In what way has Segwit failed? It still has another 10 months to go before the activation period is up.
I don't think it's feasible that Segwit adoption will reach past 30%, given that it peaked at 25% a few months ago. Consensus won't be reached, and the soft fork won't happen.
Firstly, Segquit was a technical solution for political and human problems. Transaction malleability is a problem, but it's easily mitigated in the current environment and is largely irrelevant in the big picture.
Not really. Transaction malleability is still a large problem and not irrelevant. There have been multiple times within the past year where transaction malleability has caused issues. Off the top of my head, I can remember once instance which screwed with a lot of users and wallets.
Dealing with malleability in wallets is still a major pain in the ass for both developers and users.
I think it's fair to say that refactoring hundreds of thousands of lines of bitcoin support code and then fixing the inevitable bugs is far more work than continuing to work around the well-defined malleability problem.
However, Core devs were also becoming increasingly arrogant, because the masses had never rejected one of their releases, and the code forks like XT, Unlimited, and Classic were complete garbage.
In what way are they becoming arrogant? In what way do the devs act arrograntly?
Devs in general act arrogantly about technical issues for a number of reasons:
* because the best solution must be argued decisively to win
* because they know their sh*t
* because it's their primary way of asserting their manhood.
Before Segwit, Core devs had never released code that wasn't adopted. This caused them to believe that they represented the de facto consensus of the bitcoin community, despite loud screaming that they didn't. To core's credit, much of the screeching WAS technically misinformed, FUD, trolling, and possibly sabotage. However, they may have overstepped the line in labeling all critics invalid. Now it's clear to everyone that the masses won't simply follow Core to the end of the earth with an obscure and complicated soft fork.
The Core team is technically far superior to any (known) rivals, but they are only somewhat correct about what issues exist in the entire bitcoin landscape (and there may well be issues that may not be spoken of, but are influential in the decision-making process...). Core was INCORRECT about what remedies the issues require and what priorities they occupy. All of this has been demonstrated in the failed Segwit push. Merely 25% adoption is a resounding defeat and a clear rejection of this soft fork. That said, I'm very sorry for the wasted effort from the team, and very much appreciate Core's continuing commitment to development. I hope devs were able to sell some coin this month!
I'm hoping that Core can accept Segwit's defeat, merge the latest bug fixes into the 12.1 code, hard fork the blocksize to 2MB or whatever, and MOVE FORWARD.
As I said earlier, segwit is far from dead. Segwit is moving forward. Hard forking, less so.
The changes since 0.12.1 are not just bug fixes. There have been numerous optimizations and additional features that overall make Core a better wallet and node software. People can use 0.13.0 and get all of those changes without using segwit. Core has already significantly diverged from the 0.12.x versions; we are almost two major releases ahead as 0.14.0 is coming out in a few months.
Sorry, I may have the versions wrong.
Hard forking is very simple technically, although somewhat problematic logistically. However, in this day and age of rapid communication and the sheer mass of geeks at the ready to handle the task, I believe we can accomplish it in just a few days of pain. Bitcoin has hard forked several times in the past, and it will again in the near future. Everyone just needs to swallow their prides, manage their emotions appropriately, and DO IT. I suspect the BTC price would soar after a successful 2MB blocksize increase hard fork.
Thanks for the dialogue,