it r on target chaps 
just sold a third of my gold to buy bitcoin because of this thread
Topic: [prediction] Next spike $560,000 14 {<-oops!} months from now (2017 Update!) - page 19. (Read 71521 times)
December 02, 2014, 06:00:24 PM
just sold a third of my gold to buy bitcoin because of this thread
December 02, 2014, 05:50:11 PM
it r on target chaps
December 02, 2014, 05:48:15 PM
Are you still sure this is going to happen? If so, within 12 months, we're all going to be rich!
Do you think I should buy now, or is it possible for price to go lower?
Do you think I should buy now, or is it possible for price to go lower?
November 17, 2014, 07:54:56 AM
I wish. But this will never happy. I bet you my left nut.
We might never see $1000 again let alone half a million.
We might never see $1000 again let alone half a million.
your sayin' that if bitcoin rises over $ 5000 you will chop it off ?
tarantino style?
November 17, 2014, 07:20:34 AM
I wish. But this will never happy. I bet you my left nut.
We might never see $1000 again let alone half a million.
We might never see $1000 again let alone half a million.
November 17, 2014, 07:10:57 AM
... ,the common man still have no reason to use bitcoin at the moment ....
many travellers use it and some people for remittance. on top services like ChangeTip and purse.io make it attractive for the average joe
Those people who uses them falls under enthusiast .
In both those cases(travelling and money remittance) bitcoin added layers of complexity and cost(mainly when dealing with fiat conversion) ,two thing that are working against bitcoin for public adoption.In order for the average to want bitcoin those two hurdles need to be eliminated or bitcoin need to offer something that makes the efforts worth it.
November 17, 2014, 05:11:49 AM
... ,the common man still have no reason to use bitcoin at the moment ....
many travellers use it and some people for remittance. on top services like ChangeTip and purse.io make it attractive for the average joe
November 17, 2014, 04:22:48 AM
My main mistake with bitcoin when reading about it in 2008/2009 was thinking the common man would not have reason to use it this half of the century.
Once it became worth $1 it was apparent that this assumption was incorrect because the speculation cycle had kicked into effect.
You're kinda correct ,the common man still have no reason to use bitcoin at the moment and were a zero factor in the rise of bitcoin price.The people are driving bitcoin be it speculators or enthusiast are a very far cry the average joes as it comes.
November 16, 2014, 08:39:03 PM
That's how I like charts: mind boggling 
it would be truly nice if financial assets prices follow simple mathematical rules like laws of gravity determining our planet rotation around the Sun, but they are not.
There is no law that says that we will stay on a log trend, hence virtually any price is possible, including both close to a 1mil and zero.
So far, my BTC investment (last 12 mo) was a disappointment, it is just a simple fact.
As an example, nobody in my family has any interest in bitcoin despite me constantly prodding them about it for a year.
Maybe it just does not have any appeal for a majority of the population.
I have been following cryptocurrencies since I was in high school in the late 90s (Tim May was an influence, as was Orlin Grabbe, who most people here have not heard of).
My main mistake with bitcoin when reading about it in 2008/2009 was thinking the common man would not have reason to use it this half of the century.
My main mistake with bitcoin when reading about it in 2008/2009 was thinking the common man would not have reason to use it this half of the century.
Perhaps, you were partially right as I don't see any hockey stick increase in mass interest.
November 16, 2014, 02:42:04 PM
I could even live with the lowest exchange rate from both curves at each point in time
edit: @sgbett
according to the "red scenario" it could take about 8 months more than in your prediction to reach 560k
edit: @sgbett
according to the "red scenario" it could take about 8 months more than in your prediction to reach 560k
November 16, 2014, 02:33:34 PM
mind boggling 
November 16, 2014, 02:21:37 PM
My main mistake with bitcoin when reading about it in 2008/2009 was thinking the common man would not have reason to use it this half of the century.
I made the same mistake around the same time as you. I thought it would never catch on, although I don't blame myself too much because I since heard there were about five precursors to bitcoin that did not catch on. Perhaps in a few years today's prices will seem like bargain basement prices.
November 16, 2014, 02:06:34 PM
I have been following cryptocurrencies since I was in high school in the late 90s (Tim May was an influence, as was Orlin Grabbe, who most people here have not heard of).
My main mistake with bitcoin when reading about it in 2008/2009 was thinking the common man would not have reason to use it this half of the century.
Once it became worth $1 it was apparent that this assumption was incorrect because the speculation cycle had kicked into effect. I underestimated the ability of bitcoin to be valued at even 1 cent. After this moment it was off to the races.
Now we are in the seeding stage and it is possible we will have to wait for halvings for intense growth -- that is, depending on how much speculation will be going on, and how these thinly traded markets are manipulated.
Many currently underestimate the ability of bitcoin to be valued at $1,000 or $10,000. In time they too will come to see the error of their ways.
