Topic: Predict the next 2 years, no take-backsies (Read 9880 times)

July-August 2014: $4,000-7,000 ATH
End of 2014: $2,200-3,300
March-May 2015: $20,000-30,000 ATH
July-August 2015: $12,500-15,000
by end of 2015: $100,000+ ATH
This will be the point where everyone and his dog will own some BTC, the prices will no longer be influenced by miner supply of coins, this will be the leviathan bubble of bitcoin. Driven by speculation within the next year after 2015, it will be between $100,000 to $1,000,000 a coin, and so much hashrate will be churned as a result of this.


At some point more power efficient miners (Drastic peformance improvements) Will come out, the super bubble will deflate to 3-4x times less than its value (like the 2011 bubble when GPU miners got displaced by ASICS), only to reclaim the ATH 1.5 years later and break way past it.

The Vladimir club, reserved for those who hold at least 2100 Bitcoin (0.1% of the total supply of 21M), is named after him. Validimir's fine

True enough.  I have a job until the day I reach my retirement number.  (Note: I am nowhere near 65.)

Well, I tried, anyway. My assumption was that we'd be at the point of second-gen ASICs getting more and more into the hands of "the right kind of miner", ie, someone that mines and holds instead of mines and sells. Someone that is willing to put off instant gratification for a more delayed financial standing. That tends to happen only every year and a half or so, and follows an extended price decline. I think we're close, but this could be a build-up that takes another 6 months to fully develop. It'll be important to not be the weak hands that sell early on in the first couple of upticks in price next time around.

Just keep your day jobs and accumulate and you'll be fine. It could be very rocky for a long while.

Hey, Raize, you might not be that far off.  I think you're only going to miss it by 2-3 months.

If he stood by his convictions, then I'm sure he's on a private yacht in the Mediterranean now

Give that man a prize.  Pretty good prediction for a year and a half out.

How cute.

Wow, yeah, that was a pretty crazy graph/prediction. I still think pirate@40 was behind the price increase of $7-$12 (and subsequent fall) in a relatively short time frame. I think he had someone he was either buying or selling coins for, someone that was never revealed, likely due to their involvement in SR at the time. I think pirate did not originally intend to run a Ponzi, either, but ran afoul of this other person and never got a chance to buy back at a lower price because at that point the price had quit falling and the demand had become too great.

I don't think adam took it seriously neither. Sometimes you jokingly grab reality by her balls without even knowing.

ya.ya.yo!

Nice

I've always been impressed by this post from adam:

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.1026305


Nobody took it seriously, but reality was pretty close to that. Back in those days, $100 was like the moon. $1 price fluctuations were huge buy or sell signals and the talk of the wall observer thread. Granted, $1 change over $5 is a 20% increase.

It's interesting reading through these predictions. Although the predictions were only for the next two years, most of them are very far from what really happend.

While they were optimistic regarding the bitcoin price, they were - as a group - not optimistic enough... so what do we learn from this?

ya.ya.yo!

As we come up on May 25th, I wanted to address my prediction from two years ago. I was off on the $2,000+ valuation, though probably a bit closer in sentiment to what actually has happened over the last two years price-wise since most of these guys only saw increases of tens of dollars or less, which was easy to do since it was only ~$5/coin.

What I really wanted to draw attention to was the the rest of my comment, specifically the part in bold below...


I'm not sure if there's only maybe 100 major miners out there or less, there's definitely thousands of small operations (which I'm glad to see). Also not sure on the miners necessarily having "forced transaction fees" though we did have minimums in many clients. Government regulations are definitely a thing right now. I think the Antminer S2 qualifies as second gen ASIC, though I suppose that's arguable, most people might go solely by die-type.

Also note Vladamir's prediction here...

1st July 2013: $15 - $25
1st July 2014: $75 - $100

At the rate it has been rising over the last month, its up over $1 on what it was a month a go. I see it hitting $8 or more by December. Then it will likely rise to around $10 before stabilizing there for the following few years.

come on....

this is what will happen





 

I think that if and when bitcoin reaches the point where the agents of governments really devote time to specifically target it, it will be too late and its adoption in System D will have irreversibly entrenched it economic life.

I think bitcoin will have its 'Napster' moment the way mp3 sharing did with the RIAA.

This means that the government/banks will have a complete and utter freak out once they realize bitcoin is routing around all their carefully placed restrictions and fees. The curious prodding of three letter agencies aside, the real shoe-drop moment will be when sovereign institutions have outright bans on transfer of money toward bitcoin interests, perhaps with stiff legal penalties.

I'd rather not have this occur, but once anyone of reasonable power fully understands what is going on, the only way to stop the bleeding is to contain the fiat currency from being converted. Hopefully, it will be way too late to really stop anything, as I'd like to see the bitcoin economy go toward full bitcoin-to-bitcoin transactions, and less currency exchange on the periphery.

I think the collapse of the Eurodollar will spur more volume in foreign currencies, and increasingly harsh conditions in the US economy will spur a search for stores of value independent of the dollar.

On a personal note, I've become more involved in iPhone and Android development, so hopefully once I get some cycles to burn, I can devote my time toward furthering bitcoin in the mobile space.

As for price, I expect wide variations with upward trending being the norm. So, a few 2% - 3% spikes as new interest comes in, followed with higher plateaus. I'd also prefer it not to swing up too rapidly, letting the whole ecosystem grow with a nice price 'floor' underneath it.

By next year I expect it to be close to 9 - 10 on a dollar pricing basis, unless Bernanke prints a *lot* more in the form of debt, then the dollar's increasing erosion will multiply that figure considerably.

I think it's very difficult to predict an exact price target for Bitcoin because of the mostly nonlinear nature of price movements in general and the high volatility of Bitcoin in particular. I suppose we are about to enter another bubble phase right now.

Given the uncertain economic situation globally (a catalyst for Bitcoin) with its possible intense effects on monetary policy, prediction of Bitcoin pricing should better be expressed in relation to a relatively supply-inelastic commodity. Using gold as such a commodity I would predict a BTC price of 5-10% POG by mid-2014.

Unless a fundamental design flaw is discovered, I expect that upcoming problems (whether technical or political) will be overcome due to the high motivation of the existing bitcoiners to preserve their investment.