Topic: Parity watch -> Who's next? - page 15. (Read 68224 times)

How come japan has so much M1 money?!
6.735 trillion USD ?!

I'm already there representing Bitcoin, don't worry

I'll take a picture on Wednesday.

Any ETA for when we arrive in the G77, G20?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Group_of_77

Could ask for a "seat at the table" of UN for the lulz ...

or the G-24 ??

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Group_of_24

Laos has been surpassed. You need to update the parity values based on latest number of total coins (10978925 atm)

Looks like we're aiming for Laos now.

So, how many countries have we passed so far?

Update to Cambodia!

I'd be ok with that. 

oops...
so x10
so parity price would be about 1470$

This is off by an order of magnitude. It is $165 billion USD per year.

I already selected the statistic from blockchain.info which attempts to subtract out the change sent back to the sender.

A lot of those BTC are change too.

What about the idea of comparing transaction volume to other payment processors?

Paypal has a transaction volume of about 16 billion US$ per year.

Bitcoin's current transaction volume is about 300,000 BTC per day. If we assume a market price of 90$ that would add up to about 10 billion US$ per year.

So if Bitcoin usage and price stays at least at the current level then it is already 62% of Paypal.


The parity price for Paypal (assuming transactions stay at least the same) would be:
147$

Of course a significant amount of usage for Bitcoin is exchanging for Fiat currency while Paypal is almost all for goods and services.

haha: http://rt.com/news/bitcoin-challenge-dollar-currency-121/

this "idea" of comparing bitcoin "market cap" to money floating around in various currencies is making the round.

I should have been more clear. I meant a loss after the cost of the rig was subtracted.

Guys, please let us stay on topic.

I was just keeping it simple.





I think you misunderstood the main point of my argument, and that is that there is a feedback between bitcoin price and the running cost of all the miners, and that this running cost will tend to a non trivial part of the amount of USD you get when you multiply the price of bitcoin with the awards.  I estimated this to be 0.5 to 0.75 of the awards.  And this amount of money has to be balanced with the new speculative investments for the price to be stable.


Modeling a lifetime of a single ASIC is a more complicated way to do it, simply because your less and less efficient miner starts its life with less competition, and then ends it with more.  But I am looking only one point in time, and the distribution of costs (electricity and all) of all miners.

And that distribution is the only thing you need for the argument to work.  The initial cost of miners, if bought with USD does not effect the price of BTC simply because it does not go trough the exchanges.  (If you bought it with BTC, I'm sure a large part of that will get out of BTC at some point)

This is how you construct the picture.  Take the cost of running each miner in BTC per BTC mined,  sort them, lower to higher.   The area under that curve is the number we are interested in.

We might get something like this:

And the idea is that the real distribution tends to something with the properties:

-no miner is free of running costs -> the curve does not start at (0,0), but at (0,x) where x > 0
-the last miner will be marginally profitabile, -> the curve ends at (n,1)

If the price jumps, the curve could temporary look like this:


But this means that mining is hugely profitable, and market forces will push it in this direction:


and then the difficulty will adjust:



(I took my estimates as lines  (0,0.5 to n, 1) -> 0.75, and (0,0 to n,1) -> 0.5.)

This.  When ASICS are $1/TH (or whatever they get to when they are on the same process size as top of then line CPUs) I'll be cashing out a few BTC for mining hardware.  Until then, I'll run some GPUs in the winter to keep warm and hold any satoshis I can eek out.

A great and overlooked truth, that.  It's why I quit mining in August, and went to straight buying.

I sold off my mining equipment by putting together a few awesome gaming machines at very competitive prices, for some people I know who are into that.

Can't do that with ASICs... so I'll let the people who want to go pure pro deal with mining.  I'll pick up some little ASIC miner one of these days, when you can actually buy one and get it in a few days - just to support the network - and solo mine for the hell of it.  I could get lucky.

Sure, but their effect on the price is exactly the same as if they bought those bitcoins on the exchange, plus some security.

In other words, they do not change the feedback loop where the rising prices of bitcoins cause the price of bitcons to fall.