Topic: [Not] Good price at CEX.io - page 10. (Read 49095 times)

I'm in the habit of building websites (and web apps) and then... losing interest in them. I'm far too lazy to actually implement something like this and then -- more importantly -- maintain it, even though it is very much within my technical skill set. Still, I have neither the stomach for deception (even for a guaranteed profit) nor the desire to spend my copious free time coding instead of drinking bourbon.

But by all means, more power to whoever wants to run with this idea. I'm certain that it would be profitable. The math is definitively on my side.

In my proposed "virtual mining" setup and GHs exchange, some people undoubtedly would earn a profit, between the "mining rewards" and any profit realized by buying low / selling high. But as I (and many others) have pointed out repeatedly, for every person that wins at that game, someone else loses. So that part of the payouts are a wash and thus inconsequential to the exchange operator's profit margin. The only BTC that comes out of the exchange operator's IPO nest egg are the "mining rewards". As long as the exchange operator sets the IPO price at slightly more than twice the first month's "mining rewards" per GHs (at the current and expected difficulty rate) then the total cumulative "mining rewards" will never actually reach 100% of the initial investment.*


Frankly, I don't think it matters. I've heard over and over in this very thread that people are playing day trader for GHs. It doesn't seem (to me) like the people flocking to cex.io really give a rat's ass whether their mining rewards are actually tied to a particular block or not. And if it was really that big of a deal -- if people really won't buy into the concept without at least the strong appearance that they're actually "mining" -- then simply pick out the blocks from some dark mining operation in China or Ukraine and tell everyone that those are the blocks they helped "mine".

Better yet, start a mining pool on the side -- make it 0% fee to attract lots of actual selfish profit-hungry greed-bags miners -- and then piggyback off the blocks that they find. Problem solved.


Oh, the exchange operator should definitely fluctuate the price a bit to give people the illusion of highs and lows, and maybe even drift generally downwards with Bitcoin difficulty. Still, I have a strong feeling that you're wrong about whether people would notice manipulation or not, or whether they would even care. For support, I present as evidence Exhibit A, Exhibit B, and Exhibit C.

*Of course, if the Bitcoin difficulty ever went down, the exchange operator would be screwed. In all correspondence, be sure to use an implausible name like "Jeffrey Smith" or "Satoshi Nakamoto" so that nobody can find you if or when you have to suddenly disappear.

One of two things will happen...


Either GHS will skyrocket..............



Or it will plummet.............





Just invest in increments.... it will mitigate loss but still gain if it goes up.

You are back to the same old mistake of claiming that nobody will get a return on their original investment. You can sell your shares back and reclaim some/most/all of your investment depending on what sale price you accept. Some people DO get a good return, plus the revenue from mining.
If you were just virtual, there would be no evidence in the block chain, and your empire would crumble before your eyes faster than the idea to create it.
Also you cannot keep the GH/s artificially inflated without upsetting a lot of people, and ultimately ending your business. People will only pay what they believe it is worth.

Just a few differences for you

Yup. In fact, here's an interesting idea for someone more motivated than I am:

Virtual Mining

Create a "virtual" GHs exchange. Sell the initial shares of GHs (an IPO, if you will) at a price comparable to cex.io. Now, pay "mining rewards" to all the people who bought shares in proportion to their virtual GHs holdings, in accordance with the current Bitcoin difficulty level. Let the customers buy and sell virtual GHs shares to their hearts content, but by all means continue to pay out "mining rewards" to the people who are hodling virtual GHs.

You now have something that is completely indistinguishable from cex.io, and you need risk nothing on hardware, a data center, or even pay for electricity. You just need an AWS instance running a simple web app. Assuming you set the price of the initial shares properly, you're guaranteed (as the owner of the exchange) a tidy profit -- the virtual GHs shares will never ROI for the IPO price, and any trading after that is inconsequential to your profits. And the best part is that you have an infinite supply of GHs to sell to all the math-challenged "miners" day traders that will apparently flock to anyone selling the chance to get their feet wet speculate on the price of GHs! Just be sure to keep the price per GHs artificially controlled (so as to give them all peace of mind that they can always sell to the greater fool), and you can laugh all the way to the bank.

