What do you think, where the NXT Price can go in the next 12 - 24 month?
1 Dollar or even more?
Ignoring speculative crazy prices, NXT price will be based on its expected yield. With current limited functionality, the annual yield is estimated to be around 0.5%, not really much to get excited about. However, with a decentralized creation of independent groups, each working to generate transaction fees, we are hopeful for a significant increase in yield.
Since NXT yield is in NXT, there is no reference to fiat or even BTC that the positive yields can be mapped to. The closest model that can be used is growth stocks PE ratios, but still we have the problem of mapping to fiat. Ultimately the market will do this mapping, but assuming that we can count on a stable floor value that is around 50% of the alltime high (one week average, not spot price), then the value of NXT in fiat would be:
(50% of alltime high in fiat) * (lifetime sum of expected forging revenues)
Let us use 4 cents as the first value, as we seem to be stabilized at .00005 BTC for now.
At average 5% annual yield, compounded 10 years -> 68% increase, 20 years -> 165% increase
At average 10% annual yield, compounded 10 years -> 159% increase, 20 years -> 572% increase
At average 15% annual yield, compounded 10 years -> 4 times increase, 20 years -> 16 times increase
Once NXT starts yielding double digit percentages, the valuation increases will become quite significant. Compounding these yields year after year leads to some crazy big lifetime forging revenues. As each new features adds new ways for NXT to generate transaction fees, as the years go by, not only are the NXT compounding, the rate at which they grow also increases. The gains NXT makes in growing the transaction fees will be precisely measurable.
The big wildcard is the longevity the market will assume NXT will have. I am using 10 years and 20 years, but the market will use different durations.
What I am talking about is the fundamental value of NXT, not some speculative here today gone tomorrow bubble price. If the fundamental value of NXT is 50 cents, who knows what sort of price the speculators will bid it up to.
Anyway, I am glad your question is framed in the 1 to 2 year timeframe. I recommend NXT at current prices and just put it away for a while. Not too much, you need to be able to sleep at night regardless of what the crazy market price is doing.
James