Over 70BTC bet that Bitcoin will be $10,000 by end of 2014 - page 2.

Tzupy

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Quote from: digitizedcurrency2010 on November 27, 2014, 10:32:55 PM

It would be really helpful if bitcoin price can drop to under 100 $ . This will take care of the short term speculators who hopefully would cut their losses and will move on to better investment ideas.
All the miners who are producing coins at roughly 350$ today and are hoarding hopefully would be forced to sell their coin and help bring other people into space.

Such a drop would shake the suckers who bought high in 2013 / 2014 and concentrate the circulating bitcoins even more into the hands of speculator whales.
This would make this market even more cornered than now, so I hope it won't happen. Something like 150$ - 200$ for THE bottom would be healthy IMO.

STT

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Ive not seen this thread before but being able to place a bet on lower bitcoin would be useful to some making investments reliant on its worth. This might have been an easier bet to make though - http://bitbet.us/bet/888/lewis-hamilton-to-win-2014-f1-world-champion/

An emotional move downwards would probably reset speculation for a while but it seems like we have already lost alot of passengers along the way already. I think more ability to hedge would encourage investment and be helpful

digitizedcurrency2010

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It would be really helpful if bitcoin price can drop to under 100 $ . This will take care of the short term speculators who hopefully would cut their losses and will move on to better investment ideas.
All the miners who are producing coins at roughly 350$ today and are hoarding hopefully would be forced to sell their coin and help bring other people into space.

matt608

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Quote from: smoothie on April 17, 2014, 01:42:09 AM

I don't personally think we will break $10,000 this year but I think we could get to $4000 to $9000 likely as a peak this year and stabilize around $2500 as a nice round number/average.

My prediction also.

boumalo

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Quote from: Deviant1 on April 17, 2014, 06:48:42 AM

The payout on taking the no side of the Bitbet is pretty sad - bet 1BTC, get back 1.15 BTC and it still has 7 months to go!

Why on earth would anyone even bother with this?

15% is huge when the price is 500$ and there is ONLY 7months to go; I am very bullish on Bitcoin but I don't think there is 10% chance of the price to be 10,000$ by the end of November; 3-5000$ by November or 10,000$ in 2015 would be way more likely but probably still unlikely

wachtwoord

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Quote from: Deviant1 on April 17, 2014, 06:48:42 AM

The payout on taking the no side of the Bitbet is pretty sad - bet 1BTC, get back 1.15 BTC and it still has 7 months to go!

Why on earth would anyone even bother with this?

I explain that in the post right before you. I think the payout is way too high.

Deviant1

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The payout on taking the no side of the Bitbet is pretty sad - bet 1BTC, get back 1.15 BTC and it still has 7 months to go!

Why on earth would anyone even bother with this?

wachtwoord

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B = value of Bitcoin

It's important to see that the bet is denoted in BTC so say you have 1 BTC:

1. In case B = $10,000 (or more)

If not bet ==> You have [$10,000, INF]
If bet YES ==> you have [$40,500- INF] (GAIN == 3.05xB)
If bet NO ==> you have $0 (LOSS== B)

2. In case 1 BTC < $10,000

If not bet you have [$0-$10,000)
If bet YES you have $0 (LOSS == B)
If bet no you have [$0-$11,500) (GAIN = 0.15B)

So in the case you bet YES and the value of the BTC is <$10,000 you lose whatever BTC is worth at the time (but less than $10,000) and when you win you gain

EV(No Bet) = B
EV(YES) = P(>$10,000) 4.05B
EV(NO) = (1-P(>$10,000)) 1.15B

So when solving this with my calculator:

P(X>10,000) is between 0 and 0.13 then betting NO is best EV = [1B-1.15B)
P(X>10,000) is between 0.13 and 0.25 NOT betting is best EV = B
P(X>10,000) is between 0.25 and 1 betting YES is best EV = [1B-4.05B]

Given these odds betting YES is completely retarded and betting NO is likely best.

Swordsoffreedom

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Quote from: smoothie on April 17, 2014, 01:42:09 AM

I don't personally think we will break $10,000 this year but I think we could get to $4000 to $9000 likely as a peak this year and stabilize around $2500 as a nice round number/average.

Think Smoothie has a better prediction sense than I would so will sell at 4000 to 9000 and prepare to buy at around 2500 next time we see a jump up XD

smoothie

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LEALANA Bitcoin Grim Reaper

I don't personally think we will break $10,000 this year but I think we could get to $4000 to $9000 likely as a peak this year and stabilize around $2500 as a nice round number/average.

chessnut

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Heck, thats a 'YES' bet I wanna win! if its over 10k by the end of this year, well then it's probably going to be $15k..... so at those odds, Id bet a little on yes, and It will be very rewarding to win.

