of experts believe that the pair will meet the onset of 2020 in the $10,500-11,000 zone.


Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin

https://nordfx.com/

 
One of the main priorities of NordFX is to improve the skills of traders, aimed at improving the results of their trading in the financial markets.

Constantly developing this direction, the company offers its customers the opportunity of both online and offline training. This is especially important in view of the constant updating and expansion of the range of products and tools that they can use in their work.

In addition to a wide range of currency pairs, NordFX clients can make transactions with major cryptocurrencies, including bitcoin and top altcoins, trade precious metals, oil, as well as open trading positions on major stock indices, such as Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Nikkei, etc.

NordFX Investment Funds are also of great interest, as they provide investors with access to shares of the world's largest companies, such as Apple, Ferrari, Boeing, Coca-Cola, Microsoft, Visa, Google, Alibaba and many others, even with a small capital.

At the moment, when visiting the NordFX website, the company's clients can take advantage of an impressive library and video library of educational materials designed for both beginners and experienced traders. This year Most Concise Forex Electronic Encyclopedia, written specifically for those who are just beginning to dive into the world of currency trading, has been published. And, of course, seminars are of great importance, which are conducted by both the company's employees and NordFX partners with extensive trading experience.

Thus, an event was held this October in the largest industrial center of Vietnam, Ho Chi Minh City, organized in an unusual form – in the form of a talk show, which was attended by representatives of TraderViet forum and NordFX, who answered questions from a large audience. During this talk show, each of its 130 participants was able to try their luck in a specialized quiz, share their knowledge, communicate with like-minded people, as well as get memorable gifts and souvenirs from NordFX.



It should be noted that this is not the only event held by NordFX in Vietnam. Just a month before, the company took part in the Saigon Financial Education Summit (SFES), and on November 09, 2019, we are looking forward to meeting everyone at Vietnam Traders Fair, which will be held in one of the most fashionable hotels in Ho Chi Minh City – Windsor Plaza Hotel.  The admission is free.

You can find the details at https://vietnam.tradersfair.com/.


#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin

 
First, a review of last week’s events:
 
- EUR/USD. Since it is not only the pound that depends on what happens in the framework of Brexit, but also the Euro, to begin with, we will tell you what the situation looks like with the UK's exit from the EU a week before this exit (if it happens of course). And the situation looks like... a vicious circle.
On the one hand, Prime Minister Boris Johnson refuses to withdraw his draft EU withdrawal Agreement until Parliament agrees to an election on December 12. But the Parliament does not agree, because the opposition wants Johnson to rule out the option of leaving without an Agreement with the EU, as well as for the EU to agree to an extension of the terms of this exit. The EU, for its part, before deciding on how long to extend Brexit, is waiting for the consent (or disagreement) of Parliament for early elections on December 12.
Is everything clear? Or not? Judging by the reaction of the markets, it is difficult to understand the current situation, but it is even more difficult to make any predictions. That is why we did not see any significant jumps in quotations last week. The Euro weakened slightly against the dollar, but this fall was only 100 points, and the pair ended the five-day session at 1.1080.   
In addition to the endless uncertainty with Brexit, additional pressure on the Euro is certainly exerted by the slowing European economy. Despite the efforts of the ECB, inflation can not reach the target level of 2%. In September, the European regulator lowered its key interest rate to negative -0.5% and announced its intention to resume the program of quantitative easing (QE). On October 31, the current head of the ECB leaves his post, and it is possible that with the arrival of the new head, Christine Lagarde, the policy of the European Central Bank will undergo some changes. But at the moment, from the point of view of investors, the advantage is on the side of the dollar, as the US Federal Reserve rate is positive and is 2%;

- GBP/USD. So, instead of bringing clarity, the vote on the terms of Brexit in the UK Parliament on October 19 confused the situation even more. As a result, "super Saturday" did not lead to super jumps in the financial markets, but caused only a smooth decline in the British currency by about 200 points, returning the quotes to the levels of seven days ago, to the 1.2825 zone;

- USD/JPY. Giving a forecast for this pair the previous week, we noted a complete confusion and discord among both analysts and technical analysis tools. It seems that speculators have lost interest in the Japanese currency for a while, as a result, the pair moved in the corridor 108.45-108.75 most of the time. Two attempts of the bears to reverse the situation can not be taken into account, as the pair very quickly returned to this super-narrow channel, only 30 points wide, closer to the upper border of which it put the final point, freezing at 108.65;

– cryptocurrencies. As one analyst put it, the head of Facebook "hammered the last nail into the lid of the cryptocurrency coffin" last week. More precisely, Zuckerberg and congressmen hammered it together during his appearance before the House of Representatives Financial Service Committee. Congressmen have not only expressed concern about the spread of cryptocurrencies in general and the Libra project in particular. They said cryptocurrencies pose a threat to the traditional currency market and could be used to finance criminal activity and money laundering. But this is not all: during the hearings, a proposal was made to think about a bill on a complete ban of cryptocurrencies.
As for Mark Zuckerberg, he said that Libra will not be launched until it receives the permission of the regulator. And in general, according to him, Libra is a risky project, and he, Zuckerberg, is not at all sure that this initiative of his is able to bring him profit.
Recall that shortly before, against the background of problems with the American legislation, Telegram "turned on the back speed" and postponed the launch of its TON cryptocurrency.
We have repeatedly written that the crypto market depends on the news background as much as possible. And the news from the US Congress led to the fact that on Wednesday October 23, the benchmark currency collapsed to a five-month low, shrinking by almost $1,000 in a day, and reaching the bottom at $7.330.
But the crypto surprises did not end there, and it turned out that it was too early to bury this market. On Friday, October 25, the market literally exploded, and the bitcoin exchange rate made an incredible jump of $3,000, adding a maximum of 40% and reaching $10,500.
This was the largest increase since February 2014., and it was caused by news again: that Chinese President XI Jinping supported the development of blockchain. At the same time, the editorial of the Chinese newspaper People's Daily, which reported on this statement, doesn't have a word about bitcoin or cryptocurrencies in general, but the bulls did not need them.
Following bitcoin, almost all altcoins from the TOP 100 went up. Ethereum (ETH/USD) jumped almost 30%, ripple (XRP/USD) – 31%, litecoin (LTC/USD) – 35%.
As a result, coin owners and traders who have already opened long positions on bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies were able to get a very significant profit. Those who "jumped into the last car of the departing train" suffered no less significant losses: the BTC/USD pair turned around very quickly and collapsed to the level of $9,055 – a powerful support on which it relied since mid-June.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. Some analysts believe that the coming week may be the "hottest" this year. In addition to the fact that the UK may leave the European Union on Thursday, October 31, the day before, on Wednesday, the US Federal Reserve may lower the interest rate on the dollar from 2.0% to 1.75%. It seems that the head of the Federal Reserve Jerome Powell has succumbed to the exhortations of President Trump. His office has already launched a $60 billion monthly asset purchase program In October, and now here is another step toward stimulating the American real sector. Powell does not want to call what is happening a quantitative easening (QE) for some reason, but perhaps he is right: a number of experts believe that there is just another emission of the dollar mass and pumping the economy with unsecured money. With a certain degree of probability, this is due to the upcoming presidential elections in the United States. And Trump, who is seeking re-election to the second term, is pressing the Fed to cut the rate further, down to zero.
Shortly before the Fed meeting, on October 30, preliminary data on US GDP will be known and, according to forecasts, it will show a slowdown in the economic growth in the III quarter from 2.0% to 1.6%. If so, Trump will get another lever of pressure on Powell and the Fed led by him.
As for other events of the coming week, it is worth noting the preliminary estimate of the GDP growth and inflation data in the Eurozone, which will be known on Thursday 31 October. Data on the US labor market (including NFP) and the business activity index from ISM will traditionally be released on Friday, November 01.
Summing up the forecasts of experts for the coming week, it has not been possible to form any definite opinion: 50% are for the fall of the pair, 50% are for its growth. A similar discrepancy is observed in the readings of indicators on D1. This is due to uncertainty and the decision of the Federal Reserve on the interest rate, and with the exit/non-exit of Britain from the EU.
It should be noted that even if there is no exit without a deal and Brexit gets a delay, it can still have a negative impact on the Euro exchange rate, as a result of which the pair will rush to the minimum of October 01 in the area of 1.0880, which can be reached during November. 70% of experts agree with this forecast. The main supports are located at 1.1065, 1.1000 and 1.0940 levels.
The signing of the agreement with the EU, supported by the UK Parliament, will push the pair up into the 1.1350-1.1400 zone. Resistances are at 1.1180, 1.1240 and 1.1300;

