Wow! Only 3 months left till I am one of the richest people on planet earth! 
It's gonna be one sweet ass Christmas. I'm really looking forward to it.
Topic: [prediction] Next spike $560,000 14 {<-oops!} months from now (2017 Update!) - page 8. (Read 71521 times)
August 24, 2015, 05:17:58 PM
It's gonna be one sweet ass Christmas. I'm really looking forward to it.
August 24, 2015, 05:16:25 PM
August 23, 2015, 07:01:43 AM
Wow! Only 3 months left till I am one of the richest people on planet earth!
August 23, 2015, 03:39:44 AM
I am wondering if this chart will also hold relevance for Monero and any other successful 2.0 cryptos going forward.
Make no mistake, I am still following the logic and patterns behind this prediction even if the timing wasn't quite accurate. There's something compelling and logical about the way this would go down, and I still hear sgbett's words which I think will prove true in retrospect, "how else could it possibly happen?"
sgbett, I have no idea how you wouldn't have heard of Monero by now but I humbly suggest you look into it.
Make no mistake, I am still following the logic and patterns behind this prediction even if the timing wasn't quite accurate. There's something compelling and logical about the way this would go down, and I still hear sgbett's words which I think will prove true in retrospect, "how else could it possibly happen?"
sgbett, I have no idea how you wouldn't have heard of Monero by now but I humbly suggest you look into it.
I have heard of it. It's interesting don't know if it's a bitcoin killer. Or if the two would co-exist.
I think the future of crypto will be mostly affected by how the world economy unfolds. The markets look shaky. Global banks running out of options? Or maybe everything will blow over and crypto will remain niche for decades...
August 22, 2015, 04:07:15 PM
It is deeply concerning that the Bitcoin community has failed to address the technical scalability issues.
With everything else lining up, every concrete measure that should have addressed scalability became the target of a social/political fight. And it doesn't look like the community is getting past the fight to actually do something about it.
In fact it looks like the fight is being deliberately orchestrated and carefully maintained. This bodes ill. None of the stuff that's getting ready to work will matter if scaling hasn't already happened.
With everything else lining up, every concrete measure that should have addressed scalability became the target of a social/political fight. And it doesn't look like the community is getting past the fight to actually do something about it.
In fact it looks like the fight is being deliberately orchestrated and carefully maintained. This bodes ill. None of the stuff that's getting ready to work will matter if scaling hasn't already happened.
Please. You really are the go-to guy for FUD based on technical issues, are you not, Cryddit Little? Check this guy's post history everybody.
August 22, 2015, 02:52:51 PM
It is deeply concerning that the Bitcoin community has failed to address the technical scalability issues.
With everything else lining up, every concrete measure that should have addressed scalability became the target of a social/political fight. And it doesn't look like the community is getting past the fight to actually do something about it.
In fact it looks like the fight is being deliberately orchestrated and carefully maintained. This bodes ill. None of the stuff that's getting ready to work will matter if scaling hasn't already happened.
With everything else lining up, every concrete measure that should have addressed scalability became the target of a social/political fight. And it doesn't look like the community is getting past the fight to actually do something about it.
In fact it looks like the fight is being deliberately orchestrated and carefully maintained. This bodes ill. None of the stuff that's getting ready to work will matter if scaling hasn't already happened.
August 22, 2015, 01:49:06 PM
I am wondering if this chart will also hold relevance for Monero and any other successful 2.0 cryptos going forward.
Make no mistake, I am still following the logic and patterns behind this prediction even if the timing wasn't quite accurate. There's something compelling and logical about the way this would go down, and I still hear sgbett's words which I think will prove true in retrospect, "how else could it possibly happen?"
sgbett, I have no idea how you wouldn't have heard of Monero by now but I humbly suggest you look into it.
Make no mistake, I am still following the logic and patterns behind this prediction even if the timing wasn't quite accurate. There's something compelling and logical about the way this would go down, and I still hear sgbett's words which I think will prove true in retrospect, "how else could it possibly happen?"
sgbett, I have no idea how you wouldn't have heard of Monero by now but I humbly suggest you look into it.
July 05, 2015, 09:51:33 PM
I'm just getting this overwhelming feeling that things are ready to move - and something out in the rest of the world, like this vote in Greece or something, is going to provide the impetus for a big spike setting off the next cycle.
It was bound to happen eventually. The criminal system of world debt slavery and the endless printing of fake money is starting to unravel. Bitcoin will do extremely well during this critical phase.
