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Topic: Peter Zeihan - in a world of carbon taxes, cryptos net worths is negative - page 2. (Read 349 times)

legendary
Activity: 4410
Merit: 4766
Inflation is skyrocketing because the governments have been printing lots of money in the past few years.
All of this money is still present in the market and the whales are just moving it from one domain to other.
The money gets revolved from one kind of investment to others. Right now everyone is scared because of the on going inflation/recession and market crashes.
So the dust needs to settle down before people start pouring their money into crypto again.
I guess it will take another 2 years for that to happen.

exactly
the money print of 2020 was not a large push out to the citizens to trickle up. the amount that went to citizens in the covid cheques was small in comparison to the money print hidden away in darkpools of institutions. however in 2022 this started to "trickle down" meaning too much money in citizens hands and so businesses raise their prices to "trickle up" that money again. and thats the inflation part
and now that people have less money but prices are high we are now in recession era
hero member
Activity: 2702
Merit: 716
Nothing lasts forever
Im a fan of Peter Zeihan and in general agree with many of his arguments, such as China collapsing by 2030 due to demographics and Germany falling down the economic ladder fast due to its reliance on ever-more expensive fossil fuels. So that's why Im torn on his views on crypto - hes usually right.

He goes on to say "crypto is the poster child for the environment from 1990 - 2022 when we had unlimited volumes of capital. Now with that the money is going away, crypto is going away"

My take on this is that yes, while there will be less capital going forward, fiat is still created at the whim of commercials banks, therefore the idea of a digital cash that cant be debased is a powerful one. On future carbon taxes, which I agree with, the bitcoin network can easily operate on a fully renewable grid - the problem with renewables is they are intermittent and the energy requires storage. Neither of these limitations apply to the Bitcoin network.

at 53min 20 - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aHUoMmKDLUI



Inflation is skyrocketing because the governments have been printing lots of money in the past few years.
All of this money is still present in the market and the whales are just moving it from one domain to other.
The money gets revolved from one kind of investment to others. Right now everyone is scared because of the on going inflation/recession and market crashes.
So the dust needs to settle down before people start pouring their money into crypto again.
I guess it will take another 2 years for that to happen.
legendary
Activity: 4410
Merit: 4766
oh leg-end. .. im noticing how much you misunderstand about many things,
not just crypto value and utility. but also geo-politics.

ill start with geo-politics
china's issues is not about what you heard on fox news and then re-sung by some youtube video guy.

they have power. they actually are very efficient in their power production and end consumer utility..
its actually americans that waste more energy per person than china
heck even looking at the gas-guzzling cars in america compared to the UK. america waste alot of fuel

as for the mistreatment of the uyghurs, where the guy in the video mentions how china is being left out of international trade deals due to about 1m uyghurs detained and retrained..
of a chinese population of 1.4b vs 1m detainees 0.07%
america has 330m and 1m mexicans detained and retrained.. 0.3%

america have a bigger problem of people in jail/prison/detained immigrants/minorities

but lets return to the crypto stuff involving china
what china found is many people were residential mining(hobby mining) over running the neighbourhoods circuit breakers and causing localised brownouts due to stealing electric and tripping the neighbourhoods circuit breakers

also there were lots of unregistered and unregulated businesses. it became too much to handle/police.. so they had to shut it down. even the ones operating legitimately

the idea years ago was to prohibit bitcoin and then licence it through regulations. but they didnt see a easy path to police the malicious hobby miners

its the same as cannabis growers. people growing in their basements was a "war on drugs" that lasted decades

.. as for the other conspiracy that china is a dead country with dying population dying economy
thats just more BS you would expect to hear from fox news

if you actually bother to travel to countries you want to discuss you will see a different picture
you will see the "belt and road" which is forming new trade passages, things the EU would never dare invest in due to EU not affording such projects of such magnitude

but to try to say china is dead, based on stupid misunderstandings of GDP. is the same stupid misunderstanding of people trying to value crypto based on the nonsense number of "market cap"
GDP has become a nonsense number of meaningless relevance


Quote
Now if Franky1 is correct, then BTC price will increase to offset the increase in miners cost, but if that were true, then why are so many miners going bankrupt now.

not all miners mine for the same costs.
the value line is not "all miners" nor "average" its the BOTTOM cost. the most efficient miners.

the rest of them have higher costs.
EG hobby miners in hawaii have a $90k/btc cost to mine. so do you know what they do..
.. they dont mine right now and instead buy bitcoin direct.
why?.. well obviously its a 6x cheaper offer to just buy bitcoin than mine it.

