Will Smith hasn't won an Oscar before, he was nominated for The Pursuit of Happyness and for Ali. Both pretty good movies, but he didn't win. Given that he is making movies and Series for such a long time, I would expect him to win this year. Nicole Kidman has one 1 Oscar so far I think, for best actress in The Hours, which was a long time ago. The chances look good that these two will win this year. Nominees have definitely impact on the votes. As for the supporting actors/actress and director, I don't know them really. It's still some time left until the Academy Awards, I might bet 1-2 weeks before on Will Smith. He is a great actor and deserves his Oscar.
Everyone says that the favorite is Will Smith, and that's the only reason I believe he can win because the Oscar is bought, but I prefer to believe in my fundamentals.
Who should win is Benedict Cumberbatch, he represented a very difficult character, indecipherable, mysterious, silent, full of secrets in a constant internal conflict that dominates "Attack of the Dogs" moving the pieces of that game. It is also worth mentioning that we have a British man playing a real American cowboy in a delicate work to contain the accent and print his own way of speaking.
Now, lies what kind of politics is within the Oscar Academy Awards.
Cumberbatch is a very good competitor of Smith on this category, but we don't know the mood of the judges today.
I watched Smith's movie, and quite good as well. But if people are looking for a much challenging role, I can really go for Cumberbatch.
Once the results are out, we will understand how this Oscar's are panning out. And you will know if betting on Oscar's is worth or not.