You should all be getting as much BTC as you possibly can
July 05, 2015, 01:48:45 PM
I have a feeling that the current bottom is over.
There has been a very long period of things falling into place, slowly, in many different areas. Many legal, perceptual, and technological obstacles have been removed. Other obstacles that previously appeared to be very serious threats to long-term viability now are subject to strategies that will allow them to be overcome.
With Silk Road out of business, it's starting to be the case that I can convince people there exist non-criminal, non-dope-related reasons to have Bitcoin. With regulators moving on the wreckage of Mt.Gox, it looks like there's going to be a legal framework that seeks and punishes fraudsters, and that's damned important when people are deciding what to put their money into.
Then you've got investors starting to notice Bitcoin rallies fairly reliably on economic bad news from other parts of the economy and waking up to the idea that it makes a really nice hedge investment to round out a portfolio that is otherwise too exposed to financial-industry risk. You've got investment infrastructure popping up that lets fund managers use it for exactly that purpose, and ....
And all of this has been happening, slowly, quietly, without major price disruptions.
From time to time I've been seeing sort-of-diffuse movements of price driven by things that could be test runs of large systems, or could be large orders executed by sophisticated systems across many markets. From time to time I've seen things happening that appear to be tests of market depth and response time. And for quite a while (seven to nine months now?) I've been noticing a price/volume correlation where lower price means higher volume - a whole lot of somebodies, or maybe just a few somebodies with very deep pockets and a paranoid streak about not placing any single big orders, has been systematically, quietly buying whenever prices are down, at a rate that far exceeds normal dollar cost averaging. I usually see that only when somebody or some institution is trying to enter a market quietly but in a large way and therefore has to take a long time.
I'm just getting this overwhelming feeling that things are ready to move - and something out in the rest of the world, like this vote in Greece or something, is going to provide the impetus for a big spike setting off the next cycle.
There has been a very long period of things falling into place, slowly, in many different areas. Many legal, perceptual, and technological obstacles have been removed. Other obstacles that previously appeared to be very serious threats to long-term viability now are subject to strategies that will allow them to be overcome.
With Silk Road out of business, it's starting to be the case that I can convince people there exist non-criminal, non-dope-related reasons to have Bitcoin. With regulators moving on the wreckage of Mt.Gox, it looks like there's going to be a legal framework that seeks and punishes fraudsters, and that's damned important when people are deciding what to put their money into.
Then you've got investors starting to notice Bitcoin rallies fairly reliably on economic bad news from other parts of the economy and waking up to the idea that it makes a really nice hedge investment to round out a portfolio that is otherwise too exposed to financial-industry risk. You've got investment infrastructure popping up that lets fund managers use it for exactly that purpose, and ....
And all of this has been happening, slowly, quietly, without major price disruptions.
From time to time I've been seeing sort-of-diffuse movements of price driven by things that could be test runs of large systems, or could be large orders executed by sophisticated systems across many markets. From time to time I've seen things happening that appear to be tests of market depth and response time. And for quite a while (seven to nine months now?) I've been noticing a price/volume correlation where lower price means higher volume - a whole lot of somebodies, or maybe just a few somebodies with very deep pockets and a paranoid streak about not placing any single big orders, has been systematically, quietly buying whenever prices are down, at a rate that far exceeds normal dollar cost averaging. I usually see that only when somebody or some institution is trying to enter a market quietly but in a large way and therefore has to take a long time.
I'm just getting this overwhelming feeling that things are ready to move - and something out in the rest of the world, like this vote in Greece or something, is going to provide the impetus for a big spike setting off the next cycle.
July 05, 2015, 11:31:37 AM
The longer the price doesn't crash, the more I think something crazy is coming... feels uncannily like the $2 days at the moment...
Or it feels like the 5$ of the first days of October 2011, before dropping to 2$.
Remember, this market moved a lot slower than in 2011.
actually I'm wrong i meant the $5 days (beginning of 2012) got my bottoms mixed up
July 05, 2015, 09:13:08 AM
The longer the price doesn't crash, the more I think something crazy is coming... feels uncannily like the $2 days at the moment...
Or it feels like the 5$ of the first days of October 2011, before dropping to 2$.
Remember, this market moved a lot slower than in 2011.
July 05, 2015, 08:54:16 AM
The longer the price doesn't crash, the more I think something crazy is coming... feels uncannily like the $2 days at the moment...
Or it feels like the 5$ of the first days of October 2011, before dropping to 2$.
