Topic: [prediction] Next spike $560,000 14 {<-oops!} months from now (2017 Update!) - page 2. (Read 71521 times)

To be clear thread still relevant to BCH

After the 2011 bubble   ($31)   it corrected to ~2 ,  that means 7%
After the 2013 bubble ($1163) it corrected to 156, that means 13%
After upcoming bubble ($ ?) it should correct to ~25%
If it shoots to ~30k this month, correction should be in the $ 7500 range, but I doubt it will drop that much.
Maybe there will not be a next bubble at all !
Time will tell. Just HODL.

It's like LN  - 14 months from now ..

Would it be real ?

You are making me dreaming, really ! However I doubt it will go that high so quickly. For me we will pass hardly the 4000$ by the next month, and then we will stagnate for some time.

It may go supra-exponential without the retreat this time. I know this is famous last words but this time is different. Willy bot isnt out and about manipulating the market and Mtgox shouldnt be happening again we would hope. These two alone were catalysts in the crash last time i beleive so maybe moonwards is real this time

is this thing fixing to do a 2013 repeat?
If so, then we are about to go supra-exponential to $20-25K within 2-3 mo, then retreat to 5-6K.
I am not seriously predicting this, but longer term charts are going vertical.

LOL yup.  Funny how that works.


Also, methinks John McAfee read this thread.  Hi John! Big fan!

This thread is gentlemen for sure.... 
I will look forward to see it progress until we are smoking cigars on the moon and then driving lambos on the Mars lol 

Great thread. Now we sit back and watch it all unfold while hodling.

The framework is different if you say.. I put 10% in bitcoin.. but most of it is in alts...   or if you say, I put 10% in bitcoin.. two different stories.

o.k.  you did not put 10% in bitcoin.. because you put some other percentage in bitcoin, perhaps 4% in bitcoin and 6% in alts... That plan might still work out for you, but you are contradicting your own statement if you are asserting that you put 10% in bitcoin when you did not.

The wrong thing I did was not to buy more back in 2015. By that time I have bought my first bitcoin, to pay for a storage cloud which accepted it. Didn't bought before 2015 because there was no thing I wanted to buy with it.

Since the beggining I wanted it to be a way of paying things and buy stuff without depending on fiat and banks. Finally is happening now with massive adoption in Japan and research in blockchain going on.

But now I'm sad that I had not bought more before, I would be able to have 10x more now. And the satoshis I spend buying the storage would be more valuable now too.

Its a good plan to only have small exposure (what you can afford to lose rule). The problem I have found is that you end up having to sell to rebalance, then looking back and wishing you hadn't

It's really hard to get rich holding bitcoin if you do the right thing Funny thing is its really easy to do OK with bitcoin even if you do the wrong thing repeatedly lol.

I had put 10% of my assets in bitcoin and altcoins.

I remember reading an article were some guy (a director of paypal, if I'm not mistaken) said to put 1% in bitcoins, just to be safe. He was predicting a rise to 1 million in ten years. I doubted it at the time, but seeing the news now about possible adoption by governments and financial institutions I would not doubt it anymore.

But I put 10%. I don't want to risk more than that. Most of it are on altcoins, tough, due to my recent experiments with bittrex (which is a new thing for me).

Thankyou. I thought I'd go back to my roots. All the scaling chatter is so tiresome, and well I believed in bitcoin back then against all odds so I thought to myself, what's changed? The answer I came up with was "nothing". I'd just got so complacent with the steady adoption, progress, continued steady rise that when the threat of big business taking over reared its head (whoever that may be!) I got scared.

Now I'm chill again. The market will always win

Stage 1 incoming. For sure!

The longer it takes, the less supply there is when people start running for the (fiat) exits.


There is no timescale, because I was way way out and as explained in the OP its not so much a priced prediction thread. You can point and laugh at how wrong I was with the specifics, but as I said in the very first post. The figures *aren't* right, neither is the timescale, its the idea that the magnitude of the moves will be unprecedented, and what that does to you personally as you try to HODL through it. As Biodom points out its a somewhat irreverent look at things, but don't let that fool you into thinking there isn't something in it.

I've fretted over sub cent moves back in the day, I've seen it break $1k and then lose 90% of its value, I predicted fairly accurately the size of the drop from the gox high (timescale was too short again). If I only had the conviction to wait, FOMO means I bought back in way too early. Many times!

Once I realised the timing was off, I made a followup post to this one here... https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/market-cycles-why-560k-might-be-wrong-932059 check it out you'll see something quite uncanny.

The recent run up to 3k, I still believe, is only the mini-run before the actual big move starts. Biodom has it right, this is the shakeout, and its strong. I'm a bitcoin maximalist and believe strongly what I say, and even I am only 60% in BTC now (7% alts, 33% cash). It's the prudent thing to do. When you've been in bitcoin for a long time you sacrifice maximum profit to hedge risk. If it goes to a million overnight do I lament what I could have had, or rejoice in what I got.

Given the length of time it was from the market bottom to when this 3k run happened I'd expect the real big move is going to also be multi year. Will probably hit 6 figures. If it does that imagine the balls you are going to need to hold a crash back down to $20k (not to mention not selling out on the way up). Imagine the chaos that kind of wealth distribution will cause. That's what this thread is about. The unreality of it all.


Strong ACK!

I agree, I think we are in the middle of a situation that will change the future of bitcoin forever, I think in a few years we will all remember the days when bitcoin could be gotten by the low amount of 2500 dollars, after this I think we are going to see an explosion of investment in bitcoin.

Where's the time scale on that chart? Substituting "much ignore" for the timescale makes the whole thing rather vague. Nobody can criticise you if Bitcoin hasn't hit $1100000 by any particular time.

i also have the feeling this is the last major shakeout and coins will never be this cheap again after 1st august
whales are happy to buy your btc for $2.5k now because they know its going to 10k
just a matter of time

I have a feeling that stuff around scaling will be the last chance to, maybe, get some discount, however unlikely.
Barring this, the significant entry of large funds is getting more and more likely and with this, eventual move of the whole crypto complex into trillions.

$1 tril with 50% to btc is about 30K/btc (could be more than 50%, of course).
That's stage 1.
The rest is to be continued, but I always appeciate this irreverent thread.

Alas, I no longer have the original spreadsheet, hence the fuzzy screenshot edit

This is best I could do...

Log scale pls - at least on x axis (price) - Reason: I cannot see myself below the red quote-arrow, despite I think I'm tall enough.

Tx a lot