Predict the next 2 years, no take-backsies - page 2.

Realpra

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Quote from: ?? on ??

Is anyone taking care of BIP 33? Most of these predictions (mine included) seem to assume that there won't be any show-stoppers regarding scalability. But if Satoshidice is currently adding 100MB to the blockchain per month, stick on some growth and some other businesses also pulling a lot of traffic, and it could be as much as 50GB before the end of this year. We can't rely on Moore's Law to magically fix everything if some aspects of Bitcoin are expected to grow much faster than 2x per ~18 months.

It is my understanding that all of the BTC scalability problems can be solved with relatively uncontroversial updates:

1. 10^15 units -> Protocol can be updated so that satoshi is no longer the smallest unit. No one should disagree to this.

2. Block size -> Older spent transactions can be deleted PLUS today the chain is being spammed with fee less transactions - once we have just 1/10000 part fees most of that will be taken care of.

3. 51% attacks -> Client will likely be updated with an IP-filter at some point and then people can quickly filter out disruptive players, maybe even propagating their block-list through the network.

I think my BTC value prediction for 2012 is already failing, the value is rising TOO rapidly! Of course it might be a bubble or slow down again...
(Glad I bought a bunch at 5.06)

Anyways I'm long so it's fine.

waspoza

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Activity: 602

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Firstbits: 1waspoza

Quote from: doobadoo on June 06, 2012, 03:21:04 PM

Satoshi returns, and wants to know what the hell Gavin did to his client. Turns out he was doing time in a Philipeano jail for solicitation of an underage prostitute. Yet somehow served his sentence as Satoshi, keepin his real ID an ongoing mystery.

Lol'd!

doobadoo

sr. member

Activity: 364

Merit: 250

Next 2 years:

Romney becomes the next president of the US. Pursues a policy very similar to Obama...
Or Obama wins and does the same.

Additional government reports come out linking Bitcoin to illegal activities.

Government regulatory agencies push AML/KYC requirements.

Mt Gox gets hacked, again.

Another bitcoin trading service gets hacked. All coins lost despite promises to investigate and return a portion of funds.

Satoshi returns, and wants to know what the hell Gavin did to his client. Turns out he was doing time in a Philipeano jail for solicitation of an underage prostitute. Yet somehow served his sentence as Satoshi, keepin his real ID an ongoing mystery.

DEA raids the servers of SilkRoad after receiving an anonymous tip from a disgruntled employee who got ripped by Tony97 or whatever his handle was. The raid does not net DPR, who relaunches the site quickly and continues to evade Interpol, and is believed to be hiding in Iceland or Sweden. Later is elected to the European parliament as a member of the Pirate Party.

Mageant

legendary

Activity: 1145

Merit: 1001

Quote from: nimda on June 06, 2012, 02:28:04 PM

Quote

The goverment starts preparing the people for official First Contact with Extraterrestials by the end of this year.

Put your money where your mouth is Grin

Bet in my sig

I already did. I created that bet.
http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=25

nimda

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Activity: 784

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0xFB0D8D1534241423

Quote

The goverment starts preparing the people for official First Contact with Extraterrestials by the end of this year.

Put your money where your mouth is Grin

Bet in my sig

cytokine

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Activity: 224

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Quote from: ?? on ??

Is anyone taking care of BIP 33? Most of these predictions (mine included) seem to assume that there won't be any show-stoppers regarding scalability. But if Satoshidice is currently adding 100MB to the blockchain per month, stick on some growth and some other businesses also pulling a lot of traffic, and it could be as much as 50GB before the end of this year. We can't rely on Moore's Law to magically fix everything if some aspects of Bitcoin are expected to grow much faster than 2x per ~18 months.

This also concerns me... I hadn't heard of BIP 33 yet, thanks for the heads up.

BTW found it here.

ArticMine

legendary

Activity: 2282

Merit: 1050

Monero Core Team

I do agree that from a technical point of view Bitcoin does correspond to M0 or at best Monetary Base; however its use on the other hand does not. Take Bitcoinica for example. We all know that they had a hot wallet with 20% of their BTC reserves that was stolen and a cold wallet with 80% that was not. The BTC reserves correspond to M0. But what about the USD reserves? Were they held in wads of US $100 bills under Zhou Tong's mattress? Not likely, they were more likely on deposit with one or more financial institutions forming part of M1 or even broader money. There is a fundamental asymmetry here.