My main mistake with bitcoin when reading about it in 2008/2009 was thinking the common man would not have reason to use it this half of the century.
Once it became worth $1 it was apparent that this assumption was incorrect because the speculation cycle had kicked into effect. I underestimated the ability of bitcoin to be valued at even 1 cent. After this moment it was off to the races.
Now we are in the seeding stage and it is possible we will have to wait for halvings for intense growth -- that is, depending on how much speculation will be going on, and how these thinly traded markets are manipulated.
Many currently underestimate the ability of bitcoin to be valued at $1,000 or $10,000. In time they too will come to see the error of their ways.
November 16, 2014, 01:18:05 PM
That's how I like charts: mind boggling
November 16, 2014, 12:19:34 PM
to get a grasp of how it could look like, i projected 2 possible scenario's on the recent low of 275 USD
Scenario 1 (green): long consolidation phase; the same as after the 2011 bubble folowed by the 2 bubbles of 2013
scenario 2 (red): we are on the verge of a new massive bubble like in 2011; followed by the same consolidation and 2 bubbles of 2013
the numbers are mind boggling
linear chart:
log chart:
Scenario 1 (green): long consolidation phase; the same as after the 2011 bubble folowed by the 2 bubbles of 2013
scenario 2 (red): we are on the verge of a new massive bubble like in 2011; followed by the same consolidation and 2 bubbles of 2013
the numbers are mind boggling
linear chart:
log chart:
November 15, 2014, 07:19:48 PM
Only 12 months left then. But I would be happy if the price went up to even $10k 
November 15, 2014, 06:47:25 PM
The price now is about right, in my opinion. And maybe it will keep appreciating at something like an order of magnitude per year for a while. I can't see a case for dramatic volatility increase.
The reason is this: Most people - the vast, vast majority - are stupid and rightly lack confidence in their own abilities. It is too dangerous to personally secure your coins for the average person. Once it becomes possible to buy in without the risk of losing your money through negligence or hardware error, such as Circle or the ETF or something of that nature, it will become possible for far more people to hop on the wagon than currently. November 15, 2014, 05:21:43 PM
I will just let it drop to 250 again, then buy all the coins, to hold them till 560k.
November 15, 2014, 05:00:42 PM
The price now is about right, in my opinion. And maybe it will keep appreciating at something like an order of magnitude per year for a while. I can't see a case for dramatic volatility increase.
The reason is this: Most people - the vast, vast majority - are stupid and rightly lack confidence in their own abilities. It is too dangerous to personally secure your coins for the average person. Once it becomes possible to buy in without the risk of losing your money through negligence or hardware error, such as Circle or the ETF or something of that nature, it will become possible for far more people to hop on the wagon than currently.I see it more as an application of the 100th monkey effect
Quote
The hundredth monkey effect is a studied phenomenon[1] in which a new behavior or idea is claimed to spread rapidly by unexplained means from one group to all related groups once a critical number of members of one group exhibit the new behavior or acknowledge the new idea.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hundredth_monkey_effectThe notion of tipping point as described by Malcom Gladwell also applies.
Finally, from an economic standpoint, the prospect of currency speculative attacks is a very likely scenario http://nakamotoinstitute.org/mempool/speculative-attack/
Of course at the bottom of all of this is the inherent greed in humans. If it continues appreciating an order of magnitude per year for only one or two more year then the "trend" will be too strong for even the most common man to ignore.
This explains why it is not appreciating this year...or not?
That is simply because of the hype cycle and bunch of other dynamics related to mining and what not. Perfectly normal.
We are still at the beginning of the adoption s-curve. The point where we go vertical is what I am referring to.
November 15, 2014, 04:27:40 PM
The price now is about right, in my opinion. And maybe it will keep appreciating at something like an order of magnitude per year for a while. I can't see a case for dramatic volatility increase.
The reason is this: Most people - the vast, vast majority - are stupid and rightly lack confidence in their own abilities. It is too dangerous to personally secure your coins for the average person. Once it becomes possible to buy in without the risk of losing your money through negligence or hardware error, such as Circle or the ETF or something of that nature, it will become possible for far more people to hop on the wagon than currently.I see it more as an application of the 100th monkey effect
Quote
The hundredth monkey effect is a studied phenomenon[1] in which a new behavior or idea is claimed to spread rapidly by unexplained means from one group to all related groups once a critical number of members of one group exhibit the new behavior or acknowledge the new idea.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hundredth_monkey_effectThe notion of tipping point as described by Malcom Gladwell also applies.
Finally, from an economic standpoint, the prospect of currency speculative attacks is a very likely scenario http://nakamotoinstitute.org/mempool/speculative-attack/
Of course at the bottom of all of this is the inherent greed in humans. If it continues appreciating an order of magnitude per year for only one or two more year then the "trend" will be too strong for even the most common man to ignore.
This explains why it is not appreciating this year...or not?
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