Topic: point of maximum pain - page 7. (Read 12474 times)

Watching.  Waiting.

You should wait for me to call it instead. I've gotten it right before, after all. (Ignore the modified date, that post was modified only to edit some incorrect grammar and fix the img link)

I think we're still a ways away from it, honestly. We've gotten mostly good news out of only one country, the UK. The rest have been mostly negative, China tempting to ban it, US taxing it egregiously. It'll take some time for folks to adjust their expenses and expectations.

Also, there's a whole lot of miners that need to stop selling before we start seeing accumulation again.

When's the next halving at current estimates? When are second generation ASICs coming out? There's a lot of unanswered questions that have more of an impact on price, IMHO than anything else.

Also, how's this one for a prediction? (Note the date: May 2012. The post was about predicting the next two years. I was off on the price valuation and forced transaction fees[unless you consider the IRS regulations forced fees], but not on second-gen ASICs, regulations, and low expenses). Proudhon on the first page suspects the price will hover in the $3-$7 range. I'm not mentioning this to discredit him, because I think he's very good at noting short-term price movements and other extraneous things, but for longer range estimates, you've got to treat Bitcoin like a commodity that has the cost of mining adjusted every time a new mining method comes out that revolutionizes the way present miners obtain coin.

Yes, this.  It's happening, and the transition is clearly affecting the market.  Still a ways to go on that one, but with Gox finally out of the way this process is well underway.

We just need to get rid of these Mt Gox model exchanges and switch to brokerages because exchanges are very risky. That will foster distributed exchanges to be developed because they are less susceptible to panic and volatility.

Does there have to be pain? With world leaders recognizing bitcoin enough to bother writing actual legislation for it, it's no longer just a geeky nerd internet thing. Eventually we will switch from "lol internet money" to "real world economy". We might be somewhere in the middle right now and if so, there is less reason to fear everything falling apart.

Confirmed.

Waiting for Proudhon calling the bottom.

I think that's right.  Though the market is still pretty volatile, so I'm expecting the same kind of painful capitulation events that are felt pretty widely and personally.  Obviously, I could be wrong, and might miss the mark on this one, but bitcoin has been pretty consistent and reasonably predictable in this regard.

As the overall volatility of the market is decreasing, I believe it will be less painful.

The trend is your friend.

Absolutely. I started trading because of bitcoin and it took me almost a year to grasp that concept. At that point I became successful.

Obviously, there's no real science to it.  It's just sort of a feeling I developed from reading as much commentary from participants as possible, and by assessing my own psychology.  In fact, paying pretty close attention to the pain I feel as the market declines has been pretty insightful.  I like to think of myself as a hodler, but when I've started seriously thinking, "maybe it's time I get out, because this is getting scary...", I've managed to take stock of that, clam down, and be remarkably close to picking and re-entering at the bottom.  I've learned that emotional investing can be a real killer, and I've been most successful when I fight against what are very real and very powerful emotional responses to being a market participant.

Everyone listening to Proudhon: He said he made a lot of money above. In October 2011 he told everyone to short and predicted $1 before the price would really start to fall (look up the old threads). Either he was actually buying or he lost money.

The larger marketcap and a multitude of exchanges should dampen the exuberance a bit. The final run on the last top was less extreme than the ones we've seen before, and therefore I'm expecting that the same will hold for the final part of this decline.

I like this sentiment 

So...will you tell us when you think the point of maximum pain is upon us? This is only the second bubble I am observing and I don't feel like I'm very good at gauging it. Fortunately I don't trade on my hunches

Be sure to let us know when that point is so we can profit handsomely with you

Yeahh.. so the point where everyone panic sells and there is no buy support. Analogous to a flash crash?

I'm not knowledgeable about the economical terminology of the phenomenon, but that def. will happen. At some point, there is a psychological breakdown and you simply 'need' to sell.. This is about to happen in the next few days.

That said, I'm not a veteran investor, but I know that if the CHINA ban is not refuted, then CHINA will do everything in its power to transfer to fiat, even if that means double digits.

Only five to ten days left..

I think... more like... the sewer.

No need to feel sorry (well actually I doubt you do feel sorry ). I like your humorous negativism when everyone else is partying.

Following the crowd is always easier than questioning it. So if you profit from it it's well deserved. Keep it up!

What is point of max pain? Could it be described as... the floor?