This reality is true for individuals and business alike. If they hold BTC and fiat, the BTC is for the most part in a wallet forming part of M0 while the fiat on the other hand is on deposit with one or more financial institutions forming part of M1 or broader. If one considers payments we have a similar situation. Bitcoin is not just a replacement for cash (M0) but for debit cards, PayPal, credit cards etc. Again M1 or broader.

ArticMine

legendary

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Merit: 1050

Monero Core Team

GNU / Linux has about 1% market share on the desktop by some of the most conservative estimates. http://marketshare.hitslink.com/operating-system-market-share.aspx?. For Bitcoin to reach 1% market share one BTC would be worth approx !0,000 USD. How to get this figure:

World M1 money supply value approx 21,000,000,000,000 USD. http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1231778551.php Maximum number of BTC 21,000,000. Purchasing power of 1 BTC for 100% market share. 1,000,000 USD 1% of 1,000,000 USD equals 10,000 USD.

ineededausername

hero member

Activity: 784

Merit: 1000

bitcoin hundred-aire

Quote from: Mageant on May 25, 2012, 03:14:23 PM

BTC:
BTC will approximately double in value until December this year.

Real world predictions:
Ron Paul wins the Republican Nomination. Goes on to win against Obama in November thus becoming the next president.

Mass arrests of thousands of criminals within the government, banks and other high-level positions occur within the next few weeks/months. This includes many people from former administrations. The truth comes out how these people have misused the financial system for their gains and have committed many false flag attacks, inlcuding 9/11, and many other atrocities. The media finally starts reporting the truth, including the real history of the Earth and the real, spiritual nature of the Universe.

New energy breakthroughs in the next few months signal the the way for cheap, clean energy for all.

The goverment starts preparing the people for official First Contact with Extraterrestials by the end of this year.

On December 21st, 2012 the sun's radiation signature makes a quantum leap changing physical reality in the solar system. The world becomes much more harmonious, peaceful and joyful. People develop psychic powers. Earth starts to become a paradise of natural beauty.

I thought you were trolling with those real world predictions but then I read your other posts. O.o

adamstgBit

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Activity: 1904

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Trusted Bitcoiner

Quote from: Mageant on May 25, 2012, 03:14:23 PM

BTC:
BTC will approximately double in value until December this year.

~~Real~~ Fantasy world predictions:
Ron Paul wins the Republican Nomination. Goes on to win against Obama in November thus becoming the next president.

Mass arrests of thousands of criminals within the government, banks and other high-level positions occur within the next few weeks/months. This includes many people from former administrations. The truth comes out how these people have misused the financial system for their gains and have committed many false flag attacks, inlcuding 9/11, and many other atrocities. The media finally starts reporting the truth, including the real history of the Earth and the real, spiritual nature of the Universe.

New energy breakthroughs in the next few months signal the the way for cheap, clean energy for all.

The goverment starts preparing the people for official First Contact with Extraterrestials by the end of this year.

On December 21st, 2012 the sun's radiation signature makes a quantum leap changing physical reality in the solar system. The world becomes much more harmonious, peaceful and joyful. People develop psychic powers. Earth starts to become a paradise of natural beauty.

FTFY

Mageant

legendary

Activity: 1145

Merit: 1001

BTC:
BTC will approximately double in value until December this year.

Real world predictions:
Ron Paul wins the Republican Nomination. Goes on to win against Obama in November thus becoming the next president.

Mass arrests of thousands of criminals within the government, banks and other high-level positions occur within the next few weeks/months. This includes many people from former administrations. The truth comes out how these people have misused the financial system for their gains and have committed many false flag attacks, inlcuding 9/11, and many other atrocities. The media finally starts reporting the truth, including the real history of the Earth and the real, spiritual nature of the Universe.

New energy breakthroughs in the next few months signal the the way for cheap, clean energy for all.

The goverment starts preparing the people for official First Contact with Extraterrestials by the end of this year.

On December 21st, 2012 the sun's radiation signature makes a quantum leap changing physical reality in the solar system. The world becomes much more harmonious, peaceful and joyful. People develop psychic powers. Earth starts to become a paradise of natural beauty.

Qoheleth

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Spurn wild goose chases. Seek that which endures.

