Topic: Odds, units advantage | Sportsbook | +36315 units - page 37. (Read 40042 times)

Didn't need the hedge after all, Arsenal blew Albion away and Real made relatively short work of Celta, kept Aspas out of contention for goals and they were good. Relief for our flagging bankroll;)

Mainz seem destined to be relegated, but that means great odds for them against the Champions. Can we count on post-holiday blues for Lewie and co?

100 units at Fairlay on Mainz 05 to WIN vs Bayern Munich @25.84. Other odds: 20.
Massive 584 odds advantage!

Watched the match and United weren't playing like shit, Villa should still have drawn though. Softest penalty as any you'll see in the English Prem, and then all those chances in the end as they laid siege to United. Sigh.

Tempted to go for a Leeds upset today but 4/1 feels a bit too low value, let's do a Sevilla+Wolves one first @5.91. Other oddS: 5.85

Odds advantage: 6

Add this insured boosted parlay: Spurs, Villareal, Palace, Real and Arsenal @16.95. Other odds: 15.88
Bet ID: 5ff05839888f8b7e2bda3961
Odds advantage: 108

And to hedge the Real bet, Celta Vigo @5.84. Other odds: 5.40
Bet ID: 5ff08ab660a900e106548fd5
Odds advantage: 44

Total odds advantage: 158

Nice that Osasuna didn't win actually, I'd have felt shitty if they did cause Sociedad couldn't find the second goal for all the tried they had. Some days, I wonder why I need to bet when nothing looks good.

But today, we have a nice boosted promo from Sportsbet, and my money always goes here!
Georgia, Northwestern, Cremson, Kentucky All to Win @5.30. Other odds: 4.80.

And for our regular upset, Villa WIN @4.63. Other odds: 4.30

Units advantage: 83

Agreed, BTTS very good pickings but I'm not trying for over 1.5 goals instead, for about 1.8x odds, less value, but in case one side is having an off day. I've actually been having good bets in Asian markets too (Japan and AFC) but I tend to just do ML or max 2 legs parlays there.

Overall, actually, my Europe picks minus tournaments have been taking a battering over the past few months. Picks from this thread are in green, but that's from early season success... I think I've already made a loss in one or two books, so I'm not reupping there until the new season starts again haha.

Definitely helps that books gave good promos this Covid year. Freebets and promos aside though, I'm still a little bit on the positive side overall so I'm very happy if things continue as is. My aim always is to end seasons with profit and even use the profit to set aside new season bankroll so I continue to enjoy... the Bitcoin price rally is also hugely motivating!

Also got a number of longshot picks still alive (Real Madrid to win UCL, Liverpool to do the same, for example). Sociedad is still about 10/1 on a good day to win Europa.

Happy New Year to you Trofo, always appreciate the follows and comments! Green is a nice colour;)


Trofo finds good BTTS odds recently. Form helps me decide value, and in this current pick 1.8 for over 1.5 goals is good enough for me. I generally never add a pick that's below 1.5x, and only is it helps me boost a pick I'm confident off... 1.35x is probably the max lowest I go for a "sure thing" but both Liverpool and Barca have shown me the folly of those;)

Very slim pickings today but I have a high stake bet on Bilbao vs. Sociedad both to score @2.21 without any boosts. If that is not a value odds than I don't know what is. I was expecting something in range 1.8-1.9 but maybe bookies know something we don't.

Kawasaki is playing super football this year and no team managed to find answers how to keep them from scoring a few goals. That will be my next bet in case first one is success. If it isn't I am stopping for this year. Another year finished in the green which I consider a big success after I was almost 40k$ in the red during summer. Esports helped me a lot towards pulling the year back in the green and I expect to bet more on them in the next year as well.

All the best in New Year @buwa and many green tickets 

I wonder what the most lucrative market is to bet on in relation to the odds you can get. It usually does well over 1.5 goals, but the problem is that the odds are actually just too low.
This often fluctuates around 1.35
yesterday Atletico won with 1-0, a goal was scored very early but they failed to make another one.

Swansea, I should have gone for Brentford and I might even have had a close to 20/1 with the Spurs game postponed. Oh well.

A bit thin today on New Year's eve, but here's a simple parlay:

100 units at Sportsbet on Kawasaki Frontale, Bilbao/Sociedad Over 1.5 goals, Osasuna @5.74.

Units advantage: 12

One hit, and everyone else got put down. My fortunes are going down the drain. Hit a few nice bets elsewhere but my picks for this thread not going great haha.

Simple boosted and insured parlay tonight on Atletico, Celta Vigo, Swansea, Rangers HT win, Spurs HT win @25.17. Other odds: 23.87
Bet ID: 5fec5f3600b5667fba57c538

Units advantage: 130

Blood on the streets everywhere I guess. Don't recall seeing so many draws in a stretch of games, thinking like I lost almost everything thanks to draws rather than shock losses.

Easy live Aussie game today Melbourne City parlayed with a Real Betis WIN @4.13. Other odds: 4.10

Units advantage: 3

Edit: 1 more game then, with super boosts!
Burnley, Arsenal @5.81. Bet ID: 5feb013044aa2a718cb6ae62 Units advantage: 41

Edit: 1 more haha. Barca, Wolves @8.00. Bet ID: 5feb0109c8df48087adef2eb. Units advantage: 8

Total units advantage: 49

^ Yeah, a draw turned out to be the fair result for both WH and LV but still think both could have won it if not for some sloppy play at the back, and of course, you have to put chances to bed. Salah's not as sharp as early season for sure, but really happy to see Mane and Firmino get back into it. Imagine when all three are roaring...

