Topic: Nordfx broker: news, weekly Analytics - page 31. (Read 50129 times)

 
First, a review of last week’s events:
 
- EUR/USD. The Jackson Hole Annual Economic Symposium has traditionally served to give investors an understanding of where US monetary policy will move. That is why the markets were looking forward to Fed Chairman Jerome Powell speaking at this event.
On the other hand, back in the days when Alan Greenspan was Head of the Federal Reserve, another tradition appeared: let in as much fog as possible when answering questions, so as not to bind oneself with any specific promises.
This was what Powell did in Jackson Hole on Friday August 23. He did not give a clear signal for the Fed rate in the future, explaining that there were no precedents that could serve as the basis for a specific answer. But he said that the Fed was ready to provide more incentives in the event of a slowdown in economic growth.
Powell could not do without a hint that the trade wars waged by the US president are causing a lot of headache to the American Central Bank either.
Speaking of wars. Inside the EU, a counterattack plan for trade tariffs introduced by Trump has matured. A retaliatory strike scheme is described in detail in 173 pages, as the main goals for which the American hi-tech giants Apple, Amazon, Facebook, Google are chosen. A counterattack may also include the unilateral imposition of duties on goods from the United States. In parallel, it is proposed to invest about €100 billion into shares of European companies in order to increase their competitiveness compared to enterprises in the USA and China.
Returning to Powell, despite the vagueness of his wording, as well as the discord among other members of the Fed, many market participants still expect one or two (or even three) base rate cuts before the end of 2019. Moreover, the next cut may be announced on September 18.
Naturally, this market sentiment could not but affect the quotes, and on Friday evening the pair came close to the height of 1.1150;
 
- GBP/USD. In addition to the head of the Fed, the head of the Bank of England Mark Carney also spoke on Friday, August 23. However, an incomparably greater impression on the market was made by the words of German Chancellor Angela Merkel that were said the day before that the EU and Great Britain could reach an agreement on Brexit by October 31. Of course, this is just an intention, but it helped the pound a lot: thanks to these words, the British currency reached a three-week high, rising on Thursday August 22 to 1.2272. Then a pullback followed, but after the speech of the Fed head, the bulls prevailed once again, raising quotes to the level of 1.2285 by the end of the week;
 
- USD/JPY. There is no doubt that investors continue to be very worried about developments in the markets. It is quite natural against such a background, that the Japanese Yen turned out to be the best currency of the G10, not only in August, but throughout the last months of 2019, playing the role of a quiet haven among the trade and financial wars thundering around. At the same time, experts supported by graphical analysis on H4 had suggested that last week the pair would take a break and move in the side channel 105.00–107.00. That was it until Friday night. Moreover, the corridor was even narrower than expected: only 50 points bounded by horizons 106.20 and 106.70.
Powell’s performance on the evening of Friday, August 23, pushed the pair sharply down, however, it did not manage to reach the level of 105.00, completing the five-day period at 105.40;
   
- Cryptocurrencies. We wrote in our previous forecast that the Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index is at the “Fear” mark. And it is this fear that leads to a continuous decrease in volatility (remember, again, the triangular pennant on the chart of the previous week, whose edges converge in the $10,400-10,500 zone).
This forecast turned out to be absolutely correct, and during the whole seven-day period the BTC/USD pair did not go beyond the borders of $9,785-10,980, which indicates consolidation at the level of $10,385. TOP altcoins also fluctuated in the range of 11-13%: Litecoin (LTC/USD), Ripple (XRP/USD) and Ethereum (ETH/USD).
There is only one conclusion: the market is in a state of uncertainty, and players, both the bulls and the bears, fearing to take risks, froze in anticipation of any distinct signal.
 

As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:
 
- EUR/USD. The meeting of G7 leaders on August 24-24 is among the events of the end of summer. It cannot be ignored. However, it is unlikely that the results of these negotiations of the heads of the G7 countries will set any definite trends in the foreign exchange market. Most likely, the leaders will simply urge the heads of their central banks to respond more actively to external and internal economic threats. Investors are much more worried about the euro interest rate cut announced for September and the European Central Bank’s reanimation of the QE program, as well as when and in what amount the Fed will lower the interest rate.
After Jerome Powell's performance on the evening of August 23 and the sharp rise of the pair, it is natural that both the graphical analysis and most of the indicators on H4 look up. However, the picture is completely different on D1: 70% of the trend indicators turned red, and among the oscillators, either red or neutral gray prevail. At the same time, 10% of them are already signaling the pair is overbought.
Strengthening of the dollar and the pair's return to the August lows of 1.1025-1.1050 are also expected by 65% of analysts. An alternative point of view is represented by the remaining 35% of experts, according to whom the pair may well reach zone 1.1200-1.1250. The next goal is 100 points higher;

- GBP/USD. No less active than Brexit, the world discusses the fact that during the meeting with French Prime Minister Emmanuel Macron, the new British Prime Minister Boris Johnson put his feet on the coffee table. Macron has been and remains one of the most consistent supporters of the EU’s tough stance on relations with Britain. And maybe his British colleague wanted to show in this way that France’s position, to put it mildly, doesn’t really bother him?
Of course, Merkel, Macron, and Johnson continue contacts during the G7 meeting, but even after them the probability of Britain leaving the EU without an agreement remains as high as before. That is why 70% of experts, in full agreement with graphical analysis on H4 and D1, expect a continuation of the downtrend and a decrease of the pair to the August 12 low - 1.2015. The closest resistance zone is 1.2280-1.2320, support is in the areas of 1.2180-1.2200 and 1.2075-1.2100.
30% of analysts continue to remain on the side of the bulls, believing that the good news regarding the Brexit agreement has not yet ended, and the pair will still be able to rise to the zone 1.2415-1.2520. More than 70% of indicators support this scenario. However, 15% of the oscillators on D1 are already signalizing the pair is overbought;
 
- USD/JPY. Experts (70%) expect the strengthening of the dollar against the yen as well. Despite the fact that the Japanese currency remains, along with the Swiss franc, the most popular safe haven currency, many major investors begin to fix short positions, converting their capitals to the gold.
The words of Bank of Japan representative Sayuri Shirai who said on Thursday August 22 that in order to counter the impending recession, the Bank allows a further reduction in the interest rate, which is already negative and amounts to minus 0.1%, played against the yen as well.
The immediate goal of the bulls is to return to the zone 106.20-106.70, then breakdown and consolidation above the level of 107.00. As for the bears (30%), they, with the support of 90% of the indicators on D1, will try to break the bottom in the zone of 105.00 and move the pair to the March 2018 low 104.60;     
 
- Cryptocurrencies. In general, the news background is quite favorable: Bank of America plans to patent a system for the safe storage of digital assets. Another US bank, Silvergate, has announced plans to launch a new product - loans issued against cryptocurrencies. - A study by Nobl Insurance showed that the cryptocurrency market has grown by 48% from 2018 to 2019 and will continue to expand over the next 12 months.
There is one more interesting piece of news. According to a statement from US economist Jim Rickards, Russia and China are working together to create their own cryptocurrency, which will be tied to gold. And that is precisely why, in his opinion, they have been so actively buying up this precious metal in recent years.
One can argue with Rickards. First, why should Russia and China issue a joint cryptocurrency? Each of these countries may well release their own cryptocurrency. And secondly, they replenish their gold reserves, most likely, not for the sake of issuing any digital coins, but in order to reduce their dependence on the US dollar.
As for the forecast, crypto enthusiasts, as usual, make every effort to push bitcoin up. This time, famous trader Alex Kruger made a prophetic prediction. According to him, the cost of bitcoin will soon begin to increase and reach 50 thousand dollars by the end of 2021. But at the same time, Kruger added that this will happen ... only if the coin now holds the positions above 10 thousand dollars. Well, what can one say to this?     
The Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index has recently dropped to the Extreme Fear mark. 70% of analysts are looking south, but nevertheless they accurately mark the threshold of the fall with a zone of $9,000-9,500. It is possible that, pushing off from this support, Bitcoin will begin a new take-off to the $12,000 and $20,000 marks. But now it’s too early to talk about it and we need to wait for clear signals.


Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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First, a review of last week’s events:
 
- EUR/USD. As expected by most experts, supported by graphical analysis, the dollar went up last week, while the EUR/USD pair went down along with the euro. True, it did not reach the set target, the low of August 1, 1.1025, having found the local bottom at the level of 1.1065.
The reason for the fall of the European currency was in the first place, "doves" promises by the general director of the Bank of Finland and former candidate for the ECB Olli Rehn. According to the statement of this prominent European official, it is already in September that the market expects a reduction in the key rate by 0.1 (and possibly by 0.2) percentage points (now it is -0.4%), as well as the resumption of the QE quantitative easing program in volume about 50 billion euros monthly.
In addition, not the best economic statistics from Germany and China and the unexpected growth in US retail sales played in favor of the dollar. The market had been expecting this indicator to decline from 0.7% to 0.3%, but it rose to 1.0%.

- GBP/USD. Last week, analysts did not expect any significant changes in the British pound, so their forecast was classified as neutral. As for technical analysis, 25% of the oscillators on H4 and D1 gave signals about the overselling of the pair, which, as practice shows, is a strong signal for a trend reversal and upcoming correction. This was what happened: having rebounded from the level of 1.2015, the pair went north, fixing the week’s high at 1.2175 on Friday. The final five-day chord sounded in the 1.2140 zone, which can be called the Pivot Point of the first week of August;

- USD/JPY. A third of analysts, supported by 85% of the oscillators and 100% of the trend indicators on H4 and D1, were sure that the Japanese currency would continue to play the role of a quiet refuge from currency storms, and therefore the pair would continue to fall to the low of January 3, 2019. at the level of 105.00. That was what happened, and it was already on Monday, August 12, that the pair approached this mark.
Another third of the experts and graphical analysis on D1 had voted for the trend to turn up and lift the pair to the height of 107.00, which it reached the next day, on Tuesday, August 13.
The ending of the week satisfied the remaining third of specialists, who had taken a neutral position. If you look at the graph of the last two weeks, you can see that the pair moved to the side channel 105.00–107.00 and completed the working session closer to its center, at 106.35. Thus, all three scenarios can be considered fulfilled - bearish, bullish and neutral;
 
- Cryptocurrencies. Crypto enthusiasts, such as Fundstrat analyst Tom Lee or Morgan Creek co-founder Anthony Pompliano, continue to attempt to raise Bitcoin status, claiming it has already become a safe haven asset, along with gold or the Japanese yen. And here it is questionable, what kind of refuge it is, if only from August 08 to 15 this digital currency lost more than 20% of its value, collapsing from $12,000 to $9,500?
With such frenzied volatility, Bitcoin is not a safe haven, but an ideal tool for high-risk speculation. Well and a refuge as well, but not from fluctuations in traditional financial markets, but from ... its younger colleagues in the digital market, altcoins, the interest in which is constantly falling.
If you look at the dynamics of the altcoin market, starting from the peak on June 26, its capitalization fell from $124 to $79 billion, that is, more than 36%. Losses of bitcoin are twice lower :18% (drop from $229 to $187 billion). Accordingly, investors are gradually losing interest even in top coins such as Ethereum (ETH), Ripple (XRP) and Litecoin (LTC), switching their attention to bitcoin (BTC), whose market share has already exceeded 70%.
 