Quote from: ribuck on May 25, 2012, 10:12:51 AM

Quote from: Qoheleth on May 23, 2012, 04:47:34 PM

I do not think that Bitcoin will fall below $2/coin again.

I raise you to "Bitcoin will not fall below $4/coin."

I hope you're right, but a lot can happen in two years. A one-dollar price fluctuation would have been nothing strange just a few months ago, and I'm not quite convinced we've left volatility behind.

Quote from: Raize on May 25, 2012, 09:43:27 AM

May 2014: ~$2200/coin

I expect Bitcoin to be handling about 1% of World GDP by that time and the above price represents that.

I could see this happening in ten years, depending on how things go, but I can't see it happening in two.

In fact, I'm sure enough about it that I'd propose a futures contract on the matter if I knew I could even find you two years from now Wink

ribuck

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Quote from: Qoheleth on May 23, 2012, 04:47:34 PM

I do not think that Bitcoin will fall below $2/coin again.

I raise you to "Bitcoin will not fall below $4/coin."

Raize

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Activity: 1419

Merit: 1015

May 2014: ~$2200/coin

I expect Bitcoin to be handling about 1% of World GDP by that time and the above price represents that. Difficulty will have also increased to match that. We'll be seeing second-generation dedicated ASICs coming out around this time. The people mining won't be consumers and there will be only maybe a hundred major players, most of which have government regulations to deal with and forced transaction fees to collect, however the expenses will be low.

mem

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Herp Derp PTY LTD

Quote from: bitsire on May 24, 2012, 05:34:56 PM

Quote from: ?? on ??

Actually, if you take into account that Android is in fact built
on top of Linux, one could make a case that it's also gained a
fairly decent foothold with everyday people

Good point

For the record, I've been using Linux since Redhat 5.2. Your Linux reference just reminded me of the major hype around the Linux desktop back then, and how it is still around and improving but never really took off the way people thought it would (i.e. Windoze killer).

As for Bitcoin price, IMHO I see the Bitcoin value going higher, MUCH higher due to all the uncertainties regarding fiat currencies, and for the simple reason that as governments around the world become more and more totalitarian, more and more people are going to be looking for ways to hide their wealth and purchases from the tax man Grin

Hey another 5.2 guy Cheesy

I got it with with PowerPC as a cover disk, feel in love, installed Enlightenment with a funky theme and never looked back.

Never made the impact on the desktop we were hoping for, but I have made a career out of being a linux SysAdmin and I can say it is definitely a success in the server market.

bitsire

full member

Activity: 223

Merit: 100

Quote from: ?? on ??

Actually, if you take into account that Android is in fact built
on top of Linux, one could make a case that it's also gained a
fairly decent foothold with everyday people

Good point

For the record, I've been using Linux since Redhat 5.2. Your Linux reference just reminded me of the major hype around the Linux desktop back then, and how it is still around and improving but never really took off the way people thought it would (i.e. Windoze killer).

As for Bitcoin price, IMHO I see the Bitcoin value going higher, MUCH higher due to all the uncertainties regarding fiat currencies, and for the simple reason that as governments around the world become more and more totalitarian, more and more people are going to be looking for ways to hide their wealth and purchases from the tax man Grin

bitsire

full member

Activity: 223

Merit: 100

Quote from: Vladimir on May 24, 2012, 05:03:36 PM

Who cares about desktop?

Back in around 2005 all you heard about is how Linux would eventually gain wide acceptance in the desktop space. It didn't. In fact, quite the opposite - now the mantra is "no desktop at all, everything on the cloud".

So with the Linux desktop analogy, I'm just saying that I sure hope Bitcoin does NOT end up like the Linux desktop where years later it is still around and going strong, yet somehow has still not managed to gain widespread acceptance.

Vladimir

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-

Who cares about desktop?

bitsire

full member

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Quote from: ?? on ??

Let me ask you this: how long did it take for Linux, a product that was
both free and miles ahead of the competition in the server space to
actually gain anything close to a decent foothold in said space ?

Let's just hope it doesn't end up like the Linux desktop which never really took off, at least not to the extent people were predicting in the mid 2000s.

Vladimir

hero member

Activity: 812

Merit: 1001

-

31st of Dec 2013, 1 BTC is above 500$.

Topic: Predict the next 2 years, no take-backsies - page 2. (Read 9880 times)