The driver for SegWit seems to be purely LN
This is an rbtc talking point-- it has no basis in reality. Segwit is largely orthogonal to lightning, and proposed long after it. The reason people keep claiming it is because segwit is above reproach and lightning is less well understood and easier to FUD.
Hmm, I suspect actually a lot of people think that because on the Segwit FAQ, here:
https://bitcoincore.org/en/2016/01/26/segwit-benefits/ it says:
Who benefits?
...
...
The Lightning Network
...
Sure the lightning network benefits from segwit, but it is not the only reason (if a reason at all) that segwit exists. If you look at the rest of the document, there are a whole lot more benefits than just LN. The rbtc taking point is that segwit is only for lightning, but it most certainly is not.
Since GMaxwells ignore system doesn't seem to be functioning, I may address that when I have more time but in the meantime....
I have no idea what "rbtc" is. Searches yield mainly bible groups, so I've really no idea what is being referenced.
The linked document by tertius993 gives 4 benefits.
1. Wallet authors tracking spent bitcoins
According to GMaxwell no one cares, apparently.
2. Anyone spending unconfirmed transactions
This was never a good idea and has always been stated that 6 confirmations is the bare minimum and use zero at your own risk. It is an obvious area for improvement but segwit just offloads the risk to a third party like any side-chain as was intended in the original design.
3. The Lightning Network
Of course.
4. Anyone using the block chain
This is just a sales pitch. At best it is a corollary of #1 without explicit definition.
#1 & #4, if we take these as read, are saying that having an immutable txID has benefits (IMO, malleable TxID was a bug).
#3 was a design decision and the usual retort to things like that from the eminent legendaries is "go make your own alt-coin".
None of them are peculiar to SegWit but #3 requires it.