As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:
 
- EUR/USD. On one European scale, there is a slowdown in the economic growth of the EU’s most important partner - China, weak economic performance in Germany, problems of Italy and Brexit. On the other, the American one, macro statistics from the United States are pleasing to the eye and the Fed’s leadership claims that the American economy is on a solid foundation and that it doesn’t fear any trade wars. It would seem that the answer to the question on which side the advantage should be is clear: on the side of the dollar. That is exactly what 65% of experts believe, supported by almost 100% of oscillators and trend indicators on H4 and D1. The immediate goal is support in the zone 1.1000–1.1025, after breaking through which there will be only 1000 points to 1: 1 parity. At the current rate of decline, it may take a little over a year to overcome this distance. (Recall that the pair was already dropping to the level of 1.0350 in December 2016).
However, if you imagine other scales, everything becomes not so obvious. So, on one, European, scale there is the decrease in the euro interest rate announced by Olli Rehn for September and the resuscitation of the QE program. And on the US scale - the expectation of a recession in the US economy, Donald Trump's discontent with the actions of the Fed and, as a result, a possible reduction in the dollar rate by the end of 2019 from 2.25% to 1.85%. If the head of the Federal Reserve Jerome Powell succumbs to pressure from the US president, a trend reversal upward and the pair's rise to marks in the zone 1.1300-1.1400 are not excluded. And if in the near future it is 35% of analysts who do not exclude such an opportunity, in the medium term their number increases to 55%.
According to experts, the results of the Fed meeting on Wednesday, August 21 and the annual economic symposium in Jackson Hole, which will also be held next week, should give some clarity about the US financial policy. In addition, the report on the ECB meeting on monetary policy, which will be released on Thursday, August 22, is of great interest;   
 
- GBP/USD. A rather interesting situation has developed in the UK. On the one hand, production is declining, falling by 0.6% compared to last year. On the other hand, instead of the retail sales drop of 0.3% expected in July, their growth by 0.2% was noted. This may indicate that, watching the fall of the pound and fearing the consequences of Brexit, the country's residents prefer shopping rather than financial savings.
It is not clear how long this situation will last. We need to wait for the steps of the new Prime Minister Boris Johnson and the reaction of the British Parliament to them. Until this happens, the respite that the pair has taken in its fall will, according to the majority (65%) of experts, continue, and the pair will stay in the side channel 1.2000–1.2200. The closest support level is 1.2050, resistance is 1.2175.
As for the graphic analysis, both on H4 and D1, after several days of movement in the side corridor, it predicts the pair will fall to the October 2016 low in the zone 1.1900–1.1940;
 
- USD/JPY. The decision of the US authorities to postpone the introduction of additional duties on Chinese imports did not help the dollar much: investors still strongly doubt the peaceful end of the US-Chinese trade war. So, the yen will continue to play the role of a quiet financial haven. The expectation of a coming recession in the US economy and lower interest rates by the US Federal Reserve also plays against the dollar. Added to this is a drop in yields on 10-year US bonds, which have already fallen to 1.6%. Moreover, the yield spread of these securities has fallen below zero. Which, in theory, should lead to further strengthening of the Japanese currency and a decrease in the pair. However, experts supported by graphical analysis on H4 are inclined to believe that the pair will stay in the side channel 105.00–107.00 for at least another week. But in the future, most of them (60%) expect not a fall, but, on the contrary, that the dollar will strengthen, and the pair will rise to the zone of 108.50-109.00. Graphical analysis on D1 agrees with this forecast;
 
- Cryptocurrencies. Giving long-term forecasts is a blessing. And the more distant the forecast, the better. If it does not come true, it's okay: everyone forgot about it a long time ago. And if the forecast is correct, then you can remind about yourself.
For example, Tim Draper, the investor and head of Draper Associates, has predicted that Bitcoin would hit $250,000, possibly at the end of 2022, or maybe at the beginning of 2023. Well, only three years are left to wait.
If we talk about more near forecasts, famous cryptocurrency analyst Nicholas Merten is confident that Bitcoin will reach the $15,000 mark in a few weeks. It is possible that he is right, and a trend reversal is just around the corner, but so far there are no clear signs to buy, and the Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index is still at the “Fear” mark.


Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin

https://nordfx.com/

 
First, a review of last week’s events:
 
- EUR/USD. The pair is consolidating in the zone of a strong support/resistance level around 1.1200. In general, the zone 1.1150-1.1215 is quite significant for this pair, since it can be called the main Pivot Point of 2015-2016. And now, after three years, the pair has once again fallen into this range, which may indicate some confusion in the market.
Uncertainty factors are many.
Firstly, this is the beginning of another round in the US-China trade war. Introducing 10 percent duties on the next group of Chinese goods from September 1, the US president did not stop there, he called China “currency manipulator” and is planning to postpone the issuance of licenses for US companies to trade with Huawei.
In addition to the external war, Trump has to wage an internal war, with his own Fed. He wrote in his Twitter on Thursday August 08: “Our companies are the greatest in the world, there is nobody even close, but unfortunately the same cannot be said about our Federal Reserve. They have called it wrong at every step of the way...". It is about stimulating the American economy, which is one step away from the recession, for which Trump blames the strong dollar. “The Fed’s high interest rates,” he writes, “in comparison to other countries, is keeping the dollar high, making it more difficult for our great manufacturers...to compete on a level playing field.”
So, the market expects steps from the US leadership aimed at preventing an industrial downturn. But the ECB is expected to take the same steps, since the Eurozone economy, undermined by economic wars and political instability within the EU, is not in the best condition either, and the yield of German bonds have reached record lows. However, lowering the interest rate for the euro is a double-edged sword. By stimulating industrial growth, this step will create serious problems for the banking system in Europe. According to Bloomberg experts, lowering the rate on euro deposits to -0.5% will increase banks' expenses associated with servicing negative rates by 60%.
Investors are not happy with the ongoing drop in oil prices either. Saudi Arabia is making a lot of efforts to maintain the price of “black gold” at least at the current level, but the results of these steps remain doubtful;
 
- GBP/USD and USD/JPY. Most experts had expected a decline on both of these pairs. And if you look at the results of the week, the forecast turned out to be correct on the whole, although not one of them reached its goals. Thus, 75% of analysts expected to see GBP/USD around 1.2000, but the week low was fixed slightly higher, at the level of 1.2025. Thus, the loss of the British pound against the dollar amounted to about 135 points.

- As for USD/JPY, unlike the pound, the yen continued to strengthen against the US currency. Analysts (60%) had expected the pair to be able to reach the January 2019 low at around 105.00. However, the fall was stopped at the horizon of 105.40 (minus 120 points during the week) , after which there was a rebound upwards, and the pair completed the five-day period at 105.65;
 
- Cryptocurrencies. Former CEO of Google and Facebook, Avichal Garg, is sure that the real dominance of bitcoin in the cryptocurrency market is much higher than the figure published by cryptocurrency services, and actually exceeds 75%. According to Garg, it is necessary to revise the current measurement standards, since now they take into account the huge number of altcoins with zero liquidity. And it is not at all excluded that soon we will see the share of bitcoin exceed the mark of 80%, or even 90%. An argument in favor of this development is that BTC is gradually becoming a very popular safe haven asset.  “Bitcoin has proven to be a hedge against global risks, because it shows a positive correlation with gold and a negative correlation with the stock markets,” said Tom Lee, co-founder and senior analyst at Fundstrat, in an interview with CNBC. And, looking at the charts of the last week, one cannot disagree with him. Usually, top altcoins repeated the dynamics of the main cryptocurrency. Now, despite the fact that the BTC/USD pair has shown steady growth, adding about $1,500 during the week and gaining a foothold in the $11,550-12,120 zone, the main altcoins, including Litecoin (LTC/USD), Ethereum (ETH/USD) and Ripple (XRP/USD), finished the week in the red zone. Although, of course, it is too early to bury them completely. According to some experts, several alternative cryptocurrencies (for example, Ethereum) can become stand-alone blockchains, ceasing to be considered altcoins. The rest will go into oblivion as unnecessary.
 

As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:
 
- EUR/USD. If on H4 both trend indicators and oscillators are still pointing north, D1 has a completely different picture: about half of the indicators are colored red, and another 15% of the oscillators give signals that the pair is overbought. Graphical analysis on H4 and 60% of experts sided with the bears as well, they expect that, having pushed off the resistance of 1.1200, the pair will once again test support in the zone of 1.1025. In their opinion, the euro quotes at 1.1200 are now supported mainly due to the growth of interest in protective assets. However, the fragile balance, in addition to the situation with Brexit and a new aggravation of the political situation in Italy, can be disturbed even by weak data on GDP growth in the Eurozone, which will be released on Wednesday, August 14.
A reduction in the state budget deficit and positive data on inflation in the USA can also play a role in strengthening the dollar. What these numbers will actually be will be announced on Monday, August 12 and Tuesday, August 14, respectively.
The remaining 40% of analysts vote for the growth of the pair to the zone 1.1275-1.1345. Their forecast is based on the expectation of a recession and a further decline in interest rates in the United States. Thus, Wall Street Journal analysts estimate the chances of a recession over the next 12 months at 33.6% (a year ago it was18.3%), which is the highest rate since 2011. And predicting a change in the rate, experts believe that by the end of 2019 it will fall from 2.25% to 1.85%;

- GBP/USD. On Tuesday morning, August 13, the UK will present a portion of labor market data that is expected to be neutral at best and weak at worst. As for inflation, its indicators, which will be released on August 14, are likely to remain at the same level. In general, experts are not expecting any significant changes in the pound this week, and therefore their forecast can be classified as neutral.
As for the technical analysis, 100% of the trend indicators and most of the oscillators on H4 and D1 are colored red. Graphical analysis also Indicates to a continued fall of the pair. Moreover, it is already 25% of the oscillators that indicate overselling of the pair, which is a strong signal for a trend reversal and upcoming correction.
Support Levels: January 2017 lows - 1.1985 and October 2016 lows - 1.1945. Resistance Levels: 1.2210, 1.2415, 1.2525;
 
- USD/JPY. As already mentioned, the desire of investors to shelter their capital in quiet harbors continues to grow. And 35% of analysts are sure that the Japanese currency will continue to play the role of such a harbor, and therefore the fall of the pair will continue until the January 3, 2019 low at the level of 105.00. Next support is March 2018 low 104.60. Graphical analysis on H4, as well as 85% of oscillators and 100% of trend indicators on H4 and D1 agree with this scenario.
30% of the experts were not able to give a forecast, and the remaining 35%, together with a graphical analysis on D1, voted for the trend to reverse upward and the pair to rise to the zone 107.00-108.00. Such a scenario is also supported by 15% of the oscillators, giving signals of the pair being oversold.
It should be noted that in the transition from a weekly to medium-term forecast, the number of bull supporters among experts increases sharply, from 35% to 65%, and the height of 109.00 is called the main goal;
 
- Cryptocurrencies. Tom Lee is confident that, having become, along with yen and gold, a safe haven asset, Bitcoin will be able to rise to $20,000. A similar point of view has been expressed by Anthony Pompliano, co-founder of Morgan Creek. According to him, central banks will begin to massively buy bitcoins in the near future in order to hedge dollar risks, which appeared against the backdrop of tensions between the United States and China. The “epidemic” of lowering interest rate regulators will positively affect the quotes of the first cryptocurrency. Another strength of Bitcoin is its projected emission and limited supply.
The reference cryptocurrency has grown by 93% in three months and now its immediate task is to update the highs of June 2019 in the $14,000 zone. More than 70% of experts agree with this forecast, although, in their opinion, this could happen by the end of August. In the next week, the pair will perhaps continue to move along the horizon of $12,000.


Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin

https://nordfx.com/

 
First, a review of last week’s events:
 
- USD. Two events took place last week, more precisely on Thursday 01 and Friday 02 August, that could shake the markets. But they did not shake them.
On Thursday, for the first time since 2008, the US Federal Reserve lowered its key rate from 2.50% to 2.25%. The event was quite expected. Markets usually react to such a move, by dropping quotes. However, in this case, instead of falling, the dollar rose, although not by much (the increase against EUR was a little more than 100 points) and not for long (as of Friday, the euro won back 85 points).
The main reason for the growth of the American currency was the comment by Jerome Powell, in which the Fed chief said that this rate cut by 25 basis points would not necessarily mark the beginning of a consistent easing policy. Indirectly, his words were confirmed by the fact that the rate was reduced by only 0.25%, and not by 0.50%, and two FOMC members voted against any reduction.
Thus, the Federal Reserve was the least “soft” against the background of the central banks of other countries pursuing a policy of easing, which led to a short-term growth of the dollar.   
The second planned event was the release of statistics on the US labor market. As predicted, NFP fell slightly (from 193K to 164K), to which the market reacted rather sluggishly, especially since the main newsmaker at the end of the week was - unexpected for many! - Donald Trump. (Well, who can do without him!)
For a start, the US president called Powell's behavior a betrayal, and then put an end to the fragile truce in the US-China trade war, announcing the introduction of a 10% duty on Chinese goods worth $300 billion on September 1. Such a move by Trump sharply increased the chances further easing of the Fed’s monetary policy, in spite of Powell's statements. Thus, the probability of the next rate reduction in September increased from 64% to 92%, in December - from 42% to 75%.
The threat of a new round of hostilities in the war with China brought down the American stock market, and investors once again turned their attention to a safe haven currency such as the Japanese yen, which strengthened against the dollar by 275 points at the end of the week;
 
- Cryptocurrencies. Without a doubt, Bitcoin was, is and will be the digital currency number 1, which reigns at the crypto market, making up the bulk of its capitalization and determining the trends and quotes of the vast majority of altcoins. And although sometimes there are voices offering to give, for example, Ethereum the status of a full-fledged coin, placing it next to Bitcoin, this is unlikely to happen in the foreseeable future.
As for the news background, which often defines a particular trend, it has recently become quite ambiguous. Thus, the largest social network Facebook has declared that the launch of the project of its own digital currency Libra may be canceled due to significant pressure from the regulator, the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
On the one hand, it seems to be good for Bitcoin: there will be one strong competitor less. On the other hand, after crushing Libra, the authorities can firmly take on the crypto market as a whole. Calls on this matter do not stop for a minute. For example, The United States Revenue Service (IRS) has recently sent letters to more than 10 thousand investors demanding to include information about cryptocurrency assets in their tax return, otherwise violators will be fined.
In the meantime, the pair BTC/USD continues to move in the side channel, trying to overcome the resistance of $10,500. Major altcoins, including Litecoin (LTC/USD), Ethereum (ETH/USD) and Ripple (XRP/USD), are also moving in a sideways trend with low volatility. It can be assumed that the main reason for such calm is the middle of summer, when investors, legislators, and even tax inspectors go on vacation. Although it may be just a lull before the next storm.
 

As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:
 
- EUR/USD. The pair in its fall is now close to Pivot Point 2015-2016. And, although the rebound up on Friday, August 02, colored the indicators on H4 in a neutral gray color, 90% of the oscillators and trend indicators on D1 still insist on the continuation of the downward trend. 65% of experts agree that the American currency still has potential for growth, and it will continue to put pressure on the euro. The immediate goal for the pair is 1.0950, the next one is 100 points lower.
At the moment, only 35% of analysts turned out to side with the bulls, however, in anticipation of easing the monetary policy of the Fed, when moving to the medium-term forecast, their number rises to 55%.
If we turn to the indications of graphical analysis, it draws first the movement of the pair in the range of 1.1070-1.1165 on H4, and then its growth to the horizon of 1.1225. The next resistance is at 1.1285;
 
- GBP/USD. Since April 2018, the British currency weakened against the US dollar by 2,300 points. The last days did not become an exception: the pound lost 430 points since July 25. The reason is the same, Brexit. The coming to power of Boris Johnson and his promise to part with the EU on October 31 on a “tough” scenario make investors nervous and the pound fall.
75% of experts expect to see the pair in the 1.2000 zone soon. And if it manages to break through this support, it will be able to “fly” down another 100-150 points. This development is supported by 95% of the trend indicators and 90% of the oscillators on D1.
The remaining 10% of oscillators give signals about the pair being oversold. A respite is also expected by graphical analysis on D1 and by 25% of analysts, according to whom the pair can go to a side movement in the channel 1.2100-1.2250 for a while. In the case of any positive news regarding Brexit, growth of the pair to the level of 1.2375 is not excluded.
As for the medium-term forecast, according to 70% of analysts, the Bank of England will eventually be forced to acknowledge the serious risks of a “tough” exit from the EU and sharply tighten monetary policy. Thus, it will be the only large central bank to raise interest rates, which should lead to an increase in quotations of the British currency and their rise above the level of 1.2800. However, this can happen only when at least the basic conditions for the British exit from the EC become known;
 
- USD/JPY. The escalation of trade confrontation between the United States and China and the reduction in the interest rate on the US dollar increase the attractiveness of the yen as a safe haven currency. Therefore, 60% of analysts expect the pair to continue to decline in an effort to reach the January 2019 low around 105.00. 100% of the trend indicators and 85% of the oscillators on D1 also look to the south. However, 15% of oscillators are already giving signals about the pair being oversold. Resistance levels are 107.80, 109.00 and 110.00;

- Cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin holders try to find any arguments to push it up. Any reasons are suitable for this, even the Fed's interest rate cut: having lost interest in the dollar, investors will start investing in more profitable and risky assets, like Bitcoin. Although, if you think about it, what prevented them from doing so before? The rate cut by 0.25% is a very weak argument in this case.
Billionaire and head of the crypto-bank Galaxy Digital Mike Novograz said in an interview with Bloomberg that the price of Bitcoin will rise again to the historical maximum of $20 thousand per unit before the end of this year. At the same time, he does not exclude that in the course of bidding quotations may drop to $8,500 for 1 BTC. And popular presenter Joe Kernen has announced on CNBC television channel the rise of BTC to $55,000. In May 2020, bitcoin mining will be halved, which, in his opinion, should lead to a rapid increase in the value of the coin, thanks to its aggressive purchases before halving.
As for short-term forecasts, despite the fact that Bitcoin reached $10,650 on August 2, it will be possible to talk about the transition to sustainable growth only after the BTC/USD pair has confidently crossed the $11,000 mark. In the meantime, experts are divided into two equal camps. But all of them, both optimists and pessimists, call the horizon $10,000 as a Pivot Point.


Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin

https://nordfx.com/

 
First, a review of last week’s events:
 
- EUR/USD. Recall that the majority (65%) of experts expected further strengthening of the dollar and the slide of the pair to the 1.1150-1.1200 zone. And the pair went down, reaching the level of 1.1200 on the night of July 16-17. However, the strength of the bears dried up there and, two days later, the bulls returned the pair to where it started on Monday July 15, to the level of 1.1285. Thus, for the second week in a row, the pair is in a fairly narrow side channel, limiting its fluctuations to the boundaries of 1.1190 and 1.1285. The reason for such a lull (perhaps before the storm) is not the summer holidays of investors, but their expectation of the ECB meeting on Thursday July 25, at which the European regulator may decide to lower the interest rate;
 
- GBP/USD. If you look at the D1 chart, you can say that the pound experienced another technical correction last week. The reason for this was strong data on wages and retail sales in the UK. But on the whole, everything was developing exactly as the majority (60%) of the experts had supposed. Being in a downtrend since mid-March, the pair first tested the support in the 1.2440 zone again, then, breaking through it, reached the January 3, 2019.low, 1.2405, after which it dropped another 25 points and, groping the bottom at the level of 1.2380, turned up. As part of the correction, the pair rose by almost 180 points, and ended the week in the 1.2500 zone;
 
- USD/JPY. In general, the dynamics of the pair corresponded to analysts' forecasts. However, volatility was slightly lower than expected. So, against the background of the strong growth of the Dow Jones Industrial Average index, a third of the experts waited from the pair to rise to the zone 108.50-109.00 at the beginning of the week.  However, the bulls managed to raise it only to the height of 108.37. After that, the initiative went to the bears and, as predicted by 70% of analysts, the pair went south - to the lows of June around of 106.75-107.00. But here it missed the target by some 20 points as well. The fall stopped at 107.20. This was followed by another trend reversal, and the pair met the end of the week at around 107.70;
 
- Cryptocurrencies. US authorities have literally turned against Facebook's intentions to launch its cryptocurrency Libra. Moreover, the Financial Services Committee of the House of Representatives has prepared a bill to ban the release of cryptocurrencies not only by Facebook, but also by any other large companies with annual profits above $25 billion (for example, Google). If Trump signs this law, violators will pay a fine of $1 million per day. And although Facebook’s profit from Libra may be higher than this amount, the company may refuse this project, not wanting to aggravate relations with the authorities.
Against this background, Bitcoin continued to fall, reaching a four-week low at around $9.080. True, then there was a rebound upwards, as a result of which the losses of the BTC/USD pair decreased and amounted to about 11% in seven days.
Ethereum (ETH/USD) and Ripple (XRP/USD) went down as well. But Litecoin (LTC/USD) was able to return to its original values in the second half of the week: on the eve of the halving in August, investors found this altcoin undervalued and began buying it.
 

As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:
 
- EUR/USD. The markets continue to be ruled by the expectations of a quick decline in interest rates by the US Federal Reserve and the ECB. As was said, the market does not exclude that the European regulator will announce this already next Thursday, on July 25th. Although many experts believe that until the end of September the rate will remain at the same level, that is, zero. In the first case, the pair can go down sharply. In the second case, sharp fluctuations in the rate are not likely to be expected. Moreover, despite the slowdown in economic growth, the situation in the Eurozone is not so bad: manufacturers' prices are still growing, and the current operations surplus in June was almost €30 billion (compared with €22.5 billion in April). And this despite the trade wars!
It is interesting to see what the US will do in this situation? President Trump was outraged in his Twitter saying that the quantitative easing policy by the ECB and the depreciation of the euro against the dollar will allow the EU to "unfairly easier compete with the United States." "Europe is getting away with it for years - along with China and others!”, Trump wrote, which strengthened investors' expectations regarding the devaluation of the dollar and the rate cut by the Fed.
In whose direction, the euro or the dollar, will the scales swing? There are more questions than answers. Moreover, the statements of US Treasury Secretary Stephen Mnuchin are directly opposed to what Trump says and writes. So, recently, after the meeting of G7 finance ministers in France, Mnuchin assured journalists that there was no change in the policy of a strong dollar at the moment.
In the meantime, the absolute majority of experts - 75%! - expect the pair to rise to the height of 1.1350-1.1415. The nearest resistance is 1.1285.
The remaining 25% of analysts and 90% of oscillators and 100% of trend indicators on D1 strongly disagree with them. They all expect the pair to decline to the spring lows in the area of 1.1100-1.1115.
As for the events that may affect the formation of short-term trends, this week we can note the release of the following data: July 23 - results of a study of bank lending in the Eurozone, July 24 - indicators of Markit business index in Germany and the Eurozone, and annual data on US GDP, which will see the light on Friday July 26th.
 
- GBP/USD. On Tuesday, the minutes of the UK Financial Policy Committee meeting will be published. However, this rather important document is unlikely to be noticed by the market against the background of another event that will also happen on this day. On July 23, the British Conservative Party, after the counting of votes, will announce the name of the new prime minister. Recall that there are two candidates for this position: the former mayor of London and the former foreign minister, Boris Johnson, and the current foreign minister, Jeremy Hunt. And the fate of Brexit depends on who of them will occupy this post - how will the process of leaving the EU go, whether it will be completed and under what conditions.
Most analysts (65%) expect the pound to strengthen and the pair to grow to the zone of 1.2650-1.2750. The nearest resistance is 1.2575. The remaining 35% of experts believe that before it goes up, the pair should still return to the zone 1.2380-1.2405. Graphic analysis on D1 takes an even more radical position. According to his forecast, the pair can break through support in the 1.2400 zone and drop another 200 points within two weeks;
 
- USD/JPY. For this pair, graphical analysis on D1 draws first a movement in the range of 106.75-108.35, and then rising to the height of 109.00. However, only 40% of experts agree with this forecast, their opinion is based on recently published macroeconomic statistics.
Recall that the purpose of the Bank of Japan is the inflation rate of 2%. However, its achievement can only be dreamed of. The inflation in June 2019 turned out to be exactly the same as a year ago and was only 0.7%. In such a situation, the Japanese regulator may start thinking about lowering the interest rate, as their colleagues in the Asia-Pacific region have already done - Australia, India, Indonesia and South Korea.
The remaining 60% of analysts believe such a move by the Bank of Japan is unlikely. In their opinion, the probability of a decrease in the dollar rate at the US Federal Reserve meeting on July 31 is significantly higher. In this case, the pair can not only descend to the horizon of 106.75, but also, breaking through it, rush to the January 2019 low in the zone 105.00. 90% of the oscillators and 100% of the indicators on D1 are siding with the bears;

- Cryptocurrencies. At the end of Friday, July 19, the BTC/USD pair was in the area of a strong four-week support level (and now resistance level already) $10,500. And although it is impossible at the moment to formulate any kind of definite opinion, in the transition to the medium-term forecast, the overwhelming majority of experts (65%) vote for the growth of the pair.
In this case, problems of Facebook, Google and other large companies with the release of their own altcoins can play into the hands of bitcoin. Unlike Libra, bitcoin is a decentralized cryptocurrency, and therefore the US government will not be able to blame anyone about its release and regulation anyone. Moreover, the conspiracy theorism has again surfaced that the patronage of bitcoin is none other than the US Treasury, which will do everything possible to eliminate the competitors of this reference digital asset.


Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin

https://nordfx.com/

 
First, a review of last week’s events:
 
- EUR/USD. Recall that 60% of experts named the zone 1.1100-1.1185 as a local bottom. As for the remaining 40%, in their opinion, support 1.1185 should have become an insurmountable obstacle, after which analysts had expected the pair to return to {1level 1.1275-1.1320. That's exactly what happened: the bottom was fixed at 1.1190, after which the pair turned around and went up, reaching the height of 1.1285 at the maximum. Then there was a bounce, and the pair completed the five-day week at the Pivot Point level of the first half of summer,1.1270;
 
- GBP/USD. The line graph of the pair on D1 resembles a parabola, which, in general, reflects the two main forecasts of experts. 40% of them expected the pair to fall to the lows of December 2018 - January 2019, and it dropped to 1.2438. And then, as other analysts expected, the pair headed north, where it was stopped by resistance 1.2575;
 
- USD/JPY. 40% of analysts hoped that the pair would be able to overcome the resistance of 108.80 and rise to the level 109.00-109.60. It seemed that this forecast was about to come true. However, the pair did not manage to touch the horizon of 109.00: not gaining just a couple of points, it collapsed down and returned to the strong support of June-July 2019 in the zone 107.85;
 
- Cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin's extremely high volatility continues to keep investors and traders in constant tension, since fluctuations of 10-15-20% can not only enrich, but also ruin anyone in a short time. The reason, first of all, is the thin market. It is so thin that any fixation of profits by a major player, any more or less loud news, causes serious jumps in the rate.
For example, the statement by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell that Facebook should not be allow ed to launch its Libra cryptocurrency until the company settles all issues with regulatory authorities, turned the BTC/USD quotes down by 15% on Wednesday. Although it would seem, bitcoin should only be better in the absence of such a powerful competitor as Libra. As a result, the upward trend of the beginning of the week was interrupted and the pair returned to July 7 values in the $11,000-11,850 zone.
The stress tolerance of altcoins was significantly lower than that of the basic cryptocurrency. So, Ethereum (ETH/USD) lost 7% in seven days, Ripple (XRP/USD) lost 11%, and Litecoin (LTC/USD) lost 13%.
 

As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:
 
- EUR/USD. The markets continue to be ruled by expectations of a coming decline in interest rates by the US Federal Reserve and easing of the ECB’s monetary policy. In whose direction, the euro or the dollar, will the scale swing?
There is a high risk of slowing economic growth noted in the latest protocol of the European regulator. And if the situation does not improve in the near future (and why should it improve?), The ECB is ready to lower interest rates and increase bond purchases under the QE program. It is not necessary that this will be announced on July 25, however, the ECB meeting scheduled for this day should nevertheless bring some clarity.
It is possible that the issue of monetary policy easing, but this time in the United States, will also be addressed by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, who will speak on Tuesday, July 16 at a conference in Paris. He will read a report on the features of monetary policy in the post-crisis era there, and the tonality of this report can have a strong influence on the dollar rate.
Another important event that could affect the dollar pairs will be the publication of data on the growth rate of China's GDP for the 2nd quarter of 2019. This will take place on Monday, July 15, and many experts expect a rather strong slowdown in the economic growth of the Middle Kingdom, which can provide serious support to the US currency.
As for trend indicators and oscillators, they are in antiphase on H4 and D1: if most of them are green in H4, the picture is the opposite on the day time frame.
The forecasts of the majority (65%) of experts are also painted red, they expect further strengthening of the dollar and the slide of the pair to the zone of 1.1150-1.1200. The next target of the bears is the zone 1.1100-1.1115. As for the bulls, they see their goal in raising the pair to tier 1.1350-1.1410;

- GBP/USD. Statistics on the labor market, wage growth rates and unemployment rates in the UK will be published on Tuesday, July 16. And on Wednesday, July 17, we will know the data on inflation. But experts expect no surprises from either of them.
At the moment, 60% of analysts, supported by graphical analysis and most of the indicators on D1, expect the pound to test support 1.2440 again and, if successful, drop to the low of January 3, 2019 at the level of 1.2405.
The remaining 40% of experts advise to open positions on the buy. There are two main arguments: the increase in the spread of government bonds profitability in the UK and the USA, and the rising oil prices. Both of these factors should push the pound up.The nearest resistance is 1.2755, the next is 1.2825;   
 
- USD / JPY. It is known that this pair has a strong correlation with the US stock market, and on the eve of the Dow Jones Industrial Average - for the first time in history! - Overcame the mark of 27.000 and reached last Friday the mark of 27.330. The pair may show growth to the 108.50-109.00 zone against this background. The next target is 109.65. However, only 30% of analysts voted for such a scenario. The majority of experts (70%), with the support of 90% of trend indicators on D1, expect the pair to decline to June lows around 106.75-107.00.
As for the graphical analysis on D1, it draws the lateral movement of the pair in the channel 107.70-109.00 with the predominance of bullish moods;
 
- Cryptocurrencies. If on H4 and D1 time frames we observe lateral movement of the BTC/USD pair with gradual consolidation around $ 11,500-12,000 for the third week, the picture looks much more optimistic on W1 and MN: the uptrend is in full swing.
Positive predictions are made by many experts. For example, it was for the first time that the American rating agency Weiss Ratings assigned A-grade to Bitcoin, stressing that at the moment the potential benefits of investing in the first cryptocurrency exceed the risks. And Morgan Creek Capital Management CEO Mark Yusko suggested that the current market cycle could raise the price of Bitcoin to a new historical high of $30,000. Bitcoin mining is also growing. Researchers at Cambridge University have shown that today this process consumes more electricity than such countries as Switzerland or Kuwait. However, no one can predict yet at what point a new jump will occur, and experts' forecasts for the upcoming week do not go beyond the range of $9,725-13,765.


Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin

https://nordfx.com/

 
First, a review of last week’s events:
 
- EUR/USD. As forecasted, the meeting of US President Donald Trump with PRC President Xi Jinping on the final day of the Osaka summit did not put an end to the trade war. The leaders were able to agree only on a respite in the hostilities and the resumption of trade and economic consultations. However, this result was perceived by the market with moderate optimism. The dollar was strengthening its positions for the whole day of Monday, having dropped the pair almost 100 points. This was followed by a long lull, which could only be broken by the publication of data from the US labor market on Friday. The number of new jobs created outside the agricultural sector (NFP) increased more than three times in June compared with May (from 72K to 224K), which allowed the dollar to press the euro further. The pair almost reached the level of 1.1200, after which a small rebound followed, and it ended the trading session at 1.1225;
 
- GBP/USD. The main candidate for the post of British Prime Minister, Boris Johnson, continues to play the role of "horror" for markets. Johnson's statements regarding the possibility of a "hard" Brexit, without a deal, put pressure on the pound, dropping its quotes to the levels of the end of 2016 - beginning of 2017. It is natural that the positive statistics from the American labor market influenced the dynamics of the pair as well. As a result, the forecast that had been given by most experts last week turned out to be correct. As expected, the pair recorded a local low in the 1.2480 zone, after which it climbed 45 points, where it met the end of the working five-day session;
 
- USD/JPY. Recall that a clear forecast for this pair could not be formed a week ago.40% of the experts had voted for the strengthening of the Japanese currency and the movement of the pair to the south. Another 30% turned their looks to the north, while the rest of the analysts just shrugged shoulders. As a result, they were all right: the pair dropped to the level of 107.52 by the middle of the week, and then turned up and on Friday, July 5, it returned to the highs of Monday, July 01. Thus, the dollar was able to win back only about 55 points from the yen in five days, practically keeping within the boundaries of the side corridor of the first half of this June;
 
- Cryptocurrencies. The BTC/USD updated the two-week low last Tuesday, dropping to $9.725. That is, after an explosive growth of 155% in May-June, Bitcoin lost almost half of what it earned in these two months in just seven days, from June 26 to July 2. There is nothing surprising in this cryptocurrency volatility. And many experts talk about possible corrections of 30% and even 50%. But is it possible to call such fluctuations a “correction”?
After the fall, Bitcoin turned around and somewhat regained its position, rising to $11,100 by the evening of Friday July 5th. Ethereum (ETH/USD), Ripple (XRP/USD) and Litecoin (LTC/USD), following the benchmark coin, showed similar ups and downs. On average, the weekly range of fluctuations of coins was from 17% to 23%.
 

As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:
 
- EUR/USD. Market reacted with great attention to the June data on employment in the US. According to many experts, they may influence the decision of the Fed regarding the interest rate reduction. According to forecasts, this could happen at the meeting of the Federal Reserve on July 31. A low NFP would seriously increase the likelihood of a rate cut by 25 or even 50 basis points. But, as mentioned above, NFP has grown more than 3 times. It turns out that the situation in the US economy is not so critical. So why then pursue a policy of easing and give away cheap money?
Investors will try to hear the answer to this question from the speeches of Fed Chairman J.Powell on July 09, 10 and 11, as well as read in the lines of the minutes of the Fed meeting on Wednesday July 10.
The ECB meeting will take place this Wednesday. Markets are also expecting additional measures to stimulate the EU economy from the European regulator. Hour X is scheduled for July 25.     
In whose direction the scales will swing is not yet clear. The easing of the monetary policy by the Fed may weaken the dollar. A similar easing by the ECB will push the euro down. And it can happen at the same time. Just one observation: the yield of 30-year German government bonds showed a decrease, up to a base point, which coincided with the dynamics of the yield of 30-year US bonds.
By the way, couple of words about Germany. This country will publish a number of macroeconomic data on Monday, July 8, including statistics on the trade balance for May. According to forecasts, it may be positive, which will somewhat strengthen the position of the euro.
However, despite this, 60% of experts believe that the pair has not yet reached the local bottom and expect to see it in the zone of 1.1100-1.1185. 90% of trend indicators and 80% of oscillators on H4 and D 1 agree with them. As for the remaining 40% of analysts, in their opinion, the pair will not be able to break through support in the 1.1185 zone and will return to 1.1275-1.1320. The next targets are 1.1350 and 1.1400. It should be noted that in the transition from the weekly to monthly forecast, the number of bull supporters among experts increases from 40% to 65%. They are supported by 20% of the oscillators that are now in the oversold zone;

- GBP/USD. Despite statements by the head of the Bank of England Mark Carney, most experts believe that neither on August 1, nor even on September 19 will interest rates on the pound be reduced. Hope on the "soft" Brexit does not fade. This provides a support to the British currency, although minor. Another positive factor for the pound is that this currency has now reached the zone of a three-week low. That is why 60% of experts expect the pair to rebound up and keep in the range of 1.125 0-1.2750. The nearest resistance levels are 1.2570 and 1.2700.
Supported by the graphical analysis on D1, 40% of analysts adhere to the opposite point of view, according to which the pair should fall to the lows of December 2018 - January 2019, to the zone 1.2405-1.2475.
As for the indicators, the vast majority of them are red on both H4 and D1. However, already about 15% of oscillators signal the pair is oversold;
 
- USD/JPY. Interest in the yen is weakening against the backdrop of the strengthening dollar and the growing attractiveness of risky assets. But it is only 40% of analysts who expect that the pair will be able to overcome resistance in the area of 108.50-108.80 and rise to the echelon of 109.00-109.60. The remaining 60% of experts believe that the pair will move for some time in the side channel 107.55-108.50, attempting to break through its lower boundary, and, if successful, can sink to the horizon 106.75. 15% of oscillators on H4 and D1, which are in the overbought zone, signal about the possible movement of the pair downwards;
 
- Cryptocurrencies. In general, the news background is positive for the crypto market. Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies continue to attract major experienced investors. For example, according to Bloomberg, the billionaire from the “old guard”, 75-year-old Henry R. Kravis, could not resist either and has recently become an investor in the cryptocurrency fund of ParaFi Capital. Interest in Bitcoin has peaked in the past 17 months. The subject has bypassed by the number of requests in Google Donald Trump and Kim Kardashian, who previously occupied the first and second places. Even the Chinese authorities have changed their attitude to cryptocurrencies. In the report of the official information agency of the country, Xinhua, bitcoin was called an asset that has the characteristics of an ideal “safe haven” for investors.
The optimistic forecast remains the same: $50-100 thousand per BTC coin in the next one and a half years. At the same time, “correction” drop downs are possible, reaching 50 percent or more. In the meantime, 30% of experts say that the BTC/USD pair may drop to support $9,200, 40% expect it to rise to a height of $14,000, and 30% talk about lateral movement in the channel $9,725-12,200.


Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin

https://nordfx.com/

 
First, a review of last week’s events:
 
- EUR/USD. It was two weeks ago that most experts predicted the rebound of the pair up. The target for the bulls was to return to the level of 1.1350, and then rise to the zone 1.1420-1.1450. This forecast came true, if not by 100%, then by 99%: the pair recorded a local high at the height of 1.1411 on June 25. There followed a slight reversal after that, and, waiting for the results of negotiations at the G20 summit in Osaka, Japan, the pair turned into a sideways trend in the narrow channel 1.1345-1.1390, ending the working week at 1.1370;
 
- GBP/USD. After jumps of 250 points in the second decade of June, the British currency calmed down a bit, and the past week was relatively calm for it. The pair returned to the corridor 1.2650-1.2765 and finished the week near the strong support/resistance zone 1.2700;
 
- USD/JPY. The currency of the G20 host country, Japan, came close to the monthly Pivot Point as well. In the run-up to the meeting of US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping during the G-20 leaders meeting, demand for safe haven currencies fell slightly, pushing off from the low of the last 5.5 months at 106.77, the pair rose to 107.90 yen for 1 US dollar;
 
- Cryptocurrencies. “Bitcoin does not stop!”, some exclaim. “It is easily stopped,” others grin. One thing is clear: those who were the first to take the train leaving in the right direction and got off at the right stop can get a huge profit. Those who jumped into the last car or mixed up the trains will receive huge losses.
Bitcoin grew from $7,500 to $13,765 just in the last three weeks, that is, more than 80%. And then, in just two days, it crashed to $10,390, shrinking 25%. And the next day, again an increase of 15%...
Interestingly, at the time of the BTC fall by 25%, the capitalization of the crypto market declined by only 13% (from $367.42 billion to $318.61 billion). This suggests that many investors are in no hurry to take profits and get rid of their bitcoins but expect its growth to continue.
At the same time, analysts warn that one should not expect the same rise from altcoins. This is clearly seen even in the charts of the TOP cryptocurrencies, such as, for example, Litecoin (LTC/USD) or Ripple (XRP/USD). But Ethereum (ETH/USD) quite accurately repeats the dynamics of the reference coin.
 

As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:
 
- EUR/USD. Markets do not expect any breakthrough solutions from the work of the G20 summit. The bilateral talks between the leaders of the world's most powerful economies at this forum, and, first of all, the talks between Chinese leader Xi Jinping and US President Trump on Saturday June 29, are of much greater interest. Investors are hoping for a decrease in the intensity in the trading opposition of these countries, and if this happens, on Monday trading in the foreign exchange market may open with gaps.
However, many analysts still look at this event calmly enough and believe that there will be no global truce in this war. Tariffs have affected 10,000 categories of goods from China, and one of the conditions voiced by Beijing, is the cancellation by the United States of all the existing duties. The probability that Trump will go to such a step is close to zero. The ban on cooperation with the Chinese company Huawei is unlikely to be lifted either. The parties will warmly smile at each other, shake hands, but hardly any of them will make serious concessions. Such a zero (or minimal) result of the meeting will allow Trump, on the eve of the presidential election in the United States, to announce his next “victory”, and for China to gain time.
In such a situation, the US Federal Reserve will become an important figure in this “chess game”, which, against the background of falling global stock indices, will still be forced to ease its monetary policy, which will lead to a weakening of the US currency.
The weaker US macroeconomic data, which will be released next week, may push the Fed to reduce interest rates. Indicators of the ISM business activity index will be known on July 1 and July 3, and data from the labor market (including NFP) will traditionally be made public on the first Friday of the month, July 05
A quarter of experts believe that the Fed may cut rates by 25 or even 50 basis points very soon, at its meeting on July 31. The market hopes to get more accurate signals from the speeches of FOMC member Richard Clarida in Finland on July 1 and Fed Vice Chairman John Williams on July 2 in Zurich.
On the other hand, the political risks and economic problems of the Eurozone have not disappeared. And it is not excluded that the ECB will also undertake an additional package of measures to stimulate the economy, and this will happen at the meeting on July 25.
It is not possible to give any specific forecast for the upcoming week, since the opinions of the experts are almost equally divided. However, if you go to the monthly and medium-term forecasts, 75% of analysts believe that the pair will definitely make another attempt to update the lows of spring 2019 and still break through the support in the 1.1100 zone. The following targets for bears are 1.0900 and 1.0800. In the opinion of the remaining 25% experts, the 1.1100 zone is the limit of the fall, and the pair expects growth to the zone of 1.1530-1.1650.
As for the indicators, most of the trend indicators and oscillators on D1 are colored green. However, it is already 20% of oscillators that give signals that the pair is overbought;
 
- GBP/USD. British Prime Minister Theresa May gradually fades away, and her most likely successor, Boris Johnson, becomes the main newsmaker on Brexit. He stated last week that, becoming the head of the government, he would do everything possible to preserve the possibility of “hard” withdrawal of his country from the EU, without a deal. According to Johnson, such a threat will strengthen his position in negotiations with the European Union, and for this the politician is even ready to set a recess in the work of Parliament.
The markets have already reacted to such rhetoric by the pound falling against the euro. As for GBP/USD, here, most experts (65%) expect the British currency to further weaken, and the pair will fall first to 1.2475-1.2500 and then, during July, to January 3, 2019 low, 1.2400.
35% of analysts still keep optimism and hope for a positive course of negotiations with the EU. In this case, the pair will continue to move up. The immediate goals are 1.2775 and 1.2830, then 1.2930.
The compromise option in the form of cyclic movement on the channel 1.2500-1.2860 is offered by graphical analysis on D1;
 
- USD/JPY. As already mentioned, the most likely outcome of the meeting between President Trump and Chairman X on the G20 is the continuation of endless and fruitless talks between the two countries. In such a situation, global stock indices are waiting for a fall, US monetary policy is easing, and the dollar is weakening. Investors will naturally respond to all this by increasing the demand for defensive assets, including the yen.
However, this not a case for one day, and not even one week. In the meantime, only 40% of experts and D1 graphical analysis vote for the strengthening of the Japanese currency and the movement of the pair to the south. Another 30% turned their looks to the north, while the rest of the analysts just shake shoulders. Approximately the same situation is with the oscillators and trend indicators on D1.
Support levels are in zones 106.80-107.00, then 105.50-106.00. Resistances are at 108.85, 109.70 and 110.65;
 
- Cryptocurrencies. - Morgan Creek Digital's founder and partner, Anthony "Pomp" Pompliano has predicted the growth of Bitcoin to $100 thousand in his letter addressed to the company's customers. In his opinion, the probability of such a development in the next 2.5 years is 70-75%.
A similar forecast is given by a well-known trader and analyst Peter Brandt. “Bitcoin is looking at $100,000. The BTC/USD pair is going through the fourth parabolic phase since 2010. No other market has looked like this on logarithmic graphics in my 45 years of trading,” he writes.
But one of the Fundstrat Global Advisors founders Tom Lee as well as 45 experts believe that Bitcoin expects a powerful correction. And it’s not at all the fact that the fall of BTC / USD by 25% on July 26-27 was exactly that. Analysts do not rule out a decrease in the pair to $7,500-8,000.
As for the altcoins from the TOP-10, judging by the capitalization graphs, they are gradually losing ground to digital currency No. 1. Thus, it is only Bitcoin that has shown growth over the past 12 months, increasing its share in the total market capitalization from 41% to 66%. The share of the other coins either falls or, at best, remains at the same level.
   

P.S. As forecasted above, the meeting of US President Donald Trump with PRC President Xi Jinping on the final day of the Osaka summit did not put an end to the trade war. The leaders were able to agree only on a respite in the hostilities and the resumption of trade and economic consultations on the basis of "mutual respect and equality."
 

Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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The peak of the vacation season is approaching, which usually entails a decline in business activity, including that in financial markets. On the one hand, a decrease in the volatility of major currency pairs, which is already low, entails a fall in profits, but on the other hand, it also reduces potential losses in the event of a failed position.
 
We have repeatedly discussed in our previous forecasts, the trade wars led by US President Trump with both China and Europe, and the possibility of a global economic crisis and local recessions, Brexit and other political risks, prospects for a rate increase by the Fed and quantitative easing in the Eurozone, as well as many other factors influencing the formation of both short-term and long-term trends. If we talk about the mood of experts in the coming months, for the most part they expect that the US dollar will be able to strengthen its position in relation to other leading world currencies.
 
- EUR/USD. Here, 75% of analysts, supported by 80% of indicators on MN, believe that the pair will definitely make another attempt to update the lows of spring 2019 and will finally break through support in the 1.1100 zone. The targets for the bears are 1.0900 and 1.0800 (of course, a possible margin of ± 25?35 points must be considered). According to the remaining 25% of experts, the zone of 1.1100 is the fall limit, and the pair will now go to the zone 1.1530-1.1650. Most trend indicators and oscillators on W1 are also colored green.

 
- USD/CHF. The euro and the Swiss franc are quite strongly correlated: the European currency is falling against the dollar, and the Swiss currency is losing ground at the same time. That is why here, just as in the case of EUR/USD, most experts (75%) have preferred the “American”. According to them, the pair is expected to rise, first to the level of 1.0130, and then 100 points higher, to the height of 1.0230. By the way, about 15% of the oscillators on W1 and MN are already signaling that the pair is oversold. An alternative view is presented by a quarter of experts who do not see the dollar above the symbolic 1.0000 level. In their opinion, no more than 0.9600-0.9700 francs will be given for the “American” in the second half of the summer.
 
- NZD/USD and AUD/USD. We only talk about those pairs In this review, regarding the future of which most experts have already more or less formed an opinion. One of these pairs is NZD/USD: here 85% of the votes have been cast for the bears. If this prediction turns out to be correct, the New Zealand kiwi may fall to the low of 10/08/2018 in the zone of 0.6420. 90% of the oscillators on both timeframes, W1 and MN, agree with this forecast.
Bears have scored a bit less support when voting for the future of the nearest “colleague” of the New Zealander, the Australian dollar. Those turned out to be only 60%. True, they have been supported by almost 85% of trend indicators and oscillators on W1 and MN. The purpose of the bears is to update the June 17 lows, reaching the bottom in the zone of 0.6750-0.6800. 20% have favored the growth of the pair to the height of 0.7300, and another 20% have predicted a calm movement along the Pivot Point at the level of 0.7000.
 
- And there are two more pairs, the forecasts for which have seemed to us quite interesting. Both are tied to the British pound, these are GBP/JPY and EUR/GBP.
70% of analysts believe that the pair GBP/JPY has reached its bottom at 135.65, and now it is expected to grow first to the height of 141.50, and then a rise above the horizon 143.75 is not excluded. Those experts who expect a tough Brexit and the UK exit from the EU without a deal see the pair at 131.00.
Even though the British currency fell against the euro throughout May and early June, most analysts are looking at the future of the pound rather optimistically. Just as in the case of GBP/JPY, 70% have voted for the growth of the pound and the decline of the EUR/GBP pair to the zone of 0.8600-0.8680. The next target is the lows of March 2019 in the area 0.8470. As for the bulls, they aim to rise above the high of 01/01/2019, breaking the height of 0.9100.


Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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First, a review of last week’s events:
 
- EUR/USD. The German Ministry of Economics has issued a gloomy forecast on the global outlook for the leading EU economy. The statement by the head of the IMF, Christine Lagarde, that the overall growth of the Eurozone economy slowed down, has not inspired investors either. Even the information that the share of the euro in the global reserves of leading countries began to grow could not help the European currency. This share is 20.7% now, and it is still very far from the US dollar with its 61.7%. The market does not forget about the possible resuscitation of the ECB quantitative easing policy (QE).
In general, the week did not work for the euro, and, as most experts assumed (60%), the pair turned to support in the zone 1.1200-1.1215 from the very beginning of the five-day week. However, it managed to achieve it only at the very end of the trading session, on the evening of Friday, June 14; therefore, a breakthrough below this zone did not happen;
 
- GBP/USD. The holders of the British currency are not happy with the news either. And again, the news concern Brexit above all. It is highly likely that the post of the Conservative Party of Great Britain leader and, accordingly, the post of prime minister will be occupied by Boris Johnson. Following the first round, he is supported by 114 legislators. His closest competitor, Foreign Minister Jeremy Hunt, has only 43 votes. This does not predict anything good for the pound, since Johnson considers it necessary to reconsider the deal that Teresa May agreed to with the European Union earlier. And this is a clear increase in political risks and another reason for the flight of investors from the British market. As a result, over the past five days, the pair dropped by about 150 points and finished the week at 1.2585;
 
- USD/JPY. Recall that last week 40% of analysts turned their views to the north, 40% to the south and 20% to the east. It is this equality of strength between bulls and bears that was reflected on the chart of the pair, which spent the whole week in a very narrow range, 108.15-108.80, and completed it at the level 108.55;
 
- cryptocurrency. On June 14, the President of the United States celebrated his 73rd birthday. A few days earlier, it was announced that Google users are much more likely to search for information about Bitcoin, and not about Donald Trump. There is another piece of news, testifying to the popularity of the basic cryptocurrency. It turns out that 60% of BTC coins have not moved anywhere over the past year, indicating a high investor interest in this asset.
This is confirmed by the fact that, starting from June 10, Bitcoin is steadily growing, approaching the May 31 high at the level of $9,100 once again. On Friday evening, June 14, it managed to reach the height of $8,700, having risen in price by about 15% in five days.
Litecoin (LTC/USD) maintains good momentum as well, at the maximum it reached $143.6. Ethereum (ETH/USD) has not added a single point in two weeks, but the Ripple is moving steadily down, having lost about 10% during the same time.

 
As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:
 
- EUR/USD. The hot breath of another war in the Middle East is felt again. On June 13, two tankers caught fire off the coast of the United Arab Emirates. The US Department of State has accused Iran of a torpedo attack on the ships, Iran denies all the charges. But despite this, the oil price flew up.
The cold trade wars do not subside either. The United States seems to be confident of its victory over China, threatening to expand duties on all Chinese imports if Xi Jinping does not appear to meet with Donald Trump in Osaka, Japan. In response, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce announced that it would “fight to the end,” putting domestic consumption as a priority. The US threatens the EU with new duties as well.
Now, the upcoming events. If last week was dedicated to inflation, the coming one can be called the week of interest rates. The decision on the interest rate of the US Federal Reserve will be known on Wednesday, June 19, and the Banks of Japan and England will announce their decisions on the rate on Thursday. However, neither in the first, nor in the second, nor in the third case should you expect any sensations, all the rates will most likely remain unchanged. Of much greater interest are the accompanying comments, which may give clearer guidelines on the monetary policy of the mega-regulators. According to the Wall Street Journal experts, the likelihood of a recession in the United States has risen to its highest level since 2011, and therefore 70% of them expect the dollar rate to decline as early as this July-September.
In the meantime, 65% of analysts are expecting the pair to rebound up. The euro may be supported by the rise in oil prices associated with the conflict off the coast of the UAE. The target of the bulls is a return to the level 1.1350, the next target is the zone 1.1420-1.1450.
It is only 35% of the experts who side with the bears. The target is to break through the support around 1.1200-1.1215 and reach the horizon of 1.1100. Over 90% of trend indicators on H4 and D1 stand for the fall of the pair as well. As for the oscillators, the picture is completely different. 70% of them are colored red on H4, and 30% give signals the pair being oversold. A third of the oscillators are red on D1, a third is green, and another third is colored neutral gray;
 
- GBP/USD. If we talk about macroeconomic indicators, in addition to the already mentioned interest rate decision, we are expecting the publication of the Bank of England’s inflation report on Monday and the consumer price index on Wednesday, which are predicted to play against the pound. However, their influence will be not strong and short.
Brexit is still the key factor for this pair's conduct. Markets have almost come to terms with Boris Johnson at the helm of the UK. Now the question is how the EU will respond to his attempt to start negotiations from the scratch. And here again, there is no clarity. That is why the votes of experts are divided almost equally: one third stand for the growth of the pair, one third expect its fall, and one third simply abstain from any forecasts.
As for the indicators, the majority points to the south, but about 10% of the oscillators on H4 and D1 are in the oversold zone;
 
- USD/JPY. Here, the picture is not very clear either. Experts speak about the growth of risk-free sentiment almost unanimously. About the fact that the share of the US dollar in foreign exchange reserves of many countries has reached a historical low. About the fact that countries continue to diversify their assets in favor of safe haven currencies, such as the yen. About the fact that the recent auctions of 10- and 30-year Treasury securities in the United States reduced their profitability and stimulated good demand for the yen. In such circumstances, it would seem  the quotes of the Japanese currency should soar to the skies. But the yen ... has been crawling in a narrow channel not exceeding 100 points, for the second week.
However, 80% of experts remain optimistic about its future, predicting a decline of the pair first to the level of 107.80, and then even lower by 80-100 points. Graphical analysis and 70% of trend indicators on D1 agree with this forecast. An alternative point of view is expressed by 20% of analysts. The zones of resistance are 108.85-109.00, 109.70-109.90 and 110.65-110.90;

- Cryptocurrencies. If Bitcoin can reach the May 31 high at $9,100, and then continue to grow steadily, we can say that the fall in the first days of June was nothing more than a correction. The target of bulls is the symbolic height of $10,000 per coin. 70% of experts are sure that this will happen if not until the end of June, then during the summer. The remaining 30% are more pessimistic and believe that we will soon see the pair BTC/USD in the $7,500–8,000 area.


Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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First, a review of last week’s events:
 
- EUR/USD. It seems that Mario Draghi has already lost the ability to influence the market, which is waiting for the arrival of the new head of the ECB to replace him. At least, the rather soft rhetoric of Draghi and his reasoning about a possible quantitative easing, sounded last Thursday, was perceived quite calmly by investors. The euro was not weakened by the statement that it was not worth expecting a rate increase until the middle of next year either. As a result, surprisingly, the press conference of the ECB leadership played into the hands of the European currency, and the pair went up to the level above 1.1300. There followed a smooth rollback to the level of 1.1250 and ... a new breakthrough to the north at the time of publication of data on the labor market in the US on Friday, June 07.
Experts were prepared for the fact that the NFP indicator (the number of new jobs created outside the agricultural sector) could “shrink” by about 30%, but almost no one expected a reduction of 3 times (from 224K to 75K). As a result, the pair soared to the level of 1.1345, and the weekly swing was 180 points. As for the end of the five-day week, at the end of the trading session, 1 euro was worth $1.1333;
 
- GBP/USD. They say that no news is good news. Following the resignation of Prime Minister Theresa May, there were no significant events in the British Isles, which allowed the pound to strengthen its position during all week, step by step. President Trump's visit to Queen Elizabeth II hit the front pages of the secular, but not the economic chronicle. And Mrs. May's efforts, who directed the remnants of her influence in order to prevent the "hard" Brexit, could only slightly support the uptrend of the British currency. The same applies to weak statistics on employment in the United States. As a result, the pair returned to the highs of a week ago, putting the final chord practically where the analysts who were waiting for correction indicated, at the level of 1.2733;
 
- USD/JPY. Recall that the votes of the experts last week were divided as follows: 50% sided with the bears, 25% sided with the bulls, and 25% stood in the middle confused. We can say that it is this discrepancy that is reflected on the pair chart.
Quotes of the yen against the dollar are strongly correlated with the US Treasury bonds. The fall of the latter stopped on Monday, June 3, stopping the pair from falling below the mark of 107.80. Then the dollar began to regain its position, and by the time of the NFP data publication reached the height of 108.65, after which the pair sharply went down, felt the bottom at the level of 107.88, and finished the week at 108.18;
 
- Cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin has been declared “halal” in Egypt, in accordance with the Sharia law. The new decree lifts the ban on cryptocurrency, in force since 2018, and this is probably the best news of the week. In general, the background was mostly neutral. In the absence of the news, as many analysts assumed, despite attempts to turn the pair up, a correction continued: the bulls were taking profits, and this sale stopped the influx of new investors. If on Friday, May 31, the BTC/USD pair was at the level of $9,100, on Thursday, June 6, it fixed a locallow, dropping to $7,450 and losing 18% in six days.
The Ethereum chart (ETH/USD) almost completely repeated the dynamics of the elder brother, Bitcoin. But the Ripple and the Litecoin turned out to be much more capable of “regeneration”. Thus, the XRP/USD pair almost returned to the values of the end of the previous week, and LTC/USD even slightly exceeded them.

 
As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:
 
- EUR/USD. Speech by Mario Draghi on June 6 pushed the euro up. On Wednesday, June 12, we are expecting his next speech, from which investors still hope to get clearer guidelines on the ECB’s monetary policy for the foreseeable future. Another source of operational information for the market is President Trump's Twitter, in which he often shares information and plans regarding his trade wars, primarily with China.
As for the exact figures, the upcoming week will be devoted to inflation. On Wednesday, the CPI index values will be published by the National Bureau of Statistics of China, on Wednesday and Friday, consumer price indices in the USA will become known, and on Thursday, June 13, the German ones.
In the meantime, expert opinions are divided as follows. 60%, supported by graphical analysis on D1 and 20% of oscillators that give signals the pair being overbought, expect that it will try to break through the support of 1.1215 and retest the lows in the 1.1100 zone. The alternative point of view is held by 40% of experts and the vast majority of oscillators and trend indicators. In case they are right, the pair will be able to consolidate above the level of 1.1400, aiming at the resistance of 1.1525;
 
- GBP/USD. At the beginning of the coming week, candidates for the post of the UK Conservative Party leader will likely be known. It will also become more or less clear, how many votes they can get by moving to the post of Prime Minister, and to what extent the likelihood of a “hard” Brexit and exit from the EU without an agreement is likely.
Currently, 55% of the experts, supported by graphical analysis on H4, continue to side with the bulls and 45% side with the bears. The trend indicators have exactly the same ratio: 55% are for the growth of the pair and 45% stand for its fall. Oscillators have a slightly different picture. There, despite the overwhelming advantage of the “green”, 10% of the indicators on H4 and D1 give signals the pair is overbought, which can indicate either a fairly strong correction or a beginning of a downward trend.
Some impact on the behavior of the pair may be exercised by the data on the labor market in the UK, which will be published on Tuesday, June 11. But, with a high degree of probability, it can be assumed that this influence will be mild and short-lived;
 
- USD/JPY. It is also unlikely that the GDP data in Japan, which will be released on Monday, June 10, will have an impact on the market. The main drivers are still the yield of US government bonds, oil prices and the course of the US-China negotiations. In such a situation of uncertainty, 40% of analysts have turned their eyes to the north, 40% to the south and 20% to the east. The main support levels are 107.75 and 107.00, resistance levels are 109.15, 109.65, 110.35 and 110.65;
 
- Cryptocurrencies. Will the current Bitcoin correction be actually only temporary? Or is this the beginning of a new downtrend? Disputes about how applicable methods of analyzing the movement of fiat currencies to digital currencies, flare up with a new force.
Proponents of the theory of growth, of course, are Bitcoin holders, who are trying in every way to warm up the market with all sorts of news. For example, the founder of the company Dadiani Syndicate has reported that she received an order from one of the clients to acquire 25% of all currently issued bitcoins (which is about 4.5 million coins worth about $36 billion). Another piece of news is that only from the beginning of June, the largest BTC wallets have attracted $2.72 billion. But if this is so, why, despite the influx of these billions, the BTC/USD rate fell by 18% in six days?
Although, in fairness, it should be noted that at the end of the working week, on June 7, both Bitcoin and the major Altcoins attempted to recover, and the BTC/USD pair returned to the $7,800-8,000 zone, which can be considered Pivot Point for the last three weeks.
As for analysts, at the moment 50% of them believe that the pair should go down to the horizon $7,000, 30% - for returning to the zone above $9,000, and the remaining 20% are for lateral movement in the channel $7,500-8,450.


Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin

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First, a review of last week’s events:
 
- EUR/USD. President Trump decided to shake up the markets once again. Putting Chinese problems aside for the time being, he turned his eyes towards Mexico. As he failed to build a wall on the border with it, in order to stop the flow of illegal immigrants, we will punish Mexico with the dollar, the US president decided, and increased the duties on Mexican-made goods. Onwards and upwards: in July the rates will be raised up to 10%, in August - up to 15%, in September - up to 20%, and in October - up to 25%.
It is not excluded that such a demonstration of power pursued a double goal: in addition to the punishment of Mexico City, he also wants to scare Beijing: see what we do with the recalcitrant!
Of course, China is not Mexico, everything is much more complicated here, but, be that as it may, the dollar continued to grow. The results of the elections to the European Parliament also played in its favor. As a result, the pair recorded a local low at the level of 1.1115 on Thursday, May 30, and ended May near the monthly Pivot Point, at 1.1167. Thus, the euro weakened against the dollar by about 350 points in the first five months.
It is appropriate to recall that a year ago at the same time, the European currency lost 2.5 times more, about 900 points, in just a month and a half. So, both traders and brokers have every reason to complain about lower volatility.
 
- GBP/USD. After the resignation statement of Prime Minister Theresa May and success of the Brexit supporters in the elections to the European Parliament the pound continues to be under pressure. Recall that 65% of experts, supported by 90% of oscillators and trend indicators, voted for the pair to fall further. This was exactly what happened. The pair not only went down, but also updated the lows of spring 2019, reaching the bottom on the horizon 1.2557, then a rebound followed, and the final chord sounded at 1.2630;
 
- USD/JPY. The growth of tension entails the growth of anti-risk sentiment. The blow, struck by Trump in Mexico, caused a collapse of almost all market assets, first of all, the oil price. And investors have once again turned their eyes to a safe haven called the Japanese Yen, where one can wait out the next economic storm.
As a result, unlike the euro and the pound, which fell against the dollar, the yen, on the contrary, strengthened, reaching 108.30 on Friday, May 31, where it met summer, fully confirming the forecast given by 75% of analysts, 85% of oscillators and 100% trend indicators;
 
- Cryptocurrencies. For the third week in a row, Bitcoin stubbornly stepped up to the cherished $10,000, moving according to the “step forward, half step back” scheme. So, having fought off the horizon of $7,880, the BTC/USD pair went up sharply late in the evening of Sunday, May 26, reaching $8,955 on Monday. Then a correction of 5.5% followed, and one more spurt upwards, as a result of which it was seen at the height of $9,100. However, it failed to gain a foothold above $9,000, the bulls began to fix their profits, and Bitcoin said goodbye to the spring at $8.510, having risen in price by more than 120% for these three months.
As for the pairs ETH/USD, LTC/USD and XRP/USD, both Ethereum and Litecoin as well as Ripple, after growth following the reference cryptocurrency, returned to the mid-May values by the end of the working week.

 
As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:
 
- EUR/USD. In addition to US President Trump, the main engines of this pair are the US Federal Reserve and the ECB. Recall that the current head of the European Central Bank, Mario Draghi, leaves office on October 31. The main contender for his chair now is Jens Weidmann, who, being a supporter of a strong euro, actively supports the increase in interest rates. Representatives of the Fed, by contrast, hint at a possible reduction in the dollar rate due to a possible slowdown in the US GDP. Such a situation should presumably play in favor of the euro. However, according to Bloomberg, the ECB will begin to raise the rate no earlier than April 2020, and during this time a lot can change. Moreover, the political and economic problems of the Eurozone can be observed already now.
Based on the above, 60% of experts, supported by graphical analysis on D1, vote for the pair to fall to support 1.0975. The next target is 100 points lower.
Most indicators also look to the south: 50% of them are colored red, 25% are green and 25% are neutral gray. 
Supporters of bulls are currently in the minority. In their opinion, the pair will not be able to break through support in the 1.1100 zone and it can reach the height of 1.1265-1.1325 on the rebound.
Now, the events of the coming week, which are worth paying attention to. On Monday, June 3, we are waiting for the publication of business activity indices in the Eurozone, the United States and China, and on Tuesday, for the data on inflation and unemployment in the Eurozone. Thursday, June 6, will also be filled with news from Europe. These are data on GDP, the ECB decision on interest rates, and, most importantly, the ECB press conference on monetary policy. And, finally, as usual, we will see the publication of statistics on the US labor market on the first Friday of the month. Experts expect that the NFP may fall by about 30% (from 263K to 190K), which will weaken the dollar for a while;

- GBP/USD. The main contender for the post of British Prime Minister today is the former Mayor of London and Foreign Minister Boris Johnson. And this is bad for the pound, since Johnson is a supporter of the "tough" Brexit and exit from the EU without a deal. Such an outcome scares the market, and today 65% of experts, supported by 90% of oscillators and 100% of trend indicators on D1, expect the British currency to weaken further and the fall of the pair first to support 1.2555 and then to the 2018 lows, 1.2475 and 1.2405.
The remaining 35% of analysts believe that the pair’s behavior over the past two weeks is a precursor to a strong correction, as a result of which it can return to the height of 1.2745, or even reach the resistance of 1.2825.
A compromise is offered by graphical analysis on D1. According to its readings, the pair can first rise to the level of 1.2825, and then, turning around, find the bottom in the zone of 1.2405-1.2475;
 
- USD/JPY. Despite the fact that 100% of the trend indicators and 85% of the oscillators on H4 and D1 are colored red, the situation is not that simple: 15% of oscillators are already giving signals that the pair is being oversold. Support levels are 107.75 and 107.00, resistance levels are 109.15, 109.65, 110.35 and 110.65.
As for the experts, the votes were divided as follows: 50% side with the bears, 25% side with the bulls, and 25% are at a loss in the middle. Whose position will be the most correct will depend on the stock markets with which the pair has a strong correlation, and, as usual, on Trump's tweets, dedicated primarily to the course of the US-China trade war. At the same time, when transitioning to the medium-term forecast, the situation changes radically: here it is already 75% who give the palm to the dollar;
 
- Cryptocurrencies. “Six years ago, in 2013, an unusual message from Luka Magnotta from the Future was published, which predicted the price of Bitcoin, which turned out to be surprisingly accurate. “On average, every year the cost of Bitcoin increased about 10 times,” Magnotta wrote. “It grew from $0.1 in 2010 to $1 in 2011, to $10 in 2012, to $100 in 2013.Then there will be a slowdown, and the price will increase 10 times every two years: Bitcoin will grow to $1,000 in 2015, to $10,000 in 2017, to $100,000 in 2019 and to $1,000,000 in 2021”.
There are still seven months until the end of 2019. Or is it just seven months? In any case, this cryptocurrency must demonstrate a fantastic growth in order to achieve the goal set by Magnotta.
As for the shorter-term forecast, a well-known analyst Peter Brandt has expressed an opinion that, driven by the FOMO (fear of missing out) syndrome of numerous traders, the price of Bitcoin will soon overcome the mark of $10,000. At the same time, Brandt stresses that a rather deep correction is not far off: the bulls will certainly want to take profits, and this sale will stop buyers trying to "jump into the leaving train."
Unlike Brandt, most analysts (70%) have set a more modest goal for the BTC/USD pair, to consolidate above $9,000. The remaining 30% believe that the pair will take a breather and will move in the side channel $7,500-8,500.
In conclusion of this forecast, it should be noted that the time of its writing is Friday, 24:00 GMT. And it is possible that it is the upcoming weekend, as it happened more than once, that the bulls will once again move Bitcoin quotes up.


Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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The brokerage company NordFX took part in the specialized Forex Traders' Fair-2019 which was held in the capital of the Philippines, Manila, at the end of May.

The Philippines with a population of over 105 million people provides tremendous opportunities for the development of the financial services market. This large-scale event alone, organized by FinExpo, gathered about two thousand guests and participants.


Visitors to the NordFX booth were able to exchange views with company representatives, as well as evaluate its new products, among which there are CFD trading tools, including oil contracts and major global stock indices, as well as investment funds that have absorbed the most reliable and promising stocks of world industry leaders. The Fair's participants were especially attracted by the availability and transparency of these funds, thanks to which the global stock market became accessible even to novice investors with small financial resources.

In addition to currency trading with low spreads and leverage up to 1:1000, NordFX services that have already gained popularity, such as PAMM and RAMM trust management platforms, as well as the possibility of margin trading in cryptocurrencies and cryptocurrency indexes on MetaTrader-4 and MetaTrader-5, were highly appreciated.

Due to high commissions and constantly improving conditions, the NordFX two-tier affiliate program aroused great interest as well.

The company expresses its gratitude to the organizers of the Fair for their work and, of course, to all the visitors to the company's booth who chose NordFX as their broker.

 
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Now NordFX clients enjoy another opportunity for portfolio investments in stocks of major global companies. The three investment funds, Pro-Industry Fund, Pro-Tech Fund and Pro-Expert Fund, include stocks with highest reliability and best prospects for growth.


The unique advantage of these funds is the low entrance threshold, which allows investors who have even small amounts to enjoy all the benefits of professional asset management.

Absolute transparency and freedom of funds disposal give the investor full control over what is going on. The client may deposit and withdraw funds at any time at his request, and the participation of managers allows you to receive the maximum possible profit from this investment. 

Pro-Industry Fund
- Investment amount from $1000
- Expected yield up to 27% per year
- Investment period: from 6 months to 1 year 

This fund includes shares of such world industrial giants as Motorola, Nike, Ferrari, Boeing, Coca-Cola, HP INC, McDonald's, etc.

Pro-Tech Fund
- Investment amount from $3000
- Expected yield up to 40.9% per year
- Investment period: from 3 months to 1 year

This fund includes shares of high-tech leaders with best performance in the industry. These are companies such as Apple, Microsoft, Intel, Alibaba, Adobe Systems, Nvidia, etc.

Pro-Expert Fund
- Investment amount from $5000
- Expected yield up to 57% per year
- Investment period: from 3 months to 1 year
- Shares of major representatives of various industries, with greatest reliability and potential for growth are collected in this fund. These are shares of Amazon, Netflix, MasterCard, Visa, Google, Facebook, PayPal, etc.

In addition to investing in the funds mentioned above, at the request of the client, NordFX specialists can make an individual portfolio for the client or purchase shares of individual listed companies.

More information about the investment offers of NordFX can be found at https://nordfx.com/funds/ or by contacting the company's Support Service.