if some idiot miners decided to continue mining at a loss.. that is on them.

also the recent news of a mining business going bankrupt was because they were doing scammy "cloud mining" but no one wanted to pay for the "contracts" due to the ask price being stupidly higher than market rate. they deserved to die


its this reason why for the last year the average hashrate has stayed around the 230 average hashrate(temp peaking to 310 and temp dipping to 160)

what you find is the most efficient mining is on the increase, and the less efficent mining is on the decrease
but its why there is no mass of hobby miners bringing the hashrate up to 350exa hash at a sustainable level which would have been the case if the price was higher because the hobby miners play to the whims of the market and jump off mining to become bitcoin market buyers.

but the efficient miners have been sustaining a level..
which if you look at the BOTTOMS of 2020-2022 prices
you will see we are at a higher bottom than 2020
and youll see a higher bottom of mining too in 2022 compared to 2020

which shows that increase of hashrate has caused an increase to the bottom

the rest of the speculative market ontop is just that speculations of different peoples viewpoints of their own individual decisions on when they want to buy.


your biggest mistake seems to be to the the 2021 ATH was a "sustained value" point where the price correction after was not a return to value(in your eyes) but a destruction of value.
you are wrong the value line of 2020 was about $3k and value in 2022 is ~$15k

again the speculative market above value is then the volatile premium of speculating based on random sentiment
member
Activity: 65
Merit: 24
This statement is ridiculous since miner could just mine with renewable/sustainable energy which has less carbon and it only has small impact on cryptocurrency which doesn't use PoW. Report by Bitcoin Mining Council also show majority Bitcoin miner use renewable/sustainable energy.

I agree. It does look like Zeihan and many others think because Bitcoin uses the same energy as Switzerland roughly, it can only ever function using this amount of energy. They dont understand the difficulty adjustment and game theory elements.
member
Activity: 65
Merit: 24


Quote
I believe that in a few more years, many countries will discover that, LIKE GERMANY, pursuing the dream of having their energy sources from mostly renewable sources is a MISTAKE. They are simply too unreliable.

If fossil fuels weren't depleting at 5% - 7% per year, and weren't causing catastrophic climate change, nobody would consider using anything else. Unfortunately, they are and a transition is something renewable is a good thing. The problem is there is a one big lie: there is no renewable technology that doesn't involve everyones standard of living dropping. Either way, we're fucked. But more fucked in the former case.
member
Activity: 280
Merit: 30
Im a fan of Peter Zeihan and in general agree with many of his arguments, such as China collapsing by 2030 due to demographics

While aging demographics pose some problem, there's no way it'll make China collapse.

Peter Zeihan - in a world of carbon taxes, cryptos net worths is negative

He goes on to say "crypto is the poster child for the environment from 1990 - 2022 when we had unlimited volumes of capital. Now with that the money is going away, crypto is going away"

This statement is ridiculous since miner could just mine with renewable/sustainable energy which has less carbon and it only has small impact on cryptocurrency which doesn't use PoW. Report by Bitcoin Mining Council also show majority Bitcoin miner use renewable/sustainable energy.

Looking at China , growing inability to keep the power on and growing inability to feed themselves , collapse is not out of the question,
part of the reason they started the PoW ban.

PoW uses an insane amount of energy , carbon taxes would drive up input costs for miners to increase bankruptcies that are already skyrocketing without carbon taxes.
Now if Franky1 is correct, then BTC price will increase to offset the increase in miners cost, but if that were true, then why are so many miners going bankrupt now.
IMO, it is because the VC money that kept the PoW miners afloat has dried up for the majority, and the VC money is what was propping up the price and that is going away.
Bitcoin Mining Council puts out alot of propaganda bullshit,
BTC miners are using power grids that have some renewables as a % of their total which include coal, nuclear, & natural gas as the bulk %.
The Polar Vortex in the US, just caused 30% of the bitcoin hashrate to go offline for 3 days to avoid grid failure, this caused a decrease in the speed of finding new blocks, the only thing saving BTC, is hardly anyone is using it's blockchain anymore.
The Lack of VC money will hurt all crypto, killing most and only the very strong top 20 Non-PoW coin networks will survive and any tokens running on those networks, the rest are just fubar.
legendary
Activity: 4410
Merit: 4766
Most electric utilities will pass the cost of their carbon tax on to the consumer.  Therefore, a Bitcoin Miner would be operating at a loss, if they are consuming utility power.  So why mine Bitcoins?  For what purpose?  Bitcoins inherently have absolutely no tangible value (only perceived value).  

bitcoin has features and utility. and so people want bitcoin.
how they get it depends on their costs.
some miners can mine coin below the market rate. some not so much so they just buy it.

bitcoin is not tangible(physical in hand) as a currency but its method of creation is tangible. (dropping an asic on your head will hurt you)
spotify is not tangible(digital audio) but a server farm creating the audio is real. if a server rack falls on you, you'll feel it, as you would if you tried to walk up to an song artist and tell them they are fake. (enjoy the slap/punch)

bitcoin has intrinsic value. there is underlying cost in its creation and then as people acquire and pass on coins new buyers acquire at the sell rate too

there are 2 different markets and people dont realise that the public spot market of speculation is the premium(retail) market not the value(wholesale) market
newbie
Activity: 13
Merit: 0
Most electric utilities will pass the cost of their carbon tax on to the consumer.  Therefore, a Bitcoin Miner would be operating at a loss, if they are consuming utility power.  So why mine Bitcoins?  For what purpose?  Bitcoins inherently have absolutely no tangible value (only perceived value).  The only thing that makes sense would be for a Bitcoin miner to consumer 100% renewable power from wind/solar/hydro.  Even then, renewable sources of power are not constant, so that would require the miner to install storage batteries that could provide power when there is no wind or sun.  Again, that requires more $$$ investments.  Given all of these costs to eliminate the bitcoin miners carbon footprint, why do bitcoin mining at all?  It appears to be a very unprofitable business, and environmentally hazardous if the miner is not consuming renewable power.  The truth demonstrates that the process is very inefficient.  SO why not utilize different blockchain technology, that is more efficient than Bitcoin?  In this year of 2023, there are many more crypto-tokens available that are more environmentally friendly, and can perform the same function as a Bitcoin.  Why mine bitcoins at all?  I'm very curious to know the benefits?
legendary
Activity: 2898
Merit: 1823
Im a fan of Peter Zeihan and in general agree with many of his arguments, such as China collapsing by 2030 due to demographics and Germany falling down the economic ladder fast due to its reliance on ever-more expensive fossil fuels. So that's why Im torn on his views on crypto - hes usually right.


He sounds like a FUDster. China collapse by 2030? That would entail that every other country that relies on Chinese production would collapse too. A war would ensue before that could happen.

Quote

He goes on to say "crypto is the poster child for the environment from 1990 - 2022 when we had unlimited volumes of capital. Now with that the money is going away, crypto is going away"


"Money is going away"? Did he mean to say Quantitative tightening? The Federal Reserve will pivot as early as March, 2023 if inflation would drop quick enough. The printer will be back, and the money will flow ser. Cool

Quote

My take on this is that yes, while there will be less capital going forward, fiat is still created at the whim of commercials banks, therefore the idea of a digital cash that cant be debased is a powerful one.


It's not "on the whim of the commercial banks", it's the FED.

Quote

On future carbon taxes, which I agree with, the bitcoin network can easily operate on a fully renewable grid - the problem with renewables is they are intermittent and the energy requires storage. Neither of these limitations apply to the Bitcoin network.

at 53min 20 - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aHUoMmKDLUI


I believe that in a few more years, many countries will discover that, LIKE GERMANY, pursuing the dream of having their energy sources from mostly renewable sources is a MISTAKE. They are simply too unreliable.
legendary
Activity: 1512
Merit: 7340
Farewell, Leo
you have things backwards
For all products in an economy, the cost to produce is a parameter of market value, because it determines the supply. If the cost drops, the supply increases. If the cost rises, the supply decreases. But difficulty doesn't allow that to happen. If you find the cheapest electricity on the planet, and it takes you $1,000 to mine a bitcoin, then you're just stealing other miners' income; you don't arbitrarily increase the money supply. The demand for bitcoins remain the same, the supply for bitcoins remain the same. You're just making the money other miners would.
member
Activity: 65
Merit: 24
I dont see things going back to normal. Debt is growing at 4 times GDP and has been for a few decades. Bitcoin can grow, but not because things go back to normal, rather due to a collapse/recalibration which looks inevitable IMO.
When economy collapses, things eventually go back to normal. Have you forgotten what happened in 2008? Look it up. There was chaos as economy was collapsing (bitcoin was created during that time too) and things went back to normal and most people forgot that their centralized monetary system is seriously flawed and corrupted. Those who didn't forget started adopting bitcoin.

If normal is 1990 to 2020, I dont see us ever going back. I agree with Macron, we are likely at the end of the age of abundance due to climate change, international conflict and continued supply chain issues. Im trying to figure out can Bitcoin survive in the new era of scarcity of everything due to aforementioned issues - which has already begun IMO. It must become a true inflation hedge if it is to.

https://www.connexionfrance.com/article/French-news/Macron-France-is-at-the-end-of-its-age-of-abundance
legendary
Activity: 3080
Merit: 1500
He goes on to say "crypto is the poster child for the environment from 1990 - 2022 when we had unlimited volumes of capital. Now with that the money is going away, crypto is going away"

Doesn't make sense! Money isn't going away! We are going through a mild crypto winter and the situation will be normal again and we will see an influx of capital sooner than expected. It's just that FTX collapse and ongoing legal investigations against Binance are putting the market at risk and that's why a lot of investors are pulling away their capital. They will be back shortly.

Quote
On future carbon taxes, which I agree with, the bitcoin network can easily operate on a fully renewable grid - the problem with renewables is they are intermittent and the energy requires storage. Neither of these limitations apply to the Bitcoin network.

The problem with renewable energy is that they require a large amount of investment, to begin with. Once it is set up and running, the operating cost is much lesser than any conventional source of energy. Such kind of large investment is usually out of the reach of a startup or a small company. We may see a completely different picture if the market comes back to its former glory so that mining companies are able to collect the fund. Right now it's somewhat dicey.
hero member
Activity: 3150
Merit: 937
The "dirty" electricity produced by burning coal is already "carbon taxed". There's a market for carbon emissions and the coal burning power plants have to buy carbon emission permits, in order to sell their electricity.
The BTC/crypto miners, who are buying such "dirty" electricity had already paid the carbon tax, because the carbon tax is included in the price of the "dirty" electricity. This Peter Zeihan guy is talking BS. Crypto mining should not be taxed twice, because this would be unfair.
I agree that the "easy money" era is temporarily gone, and this is what causes the crypto winter, but the fiat financial system cannot survive without money printing.
hero member
Activity: 1862
Merit: 601
The Martian Child
I really disagree. Many people are suffering from this economic downturn but it doesn't mean that there is no money. I believe that there are more governments nowadays that are printing more money than ever. Big companies are still big and even some of them are taking advantage of this current situation. It is all about opportunities and these giant corporations are capable of doing so because they have the needed capital and influence. Let's just say that what happened to LUNA and FTX are the main reasons the market is still down. Not saying that bitcoin should pump and regain its previous highest price but without that bad news, bitcoin should've been at the $20k level something.

When this world economic crisis ends, ordinary people will once again have excess money to invest in bitcoin. Bitcoin network depending on energy is not a big deal since there are always places on earth that are conducive for it. Fiat's value will continue to decline while bitcoin will continue to increase due to its limited supply and decentralized manner.
legendary
Activity: 3472
Merit: 10611
I dont see things going back to normal. Debt is growing at 4 times GDP and has been for a few decades. Bitcoin can grow, but not because things go back to normal, rather due to a collapse/recalibration which looks inevitable IMO.
When economy collapses, things eventually go back to normal. Have you forgotten what happened in 2008? Look it up. There was chaos as economy was collapsing (bitcoin was created during that time too) and things went back to normal and most people forgot that their centralized monetary system is seriously flawed and corrupted. Those who didn't forget started adopting bitcoin.
copper member
Activity: 2156
Merit: 983
Part of AOBT - English Translator to Indonesia
But money is not going away, they are actually printing more of it and right now the "capital" is too scared to jump into bitcoin.
When the inflation+recession growth stops, things could go back to normal and bitcoin would go up again.

Keep in mind that governments have been printing money like maniacs that has and will crash fiat's value which would only contribute to bitcoin price rise.

This actually very true guys, gov is printing money like crazy. The news is all over the place is might the cause of global recession too. We can take one example US that print around 3 Trillion dollar in 2020 alone https://www.depledgeswm.com/depledge/the-us-printed-more-than-3-trillion-in-2020-alone-heres-why-it-matters-today/

that been using for stimulus and anything.

legendary
Activity: 4410
Merit: 4766
Bitcoin's value is not driven by mining, mining is driven by Bitcoin value.

Bitcoin still fails to exhibit anti-inflation or anti-crisis properties.

you have things backwards

that guy in the video saying bitcoin has no cost no value and due to taxes is a negative.. has it completely wrong
if a miners electric increases due to wars, crisis or taxes. there is more cost. meaning the value rises

bitcoins value is derived from the entire planets lowest cost to acquire bitcoin
and if next year the cost is higher due to wars, crisis or taxes the value rises (it doesnt go negative)

bitcoins value is not derived from the ATH market price(many fools think it is)

there is a 3 layer to the methods of acquiring:
Premium rate- public speculation markets  \_
                                                               _> less efficient miners jump in and out of these groups
preferential rate- OTC platforms                /

value rate                                              - most efficient mining farms stay in this group

its like the retail market
retailer
wholesaler
farmer

bitcoin mining at the most efficient cost is the bottom. if you find the cheapest mining cost of bitcoin ON THE PLANET you find the bottom. yep if no one can acquire bitcoin for less. thats the bottom.
no one wants to sell for less. thus it becomes the ultimate support price for a bottom where people then sell for that amount or more. where there is then a premium for the supply/demand stuff ABOVE the bottom

this bottom can change if there was a PROLONGED hashrate competition drop. but the most efficient miners creating the bottom support do not play to daily whims,so it has to be a prolongs drop

they are not on daily-monthly electric bills. they purchase electric blocks of GW in 6-24 month chunks
their hardware is not running intermittently. it runs on a ~2year life cycle constantly, before selling hardware as second hand to altcoiners/hobbiests, and investing in next gen more efficient hardware

they cost out their costs over those periods and compare it to the coin they get over those periods.
which then calculate to a coin /cost bottom(based on a 6-24month) average

bitcoin value does not change in a volatile manner compared to the market premium, as the costs are semi-fixed for prolonged periods

things like electric rises and tax on electric actually add costs to the bottom. meaning the value rises.

bitcoin does not have negative value due to taxes at the electric(carbon) level. it has positive value or more precisely more premium due to those taxes raising the cost of electric

legendary
Activity: 3024
Merit: 2148
Bitcoin's value is not driven by mining, mining is driven by Bitcoin value. If electricity prices rise, if there are anti-mining regulations, it would just result in migration of mining and maybe lower network hashrate. But unless this drop is very dramatic, it's not going to affect security, and if security is unaffected, the price is unaffected.

My take on this is that yes, while there will be less capital going forward, fiat is still created at the whim of commercials banks, therefore the idea of a digital cash that cant be debased is a powerful one.

Bitcoin still fails to exhibit anti-inflation or anti-crisis properties. It seems to be just as affected as the stock market and other mainstream investments. But on the other hand, the fact that Bitcoin is still alive and well means that the market indeed believes that Bitcoin has some pretty solid fundamentals.
legendary
Activity: 1512
Merit: 7340
Farewell, Leo
the problem with renewables is they are intermittent and the energy requires storage.
And the Bitcoin network is decentralized. Wherever might not have wind power, might have geothermal power, and wherever might not have solar energy, might have cheap electricity. The fact that renewables are intermittent would only matter if there was a single entity responsible for mining; there isn't. There are thousands of miners, all over across the world. Also, not all nations have carbon taxes, and those who do, don't have the same tax.

Simply stated, he believes that Bitcoin has no value because he is personally unable to see any utility, and everything else he said follows logically from that.
Why do these people never have a proper interlocutor?
member
Activity: 65
Merit: 24
How long do you define long run? Fossil fuels are being taken out of the ground 10 million times faster than they were put in - and their usage increases every year. The long run isnt as long as  many seem to imagine IMO.

We are not going to see oil reserves depleted.  There is still plenty of oil. This is not what carbon taxes/credit is about

Carbon taxes exists because when we burn oil, some carbon goes to the atmosphere and this is, supposedly,  bad. And what those esg people are trying to impose is a new energy matrix based on green sources without fossil fuel.

What I am saying is that it is not possible for now, and Europe will just freeze to death without gas, people will have blackouts all over the world without thermal power stations, etc.

Just look at this chart.

https://ourworldindata.org/

And yes, there are plenty fossil fuels reserves

This is not bitcoins fault. Bitcoin miners will automatically use the cheaper energy available.

I agree mostly. In fact I believe there is no replacement for oil that doesnt involve lowering the worlds standard of living. Where I disagree is the plenty of reserves less. The EROI(Energy Returned on Energy Invested) of oil was 1/100, now its 1/15. That is about 100 years ago, for every 1 barrel invested we got 100 out of the ground, now its 15 (as its deeper and harder to get out, and its shale oil).
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