Remember, this market moved a lot slower than in 2011.
July 05, 2015, 07:42:11 AM
This is log version of that chart...
On the original sgbett's chart ^^^ x=days as per
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.9005672
below is my comment on this chart. in red-approximation of what actually happened (days and prices are approximate at the current situation).
Green arrow is what is needed to get on the chart-I am not predicting that it will, just playing with the graph.
As drawn, we will be back at the graph at ~$8000 on Feb 20, 2016. Again, I am not predicting anything.
Thanks for doing that chart Biodom, nice to see how things play out over the long term.
July 05, 2015, 07:36:51 AM
The longer the price doesn't crash, the more I think something crazy is coming... feels uncannily like the $2 days at the moment...
July 04, 2015, 04:28:23 PM
I don't think the next spike can be $560,000 14 months from the date of the OP. That's next November and would have to go up from today's price by 2240x. It's never done anything like that since it went from 10 Bitcoins a cent to $2 when it started off. Those kind of price increases would need billions of dollars throwing at Bitcoin to happen today. In the early days a few thousand dollars would pump the price crazily.
So the number I have picked is probably not that accurate. The magnitude, and the colossal unbeleivableness of it, is what is important. That's the black swan that nobody sees coming. That 90% of the people in the world will miss 90% of the bitcoin
Probably my timescale is wrong, probably my target is wrong.
Mostly though I'm still confident the underlying hypothesis remains solid. When it happens people will be utterly bamboozled.
Mostly though I'm still confident the underlying hypothesis remains solid. When it happens people will be utterly bamboozled.
Anyone's number is as good as the others'. The point of this thread, as emphasized by OP, is to get ready for such high valuation so as to not panic when it inevitably happens.
July 04, 2015, 04:27:20 PM
I don't think the next spike can be $560,000 14 months from the date of the OP. That's next November and would have to go up from today's price by 2240x. It's never done anything like that since it went from 10 Bitcoins a cent to $2 when it started off. Those kind of price increases would need billions of dollars throwing at Bitcoin to happen today. In the early days a few thousand dollars would pump the price crazily.
He was just playing with numbers, and I get his point about black-swannish nature of bitcoin's potential valuation.
Alas, Oct 2010 to July 2011 move (10 months) was from $0.062 to $35 (I don't have numbers beforehand).
The equivalent in %% is a move from $260 to $132000, not that I expect it...just numbers.
July 04, 2015, 04:10:32 PM
I don't think the next spike can be $560,000 14 months from the date of the OP. That's next November and would have to go up from today's price by 2240x. It's never done anything like that since it went from 10 Bitcoins a cent to $2 when it started off. Those kind of price increases would need billions of dollars throwing at Bitcoin to happen today. In the early days a few thousand dollars would pump the price crazily.
July 04, 2015, 03:04:56 PM
I agree with the above.
I love coming on this forum and speculating. It hasn't been exactly free for me as I have invested quite a bit. I know I can sell at any point but it's still in btc and it takes a while to realise it's still there and not "spent".
I have been involved with Bitcoin since the beginning of the 2013 willy bot pump and it has been a fun ride. Apart from lifting weights in the gym, wakeboarding and having fun days out with my wife and son I also enjoy the Bitcoin rollercoaster! It's more than just an investment, it's exciting. It can't fail as I will miss all this!! Even the FUDsters.
I look forward to posting success and congratulations stories in the future fellow bitcoiners.
I love coming on this forum and speculating. It hasn't been exactly free for me as I have invested quite a bit. I know I can sell at any point but it's still in btc and it takes a while to realise it's still there and not "spent".
I have been involved with Bitcoin since the beginning of the 2013 willy bot pump and it has been a fun ride. Apart from lifting weights in the gym, wakeboarding and having fun days out with my wife and son I also enjoy the Bitcoin rollercoaster! It's more than just an investment, it's exciting. It can't fail as I will miss all this!! Even the FUDsters.
I look forward to posting success and congratulations stories in the future fellow bitcoiners.
July 04, 2015, 02:50:37 PM
Yeah, I've been sitting through it and now I'm in too deep to turn back.
I can handle a bubble to 1000 or 3000 without losing my head. Part of me will just be thinking "Finally!"
But if it goes to $10,000 to $100,000 within the next 5-6 years, I can't see myself staying cool. Even after all the long hours playing with models and various assumptions to convince myself that it's possible.
