Topic: [poll] - The U.S. Dollar Collapse Is Accelerating - page 2. (Read 6294 times)

Me.   I don't think the dollar is going anywhere, it's too tied into the global economy (too big to fail) so other countries have a vested interest in keeping it afloat. For now.

The inflation rate is at like 1.7% right now, so I'm not particularly concerned with "skyrocketing inflation leading to americas collapse" or whatever glen beck was on about when he was shilling for goldline.

It's also (IMO) the best store of wealth right now.  Precious metals are WAY overpriced right now (as is bitcoin) and I wouldn't be surprised to see all three crash relatively soon.

Then again, a vast majority of my money is in stocks right now (which is just as risky as the other ventures) so take my opinion for what it is.

What he means are the children that will either be politely working to make you neighborhood a nice place to live, or shoving a gun in your face.

Downward pressure for dollar:

Dollar bill printing. May be not very important, since dollar bills are a small part of the money supply.

FED balance decreasing. Equals money printing.

The US national debt. To some degree, the bonds are regarded as money by the public. Increases money supply.

Upward pressure for the dollar:

A possible decreasing trust in the bonds. Reduces the money supply.

A possible decreasing trust in the banks. Reduced deposits equals reduced money supply.

A possible increased demand for holding cash (dollar bills). Presses prices on goods downwards.

Other points:

If the prices start to decrease, this will be met with new price increasing actions from the Fed. A negative real interest rate may be seen.

Countries around the world seem to act more independently, everybody wants to lower the value their own currency. Everybody else responds in a downward spiral.

With interest rate unnaturally low, and subsidies to some industries like banking and housing, malinvestment occurs, destroying capital and reducing wealth.

Salary regulations, and special subsidies and regulations to fix whatever, reduces the dynamics of the markets.

Increase of government spending and subsidies increases GNP, but does not lead to real wealth. Fed action and national debt therefore has to increase even more.

Manipulation of markets paired with manipulation of public opinion on future wealth, future consumer prices, future interest rate and future job possibilities.

What happens first, price inflation or price deflation is uncertain and depend on politician action. In the end, price inflation and high interest rate is almost certain. When? Impossible to say.

Yeah, the best non-conspiracy guy I have found was this guy. He does an amazing job of explaining without saying, "The Illuminati are after us!" I will be showing this one to my family.

Another one woken up. Nice . Of course some of these nuts overdo it on the conspiracy theories (chemtrails anyone?). You took the red pill, now keep using your brain.

All govt-backed fiat currencies are on the same sinking ship. This is a currency war: the race to the bottom. It can't be stopped.

I started reading this thread mostly because of a comment on reddit which led me to a super long video about silver and the coming dollar collapse. I thought it was crazytalk because it seemed too easy to say, "We have too much debt."

I am now going to start stockpiling water and anything I can get my hands on.

This is the video which finally made me realize that people aren't joking or BS'ing:

http://www.reuters.com/video/2013/01/30/reuters-tv-how-the-fed-built-a-3-trillion-balance-s?videoId=240855423&videoChannel=117850

I have seen the debt clock, I have seen the articles about how china is buying assets, and I have no faith in our politicians ability to fix anything.

But it finally hit me like a ton of bricks. No one is listening to the writing on the wall or any voices of reason. It may not be today or tomorrow but this ride is is gonna stop.

...

Good news is we have bitcoins XD

When bitcoin saves the world from the conflict we will all have plenty of gold, silver, and weed .  And be allowed to have them .

I have plenty of weed, it is the others I need.

Weed has been under price for years now... fuck gold and silver buy weed and bitcoins.

I am no economist but... This is looking like it might be bad(Or good if you hold silver, gold, or bitcoins).

He's probably speaking as a US citizen and by "we" he means other citizens.

ARE WE MARRIED??

 

This is less of an issue than the fact that in the waste of that capital, it consumes goods services and labor.

For example, Instead of doing something that helps grow the economy, Billy Bob is standing around in the airport, frisking up innocent civilians. Jimmy Joe is managing Billy Bob and friends, Mary Sue is managing their payroll, Marky Mark is cleaning their crapper, Big Dave is building the office they all work in and *it's all for nothing*. Repeat this many, many times over. It's a tragedy of waste.

Yep... It's the bankers controlling the peanut butter prices, not the peanut farmers or the grocery store, who should be the two actors concerned with pricing.

talk to me about Libor.  it's only the most fundamental interest rate upon which all bonds are priced and thus every other risk asset.

Come now. It's totally possible to have a government that spends money without totally invalidating its nation's markets. If the US doesn't have a pricing mechanism, who's telling the grocery store how much to charge for my peanut butter?

The economic calculation problem is the wogly in command economies, not all government spending everywhere.

Yes, all government does is waste capital because it has no pricing mechanism to perform economic calculation like the market that arises from voluntary human action.

And it is the Austrian school which makes the assertion that you cannot guarantee things in economics because of human action which is inherently unpredictable. So, you misstated.

I know nothing about nothing but here it goes:


Kurgman's position isn't 'party hard on a credit card, let our kids pay for it'. It's a pragmatic observation that if you drastically slash spending in a sluggish economy to balance the budget, you'll inevitably tank the economy and thus also reduce tax income - leaving you with a deficit again plus a nasty recession. And a ginormous debt that we already have that our kids will inherit minus any means to ever pay it down.


Economy is not a zero sum game. Government doesn't (just) spend money on hookers and blow, it educates the next generations of our workforce, builds crucial infrastructure, funds early (commercially unviable) r&d that will power the economy that our kids will work in. That's not wasteful spending that our kids will have to pay for, it's a crucial investment in their future.


Now I believe that the economy is a ridiculously complex, recursive system that we just can't model. Both Keynesians and Austrians latched onto different bits that kind of make sense but neither can guarantee what's going to happen 10 years from now. Interestingly I think there's little disagreement about the effects of 'real' austerity - the death spiral of the current system. From what I can tell, that's kind of the goal of many austrolibertarians - they want to rebuild from there on their (somewhat idealistic) principles. Growing up on the wrong side of the iron curtain has left me deeply suspicious of idealists .


TLDR: we appear to be on course to economic Armageddon
Austrians: nuke it now and start over with gold!
Keynesians: poke it like we always did but harder! If that doesn't work, it'll nuke itself

I particularly like this quote from Krugman in the Rolling Stone article:


Lol wut? You mean, just let the kids in 10 years handle it!? Wtf is this? This is the opposition!?

From his opinion column in the NYT:


I was going to try and play devil's advocate in this thread, but I don't even understand what this man is saying anymore. I think I need to read some more about Keynesian economic theory before I can understand what is going on here...

Can anyone explain this to me?