- GBP/USD. Most experts (60%) do not expect anything good for the pound in the near future. In full agreement with the graphical analysis on D1 and 80% of the indicators on H4, they are waiting for the pair to fall to the level of 1.2500. Supports are 1.2770 and 1.2580. 
On the other hand, 20% of oscillators on H4 already give signals the pair is oversold, and 90% of their "colleagues" on D1 are painted green. 85% of trend indicators on D1 are looking to the north as well, the target is the height of 1.3200.
There were only 30% of experts in the list of "green activists" this week. The remaining 10% refused to give any forecasts and, perhaps, they are right: British politicians are able to turn any arguments, calculations and forecasts to dust;

- USD/JPY. In theory, the targets for the yen have remained unchanged. Support zones are 107.00, 106.65 and 105.70, those of resistance are109.00 and 109.85. But this is in theory. In reality, long-term bonds, with which the Japanese currency is strongly correlated, remain squeezed in a narrow range, curbing the risk appetite of investors. Of course, the above events of the week, as well as the decision of the Bank of Japan on the interest rate on Thursday 31 October could fuel interest in the yen, but this is again in theory. With almost 100% probability, the regulator will leave the interest rate unchanged at -0.1%.
Interestingly, analysts at J. P. Morgan Chase believe negative Central Bank rates are a "bad idea" that only prevents economies from emerging from recession. 80% of the surveyed experts agree with them, expecting that the yen will continue to fall, the pair will finally break through the upper limit of the corridor 108.45-108.75 and rise a little further to the north. But the graphical analysis on H4 predicts the continuation of this sideways trend at least for the first half of the week;

– cryptocurrencies. So, during the week, the BTC/USD pair first rapidly lost $1,000 in price, then even more rapidly rose by $3,000, and then collapsed again, shrinking in price by $1,445.  Trying to give any forecast in the conditions of such volatility is a thankless task. Focusing on technical analysis tools is generally useless. It is necessary to give the market the opportunity to calm down a little and understand what the Chinese President really meant.


Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin

https://nordfx.com/

 
First, a review of last week’s events:
 
- EUR/USD. The main theme last week was undoubtedly Brexit. New Prime Minister Boris Johnson managed to reach a compromise with Brussels, and on Thursday October 17, the European Union Summit approved an agreement on the terms of Britain's exit from the EU and its date, November 01. This event, as well as the reduction of political and trade risks in Europe, Asia and America, "seasoned" with weak statistics from the US, opened the way to the north for the bulls.
The overwhelming majority of experts (70%) pointed to 1.1160 as the main target, and this forecast turned out to be absolutely correct: on Friday evening the pair managed to rise to this height, where it ended the week-long session;

- GBP/USD. Since October 08, the British currency has gained almost 800 points, or about 6%. And all this thanks to the hope for a coming successful completion of the" show " called Brexit, which has lasted for 3.5 years and od each all are quite tired. At the peak of optimism on Thursday, October 17, the pound was noted at 1.2990, followed by a correction and a finish at 1.2940; 

- USD/JPY. Recall that the opinions of the experts concerning the yen were spread equally last week: a third voted for the pair's growth, a third for its fall and a third for a sideways trend. And they were all right. At first, the pair fell slightly to the level of 108.02. Then it rose a little, to the level of 108.90, then moved sideways and finished almost where it was a week ago, in the Pivot Point zone 108.40-108.45; 

– cryptocurrencies. Twitter users have estimated that the price of the main cryptocurrency has increased by 838.078.685% over the past ten years. But it seems that such space takeoffs are no longer worth waiting for. Not so long ago, Bitcoin was pushed up by the news of the launch of major projects such as Libra by Facebook and TON by Telegram. (Though it's not really clear why. After all, if both of these coins appeared, they would constitute a powerful competition to Bitcoin). But many governments and regulators have turned on the Facebook project, and Telegram has postponed the launch of TON altogether amid problems with American legislation. Thus, both of these drivers, if not completely disappeared, are at least greatly weakened. And this could not but affect the crypto market. Over the past ten days, its capitalization has fallen from $236 billion to $224 billion, and the price of Bitcoin, as most of our experts had expected, has fallen to the lower limit of the side corridor of $7,795-8,700.
Ethereum (ETH/USD) and Litecoin (LTC/USD) dutifully followed to the south in the wake of the main cryptocurrency. But as for the Ripple (XRP/USD), it shows a stubborn character for the last four weeks. During this time, the price of the coin rose by 40%, returning to a strong medium-term support/resistance level in the 0.30 zone. Most likely, this rise is caused by a number of positive news related directly to the company itself.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- GBP/USD. We put this pair before the Euro/Dollar because everything that will happen to the pound in the coming week will have a powerful impact on the quotes of the other leading currencies.
In fact, the new Brexit agreement is basically the same text that the previous Prime Minister Theresa May failed for three times to "push" through the British Parliament. And now on Saturday 19 October, Prime Minister Boris Johnson will try to do it. And without Parliamentary approval, the deal with the EU will not take place.
The main difference of Johnson's version is the absence of the so-called "Irish backstop", because of which the UK risked remaining in the European customs Union. But Johnson failed to completely close this border gap, and Northern Ireland will still have to obey EU trade rules. And in this, many see a threat of the collapse of the United Kingdom. The Democratic unionist party of Northern Ireland is unhappy as well. "We do not intend to vote for this project," said the DUP leader Arlene Foster. "It's not the end yet. It's not even the beginning of the end! »
So, for the first time since the 1982 Falklands war, MPs will cancel their weekend plans and meet for an emergency meeting. When this forecast is written, we do not yet know how "super Saturday" ends. But a simple count shows that Johnson may be a few votes short and the vote will fail and bring back the old uncertainty about the outcome of Brexit.
In any case, there is a lot of chance that on Monday, October 21, the markets will open with a big gap. Almost 20% of oscillators already indicate the British currency is overbought. And in case of Johnson's defeat, we will see a powerful counterattack of the bears and the return of the pair to the lows of the first decade of October in the area of 1.2200. (Supports 1.2515, 1.2380 and 1.2280). If the Agreement is approved, the pound has a lot of chances to exceed this year's maximum at 1.3380.
If we move from the weekly forecast to the medium-term, it becomes clear that even in the case of a regulated Brexit, the pound will still be under pressure. Accustomed to working within the EU, the UK economy, left alone, will surely begin to experience serious difficulties, which will force the Bank of England to cut interest rates and take a number of serious steps to ease monetary policy. In such a situation, the pound has a lot of chances to roll back from the highs and return to the 1.3100 zone; 

- EUR/USD. In the coming week, the interest rate decisions of the People's Bank of China on Monday 21 October and the ECB on Thursday 24 October will be known. And if the rate on the Euro is likely to remain unchanged, Beijing may present markets with a small surprise. The data on business activity in Germany, which will also be released next Thursday, are also of interest. But, as already mentioned, the main trend of the pair will be set by the pound, which will either pull the Euro up, or overturn it by a hundred or two points. The bears ' targets are September-October lows of 1.0850-1.0925, the bulls' targets are 1.1250-1.1350.
At the moment, the majority of experts (80%) expect that Boris Johnson will be able to get a majority of votes in Parliament, and only 20% predict the fall of the pair. It is interesting that in the transition to the medium-term forecast, the balance of forces is mirrored, and here 80% are waiting for the decline of the pair to the zone 1.0800-1.0900 by the end of the year;

- USD/JPY. The targets for the yen remained unchanged. Support zones – 107.00, 106.65 and 105.70, resistance - 109.00 and 109.85. It is only the mood of the experts that has changed. If 60% of them vote for the growth of the pair the next week, and 40% are for the fall, then in the medium – term interval everything is vice versa: 40% are for the growth and 60% are for the fall.
There is no unity among the indicators either. If on H4 80% of oscillators are colored red and 20% signal the pair is oversold, then on D1 80% have changed the color to green, and 20% believe that the pair is oversold.
The result of the discord is summed up by the graphical analysis on D1, which draws first a fall to the level of 107.50, and then a rise to the height of 109.00;

– cryptocurrencies. The BTC/USD pair has been moving along the $7,795-8,700 corridor with a Pivot Point of $8,300 for almost a month, starting from September 25. The same thing happened from mid-May to mid-June. But then, if you follow the Elliott wave theory, it was a respite (or corrective wave #4) between the impulse waves #3 and # 5 of the uptrend (which is clearly visible on the W1 timeframe). Now the picture is reversed and, following the same Elliott, we see the end of wave #5 already on a downtrend. In theory, we should expect an upward correction of the pair, especially since the MFI indicator on H4, D1 and W1 is in the lower, critical zone, and the MACD on H4 and D1 indicates divergence. But it has long been noticed that when it comes to cryptocurrencies, graphic and technical analysis often slip. Much more important here are the news background and manipulations of large speculators. The fact remains that over the past four months, the price of Bitcoin has decreased by more than 40%, and the crypto-currency "Fear & Greed Index" is still in the "Fear" zone.
Pessimistic sentiment is supported by 60% of experts who expect a breakthrough of the lower border of the corridor and the fall of the BTC/USD pair to the $7,000-7,400 zone. The remaining 40% of analysts do not expect Bitcoin to take off either. In their opinion, in the coming week, the reference cryptocurrency will be traded in the range of $8,300-8,700 per 1 coin.


Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin

https://nordfx.com/

 
First, a review of last week’s events:
 
- EUR/USD. Last week was marked by two events. The first is progress on the next stage of trade negotiations between the US and China, the beginning of which was called by president Trump "very, very good." The second is a breakthrough in the Brexit negotiations. Increased hopes for a regulated UK exit pushed the pound up, followed by a pull to the North by the European currency as well. It was facilitated by the minutes of the ECB meeting published on Thursday, October 10, which confirmed that the Bank is coming to the end of the easing policy (QE).  As a result, the pair was able to rise to 1.1062;

- GBP/USD. Only 35% of experts believed in the new Prime Minister Boris Johnson and counted on a miracle. And now the miracle did happen, and even exceeded all expectations. Analysts were waiting for the pair to rise to the height of 1.2525, in reality, the pound soared by more than 500 points, reaching the height of 1.2708. The reason was a breakthrough in the negotiations on the Irish border, following which Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadkar said that they were "very positive and promising." It is possible that Johnson is ready to introduce special terms for Northern Ireland and allow it to remain in the European Customs Union for four years after Brexit.
According to experts, the GBP/USD pair was so oversold that any positive news was able to cause the pound to rise. And in this case, the positive turn in the negotiations worked like a trigger, allowing the British currency to become heavier by 4% in just a couple of days;

- USD/JPY. But for the yen, unlike the pound, it seems that hard days have come: thanks to the growth of risk sentiment, the Japanese currency has undergone a massive sell-off, resulting in its quotes’ fall by almost 200 points, to the level of 108.62 yen per dollar. Among the reasons are several. These are hopes for a favorable outcome of the US-China trade war, progress in Brexit negotiations, the latest minutes of the ECB meeting and a sharp rise in the US bond yields;

- Cryptocurrencies. The capitalization of the crypto market ($234 billion) is still small compared to traditional markets (the gold market is estimated at $9 trillion, the stock market – at $66 trillion, the bond market – at $86 trillion) and does not exceed two tenths of a percent of their total assets. But, despite this, the topic of cryptocurrencies constantly arises on the crest of the world politics.
So, the famous American billionaire Daniel Steven Pena said that cryptocurrencies can be the result of a conspiracy of Russia against the United States, and President Vladimir Putin himself is behind the creation of Bitcoin. This statement was echoed by the appeal of members of the House of Representatives of the US Congress to the Head of the Fed with a proposal to issue a crypto-dollar. With this step, the authors of the appeal want to protect American finances from the influence of someone else's hostile cryptocurrency.
A similar initiative was made by German Vice-Chancellor and Finance Minister Olaf Scholz, who called for the release of the digital Euro. "We should not leave this space to China, Russia, the United States or any of the private suppliers," he said.
Crypto-dollar and crypto-Euro are things of the distant future, but already now governments and Central banks are beginning to actively fight against potential independent competitors. Zuckerberg's (Facebook) release of his own Libra coin came under intense pressure. The next in line is TON-coin, the launch of which Telegram is rapidly approaching.
For now, the main cryptocurrency on which the entire market is based, of course, remains Bitcoin. The forecast for the past week, which was supported by the majority of experts (75%), assumed a lateral movement of the BTC/USD pair with some dominance of bears, able to lower the pair to $7,500-7,700. However, on Monday, bitcoin found a local bottom at $7,795, and then turned around and went up. The change in trend may have been due to the launch of the p2p platform from Binance, where Bitcoin and Ethereum will be traded for Chinese yuan.
On Wednesday, October 09, the pair managed to overcome a two-week resistance in the $8,350 zone and on Friday reached a high of $8,815. After that, it returned to the $8,350 horizon, which may now become a new strong support area for it.
Altcoins obediently repeated the movements of the reference cryptocurrency for the whole week. However, while the swing of Ethereum (ETH/USD) and ripple (XRP/USD) was about 17%, Litecoin (LTC/USD) behaved somewhat calmer, demonstrating volatility at the level of 13%.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- UR/USD. Regarding the final outcome of the US-China trade negotiations, markets are showing reasonable restraint, expecting endless disputes to continue, and maybe even their complete collapse and the introduction of new duties. In the coming week, we also expect some important news that can have a strong impact on the rates of the currencies in question. Among them are statistics from China on Monday October 14 and Friday October 18, as well as the UK and Eurozone inflation reports on Tuesday October 15 and Wednesday October 17. On Thursday, increased volatility may be caused by the report on industrial production in the United States. A significant decrease in this indicator is predicted: from 0.6% to 0.1%. And if the actual value coincides with the forecast, one can expect a decline in the dollar.
The fall of the dollar and the rise of the pair are expected by 70% of experts, whose forecast is supported by the readings of 75% of oscillators and graphical analysis on H4 and D1. The support zone in case of growth of the pair is 1.1000. Targets are 1.1075, 1.1100 and 1.1160.
The opposite point of view is held by 30% of analysts and 20% of oscillators, giving signals about the pair being overbought. The targets are 1.1000, 1.0940, 1.0925 and the low of 01 October 1.0880;

- GBP/USD. In fact, it is too early to exult over the successful conclusion of Brexit. Johnson still needs the terms of the deal with the EU be approved by Parliament. And this, we recall, the previous Prime Minister of Great Britain Theresa May failed to do, four times. The negotiations with Ireland have also not yet concluded. In addition, the European Council summit on Brexit will be held on the coming Thursday and Friday. Each of these steps can slow down the process of concluding a deal or even become an insurmountable obstacle in its path. In the latter case, the EU is ready to provide a new extension until the summer of 2020 to still ensure an orderly exit of the UK from the EU.
These difficulties, as well as too rapid growth of the pound last week, led to the fact that now 75% of experts expect a reversal of the trend and the fall of the British currency to the 1.2200 zone. This scenario is supported by graphical analysis on D1 and 15% of oscillators on H4 and D1, signaling the pound is overbought.
The vast majority of oscillators and trend indicators, as well as 25% of experts waiting for the strengthening of the pound and the rise of the pair to the height of 1.2800, still believe in the luck of Boris Johnson. Naturally, the emergence of serious positive news regarding Brexit, not to mention the signing of the Agreement, can lead to another jerk of the pound to cosmic heights;

- USD/JPY. On H4, 100% of trend indicators look up, on D1, a little less – 90%. 75% of oscillators are colored green on both H4 and D1, the remaining 15% give signals about the pair being overbought. The graphical analysis on D1 indicates a decline of the pair to the horizon of 106.65, and then a return to the height of 108.40.
As for the experts, their opinions are equally divided: a third are for the pair's growth, a third are for the fall and a third vote for the sideways trend. The support zones are 107.00, 106.65 and 105.70, the zones of resistance are109.00 and 109.85;

- Cryptocurrencies. As mentioned above, breaking through the two-week resistance at $8,350, Bitcoin may now turn this zone into a strong enough support. Moreover, the cryptocurrency Fear & Greed Index, rising from the red zone of "extreme fear", has almost passed the orange zone of "Ordibary Fear" and is approaching its neutral position. If this happens, the next target for the BTC/USD pair will be to consolidate in the $9,000 area. However, this forecast is supported by only 35% of analysts. Most of them (65%) have sided with the bears, expecting the pair to decline first to the horizon of $8,000, and then to $400 below.
Another "cosmic" forecast, which we regularly talk about, was the statement of the creator of the famous antivirus John McAfee that in 2020 the price of Bitcoin will reach $1 million. The main impetus for reaching the bullish dynamics, according to him, will be the limited number if coins as well as the reduction in the number of altcoins, which will make the main coin the only reliable and stable asset.
Analysts of the TIE also predict a gloomy future for altcoins. According to their observations, interest in altcoins is rapidly falling, approaching zero in some cases. So, it is possible that out of thousands of coins only a few of the largest, such as Ethereum or Libra will remain afloat in a few months.


Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin

https://nordfx.com/

 
First, a review of last week’s events:
 
- EUR/USD. Most experts (55%) expected a correction of the pair up to the zone of 1.1000. This scenario was also supported by 15% of the oscillators on D1 and W1, giving clear signals about the pair being oversold. This forecast can be considered fulfilled by 100%, since the EUR rate rose on Thursday September 3 to the level of 1.0999 USD. The warning of the graphical analysis was also true that before going to the level of 1.1000, the pair may expect a decline, which it showed at the very beginning of the week.
The growth of the European currency was supported by weak macro statistics from the USA, caused in many respects by the trade wars waged by President Trump. Thus, the ISM index of business activity in the service sector showed a fall from 56.4 to 52.6. After its publication on October 3, the market drew attention to the release on the American labor market, which traditionally saw the light on the first Friday of the month, October 4. The number of new jobs created in the USA outside the agricultural sector (Non-Farm Payrolls) fell by almost 20% (from 168K to 136K), which also indicates the approach of a recession.
It is such indicators as ISM and NFP that determine the steps taken by the US Federal Reserve to change the interest rate. Therefore, the key event was the speech of Jerome Powell at the very end of the working week, from which investors hoped to find out the Fed's plans for the coming months.
Powell is famous for his ability to say a lot and not say anything specific. It so happened this time as well. As a result, after making several light jumps, the pair froze at around 1.0980;
 
- GBP/USD. In the British Isles, the first week of October was surprisingly calm. Nothing extraordinary happened around Brexit. Therefore, the [air ended up on Friday October 3rd in the same zone as it had been seven days before. Most of the time it moved in the side channel in the range 1.2275-1.2350, although both the bulls and the bears made several attempts to go beyond it. So, the local low was fixed at 1.2205, the high was at 1.2415, and the range of exchange rate fluctuations was 210 points;
 
- USD/JPY. As for the yen, it was expected that investors would wait for the developments in the US-China trade war. The yen could be pushed up by a decrease in the yield on American bonds. As a result, the fog around the negotiations between Washington and Beijing did not clear, and the yield on 10-year US government bonds fell by 12%. Thanks to these factors, as well as the weak macroeconomic statistics from the US, the yen rose, reaching on Thursday the values of a month ago in the area of 106.50. The final point of the week was set by the Japanese currency at 106.85;
 
- Cryptocurrencies. The cryptocurrency “Fear & Greed Index” rose from the red zone of “extreme fear” to the orange zone of “ordinary fear”. The fear that Bitcoin could fall even lower has not gone away. The market just calmed down and came to its senses a bit after an unsuccessful start of the Bakkt crypto futures trading and the ensuing panic on September 24th. Traders and investors took a break, which is clearly visible on the BTC/USD chart. The maximum volatility of the pair last week occurred on September 30 - October 01 and amounted to about 9%. For the rest of the time, the pair moved along the $8.190 horizon in an even narrower side channel, not exceeding 5%.
Following the main cryptocurrency, the main altcoins, Ethereum (ETH/USD), Litecoin (LTC/USD), Ripple (XRP/USD), etc. also went into the side trend. The total capitalization of the cryptocurrency market returned to the values of mid-May 2019 and amounts to just over $223 billion.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. Over the coming week, we are waiting for a fairly large number of events, including numerous speeches by the head of the US Federal Reserve J. Powell in the first half of the week. However, the most important events will undoubtedly be the publication of the minutes of the Fed Governing Council on Wednesday October 9, and the report on the meeting of their colleagues from the ECB on Thursday October 10. Both of these documents should shed the light on the monetary and financial policies of the United States and the EU in the near future.
At the moment, the votes of experts are distributed as follows. 60% of them, supported by graphical analysis on D1, vote in favor of the pair falling and attempting to update the October 01 low 1.0880. The remaining 40% of analysts, in full agreement with the graphical analysis on H4, adhere to the opposite point of view, believing that the European currency has not yet exhausted its potential for growth and the pair will be able to rise to the zone of 1.1100.
And finally, the indicators. Both oscillators and trend indicators on H4 are mostly colored green, on D1, half of them already change color to red, and on W1, red becomes dominant. At the same time, about 15% of the oscillators are already signaling the pair is overbought on H4 and D1;
 
- GBP/USD. On Tuesday, October 08, the speech of the head of the Bank of England Mark Carney is scheduled. However, it is not him, but Prime Minister Boris Johnson who now acts as the main newsmaker in the UK. And what he says, and even more so does, excites investors much more (no offense be told to Mr. Carney). But what Mr. Johnson will say and do is not yet clear to anyone (perhaps even to himself either). Only three weeks are left before Britain’s exit from the EU, and it’s unlikely that Johnson will be able to agree with Brussels on the terms of a deal advantageous for his country. So, either Brexit without a deal, or ... its another extension.
Although miracles do happen sometimes... But, as the survey shows, 65% of analysts, like graphical analysis, do not believe in them. Therefore, they are expecting the pound to fall further in an attempt to update September 3 low at 1.1960. The nearest supports are at the levels of 1.2200 and 1.2070.
It is only 35% of experts who believe in Boris Johnson and expect the best, they are waiting for the strengthening of the pound and raising the pair to the height of 1.2525.
Among the indicators, the situation is similar to the situation in the British Parliament: a complete mixture of red, green and gray colors, as well as discord regarding the pair being overbought or oversold on different time frames. So, you should not count on the help of indicators in making decisions at the moment;

- USD/JPY. Graphical analysis and 65% of experts count on the growth of the yen and the fall of the pair. Moreover, this is not only a weekly forecast, but also a forecast until the end of 2019. 100% of trend indicators on H4 and D1 agree with this, as well as 75% on W1. But among oscillators, the situation is different: 75% of them vote for the southward movement on H4, 60% vote on D1, and only 25% on W1. The goals of the bears are 106.50, 105.70, 105.00 and 104.45. The goals of the bulls are 107.55, 108.50, 109.00;
 
- Cryptocurrencies. Digital market fans continue to mesmerize investors with promises of sky-high profits. So, the developer of the famous antivirus software John McAfee claims that the price of Bitcoin can reach $1 million in 2020. He explains his forecast with a limited number of Bitcoins, 85% of which have already been mined. A more "modest" forecast is given by analysts at the German Bayerische Landesbank (BayernLB ).In their opinion, the planned halving of the mining reward for the next year could lead to an increase in the BTC price to $90,000, which at the current price of $8,200 will yield almost 1000% of the profit.
However, along with optimists, voices of the skeptics are heard as well, whose number is constantly growing. In the two years that have passed since the second half of 2017, cryptocurrencies not only failed to supplant traditional money, but did not even become any serious part of the financial system. They did not begin to be used on a large scale as a means of payment. Moreover, falling into the grip of state regulation, they simply lose their idea of a financial market independent of governments.
Currently, only 25% of analysts believe that Bitcoin will be able to rise above the $8,500-8,600 zone in the coming days. Most speak of a sideways movement with some dominance of bears that can lower the pair to $7,500-7,700.


Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin

https://nordfx.com/

 
At the end of September, the largest metropolis of Vietnam, the ten millionth Ho Chi Minh city, saw an event that attracted the attention of not only numerous specialists, but also those who want to gain experience in online trading and investing in financial markets. One of the participants of the Saigon Financial Education Summit (SFES) was NordFX, with an impressive team of this international broker at its booth.



The NordFX brand is already well-known in Vietnam. SFES also made it possible to introduce the summit participants to the latest developments of this brokerage company in the field of not only currency trading, but also work with cryptocurrencies, as well as portfolio and individual investment in shares of the world's major companies.

Another attractive tool for traders is the opportunity to profit from transactions with major world stock indexes, such as Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Nikkei, etc., as well as with indices that reflect the movement of leading cryptocurrencies.

The final chord of the summit was the awarding of financial companies that have deserved the greatest recognition and respect. The winners were determined by open online voting, as a result of which the NordFX brokerage company received the Excellent Affiliate Program prize for its two-level affiliate program, which has already attracted over 25,000 people from different countries.

It should be noted that it is easy to become a partner of NordFX, for this you only need to go through a short registration procedure.

You can learn the details of the terms and benefits of the program at https://nordfxpartners.com.