Swordsoffreedom

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Quote from: boumalo on April 14, 2014, 06:59:55 AM

Quote from: Swordsoffreedom on April 13, 2014, 11:16:17 PM

No pays: 1.152642 BTC
Well it is a 26.1% Yield if you can wait seven months right now in BTC so not a bad bet for no
in 7 months 1 week

1.15 is not guaranteed, when we will get closer to the end of November, people will bet on NO if the price isn't close to 10,000$ so the payout will go down; it is a weighted bet so I would estimate you can make 1.08-1.11 if you bet now; I am considering doing it

Well an 8 to 11% Year over Year return in any other asset would be considered Phenomenal (Actually a bit higher not a full year) so it may be a good hedge to keep your money sitting down when the price changes and what not, still not a bad tradeoff.

boumalo

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Quote from: Swordsoffreedom on April 13, 2014, 11:16:17 PM

No pays: 1.152642 BTC
Well it is a 26.1% Yield if you can wait seven months right now in BTC so not a bad bet for no
in 7 months 1 week

1.15 is not guaranteed, when we will get closer to the end of November, people will bet on NO if the price isn't close to 10,000$ so the payout will go down; it is a weighted bet so I would estimate you can make 1.08-1.11 if you bet now; I am considering doing it

Quote from: ArticMine on April 13, 2014, 10:42:08 PM

I am on the yes side. Consider that the Second Market Bitcoin trust will be available to small investors before then and there is also there is a good chance the Winklevoss Bitcoin ETF could get approved before then. In fact if the latter happens BTC/USD could go significantly higher than 10000.

10,000$ at the end of November is possible but very unlikely and I am bullish on Bitcoin, I could see 3000-5000$ if everything goes right but you may be a bit blinded by the fact you bet on the price to be at 10,000$ at the end of November 2014

piramida

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Borsche

Quote from: boumalo on April 13, 2014, 05:27:14 PM

Quote from: piramida on April 13, 2014, 04:34:01 PM

Quote from: Malin Keshar on April 09, 2014, 05:57:59 PM

Wouldn't be better for the 10k believers just hodl then sell at 20X profit, instead of bet then win way less than 20x?

Aren't you silly now are you? Bet is paid out in bitcoins. So instead of 1 bitcoin you get 5, at 100x profit. See?

You bet a week after the bet went up so you would probably make a lot more than x5 since you would be making x4 betting now if no one else bet and the bet has been up for 4months

If you bet no and lose you lose 10,000$ if you bet no and win you win way less..

probably not, as when the price goes to four digits again, there will be alot more Yes bets, diluting previous bets. thats the way the system works, unfortunately, earlier bets have more weight however the ratio is not set in stone. the only way to get a good payout would be if the price would jump to 10k suddenly in the 5-day window after the betting closes, which is not going to happen:)

Wolf Rainer

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Seem´s imposible.

Swordsoffreedom

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Quote from: podyx on April 13, 2014, 11:18:28 PM

Quote from: Swordsoffreedom on April 13, 2014, 11:16:17 PM

No pays: 1.152642 BTC
Well it is a 26.1% Yield if you can wait seven months right now in BTC so not a bad bet for no
in 7 months 1 week

If it is like $3k in novebmer more people will vote no though

Think you get a higher payout the earlier the bet is put in but not certain on how bitbet works myself

podyx

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Quote from: Swordsoffreedom on April 13, 2014, 11:16:17 PM

No pays: 1.152642 BTC
Well it is a 26.1% Yield if you can wait seven months right now in BTC so not a bad bet for no
in 7 months 1 week

If it is like $3k in novebmer more people will vote no though

Swordsoffreedom

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No pays: 1.152642 BTC
Well it is a 26.1% Yield if you can wait seven months right now in BTC so not a bad bet for no
in 7 months 1 week

ArticMine

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Monero Core Team

I am on the yes side. Consider that the Second Market Bitcoin trust will be available to small investors before then and there is also there is a good chance the Winklevoss Bitcoin ETF could get approved before then. In fact if the latter happens BTC/USD could go significantly higher than 10000.

boumalo

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Quote from: Ibian on April 13, 2014, 05:50:42 PM

Quote from: TTM on April 13, 2014, 05:33:31 PM

Let me remind you guys, once Bitcoin reach ATH of 31 USD, then it crashed and took nearly 2 years to regain that mark. We might need another 2 years or even more just to reach $1000 again. $10000 this year seems to be unrealistic at current situation.

That would be wonderful. More time to accumulate coins, way more net worth once it does shoot up.

Exactly but it was a very different time; people have heard about Bitcoin they will buy more when the financial crisis will hit the US and Europe

Reaching 10,000$ this year is possible but I would estimate the probability today at 4-5%; 3-4000$ on the other hand...

Topic: Over 70BTC bet that Bitcoin will be $10,000 by end of 2014 - page 2. (Read 13704 times)