Call me stupid for taking another boosted promo today:
100 units at Sportsbet on Chelsea, City, Leicester to WIN @5.50. Other odds: 4.90
Bet ID: 5fe99e4cb159f554b9ed67e3
Odds advantage: 60

^No luck on hammers but to be fair they did not deserve to win. If you ask me Brighton is the side that should have much more points than what they have at the moment. They are playing good but always come short when the final whistle is blown.

Watching LFC now and I must say that Salah is not looking very sharp. Mane is much more dangerous so far but hopefully there will be a penalty for Salah or he will get in the game more in the second half.

Cool hit on Arsenal, Saka needs to be played more and need to ditch the deadwood, but Chelsea man, this sets them up for a nice win over City coming up I hope?

Anyway will do calculations later but today I am putting money down on Liverpool 4/1. Full details later but
- Salah to score
- over 2.5 goals
- Liverpool to win both halves
- Over 5.5 corners Pool
- Over 19.5 booking points
- Over 8 corners

OK edited the above now. @4.20. Bet ID: 5fe70957c8df483919de31af. Other odds: 4.00
Odds advantage: 20

should be a peach, no?And we have a parlay waiting for Hammers to mop up. Come on Moyes =D... Sorry Lallana... Live score now is 2-2 with Creswell jus equalising come on!

NBA not my cup of tea at all, crazy bets and didn't make any of it. Putting a few bets down today for the crazy weekend, but allow me first to post the traditional Newcastle upset over Manchester City @20.80. Other odds: 19.80.

Bet ID: 5fe709a860a9003e0c52f16c

Odds advantage: 100

Add in a Villa, West Ham simple parlay @4.09. Other odds: 3.98. Bet ID: 5fe706ccc8df48071bde313e
Odds advantage: 11

Add in Arsenal to somehow win @5.14. Other odds: 4.80. Bet ID: 5fe76a7100b566ae6f56dc38
Odds advantage: 34

Serves me right. Lost everything yesterday, and thanks to bloody Atalanta, who led slip a 2-goal lead, I at least got back one bet as insurance returns. Bloody hell, the margins! What a hit the bankroll's taken in the past weeks just losing everything haha.

NBA promo on Sportsbet takes my money today: Miami Heat, Milwaukee Bucks, Boston Celtics & Los Angeles Lakers All to Win @5.25. Other odds: 5.10
Odds advantage: 15

So yup, Villareal did eff me up last night, but we still have 2 legs to win tonight to return the bet from insurance, hey can't keep winning them all, right? Ha.

Mixing it up tonight:

100 units at Sportsbet on Everton, Lyon, PSG @6.16. Other odds: 5.89
Odds advantage: 27

And a special for SB on over 0.5 goals by HT in all Serie A games. Because it's been happening pretty frequently anyway, right?
100 units at Sportsbet @16.50. Other odds: 15.90
Odds advantage: 60

Another 5-leg insured special then: Inter, Stade Rennais, Betis, Atalanta, Milan @15.65. Other odds: 14.75
Bet ID: 5fe3412a7f9acd71566b7ab8
Odds advantage: 90

And Napoli, Bremen, Stuttgart live now please @5.74. No other odds.

5 bets and it's only Wednesday!

You're probably right. I'm going to take the risk though, there has to be one blip where the close favourites ACTUALLY win, and I feel like I'm somewhat protected by the insurance (it's stupid but there you go, Sunday math and stats coming to fore).

Underdog MLs probably my best strategy in this period but even Arsenal are barely 5/1 to win the League Cup against City today. Go figure.

Did not check the games from tomorrow but no way Sevilla, Villareal and Atletico are all winning today. I like all of them as singles but one of them is bound to screw you. I am actually only on Atletico today and I found one market that looks like free money to me Atletico to not lose and under 3.5 goals @1.75. I am not touching Valencia games on my tickets and more. They just screwed me too many times.

Poor Moyes. It actually looked like we were going to get the upset if not for that offside goal, and to be fair even after Thiago's first goal, the Hammers came close on several occassions. It wasn't to be, and I'm actually pleased for Tammy Abraham too!

Big parlay, boosted and insured:
100 units at Sportsbet on Sevilla, Atletico, Villareal, Nice, Stade Rennais @32.00. Other odds: 30.30

Odds advantage: 170

What can I say? It wasn't for a lack of trying, but Bielsa will remember not to play all out attack against a team capable of hitting you back plenty. Then again, leaking 4 against Liverpool on opening day should have taught that lesson.

Another away upset for us today. 100 units at Sportsbet on West Ham to WIN vs Chelsea @6.28. Other odds: 5.90

Odds advantage: 38

There goes our Leeds dream. Just when you thought United were on the ropes at home, they hit back with 4 goals in the first half haha. Fernandes might yet get his hattrick too, see what happens when you put James and Mctominay back in the squad eh? Just hope Leeds put back 2 or 3 more goals even if they lose damn.