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First, a review of last week’s events:
 
- EUR/USD. The worse the things are for Trump, the better they are for the dollar. Such a conclusion can be made by looking at the quotes’ charts. Now, due to a conversation with the President of Ukraine, the US President is facing impeachment, and the dollar index has already risen to the highs around 99.00. The euro retreated another 100 points, as a result of which the EUR/USD pair updated its lows, dropping to the level of April 2017, and ended the week at 1.0940;
 
- GBP/USD. The dollar is growing not only due to the economic downturn in the Old World, but also to the growing concern about Brexit. The British Parliament has no way to deal with Prime Minister Boris Johnson, and he, in turn, is in confrontation with both Parliament and Brussels, which does not want to make concessions. In such a situation, Michael Saunders, a member of the Bank of England 's Monetary Policy Committee, said the Bank might be forced to lower interest rates, even if a no-deal Brexit is avoided.
Such a statement from one of the financial "hawks" pushed the pound even further down. As a result, as most experts predicted (60%), the British currency is weakened by more than 200 points, and at the end of the week session it cost 1.229 US dollars per pound;
 
- USD/JPY. Recall that most experts (65%) supported the bears by voting for the fall of the dollar and the return of the pair to the area of 105.75-106.75. Indeed, starting from the moment the trading session opened, the pair went down, reaching the local bottom at 106.95 by Tuesday evening. After this, a U-turn followed, and the pair returned to where it had already been seven days ago, completing the five-day period at 107.95;
 
- Cryptocurrencies. What the bulls were so afraid of did happen. Everyone understood that the three-month localization Bitcoin prices in the $10,000 area should, finally finish with a breakthrough. But just in which direction? The scenario we announced for the pair to fall to around $8,000 was supported by 35% of experts, who, as a result, turned out to be right. On September 24, the day already nicknamed Black Tuesday, the basic cryptocurrency flew down, losing almost 17% and reaching $8.115. (During the “minute flow” on the Binance crypto exchange, someone managed to buy bitcoin for only some $1,800). The bulls' attempt to win back the losses failed. Only on one BitMEX cryptocurrency exchange, mainly due to the triggering of stop orders, “long” positions of $650 million were closed. On Thursday, the decline continued, and the BTC/USD was able to find the local bottom only reaching the horizon of $7,700.
According to one version, the market crash is associated with the complete disappointment with trading volumes on the Bakkt platform, intended for trading cryptocurrency futures. Recall that it began working on Monday, September 23, and on the first day only 71 contracts were sold, each with a volume of 1 BTC. Futures trading was supposed to help the crypto industry. But the opposite happened, and the day after the start of Bakkt there came a "Black Tuesday."
Naturally, falling into the abyss, Bitcoin pulled altcoins along with it. So, the week low for Ethereum (ETH/USD) was fixed at $154.3 (minus 30%), for Litecoin (LTC/USD) - at $50.5 (minus 34%), for Ripple (XRP/USD) - $ 0.213 (minus 28%). The total capitalization of the cryptocurrency market decreased by more than 20% in seven days, from $ 277 billion to $ 218 billion.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. The dollar continues to be in demand amid confusion with Brexit and weak economic statistics coming from the EU. It is also supported by the strong results of the auction on US Treasury bonds and some optimism regarding the outcome of the US-Chinese trade war. Thus, last week, the Minister of Commerce of China expressed hope that, a position suiting both sides would be found in negotiations with the United States.
But besides this shiny side, the medal has another, reverse side. It lies in the discontent of Trump and his administration with the growth of the dollar, which negatively affects the competitiveness of American industry. In this regard, it can be expected that, under pressure from the US President, the Fed will take certain steps towards quantitative easing (QE), which will lead, if not to the dollar weakening, then at least to slowing down of the further strengthening of the US currency.
This week we will see a lot of economic news from both Europe and the United States. The preliminary values of the German Consumer Price Index (September 30) and the EU (October 01) will be published. Also, on Tuesday, October 1 and Wednesday October 2, ISM Business Activity Indices in the US manufacturing and services sectors will be released. And on the first Friday of the month, statistics on the US labor market, including NFP, will traditionally be released. The business week will be completed by a speech by Fed Chairman J. Powell.
Regarding the opinion of experts, 55% of them expect a correction of the EUR/USD pair up to the zone 1.1000-1.1100. 15% of the oscillators on D1 and W1 also support this scenario, giving signals that the pair is being oversold. The remaining 45% of analysts, along with the overwhelming number of indicators, have sided with the bears, expecting the dollar to further strengthen and the pair to decline to the 1.0800 horizon. The nearest support is 1.0885. A compromise option is drawn by graphical analysis on D1: first, a decline to the level of 1.0800, then movement in the channel 1.0800-1.0885 and a subsequent return to the height of 1.1000;
 
- GBP/USD. On Monday, the last day of September, the data on the UK GDP for the 2nd quarter will be released. The indicator is expected to show an increase of 0.7% (from -0.2% to + 0.5%). However, this is unlikely to have a long-term impact on the pound, whose exchange rate is still determined by the confusion around Brexit, the date of which, October 31, is inexorably approaching.
In this situation, 45% of the experts, supported by graphical analysis on D1 and most indicators, expect the pair to try to update the September 3 low, 1.1960. Immediate support is at the levels of 1.2210, 1.2080, 1.2015.
25% of analysts have voted for the lateral movement of the pair along the Pivot Point 1.2300. And another 30% of experts expect its growth to the height of 1.2500. Such a forecast is supported by 15% of the oscillators on H4 and D1, signaling overselling of the pair. The nearest resistance is in the zone of 1.2385-1.2415 ;
 
- USD/JPY. As for the yen, investors will wait for the developments in the US-Chinese trade war and the results of the meeting of the Bank of Japan in late October, which may give a regulatory impetus to the country's economy. Pushing the yen up may decrease the yield on US bonds.
In the meantime, the voices of experts are divided as follows. 40% of analysts and graphical analysis on D 1 have voted for the pair to decline. The goal is a breakthrough of support in the zone 107.00 and the transition to the zone 105.75-106.70. The next target is 105.00. 60% of the experts, 100% of trend indicators on H4 and 90% on D1 have voted for the pair to reach the zone of 109.00. The nearest resistance is 108.50;
 
- Cryptocurrencies. It seems that the climatic chaos on the planet is reflected in the crypto market as well. And instead of the crypto spring promised by the famous investor Thomas Lee, another crypto winter is setting in. At least, the rise of Bitcoin to 50, 100 or 200 thousand dollars predicted by many gurus has not yet happened. And the fact that the current rebound from $7,700 has not received any serious development indicates the lack of consumer appetite among investors.
The cryptocurrency “Fear & Greed Index” on Thursday reached the “12” mark, which corresponds to the “extreme fear”. According to the developers of the index, this is a good moment to open “long” positions, however, as already mentioned, there are no active purchases. And it is possible that they will begin only when the price approaches the zone of $7,000-7,400.


Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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First, a review of last week’s events:
 
- EUR/USD. Analysts have been talking about this for so long and it has happened: on Wednesday September 18, the US Federal Reserve lowered its key interest rate by 0.25% to 2.0%. But since they have been talking about this for a very long time, the market worked out this scenario a long time ago, and no "epoch-making" jumps in the rate have occurred. On the contrary, the volatility declined, and the pair switched to a sideways movement in the corridor 1.1000-1.1075, which is already well-known to traders.
We have already talked in our previous forecasts about this Pivot Point zone of the last two months, which was formed as a result of uncertainty prevailing in the market. Last week was a confirmation of this. So, on the one hand, the Fed’s press conference on Wednesday went without extenuating rhetoric, reinforcing the view that there will be no further rate cuts this year. But the very next day, the Banks of Switzerland and England abandoned the policy of easing at their meetings as well, maintaining their rates at the same level, and the Bank of Norway did raise the key rate. This only exacerbated the uncertainty by forcing the EUR/USD pair to move strictly east;
 
- GBP/USD. The pound continues winning back losses from the expectation of an unregulated Brexit, adding 5% against the September 3 low of 1.1958. This week, European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker announced his readiness to abandon the idea of the backstop on the Irish border if British Prime Minister Boris Johnson comes up with something new and viable. This pushed the pound further up, as a result of which the pair reached the corridor 1.2440-1.2580, in which it was already moving in July, and completed the five-day period at the level of 1.2470;
 
- USD/JPY.The pair updated its medium-term high in the middle of the last week, reaching the height of 108.47. This happened against the backdrop of the decision of the Bank of Japan to maintain the target yield of 10-year government bonds in the zero zone. A statement by the head of BOJ Haruhiko Kuroda, who stated that the issue of further rate cuts is still relevant, also helped weaken the yen.
However, as usual, Trump's words made a greater impression on investors. And the US president said this time that Washington had reached an “initial” trade agreement with Tokyo, according to which the United States promised not to raise tariffs and introduce quotas for Japanese cars, and Tokyo would reset the duties on American wine within seven years.
Cars against wine - such a deal is clearly in favor of Japan. In addition, due to the escalation of the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East, the demand for protective assets has grown, among which, of course, is the yen. As a result, the pair went about 100 points in the opposite direction, ending the week session at 107.55;
   
