At 15.25 UTC someone took a BTC Swap of ~2000 BTC pushing Bitfinex BTC Swap rates to 0.99% per day: (Exhibit A) https://i.imgur.com/AKTJ1cQ.png) and (Exhibit B) https://i.imgur.com/22cBkAt.png
Within a hour the swap was closed (see Exhibit A https://i.imgur.com/AKTJ1cQ.png). But strangely no margin trade of ~2k BTC was done during the time the swap was active. See here (Exhibit C) https://i.imgur.com/696xtZi.png
(The 24h Bitfinex BTC volume is only ~1900 BTC!).
So what happened here? someone made a mistake? probably not. Look at this:
Because of this transaction FRR rose to 0.11239 % per day (= average rate on all active BTC Swaps, this is the rate most margin traders will take swaps for) and stayed at that rate for 4 hours now (was 0.03274 before this transaction…) (Exhibit D) https://i.imgur.com/oSb7G7H.png
Shortly after closing the swap, someone added a bunch of Swap offers ( ~2000 BTC worth) to the Bitfinex Lendbook @ 0.1122 % (FRR) per day at 17.04 UTC. (Exhibit E) https://i.imgur.com/1zqHChf.png (I checked the bitfinex api)
So First take a 2K Swap -> Swap rate rises close to 1 % per day -> FRR rises to ~0.11 -> close the Swap -> offer the same 2K BTC at FRR (0.1122%) and have them active for a few hours, or maybe days. You probably make more than it had cost you to pull of this action...
Charts from http://charts-bfxdata.rhcloud.com
source: http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/25hfx8/bitfinex_swap_rate_manupulation_101/
This was posted yesterday, BTC FRR remained @ ~0.11 for the last 12 hours, just starting to decline again a bit...