Hmm, quite the little bear, aren't you a bit too pessimistic about it? 8k would match the last year's December dump, I don't see any reasons for it to go that low, and I also think that we will not see some instant drop probably a long term adjustment with a lot of ups and downs. But, note that I have a habit of failing predictions (be it price,hashrate, elections, weather) with an accuracy that makes me wonder myself what the hell I'm doing.
Absolutely, I'm almost always pessimistic with investments, because I'm not a frequent trader, but rather in it for the long term investment. So, to me short term effects aren't something I usually overthink, or even analyze. Obviously, my ballpoint figure there is at the low point, and is quite frankly a guess without any evidence, or supporting reasons to expect that. The same as with the majority of investors, and others on this forum. Honestly, I expect it between 8-10k based on a personal hunch, and that's pretty much all I have to back that up.
It shouldn't, but you see, history is telling new investors the opposite, even if you would have invested during a "FOMO" period in BTC it is quite likely that you have made at this point a profit, most likely the number of people that bought over 18,600 (price right now) is way below 1%, this, combined with the whole 'hodl" movement it will go probably will get a lot of people in trouble next time, or the time after that.
Again yeah, history may well indicate the opposite, however I'm talking from a principle point of view. Personally, I wouldn't want to invest blindly because of the fear of missing out. Personally, I would have liked to evaluate the market, how its behaved in the past, and that's the reason for my pessimism. I usually, am more inclined to encourage people to expect the worst, rather than encouraging them to think they are going to get rich no matter what. That's simply because I don't want people to be investing because of my viewpoints. Again, talking from a purely principle point of view, you shouldn't be investing in something because someone else said that you should, even if that person has a proven record. That doesn't mean, you'll earn less if you completely regard what I've said, in fact if you take more risks, you're probably more likely to earn more, but also earn less. It's a slippery slope, and I believe personally that people rely on the opinions of others way too much.
I'm also terrible predicting the weather so there's that. Its come to the point I don't even look anymore, and it is what it is when I get outside. Honestly, very similar approach I have with Bitcoin, I only ever hear of the Bitcoin price through news, rather than checking myself