- Cryptocurrencies. Last week pleased some and forced some to have cold sweat due to an unexpected sharp drop in bitcoin (BTC/USD) by 6%, and then due to its unexpected growth, for no apparent reason. This drop caused the widespread closure of long positions: on one BitMEX crypto exchange alone the closed positions were worth $150 million.
The most likely explanation for what happened is the game of major capital against small traders, disappointed by the lack of a quick rise in bitcoin. At the same time, large players, not wanting to cause a panic collapse, do not let the pair fall below acceptable levels, keeping it in a comfortable range with a Pivot Point of $10,000.
Interestingly, the main altcoins seem to have begun to live an independent life, only partially copying the movements of the reference cryptocurrency. So, Ethereum (ETH/USD) has risen in price by 35% over the past three weeks, Litecoin (LTC/USD) - by 30%, and Ripple managed to jump up by 27% in just 4 days (from September 14 to 18). And this despite the fact that the maximum fluctuations in bitcoin this month did not exceed 9%.
The most logical, in our opinion, explanation is the subtlety of the market for altcoins. Unlike bitcoin, it is much easier to manipulate the exchange rate here, even with significantly lower amounts, which cannot but attract speculators eager for quick enrichment.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. Unable to overcome the strong resistance level of 98.23, the USDX index is moving in a side channel. The pair EUR/USD is also moving east. Most likely, bearish factors such as quantitative easing (QE) in Europe and unregulated Brexit have already been played by the market. Objectively, the US economy is stronger than the European one. But the dollar-driven trade wars launched by President Trump are constantly hampering the dollar. And now there is also expectation of a full-fledged hot war in the Middle East over the drones’ attack on the oil facilities of Saudi Arabia, which Iran is accused of organizing. It is clear that the United States will surely intervene in this conflict.
All this leads to the closure of short positions on EUR/USD, and it is possible that the pair will not be able to update the September low at 1.0925. Half of the experts agree with this scenario, expecting it to grow to the height of 1.1100. The next target is 1.1160. 20% of analysts believe that the pair will nevertheless go down to around 1.0800. And 30%, supported by the oscillators on D1, expect the continuation of the side trend;

- GBP/USD. According to the calculations of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development, unorderly Brexit will subtract 0.5 pp from the Eurozone GDP, and as much as 2 pp from the Misty Albion GDP(!). Such a fall, according to the OECD experts, will put the Eurozone on the brink of a collapse, and Britain will plunge into a deep recession. Responding to such forecasts, markets, like ordinary consumers, tried to get rid of the pound, as a result of which this currency approached the 2016 lows.
If you look at the graph, you can see that three years ago, having pushed away from zone 1.1945-1.1985, the pair went up and, having passed 2,400 points, reached the height of 1.4345 in January 2018. This “historical” experience is pushing some investors to buy the pound right now, hoping that the situation with Brexit will be somehow settled, and the Bank of England, fighting inflation, will begin to raise interest rates.
Among analysts, the number of supporters of this development today is 40%. 80% of the oscillators on D1 also agree with this prediction. If the bullish scenario is implemented, the pair will first rise to the zone 1.2575-1.2645, and then 100 points higher. The most ambitious forecasts indicate the pair growth to the level of 1.3100 by the end of the year.
However, at the moment, the Brexit question remains open, and therefore most analysts (60%), supported by 70% of the oscillators on H4 and graphical analysis on D1, maintain a pessimistic mood, expecting that during the autumn, the pair will try again to approach its absolute low over the past 228 (!) years when on October 7, 2016 one pound was worth a little more than 1.19 dollars (in 1791 the pair GBP/USD was at around 4.55). The closest support areas are 1.2385-1.2400, 1.2280-1.2300, 1.2065-1.2200, 1.1955-1.2015;
 
- USD/JPY. For the reasons described above, most experts (65%) have supported the bears by voting for the fall of the dollar and the return of the pair to the area of 105.75-106.75.85% of indicators on H4 agree with this scenario. However, 15% of oscillators are already giving signals about the pair being oversold.
35% of analysts consider the strengthening of the yen a temporary phenomenon and therefore predict the pair will rise to the height of 109.00.
As for the graphical analysis, at the first stage it draws the pair's growth to the horizon of 108.50 and then its fall to the level of 106.75. The following support levels are 105.75 and 105.00. The target of the bears is the low of 08/26/2019 at the level of 104.45;   
 
- Cryptocurrencies. Despite the constant assurances of the crypto market “guru” about the inevitable rise of Bitcoin to 50, 100 or 200 thousand dollars, its price still remains in the consolidation zone, moving along the $10,000 horizon. Moreover, the volatility of the BTC/USD pair is decreasing day by day. And it seems that this situation is quite suitable for large players building this low “fence” and earning on the volume of transactions, and not on the frantic jumps of quotes.
Of course, a breakthrough can occur at any time. However, it is difficult to say in the current situation when this will happen and in which direction the price will go. We only note that at the moment, 65% of the experts surveyed remain bullish optimistic, and 35% are expecting the pair to drop to around $8,000.


Roman Butko, NordFX

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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Waiting for a Financial End of the World
 
The world has frozen in anticipation of the global financial crisis. Some analysts predict its onset in the coming months, others give a delay until the end of 2020 - the beginning of 2021. But both draw quite apocalyptic pictures. The collapse in oil, copper and iron ore prices, falling stocks and currencies, layoffs and bankruptcies.

One of the most famous economists, Nouriel Roubini, believes that the crisis will begin very soon, at the end of 2019-2020. Recall that his previous forecast was completely accurate. And now, in an article in Project Syndicate, Roubini cites a number of signs of impending disaster. Among them, along with the trade wars that the US is waging with China, the EU and other countries, Roubini calls the increase in interest rates by the US Federal Reserve and the recession caused by the cessation of fiscal stimulus.

For these reasons, the growth rate of the American economy may slow down to 1%, as a result of which the country will face the problem of job shortages and unemployment. One should not forget that the foreign exchange reserves of most countries are denominated in US dollars, so the crisis in the US economy is very likely to cause a collapse around the world.

But Is the Situation So Terrible Indeed?

First, it is reassuring that crises are temporary and cyclical. If we turn to the theory of medium-term economic cycles, we will see that since the beginning of the Great Depression of 1929 they occur approximately once every 7-12 years.

The first crisis in the 21st century was the bursting bubble of dotcoms (primarily American Internet companies) in 2000. Since 1994, the NASDAQ index had grown by more than 500%, and on March 10, 2000, in just one day, it fell more than one and a half times. Then the fall continued until 2003.

The next crisis, 2008, was caused by a bursting bubble of mortgage lending in the United States. And now we are gradually approaching a new boiling point, which is based on the overheating of the American economy, intensified by the global instability. Last summer, the S&P500 index, whose basket includes 500 US companies with the largest capitalization, reached its maximum, approaching the mark of 3.000. And in January 2010 it was exactly 3 times smaller: 1.000. That is, for almost 10 years we have seen continuous growth in the US economy. ACCA chief economist Michael Taylor estimates this is the longest growth period in 150 years. And if we focus on the theory of the cyclical nature of crises, it would be time for the next of them to begin.

And What about Washington?

“Naturally, both Fed leaders and President Donald Trump are aware of this,” says John Gordon, lead analyst at NordFX brokerage. - And here we must remember that the next year, 2020, is the year of the next presidential election in the United States. If Mr. Trump wants to lead the country for the second time (and, apparently, he wants to), he just cannot allow the collapse of the American economy, falling incomes and rising unemployment. Voters will never forgive him for this. Therefore, we can observe lately how Mr. Trump puts pressure on the leadership of the Federal Reserve System, insisting on softening financial policy. And it seems that the Federal Reserve may follow the president’s lead.

So, after the Fed raised its base interest rate from 2.25% to 2.5% in December last year, three more, if not four, increases were expected until mid-2020. However, the opposite happened: from July 31, 2019. the rate has again become 2.25%. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, speaking at the end of August at the annual economic symposium in Jackson Hole (USA), said that the Federal Reserve is ready to provide more incentives in case of a slowdown in economic growth.

Many other central banks, including the main regulator of Europe, the ECB, are also focused on easing policies. The leadership of China declares support for its economy as well. So there is hope that by joint efforts it will be possible, if not to prevent the crisis, then at least to push it back to 2021.

Yen, Bitcoin, Gold: An Equilateral Triangle

By accumulating resources, the largest US corporations are already redefining the priority of paying dividends to their shareholders, which makes us think again: what if the crisis breaks out in the coming months? What should one do? What assets to invest in, so as not to be left with nothing?

Currencies like the yen could be considered as a refuge. But they nevertheless strongly depend on the oil market and on the yield of US government bonds. For some time, the Japanese yen will be able to stay afloat. But, if the crisis is serious and long enough, its fate may also be unenviable.

