Topic: Predict the next 2 years, no take-backsies - page 3. (Read 9880 times)

To me, here's what makes it like Steorn: a person is claiming to have made an invention that requires a new physics, and refuses to show unambiguously that it works (or how it works) although it would be within his power to do so. In the case of nuclear power, the new physics was developed first, and proven in unambiguous experiments, and then the engineers set to work to harness it.

But this is somewhat off the topic, I think.

As far as Bitcoin as a market: I do not think that Bitcoin will fall below $2/coin again. I also think there will be some rising price as the block reward cut approaches, followed by a slight price slip once it occurs (in typical buy on rumor/sell on news fashion).

As far as economies in general (including the Bitcoin economy): I think two years is not long enough for Bitcoin to become the primary mode of exchange in anything but a community specifically engineered to use it (e.g. the seasteading stuff miscreanity mentioned, if those projects actually get off the ground). Similarly, I can't take theories of "bitcoin outlawed" or "USD collapses" or similar seriously in the context of a 2 year timescale; unsustainable things are being done, but we are a long way from the point where they can no longer be propped up civilly.

Frankly from what is out there right now, this looks no more credible then Steorn (which claimed to be a first-order perpetuum mobile and turned out to be a lot of hot air and magnet superstition).

I mean, good on them if they managed it, but I have serious doubts.

I think we'll stagnate around $5 for the remainder of the year, with a small bubble around July 4th.  Another bubble will occur around December 31st, this one being much bigger.  Once that deflates, it'lll settle around $10 and slowly grow from there.  Most likely hitting the $12-$15 range 2 years from today.

That or it will be worthless tomorrow.  Probably one of the two.

I think a lot of people miscalculate the small number of people that currently participate in this economy - and under estimate the effect that the rest of the world will have on the value of Bitcoin. When the network effect and understood benefits of Bitcoin reach the ends of the earth, their value will be un-fucking believably immense.

I think the easy availability of Bitcoin in the USA coming in 2012 and the reduction of inflation will cause another media hype that will be sufficient to begin the phase of global awareness. These new Bitcoiners will cause another volatile exchange rate for the rest of us during 2013. This will also force the development of more services and applications.

By 2014, I think merchants will have enough understanding about Bitcoin and trust in its store of value to begin adoption and we will start to see an increase in acceptability.

Price charts will continue to oscillate to the completion of orders placed in asks and bids with a corresponding change in volumes recorded.

$7.50 before september, then either down to $5 or up to $10 after december
$7 in one years time.
$10 before september 2013, then either $7.50 or $15 by december 2013
$11 in two years time.

In the next 2 years:

1. Supersonic airlines will not revive.
2. There will not be any serious breakthrough in fusion power.
3. Cellphone-like devices will not be widely implanted into human bodies.

Next 2 years:  between $3 and $7.

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Bitcoin will become more difficult to use within the EU & US (also many other western nations) due to exchange restrictions.

Bitcoin's amplifying effect will prove a boon to developing/emerging economies worldwide, allowing them to erode developed nations' dominance. More economic systems will unofficially begin to favor bitcoins as a unit base over their own domestic currencies, relying on reserves of fiat and/or gold primarily to conduct trade with developed countries that fight Bitcoin.

Underground usage of Bitcoin will be boosted by interface simplification and more reliable & robust backup/storage methods. Meshnets will allow continued, though punishable, Bitcoin usage even within restrictive environments such as the EU & US.

More alternatives like Namecoin/Dot-Bit will attach to the Bitcoin network via shared mining, providing a "lateral reserve" system of sorts. Think of Facebook Credits hitching along like NMC - proprietary aspects may be introduced in alternative chains this way while Bitcoin remains the foundation. The first of these could be a full-fledged voting system as early as 2013. Credit systems (Fractional Reserve, Hawala/referral, or new styles) may develop based on any of the blockchains.

Seasteading efforts are likely to adopt Bitcoin as a secondary currency, possibly with the launch of Blueseed (estimated to be launched late 2013 to 2014).

BTC:
BTC increase in value for 2012 will average out at 25-32% - until December when the block reward drops.

With some portion of 3600 BTC fewer hitting the markets each day the rate will rapidly change.

This will create a short-term bubble in early 2013 which will later crash. Overall 2013 will have BTC grow in value by around 50% or double 2012.

Before the bubble crashes it will spawn another media blitz and attention will be brought to all the VCs looking to get into BTC - it is among other things the entrance of these big boys that drive 2013 growth.

By early 2014 bitcoin will be used regularly in some real world business.

However the fact that BTC is still for relatively rich and geeky people with smart phones and or computers will limit growth.

Less certain real world predictions:
Greece will likely default before 2013 is out or even in the coming months. Obama looses to Romney since Romney is prettier, but "good-guy movements" grow in power and record numbers will register with independent parties or not vote.

This could start huge banking failures around the world once more in 2012 with untold consequences. If this does NOT happen oil price will climb higher than 130$/barrel and as time goes on the likelihood of another financial crisis increases.

With Romney in power the US becomes as fascist as ever and cold war style incursions over oil fields even with another 2nd world country such as China are likely - for instance with drones against drones or hackers.
Sometime before July/2014.

After a 10 year lull global warming picks up speed a bit between 2010 and 2014, methane plumes, dirty coal, fracking and tar sands play part in this.
Nothing too drastic though, just more crazy weather.

China/India growth slows. China growth in 2014 will be around 5%.