I'm not convinced we are there yet. Myself and lots of other people have been around here for years and have been through this numerous times. I think this is my 6th, but I've lost track. I've developed a sense for the point of maximum pain and have profited pretty handsomely by being able to recognize it. Granted, the market could be mature enough that these sorts of things are becoming somewhat less painful, but it doesn't quite feel like we're there yet. In any event, I'm watching and waiting, because I'm going to try to be there (again) when many of you are feeling that pain. Sorry, and thanks.
I was taken by significant surprise trailing the 2013 $250 run-up. I sensed not near the capitulation, nor the price depression, that I would have expected for things to turn around. Coming off the stabilized price of that and into another run-up lead me to believe that the late 2013 one would probably be larger than it ended up being. Perhaps in retrospect we'll (or I'll) consider the 2013 $250 and $1200 peaks to be part of the same bubble artifact?
I guess I'm saying that I've NOT developed a sense for this stuff, or if I have then it is not a very well tuned one. Oh well. I'm not a trader and never expect to be for these reasons.