What other options are there? Crypto enthusiasts, like Fundstrat analyst Tom Lee or Morgan Creek co-founder Anthony Pompliano, offer to invest in bitcoin, convincing investors that this virtual coin has already become a safe asset that can hedge currency risks. However, for many experts, this way of saving money raises fair doubts. “Answer the question on your own,” John Gordon of NordFX offers, “how reliable is Bitcoin if only from 08 to 15 August this digital currency lost more than 20% of its value, collapsing from $12,000 to $9,500? And this happened without any crises! "

With such frenzied volatility, Bitcoin is not a safe haven, but an ideal tool for high-risk speculation. Well and a refuge as well, but not from fluctuations in traditional financial markets, but from ... its younger colleagues in the digital market, altcoins, the interest in which is constantly falling. Of course, it is possible that at the time of the crisis, the price of the main cryptocurrency will rapidly go up. But it can fly down no less swiftly. Probabilities are 50 to 50. We are looking for a really reliable asset. And this, according to many experts, of course, is gold.



Over the past 20 years, this noble metal has risen in price from $275 per ounce in September 2000 to $1,550 in September 2019, bringing investors a profit of 460%.

According to analyst and producer of The Gold Forecast daily newsletter Harry Wagner, the last major bullish wave began at the end of 2015, after a correction of up to $1040, and suggests that gold can re-test the record highs of 2011, reaching in 2020 prices of $2070-2085 dollars per ounce.

Over the past year alone, since September 2018, the yellow metal has risen in price by 30%. According to the World Gold Council (WGC), gold demand in the first six months of 2019 reached a three-year high (2181 tons), mainly due to record purchases of the precious metal by Central banks, which are transferring their dollar reserves to more reliable assets, in their opinion.

“Of course, the numbers above look very attractive,” says the NordFX analyst. - And the actions of the Central Banks can be considered as an example. However, it must be borne in mind that if, in anticipation of a recession, the demand and, consequently, the price of this metal are rising, as the economy stabilizes, they may fall. Moreover, the fall may be quite serious. And the investor must have patience for the moment when the price moves up again to come: the process can take 5, 10 or more years. In this case, when we talk about hedging financial risks during global crises, gold can indeed be chosen as a preferred asset. As for the short- and medium-term speculations with it, this is a completely different issue, requiring a completely different approach, which must be discussed separately. However, in this case, gold can become a source of serious profit as well.”


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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First, a review of last week’s events:
 
- EUR/USD. The range 1.1025-1.106 can be called the Pivot Point zone of the last month and a half. It was there that the pair returned to by the end of the week trading session, which indicates the uncertainty prevailing in the market.
It is known that the situation now is most affected by the Trump trade wars and the US Federal Reserve policy. The information that Washington and Beijing could resume negotiations in early October had a positive impact on the stock market: the S&P500 index went up and approached the mark of 3000 again, while the growth rate of 10-year US Treasury bonds yields turned out to be the highest over the past three years. At the same time, the dollar began to strengthen, reaching its maximum since May 2017 against the euro. As a result, on Tuesday 03 September, the EUR/USD pair once again updated the low, reaching the level of 1.0925.
However, upon further reflection it turned out that in general there are no special reasons for optimism. You should not count on serious concessions from China, the problems of the American economy have not gone away and, in the event of continued trade wars, the likelihood of a deep recession will only increase. And this inevitably should entail a fall in rates and a serious easing of the Fed's monetary policy.
Investors expected to get some guidance at the end of the week based on the labor market data. However, the performance of such an important indicator as Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) showed... nothing because its decline was very, very small (from 159K to 130K). As a result, the dollar lost only some 40 points against the European currency. After that, the market tried to find the answers in the speech of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell in the evening on Friday, September 6. But to no avail either. As a result, the point was set at 1.10 25;
 
- GBP/USD. The British currency rate was first determined by optimism No. 1 - regarding the continuation of the US-Chinese negotiations, and then by optimism No. 2 - regarding negotiations with the EU on Brexit. Recall that most experts have expected that the pair would test again the 12 August 2019 low, 1.2015. Graphical analysis on D1 indicates a possible fall of the pair even further, to the low of October 2016, 1.1945. And this forecast was implemented at the beginning of the week: thanks to optimism No. 1, the pair fell to 1.1958. And then it turned around and, thanks to optimism No. 2, the pound was able to win back almost 400 points from the dollar by the middle of Thursday. As for the final chord, it sounded at the height of 1.2290;
 
- USD/JPY. Unlike the British pound, with its growing volatility, the yen is behaving quite calmly, moving in the lateral corridor 105.50-107.00 from the beginning of August. And the rare emissions outside this range are caused mainly by the news about the US-Chinese trade war developments, which Trump publishes on his Twitter.
As experts expected, interest in the yen, as a safe haven currency, has recently subsided, and as a result, the dollar managed to rise on Thursday to 107.23. After which a small rebound followed, and the pair finished the five-day period at the level of 106.9 2;
 
- Cryptocurrencies. According to the online publication Block Journal, bitcoin has surpassed even the most successful investments in IT companies that have gone through public IPO in terms of profitability. In March 2010, the first cryptocurrency used to cost about $0.003. Thus, at the current exchange rate above $10,000, its growth amounted to about 350,000,000%. (For comparison, the same indicator of the online advertising giant The Trade Desk is “only” 1.317%).
Over the past seven days, the BTC/USD pair grew as well. A forecast chart published a week ago shows that 70% of analysts expected the pair to rise to the $11,000 zone, which happened in reality: by mid-Friday September 6, Bitcoin gained $1,250 and reached the level of $10,925.
Along with the forecast for the BTC/USD pair, we published another forecast, for altcoins. According to experts, their prospects, regardless of where Bitcoin goes, look rather gloomy. If Bitcoin is to fall, investor interest in the cryptocurrency market as a whole will also fall. And if Bitcoin begins to grow, then we can expect an active exchange of altcoins for the reference cryptocurrency. And last week, alas, showed the validity of such a scenario. With the growth of the BTC/USD pair by 13%, Ethereum (ETH/USD) grew by only 4%, Litecoin (LTC/USD) - by 3%, and the growth of Ripple (XRP/USD) was 0.
 

As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:
 
- EUR/USD. Despite the fact that both the oscillators and the trend indicators on D1 are colored red, the analysts' forecast is neutral gray. The reason for this is the expectation of an event that can greatly affect investor sentiment. On Thursday, September 12, the ECB is due to announce its decision on the base interest rate. Currently, it is at a zero level, and one part of experts expects a decrease of 0.25 percentage points to -0.75%, the other does not exclude the possibility of an even more drastic decrease, to -0.4%, and the third believes that instead of specific measures to stimulate the economy of the Eurozone, the ECB may get off with general vague phrases this time as well.
In connection with the above, on September 12, we can expect increased volatility of the pair, the development of a bearish trend and a decrease in the euro quotes by 100 or more points. The nearest support is 1.0925, the next one is 1.0830. Resistance is in zones 1.1125 and 1.1250.
Among other events of the week, though not so significant, one can note the release of statistics on the US consumer market, which will be released on Thursday September 12 and Friday the 13th;
 
- GBP/USD. On Tuesday, September 10, we are expecting the publication of data on the UK labor market. But much more important than any economic statistics is Brexit related news. The first portion will arrive from the Parliament of this country on Monday. On the whole, the tension regarding the deal with the EU has significantly decreased, hopes for a second referendum are in the air, and 80% of experts expect the pound to strengthen and the pair to rise to the zone of 1.2400-1.2525.
An alternative point of view is represented by only 20% of analysts, graphical analysis and 15% of the oscillators on D1, which give signals the pair is overbought. The main goal in the case of this scenario is to re-test the August-September lows in the 1.1960-1.2060 area;
 
- USD/JPY. One can't say that nothing is happening in Japan. The Bank of Japan, trying to stop the decline in yield, is reducing the purchase of government bonds by 20 billion yen. On Monday, September 9, there will be statistics on the growth rate of Japanese GDP, which accelerated to 2.1% in the second quarter of 2019. But it seems that the yen quotes depend solely on the United States. Well, on China as well. And hopes for a trade agreement between these countries are pushing the Japanese currency down, and the pair up. As many as 90% of analysts (which is extremely rare), supported by 90% of oscillators and graphical analysis on D1, have sided with the bulls and voted for the pair to rise to the level of 107.25 and higher, to the resistances 107.80 and 108.50.
The fall of the pair to the level of 105.50 is expected, respectively, by 10% of experts and 10% of the oscillators, signaling the pair is overbought. Further support is located in zones 105.00 and 104. 45;

- Cryptocurrencies. Despite the stable growth throughout the past week, late on Friday, September 6, the main cryptocurrency unexpectedly went down, having fallen by almost $600 in literally 20 minutes. This confirms once again the thesis that with such super-volatility it is too early to talk about using bitcoin as a reliable asset for hedging risks in traditional financial markets - commodity, currency, and stock.
At the same time, Bitcoin adherents do not stop trying to warm up the crypto market with their appetizing forecasts. Thus, TV presenter and expert Max Kaiser said the other day that a stock market crisis, which is gaining momentum again, could lead the main cryptocurrency to a value of $25,000. However, there is a diametrically opposite point of view. For example, the analyst and trader John Bollinger, who created the well-known technical indicator Bollinger Bands, built into the MetaTrader terminals, has announced a possible complete reversal of the Bitcoin exchange rate. According to the expert, "the crypto winter, which was completed only in the second quarter this year, may return at a most unexpected moment."


Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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https://nordfx.com/

 
First, a review of last week’s events:
 
- EUR/USD. As we expected, the negotiations of the G7 countries on August 24-26 did not affect the foreign exchange market in any way. But it was influenced by many other factors that, contrary to the wishes of Donald Trump, further strengthened the American dollar. We will mention only a few of them. First, it is the conciliatory rhetoric of the USA and China, which gave hope for a trade agreement. Further, there was an increase in personal consumption expenditures in the United States (4.7% instead of the forecast 4.3%) along with an increase in the yield of US treasury bonds and stock indices. If we add to this the slowdown in inflation in Germany and the statement of the future Head of the ECB Christine Lagarde on possible measures to support the Eurozone economy (QE), we get the strengthening of the dollar against the euro by almost 200 points.
Most experts expected the euro to weaken and the pair to decline, indicating August lows at 1.1025 as a target. However, the collapse of data on retail sales in Germany (a fall of 2.1% instead of the expected 1.3%) pushed the pair even lower, to around 1.0960, followed by a slight rebound, and the pair ended the week at 1.0990;
 
- GBP/USD. Supported by graphical analysis, 70% of analysts sided with the bears last week, expecting further weakening of the British currency. Which is what was happening as the bad news regarding Brexit was coming out. The Parliament prorogation by the new Prime Minister Boris Johnson not only caused a wave of discontent among the country's residents, but even affected the GfK Consumer Confidence Index, which fell in anticipation of a hard UK exit from the EU. According to Irish Foreign Minister Simon Coveney, “Great Britain has no credible proposals for Brexit.” As a result, the GBP/USD pair lost about 130 points over the week, dropping to the level of 1.2165;
 
- USD/JPY. Speech by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell on Friday evening, August 23, pushed the pair down sharply, and, as a result of a gap in its fall, it reached 104.45 on Monday August 26. However, after that, as the vast majority of analysts expected (70%), against the backdrop of Trump's statements about productive “telephone conversations” with China, the dollar began to regain its position, reaching a strong resistance zone 106.60-106.70 on Thursday. As for the end of the five-day period, the pair completed it at the level of 106.25;
 
- Cryptocurrencies. You cannot name the situation in this market happy, which, in fact, is fully consistent with our forecasts. Recall that two weeks ago, the Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index dropped to Extreme Fear, and 70% of analysts gave a negative forecast for the BTC/USD pair, expecting it to fall to the $9,000-9,500 zone. This is exactly what happened: on Thursday, August 29, Bitcoin groped for a local bottom at $9.355.
If you keep in mind the news background, there is no visible reason for such a fall. And we can assume that in the absence of demand, sellers began to sharply reduce prices, hoping to attract new buyers.
Indeed, the situation with bitcoin is not joyful, but it is still difficult to call it dramatic, relying on support in the $9,100 zone, the pair have not updated the July lows. The situation with altcoins, whose popularity is inexorably declining, looks much more tragic. Litecoin (LTC/USD) returned to the level of March 2019, having dried out by 56% over the past 10 weeks. Losses of Ripple (XRP/USD) over the same period amounted to 50%, and it is trading now at the prices of two years ago. And the leading altcoin, Ethereum (ETH/USD) lost 54%. As for the capitalization of the cryptocurrency market as a whole, it decreased by about 32% over the indicated 10 weeks, from $367 billion to $250 billion.
 

As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:
 
- EUR/USD. Despite the peaceful statements by the US president and the Chinese leadership last week, Trump’s decision to raise tariffs from September 1 has not been canceled. There was only his promise to postpone this increase until December 15. So, the end of the trade war between these countries is not at all a fact. It is also doubtful whose mitigation policy, the ECB's or the Fed's, will be softer. Investors are hoping to get a part of the answer to this question from the speeches of Christine Lagarde on Tuesday September 3 and Jerome Powell on Friday September 6.
You should also pay attention to the value of the PMI Caixin index in China's manufacturing sector, which reflects the degree of business confidence in the economy of this country and which will be published on Monday 02 September. Data on business activity (ISM) in the US will be released on Tuesday and Wednesday, and on Friday, data on the American labor market will traditionally be released. According to forecasts, the number of new jobs outside the agricultural sector (NFP) may slightly decrease, from 164K to 159K, which is unlikely to have a strong impact on the dollar.
Based on the forecast data, most analysts (55%) expect EUR/USD to move sideways along the 1.1000 level at 1.0960-1.1050 next week. 25%, supported by 90% of oscillators and 100% of trend indicators, expect that the pair will be able to break through support 1.0960 on its way to parity and fall to the zone 1.0875-1.0925. The remaining 20% believe that the pair is for a correction and a rise to the level of 1.1250. This scenario is supported by 10% of oscillators on D1, giving signals about it being oversold. It should be noted that in the transition to the medium-term forecast, the number of supporters of the strengthening of the euro increases to 60%. At the same time, analysts are waiting for the pair to return to the levels of 1.1400-1.1500;         
 
- GBP/USD. At present, the three-month pound volatility against the US dollar is about 14%. It was so high for the last time at the moment when Theresa May tried to ratify the agreement with the EU in the British Parliament. Now its source is May's successor Boris Johnson and the expectation of a hard Brexit.
In the current situation, as before, most experts (60%) do not expect anything good for the pound. In full agreement with the graphical analysis on H4 are the readings of 90% of the indicators on H4 and D1, they suggest that the pair will test again the August 12, 2019 low. - 1.2015. Graphical analysis on D1 indicates a possible fall of the pair even further - to the low of October 2016, 1.1945. The nearest support is 1.1260;
The remaining 40% of analysts, along with 10% of the oscillators, believe that the pair is already oversold and expect it to return to the range 1.2420-1.2550. Their forecast is reinforced by the hope of a positive course of negotiations with the EU on Brexit;
 
- USD/JPY. Japan's weak economic statistics, as well as some lull in the trade war between China and the United States, have led to a dropping interest in the yen. That is why 70% of experts expect further growth of the pair to the level of 107.00-107.70. The next target, according to the graphical analysis on D1, is 108.75.
As for the opposite point of view, the argument of the bears is that the spread on the yield of 10-year bonds in Japan and the United States has decreased by about 135 points since November 2018, and the yen has strengthened against the dollar by 7% (from 114.5 to 106.00). And this strong trend may well continue. The immediate task is to overcome the support of 104.80. After which, in the medium term, the Japanese currency may even reach a significant level of 100.00;
 
- Cryptocurrencies. An unexpected statement was made by the Head of the Bank of England, Mark Carney, speaking at an economic conference in Jackson Hole (USA). He spoke extremely negatively both about the hegemony of the American currency and the prospect of the emergence of another reserve, such as the Chinese yuan. The UK chief banker said the dollar should be replaced with some form of cryptocurrency similar to Facebook’s recently introduced Libra. It is not known whether his wishes will ever come true, but so far, of the dollar, yuan, Libra, and his "native" pound that he has mentioned, the dollar he does not like is feeling the best.
As mentioned above, the BTC/USD pair came close to the July lows in the region of $9,100 last week. Last time, Bitcoin received support and fought off first at the level of $11,080, and then at $12,320. Whether something similar happens this time depends largely on major institutional investors. Bitcoin can also be supported by the launch of Bakkt, the crypto ecosystem created by Intercontinental Exchange (ICE). In the case of a confident breakdown of support $9,000-9,100, the pair is likely to fall to the zone of $7,450-8,200.
But the prospects for altcoins look gloomy in both cases. If Bitcoin is to fall, investor interest in the cryptocurrency market as a whole will also fall. And if Bitcoin begins to grow, then we can expect an active exchange of altcoins for the reference cryptocurrency.


Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin

https://nordfx.com/