If it succeeds then by its very nature there'll never be a 'top'. It'll carry on deflating. I guess everyone needs to set themselves a goal and start spending when it reaches it. Paper profits ain't much fun. It's no good sitting in a shack eating ramen waiting for a mythical price level when there's a whole world out there waiting to be lived in.
A net worth of 2 million seems like a reasonable time to start spending.
I did this calulation a year ago and came to the conclusion that with 2M it's possible to just retire early with some comfort, but nothing "over the top" (asuming your are about 30-35 years old)
Plan to earn a 5% return after taxes. Withdraw 4%. $80,000 per year and it should keep growing.
It really wouldn't be anything to write home about. People who got into the oil game early made a lot more, but I wasn't born then.
In 1900, you had the chance to buy up cheap land in California or Texas and try to get oil. Before that you had the gold rush in 1849.
In 1995, you could've tried to start a tech company and sell it for millions. Or you could've gotten involved in the opening up of Russia. Perestroika made a bunch of fortunes. I was too young.
You could've gone to Australia to get it on the mining boom. Or went to North Dakota or Alberta to get in on the new oil boom.
Every generation has its chance. Sometimes multiple chances. The thing that makes thousands of new fortunes. I see bitcoin as our generation's chance. Bitcoin, if it succeeds, isn't just going to make Satoshi, Roger Ver, Eric Voorhees, and a couple of dozen other people rich. Cryptocurrency, if it's like oil, or gold, or steel, or railroads, or the internet, it's going to make hundreds of thousands of people wealthy.
You're going to scroll down the world's global richlist and underneath "Source of Wealth" you're going to see Cryptocurrency there pop up multiple times alongside Gold Mining, Oil Exploration, Lumber, Steel, Shipping, Automobile Manufacturing, etc.
considering that wealthy now is at least $5 mil, then for hundreds of thousands (or, at least 100K) to be worth that much in bitcoin, it would have to go to ~$500K.
It is still possible.
Source for ~100K having at least 10BTC:
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/distribution-of-bitcoin-wealth-by-owner-316297
If bitcoin is the currency singularity, it will have to be worth that much.
July 04, 2015, 02:28:03 PM
Yeah, I've been sitting through it and now I'm in too deep to turn back.
I can handle a bubble to 1000 or 3000 without losing my head. Part of me will just be thinking "Finally!"
But if it goes to $10,000 to $100,000 within the next 5-6 years, I can't see myself staying cool. Even after all the long hours playing with models and various assumptions to convince myself that it's possible.
If it succeeds then by its very nature there'll never be a 'top'. It'll carry on deflating. I guess everyone needs to set themselves a goal and start spending when it reaches it. Paper profits ain't much fun. It's no good sitting in a shack eating ramen waiting for a mythical price level when there's a whole world out there waiting to be lived in.
A net worth of 2 million seems like a reasonable time to start spending.
I did this calulation a year ago and came to the conclusion that with 2M it's possible to just retire early with some comfort, but nothing "over the top" (asuming your are about 30-35 years old)
Plan to earn a 5% return after taxes. Withdraw 4%. $80,000 per year and it should keep growing.
It really wouldn't be anything to write home about. People who got into the oil game early made a lot more, but I wasn't born then.
In 1900, you had the chance to buy up cheap land in California or Texas and try to get oil. Before that you had the gold rush in 1849.
In 1995, you could've tried to start a tech company and sell it for millions. Or you could've gotten involved in the opening up of Russia. Perestroika made a bunch of fortunes. I was too young.
You could've gone to Australia to get it on the mining boom. Or went to North Dakota or Alberta to get in on the new oil boom.
Every generation has its chance. Sometimes multiple chances. The thing that makes thousands of new fortunes. I see bitcoin as our generation's chance. Bitcoin, if it succeeds, isn't just going to make Satoshi, Roger Ver, Eric Voorhees, and a couple of dozen other people rich. Cryptocurrency, if it's like oil, or gold, or steel, or railroads, or the internet, it's going to make hundreds of thousands of people wealthy.
You're going to scroll down the world's global richlist and underneath "Source of Wealth" you're going to see Cryptocurrency there pop up multiple times alongside Gold Mining, Oil Exploration, Lumber, Steel, Shipping, Automobile Manufacturing, etc.
considering that wealthy now is at least $5 mil, then for hundreds of thousands (or, at least 100K) to be worth that much in bitcoin, it would have to go to ~$500K.
It is still possible.
Source for ~100K having at least 10BTC:
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/distribution-of-bitcoin-wealth-by-owner-316297
Jump to: