[OFFICIAL]Bitfinex.com first Bitcoin P2P lending platform for leverage trading - page 148.

Timetwister

legendary

Activity: 1199

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Quote from: komar on September 16, 2014, 07:03:05 PM

And some estimations for today:

Code:

Estimated "true" TH1 income for 90 days:
if difficulty will get +30% every adjust: 0.765032 BTC;
if difficulty will get +20% every adjust: 0.919727 BTC;
if difficulty will get +15% every adjust: 1.023131 BTC;
if difficulty will get +10% every adjust: 1.151170 BTC;
if difficulty will get + 5% every adjust: 1.312023 BTC;
if difficulty will get + 0% every adjust: 1.517354 BTC;
if difficulty will get - 5% every adjust: 1.784133 BTC;
if difficulty will get -10% every adjust: 2.137610 BTC;

Source code: https://github.com/apsheronets/divananalit/blob/master/sim.ml
You can also see past difficulty adjustments here.
TH1 is definitely overpiced.

Added: whoops, it just fell down to 1.11 BTC. Not overpriced anymore.

Added 2: screw it, the orderbook is empty.

It's underpriced then, unless you expect a very big jump in difficulty, when you take into account the interest from lending it.

unclescrooge

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Activity: 868

Merit: 1000

Quote from: DoubleSwapper on September 16, 2014, 05:36:54 PM

Quote from: Indamuck on September 16, 2014, 05:09:41 PM

Quote from: DoubleSwapper on September 16, 2014, 12:33:05 PM

I've encountered yet another bug in the BFX swap system regarding wrong durations. A swap in my "provided list" has just popped up showing 27 days when this was never issued by me and wasn't in the book just 5 hours ago while showing it has been taken nearly 2 days ago. I've written to the BFX support. No idea what is happening at the moment but they should better get their lending system cleaned up. There are quite a few bugs popping up at the moment.

I think there is a glitch as I've found the same. There is a 'swap provided' in my account for BTC at the FRR rate/30-days issued just a couple hours ago ... I never set at FRR and all my BTC was lent yesterday for only 4-5 days. I would never lend for 30 days. This is a serious glitch ... now my BTC is tied up for 30 days ?!?

Thanks for the confirmation. Write to BFX support to get that fixed as soon as possible. I've already notified them and they have also answered but haven't closed the swap yet. Something similar has happened before and they have cleared that up but it has taken a few hours.

Hello guys,

I replied to such a request by email although I am not sure which one it is.

We are working on it

Have a good day
Raphael

komar

full member

Activity: 224

Merit: 100

And some estimations for today:

Code:

Estimated "true" TH1 income for 90 days:
if difficulty will get +30% every adjust: 0.765032 BTC;
if difficulty will get +20% every adjust: 0.919727 BTC;
if difficulty will get +15% every adjust: 1.023131 BTC;
if difficulty will get +10% every adjust: 1.151170 BTC;
if difficulty will get + 5% every adjust: 1.312023 BTC;
if difficulty will get + 0% every adjust: 1.517354 BTC;
if difficulty will get - 5% every adjust: 1.784133 BTC;
if difficulty will get -10% every adjust: 2.137610 BTC;

Source code: https://github.com/apsheronets/divananalit/blob/master/sim.ml
You can also see past difficulty adjustments here.
TH1 is definitely overpiced.

Added: whoops, it just fell down to 1.11 BTC. Not overpriced anymore. :)
Added 2: screw it, the orderbook is empty.

komar

full member

Activity: 224

Merit: 100

A new ugly chart for TH1 swap:

(couldn't find this one on bxfdata.com)

fig9

newbie

Activity: 8

Merit: 0

Quote from: nrd525 on September 16, 2014, 06:00:29 PM

Are the swap fees linear? Or will they decline as the price of the TH1 asset declines?

Good point, they probably won't be quite linear, but they won't be on the same exponential scale. And if you offer a long swap duration you could get closer to a linear return.

nrd525

legendary

Activity: 1868

Merit: 1023

Are the swap fees linear? Or will they decline as the price of the TH1 asset declines?

fig9

newbie

Activity: 8

Merit: 0

Quote from: nrd525 on September 16, 2014, 05:41:08 PM

Quote from: fig9 on September 16, 2014, 05:11:53 PM

Quote from: nrd525 on September 16, 2014, 04:59:00 PM

What time is the TH1 dividend payment? And how much was the first one?

I got a dividend of 0.02BTC from each of my 4 shares (0.08BTC total) at around 11pm PST.

Adjusting for difficulty trends the shares are probably worth 1.5-1.7BTC over their lifespan.

I did some calculations, and they should be worth over 2BTC in dividends if you compound your shares by lending them as swaps at their current interest rate.
This all relies on trading picking up steam however.

I wrote my code to calculate total value based on simply lending your TH as a swap once for the duration. In reality, the dividend return would probably be even higher because you'd compound you swap interest into other swap loans over the course of the TH shares lifetime.

Here is the ruby code for my calculation if curious:
TH = 1
BTC = 0
SwapInterest = 0.0098
SwapReturn = TH * SwapInterest
Dividend = 0.02
Days = 90

for d in 1..Days
   if d % 30 == 0
# The assumption here is that 1 month of time decreases mining profitability per TH by 1/5. Modify if you believe otherwise.
   Dividend = Dividend * 0.8
   end

   BTC = BTC + TH * Dividend
   TH = TH + SwapReturn
end

BTC

Thanks for the info. Kind of strange that the dividend payment would work out to a round number!

I think the contract is worth 1.2 BTC (10% difficulty increase) - plus the swap value. The swap value is very puzzling. I tend to think it should fall to near zero (or 10% APR) under a free market. Not sure what is propping it up.

Total value, being based heavily on the swap interest value, decreases exponentially over time. So since total value decreases exponentially, people who sell short towards the beginning of the lifecycle of the TH share will be able to capture profit from selling after 1 or 2 months with an exponential decrease in the trading price. They pay 1 or 2 months of dividends in swap fees, which are linear. This means that if they enter and exit correctly they should come out on top, while also allowing the swap provider to gain compounding dividends. The possible losers in this ecosystem come from people who enter/exit based on speculation, in which case their gains/losses are largely luck based.

nrd525

legendary

Activity: 1868

Merit: 1023

Quote from: fig9 on September 16, 2014, 05:11:53 PM

Quote from: nrd525 on September 16, 2014, 04:59:00 PM

What time is the TH1 dividend payment? And how much was the first one?

I got a dividend of 0.02BTC from each of my 4 shares (0.08BTC total) at around 11pm PST.

Adjusting for difficulty trends the shares are probably worth 1.5-1.7BTC over their lifespan.

I did some calculations, and they should be worth over 2BTC in dividends if you compound your shares by lending them as swaps at their current interest rate.
This all relies on trading picking up steam however.

I wrote my code to calculate total value based on simply lending your TH as a swap once for the duration. In reality, the dividend return would probably be even higher because you'd compound you swap interest into other swap loans over the course of the TH shares lifetime.

Here is the ruby code for my calculation if curious:
TH = 1
BTC = 0
SwapInterest = 0.0098
SwapReturn = TH * SwapInterest
Dividend = 0.02
Days = 90

for d in 1..Days
   if d % 30 == 0
   # The assumption here is that 1 month of time decreases mining profitability per TH by 1/5. Modify if you believe otherwise.
   Dividend = Dividend * 0.8
   end

   BTC = BTC + TH * Dividend
   TH = TH + SwapReturn
end

BTC

Thanks for the info. Kind of strange that the dividend payment would work out to a round number!

I think the contract is worth 1.2 BTC (10% difficulty increase) - plus the swap value. The swap value is very puzzling. I tend to think it should fall to near zero (or 10% APR) under a free market. Not sure what is propping it up.

Wow the price just plummeted from 1.8 to 1.3.

DoubleSwapper

full member

Activity: 172

Merit: 100

Quote from: Indamuck on September 16, 2014, 05:09:41 PM

Quote from: DoubleSwapper on September 16, 2014, 12:33:05 PM

I've encountered yet another bug in the BFX swap system regarding wrong durations. A swap in my "provided list" has just popped up showing 27 days when this was never issued by me and wasn't in the book just 5 hours ago while showing it has been taken nearly 2 days ago. I've written to the BFX support. No idea what is happening at the moment but they should better get their lending system cleaned up. There are quite a few bugs popping up at the moment.

I think there is a glitch as I've found the same. There is a 'swap provided' in my account for BTC at the FRR rate/30-days issued just a couple hours ago ... I never set at FRR and all my BTC was lent yesterday for only 4-5 days. I would never lend for 30 days. This is a serious glitch ... now my BTC is tied up for 30 days ?!?

Thanks for the confirmation. Write to BFX support to get that fixed as soon as possible. I've already notified them and they have also answered but haven't closed the swap yet. Something similar has happened before and they have cleared that up but it has taken a few hours.

fig9

newbie

Activity: 8

Merit: 0

Quote from: nrd525 on September 16, 2014, 04:59:00 PM

What time is the TH1 dividend payment? And how much was the first one?

I got a dividend of 0.02BTC from each of my 4 shares (0.08BTC total) at around 11pm PST.

Adjusting for difficulty trends the shares are probably worth 1.5-1.7BTC over their lifespan.

I did some calculations, and they should be worth over 2BTC in dividends if you compound your shares by lending them as swaps at their current interest rate.
This all relies on trading picking up steam however.

I wrote my code to calculate total value based on simply lending your TH as a swap once for the duration. In reality, the dividend return would probably be even higher because you'd compound you swap interest into other swap loans over the course of the TH shares lifetime.

Here is the ruby code for my calculation if curious:
TH = 1
BTC = 0
SwapInterest = 0.0098
SwapReturn = TH * SwapInterest
Dividend = 0.02
Days = 90

for d in 1..Days
   if d % 30 == 0
# The assumption here is that 1 month of time decreases mining profitability per TH by 1/5. Modify if you believe otherwise.
   Dividend = Dividend * 0.8
   end

   BTC = BTC + TH * Dividend
   TH = TH + SwapReturn
end

BTC

Indamuck

hero member

Activity: 1120

Merit: 554

Quote from: DoubleSwapper on September 16, 2014, 12:33:05 PM

I've encountered yet another bug in the BFX swap system regarding wrong durations. A swap in my "provided list" has just popped up showing 27 days when this was never issued by me and wasn't in the book just 5 hours ago while showing it has been taken nearly 2 days ago. I've written to the BFX support. No idea what is happening at the moment but they should better get their lending system cleaned up. There are quite a few bugs popping up at the moment.

I think there is a glitch as I've found the same. There is a 'swap provided' in my account for BTC at the FRR rate/30-days issued just a couple hours ago ... I never set at FRR and all my BTC was lent yesterday for only 4-5 days. I would never lend for 30 days. This is a serious glitch ... now my BTC is tied up for 30 days ?!?

nrd525

legendary

Activity: 1868

Merit: 1023

What time is the TH1 dividend payment? And how much was the first one?

noggin-scratcher

full member

Activity: 136

Merit: 100

Quote from: oyvinds on September 15, 2014, 03:24:31 PM

I also have a hard time understanding why a short would have to pay dividends, if there is actual TH behind this then that dividend should come from the pool and the borrower only pays interest.

If you go short, you borrow someone's share(s) and sell them, in the hope of buying them back later for less, so the pool is paying the dividend for that share to whoever bought it from you. The swap recipient would be paying to replace the income the provider would have had from their share if it hadn't been sold, so that they're not left disadvantaged by the arrangement.

DebitMe

legendary

Activity: 2800

Merit: 1012

Get Paid Crypto To Walk or Drive

Quote from: DebitMe on September 15, 2014, 08:57:08 AM

Quote from: Ente on September 15, 2014, 06:51:25 AM

Quote from: DebitMe on September 14, 2014, 10:27:28 PM

I am still trying to figure out how the swaps work from the lending side, but I found something I thought was a little odd. I have a swap lent for 30 days, and it has been lent fully for the last 3 days. The last 2 days I received the exact same amount of interest deposited into my account, but today, it was less. Shouldn't the same amount be earned in interest each day, given that it was lent out all day, and for the same interest rate?

Just to be 100% sure: is it FRR (variable, flash-rate) or fixed-rate swap?

Ente

I think it was fixed rate, I typed in the box, 30 days, 0.0165% interest rate, 1 btc

Follow up, received the interest to my account for the following day (4th day of loan) and it was back to what the first 2 days had been. So that makes 3 days with the same interest amount and 1 day with a different amount. Something isn't right, unless there is something I am not thinking of that would cause 1 day to have a lower amount of interest paid?

DoubleSwapper

full member

Activity: 172

Merit: 100

I've encountered yet another bug in the BFX swap system regarding wrong durations. A swap in my "provided list" has just popped up showing 27 days when this was never issued by me and wasn't in the book just 5 hours ago while showing it has been taken nearly 2 days ago. I've written to the BFX support. No idea what is happening at the moment but they should better get their lending system cleaned up. There are quite a few bugs popping up at the moment.

gog1

hero member

Activity: 756

Merit: 500

Quote from: aonori on September 16, 2014, 11:29:01 AM

I wanna short TH1, but can't receive swap and shown error message "Invalid offer: not enough margin balance".
I have some BTC on my deposit wallet.
What type of currency need for shot TH1? USD?

move them to your trading wallet

aonori

newbie

Activity: 6

Merit: 0

I wanna short TH1, but can't receive swap and shown error message "Invalid offer: not enough margin balance".
I have some BTC on my deposit wallet.
What type of currency need for shot TH1? USD?

gog1

hero member

Activity: 756

Merit: 500

Quote from: nrd525 on September 15, 2014, 04:16:11 PM

"As I understand the announcement you pay interest & dividend if you short TH and that makes no sense to me."

It doesn't totally make sense to me either. But I think that at the end of each day when the dividend is paid the price should fall by the amount of the dividend - so as a shorter you will see that as a profit on your position.

well, in the real world, for high demand (for shorting) stock - you have to pay a "fee" to borrow the stock to short, you can use the money you get from the shorts to buy t-bill and get some yield.

the unfortunate thing here is that the margin trading is more like CFD, you short the TH1, you don't get 2 BTC in your account up front, and you have to keep paying the dividend out of your own pocket - you only get the difference when you settle

nrd525

legendary

Activity: 1868

Merit: 1023

"As I understand the announcement you pay interest & dividend if you short TH and that makes no sense to me."

It doesn't totally make sense to me either. But I think that at the end of each day when the dividend is paid the price should fall by the amount of the dividend - so as a shorter you will see that as a profit on your position.

nrd525

legendary

Activity: 1868

Merit: 1023

It'd be nice if they had a fixed time for the dividend payment as this is going to have a large impact on price.

Topic: [OFFICIAL]Bitfinex.com first Bitcoin P2P lending platform for leverage trading - page 148. (Read 723861 times)