 
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First, a review of last week’s events:
 
- EUR/USD. Complaints and sometimes even moans have been heard everywhere in the last months about the low volatility of this pair. The same is true about last week, until the second half of Thursday, the maximum range of its fluctuations did not exceed 45 points. The pair spent most of the time napping, sleepily crawling along the narrow corridor of 25 points. However, the events of the week, from the aggravation of the US-China trade war and the upcoming elections to the European Parliament to the statements by the Fed leadership and poor data on business activity in Germany and the Eurozone, played into the hands of the dollar. As a result, the pair, as most experts had suggested (75%), fell to the two-year lows, stopping at $1.1105 per euro.
But it is not only the economy of Europe, but also that of the USA which is experiencing problems. The unexpectedly weak preliminary business activity index Markit (50.9 instead of the expected 53.0) and the weak statistics on the real estate market led to a collapse in the yield of US government bonds and a sharp reversal of the EUR/USD pair to the north.
The euro's recovery was also facilitated by the closure of short positions at the lows reached before the three-day weekend in the USA and the UK. Apparently, the European currency and the statement of the British Prime Minister Theresa May about her resignation added to this. As a result, the euro won back 100 points, and the pair finished the week at 1.1205;
 
- GBP/USD. So, Mrs. May is leaving. Her version of the Brexit agreement will not be voted once again in Parliament. And the country is in for the next reshuffle in the leadership of the Conservative Party. According to many analysts, the head of the government can now be someone from the supporters of a hard exit from the EU, like the former mayor of London and Foreign Minister Boris Johnson. How will the market react? Most likely the reaction will be negative. But this news has not so far greatly affected investor sentiment: following the euro, taking advantage of weak US macroeconomic statistics, supported by the elimination of short positions, the pair pushed off from the two-year low in the 1.2600 zone and went up, putting the final point in this session at 1.2710;
 
- USD/JPY. The Japanese yen could not resist the dollar in the first half of the week either. Recall that 50% of analysts had expected the pair to rise to the height of 111.00, and one third of them has called the highest resistance 110.00 The truth, as often happens, was somewhere in the middle, and the pair fixed the week high at 110.65. After that, investors started to doubt: thanks to the harsh statements of Chinese leader Xi Jinping about the “new Great March” and “independence”, they began to realize that the yen could be a more reliable haven than the dollar. The yield on US government bonds went down, while Wall Street analysts started to talk about a high probability of deterioration in the financial results of American companies in the second half of the year and that the US economy could now be under attack due to rising prices and lower consumer demand. As a result, the pair turned around and, returning to the values of a week ago, completed the five-day week at 109.30;
 
- Cryptocurrencies. The crypto market capitalization schedule almost repeats what happens to the reference coin. Bitcoin dropped from $8,335 to $7,000 - capitalization fell from $255.8 billion to $229.2 billion. Bitcoin adjusted to $8.265, and capitalization rose to $255.5 billion. Quite often, this graph can be successfully used as a leading indicator.
It should be recalled that only 25% of experts predicted a trend reversal last week. The overwhelming majority voted for its continuation, finding that the decline in the BTC/USD pair to the level of $7,000 is just a temporary correction. In their opinion, it had to return to the $8,000 zone, after which it should move for some time in the side channel, then approaching the resistance level of 8,500, where its growth was stopped last July, then moving away from it. That's exactly what happened.

 
As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:
 
- EUR/USD. Both graphical and technical analysis point to continued growth of the pair on the H4 timeframe. But at the same time, 25% of oscillators are already in the overbought zone. At D1, the situation is different: one third of the indicators are colored red, one third are green and another third are gray, neutral. But the graphical analysis insists on further strengthening of the dollar and the continuation of the downward trend.
In fact, the situation in the global economy is quite complicated. There are more obscure prospects for Brexit, the lack of clarity with the results of the elections to the European Parliament on May 26, and multi-pass maneuvers in the US-China trade war here. The forecasts regarding the Fed's monetary policy also vary. So far, the chances of its mitigation for this year have grown from 68% to 78%. If this forecast comes true, the interest rate on the US dollar can be reduced by 0.25% in less than four months. But at the same time, the ECB, recognizing the weakness of the European economy, speaks of its readiness to take supporting measures in the minutes of the last meeting.
So far, 60% of analysts side with the bulls, believing that the powerful rebound of the pair from support in the 1.1110 zone has shown the bears' fatigue and their inability to continue the struggle.
The support levels are 1.1150 and 1.1110. The resistance levels are 1.1225 and 1.1263. The next target is 1.1325;

- GBP/USD. At the time of writing this forecast, it is not yet known which of the British parties will show which result in the elections to the European Parliament. Who will get the advantage, Brexit supporters or its opponents? Who will be the head of the UK government? Theresa May' departure may in the short term strengthen the pound, but in no way will it eliminate the long-term risks. That is why 65% of experts, supported by 90% of oscillators and trend indicators on D1, have voted for the pair to fall further. The nearest support is at 1.2660 and 1.2600, followed by the 2018 lows, 1.2475 and 1.2405.
35% of analysts rely on the growth of the pair. The immediate goals are 1.2825 and 1.3000, then 1.3125 and 1.3200.
A compromise forecast is given by graphical analysis on D 1. First, supported by 1.2600, a rise to the height of 1.2825, and then the collapse and the bottom in the zone 1.2475;
 
- USD/JPY. 100% of the trend indicators and 85% of the oscillators on H4 and D 1 are colored red. 70% of experts have also voted for the further fall of the pair and the strengthening of the yen as a reserve currency. At the same time, 15% of oscillators give signals about the pair being oversold. As for the graphical analysis, it draws first a fall to the horizon 108.50, and then a trend reversal and a growth to the height of 110.65. It should be borne in mind that one or two unpredictable tweets of US President Trump regarding the prospects for relations with China are enough to deploy the pair and accelerate it to either side.
The support levels are 109.00, 108.50 and 107.75, the resistance levels are 110.25, 110.65, 111.00 and 111.65;
 
- Cryptocurrencies. The European Central Bank has released a report stating that, although cryptocurrencies do not have a serious impact on the real economy now, in the future it is possible that they can replace the euro. But this is for the future. As for the present, analysts at JPMorgan Chase believe that the recent rise in the price of Bitcoin has brought it beyond what they call the inherent value of cryptocurrency. And that this could be a harbinger of another long recession.
However, if we sum up the opinions of their colleagues, only 15% of experts now support the scenario with a fall. 45% believe that the pair will move to the side channel of $7,500-8,400, and 40% are optimistic about the upward direction, indicating the April-May 2018 high as their closest target. at the height of $9,550. Note that in the transition to the medium-term forecast, the number of such optimists increases to 70%.


Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin

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First, a review of last week’s events:
 
- EUR/USD. The upcoming elections to the European Parliament, as well as multi-episode confusion with Brexit continue to put pressure on the European currency. Even the escalation of tensions in the US-China trade war does not help the euro: despite the fighting mood of the PRC leadership, the markets are betting on the US victory. And the failure of China will automatically exacerbate the problems of the closely related Eurozone.
Recall that, giving a monthly forecast, 70% of experts have expressed an opinion that the pair will continue to move along the medium-term downward channel and will again test the low of the end of April 1.1110. The past week was a confirmation that this forecast was correct: the pair lost about 80 points in five days and finished not far from the set goal, at around 1.1155;
 
- GBP/USD. Nothing new has happened here, and the movements of this pair still depend on just one short word, Brexit. Last week, we expressed the opinion that Prime Minister May would not be able to solve this problem at all. And now the media is full of headlines about her inevitable resignation. The impossibility (or inability) of the government to negotiate with the opposition brings the pound down. As a result, the pair easily broke through the April lows and, starting the week from 1.3000, completed it at 1.2715, losing 285 points;
 
- USD/JPY. The result of the last week for this pair is almost zero, the difference in quotes between midnight on Friday, May 10 and midnight on May 17 did not exceed 10 points, and the pair ended the week at 110.00; 
 
- Cryptocurrencies. Few people had expected this: in six days, Bitcoin quotes soared by 30%, reaching $8,335 on Thursday May 16 and exceeding the most optimistic forecast of experts by almost $1,000. The increase since the beginning of the year has made 120%, which, according to Tom Lee, co-founder of Fundstrat Global Advisors, means the arrival of the next season after the crypto winter, "crypto spring".
The reason for such a “spring” mood was the closure of short positions by major players and the opening of long ones at the level of $5,500-6,000, after which numerous small investors joined them. Some experts also believe that a sharp aggravation in the trade war between the United States and China played a role, after which Chinese investors decided to protect their capital by investing in Bitcoin.
However, the main cryptocurrency has failed to firmly fix at the heights taken. Part of the players began to fix profits, and by Friday evening, May 17, the BTC/USD pair slipped to the level of $7,000, losing more than half of the gains won from the bears and leaving those who had opened long positions above this zone, counting possible losses.
As for the main altcoins, as usual, they followed their “elder brother”, repeating its rise and its fall. As a result, Litecoin (LTC/USD) increased by 11% over the past week, Ripple (XRP/USD) by 25%, and Ethereum (ETH/USD), showing the best result, by 30%.

 
As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:
 
- EUR/USD. The greatest interest this week is focused on the American Fed. The head of this organization, Jerome Powell, will speak at the annual conference on financial markets on Tuesday, May 21, with a report on the risks of the US financial system. And the next day, the minutes of the Fed's Open Market Committee meeting of May 1 will be released. Investors are looking forward to what will be said in the report and in the protocol on the future monetary policy of the Fed, as well as what forecasts will be made there on the US economy.
At the moment, the situation looks quite optimistic, and 75% of experts, supported by the overwhelming majority of oscillators and 100% of trend indicators on H4 and D1, expect the US currency to strengthen further. In their opinion, the pair will definitely try to break through support in the zone of the April lows and will drop below the level of 1.1100.
At the same time, 15% of oscillators warn of the pair being oversold. A correction to the north is also expected by 25% of analysts and graphical analysis on D 1, which draws the rise of the pair to the resistance of 1.1265, and possibly even higher, to a height of 1.1335. However, as already mentioned, the events listed above on May 21 and 22 may have a strong influence on the behavior of the pair;

- GBP/USD. It seems that the market does not know what other surprises can be expected in the next Brexit episodes. When will the resignation of May take place and which of the British parties will win the elections to the European Parliament? What will the next, fourth in a row, vote of the bill on the withdrawal of Great Britain from the EU bring? There are more questions than answers, and in such a situation, the majority (60%) of the experts simply shrug. The rest of the experts are equally divided, giving 20% of votes to the bulls and the same to the bears.
As for the readings of the indicators, they are exactly the same as for EUR/USD. Similarly, 15% of oscillators are in the oversold zone, and graphical analysis on D1 insists on upward corrections. The support levels are 1.2665, 1.2614, 1.2475 and 1.2400. The resistance levels are 1.2865, 1.3000 and 1.3165.
It should be noted that in the transition to the forecast for the coming months, the number of supporters of bulls, waiting for the rise of the pair above 1.3200, increases to 65%. The increase of the consumer price index (CPI), which will be published on Wednesday May 22, and is projected to grow from 1.9% to 2.1%, may help the pound sterling this week;
 
- USD/JPY. Data on Japan's GDP growth will be released on Monday, May 20, and analysts expect it to be zero. Such a result could be a bad signal for the yen, and it will continue its retreat against the dollar. 50% of analysts expect the pair to rise to the height of 111.00. A third of experts believe that the pair will move in the range of 109.00-110.00. As for the remaining 20%, in their opinion, the Japanese currency will strengthen to the values around 108 yen per $1.
At the same time, almost all experts agree that the main trends for this pair will be determined not in Tokyo, but in the USA, and depend on the Fed's forecasts on Tuesday and Wednesday, as well as the course of battles on the fields of the US-China trade war.
 
- Cryptocurrencies. Despite the bad news last Friday, crypto bulls along with crypto hamsters, who obtained their bitcoins back in the autumn of 2017, hope that the fall of the BTC/USD pair to the $7,000 mark is just a correction, and Bitcoin will soon continue to grow. About 50% of experts agree with them. The target for the coming months is the height of $10,000. And in the opinion of the Canaccord Genuity analysts, the BTC rate will reach $20,000 over two years. “We have found a coincidence between the periods of 2011-2015 and 2015-2019 and have realized that the first cryptocurrency operates within the framework of four-year cycles. This is confirmed by the fact that the decrease in the miner’s reward occurs every four years,” their statement says.
A quarter of experts suggest that the pair will find it difficult to consolidate above the resistance level of $8,500 (it was there that its growth stopped last July) and for some time it will move closer to this horizon, then moving away from it.
And finally, the remaining 25% of analysts predict Bitcoin to decline to support $6,000, based on which the pair moved from February to November 2018.


Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin

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