(I defy anyone to tell me why this would actually be different than what cex.io is currently doing).

Funny, I had the opposite experience in December. I never hold anything at CEX anymore while I am sleeping. The market is simply to unpredictable. It is also not so much mining, than GHS speculating IMHO

Price moves + upcoming features like pointing the Ghs to any pool = my continued interest. SHA altcoins are going to bump!

Plus in the sense of BTC/USD value, if I'd have held on and gone down with the ship two years ago instead of cashing out I'd be some small kind of rich on the BTC right now, so hanging on to convictions (like aha cloud mining incrementally beats awaiting potential vapourware preorders) is how I'm going to do things now.

HODLING.

Attention fellow cex.io GHS investors.
Derrek from CEX support announced via Chat that they will bring the Cloud Mining to 400THS, by adding 5 THS a day.
Just a heads up on some heavy price moves, like december.

J.

Zero trade fees at cexio plus the mining factor beats bigger potential losses on the trades+fees elsewhere, and the horizontal business scaling they're having to do to avoid 51% bodes well, so I'm staying there for my flippin'.

Plus BTC-e 'lost' my coins once already two years ago.

But what do you do if CEX.IO goes belly up?  Not saying it will happen, but 50BTC was as big as they currently are and they effectively ran off with people's money with no real consequences as of yet.  If the price drops to the true market price no realistic amount of trading will be able to undo your losses.  At least if you're flipping on an exchange (which can also run of with your money theoretically) you're either holding BTC or fiat.  Here you would be holding GH/s which are guaranteed to be 30% less every 11 days (for the next 6 months anyways).

You seem to enjoy trading so I will not attempt to discourage you.

For an average person trying to enter the bitcoin community you would be better off acquiring coins on localbitcoins or an exchange - at least from an investment point of view since once you acquire them there's no risk other than security threats.  If you're looking to make profits by flipping, BTCe or any of the other exchanges are less of a risky proposition (since they're already registered with government agencies).

I don't lose money. I buy Ghs when the price is low, Sell it when it's high, and keep doing that, all the while getting mining rewards at any time I hold Ghs. I encourage a couple of friends who are my referrals to do the same, too.

EQUALS PROFIT

Most of these threads that go "why do ppl use cex" forget that the Ghs you mine with can be sold any time, and if you sell them for more BTC than you bought them, then you've come out in profit and any mining you've done at cex with it has technically been for free.

For example: here's my cex graph. it goes up from the start as i buy more Ghs, then on the 1st I started withdrawing all my mining rewards and trading only the Ghs i have to increase them. After a not-so-profitable day to hold Ghs (that big dip) it's been ups and downs, but overall upwards.



just buying Ghs at cex, sitting on them and only considering your mining rewards as profit from it is only half the game.
The Ghs themselves can be profitable too now the price has ups and downs.

Yes, if you are able to buy GH/s at price X, mine for a few days, and sell at price X then you keep the revenue from that GH/s as profit.  The problem lies in the fact that the $ of each GH/s should be going down as equipment becomes more powerful per $, and certainly the BTC/GH should be going down as each GH you own is making less and less each difficulty.

Irrespective of whether the people warning others are doing it for selfish (to keep difficulty down) or altruistic (to keep new users from wasting money) reasons, the fact remains cloud mining in it's current state is a losing proposition.  Sure you can make money, but you will be in the minority.  It's not impossible, it's just unlikely.

As the price/GH deviates farther from the true earnings potential, the likelihood of coming out a looser is even higher.  If you like gambling there's option that provide a better risk/reward ratio.  If you think CEX.IO is the coolest thing since sliced bread, well nobody should be stealing your happiness.

I guess it depends on how you invest your BTC in Cex. Definitely I won't buy any hardwares from them. The price of hardware is 10 times higher than others, for example, KNC, 3THs at 12 BTC or so. Buying hardware is stupid and won't get back any ROI.

But, what if you buy some GHs and use it to mine; after mining a while, you exchanges your GHs into BTC at the same rate of buying it. You get some profits, right? To be simple, you win if you buy GHs low and sell it high or at the same rate. Risk lies in all the investments. All depend on you.

I'm with you on this one, I recently got in to mining, and have found that cex.io is the best option for us miners in the UK joining now. The lack of equipment availability at a reasonable price is just unbelievable.

The investment I have made in to gigs on cex.io is seeing a profit for me too, on a daily basis, I have not yet lost on my initial outlay and intend to sell as soon as that starts to happen. In fact today, I can see a drop in hashing power which has seen an increase in my individual block payouts.

I have had this same argument with odovolo or whatever their name is, but no one seems to understand that the value of the gigs traded on cex.io go up and down because the gig is only worth what someone is willing to pay for it. Even if the overall mining equipment price rises or falls, this has no baring on what happens on the cex.io trading platform.

~Foyz

Looks like you lost your investment with them, explains why you are certain nobody can make a profit.

Lets see if your predictions come true, but one thing you can be sure of, if the cost per GH/s drops, all hardware profit drops too. All miners make less. This will certainly happen when the next gen of hardware appears.

Just for a laugh, try running a hardware comparison through that prediction, what do you get?
If the difficulty really keeps going at 80% or more per month, then BTC will cease to be profitable later this year. No matter how big your rig. From July it will not be profitable to keep ANY hardware running, if the difficulty keeps going the way it is.

Things will change, they have to.

Let's come back to your numbers at the times you specified. We will have solid data and count our chickens then. Thank you.

Just wait a month. Just wait...
"A fool and his money is soon parted"

This is about how "profitable" you will come out : http://thegenesisblock.com/mining/a/e5c4f70041
If you hope your total GHs resale price makes up for the "Cumulative Return" (=minimum required to break even on hardware), that would leave you with a 0 BTC sum investment on the rented hardware with only your permanently shrinking mined output available to you. Which (if everything reinvested) can't even make up for pool/network speed increase, let alone diff jumps - thus this will keep falling as well.

Put in another way :
Think you'll be able to sell for 0.038BTC/GHs at end of Jan 2014 ? That is actually possible, if you're lucky.
Think you'll be able to sell for 0.034BTC/GHs at end of Feb 2014 ? That is hardly possible, even if you're lucky.
Think you'll be able to sell for 0.031BTC/GHs at end of Mar 2014 ? That is near impossible.
Think you'll be able to sell for 0.030BTC/GHs at end of Apr 2014 ? haha, good one...
Think you'll be able to sell for 0.029BTC/GHs at end of May 2014 ? *omg* have you seen a doctor lately?...

Within short timeframes, this seems to work (thanks to permanent market manipulation at cex.io), but it won't last long. When cex GHs price breaks downward, it breaks fast & furious like last time. And falling it will, guaranteed, taking your entire investment with it - step by step.

Anyone's cex.io bots making money?

Where do you get your (mis)information? You obviously have just trolled the forums and now assume you know everything.
Renting hardware does not have such a bad ROI. It is rented, not purchased.
For instance I purchased some GH/s 2 weeks ago, it cost 0.042 BTC per share. now worth 0.046 BTC per share...now most people would call this a profit of 0.004 BTC per share... in just 2 weeks, plus I profited from the mining revenue generated by the shares.

So, to put simply: profit + profit = more profit. Not the guaranteed loss that too many fools seem to think.
Yes, the value of GH/s will drop as difficulty goes up. Consider it the cost of renting the equipment, which would not be free, but a lot less in the short term when compared to purchasing the same equipment.

However, it seems that your view is that renting is not viable, purchasing hardware is also not viable, the only way to make money with BTC is hoard it and gamble on the price rising....then claim all other ways are certain to make a loss.

What I can tell you for certain is I have more BTC now than I did 2 weeks ago, and the BTC price is about the same. So it sure looks like a profit to me.