Topic: [prediction] Next spike $560,000 14 {<-oops!} months from now (2017 Update!) - page 7. (Read 71521 times)

 
  
The scary part is that we are quoting these fantasy prices in today's non-hyperinflated dollars.  Imagine the situation during the "great changeover" when hyper-inflation hits and people are worried about eating tomorrow.  They then realize that their bitcoins are worth over $1 million dollars each ($50k in today's un-hyper-inflated money).  Even though $50k isn't that much today, most will see the $1 million and think "Holy shit!  I'm a millionaire!  Who cares if some foreign governments are dumping US Dollars!  I'll have millions of them!"  
  
Perhaps this is the catalyst that drives the price of bitcoin back down even as bitcoin (and other top cryptos) and the global reserve currencies begin a titanic war where no one is sure what will happen ultimately.  Initially when hyper-inflation hits, there is an exodus into the rapidly exploding cryptocurrency universe.  Meanwhile banks and governments begin frantically discussing legislation to confiscate/control crypto so that the fortunes of the existing billionaires don't go up in smoke.  This causes the first "crash" as responsible holders sell their imaginary internet tokens for real US Dollars and other fiat that are clearly being 'saved' by the government.  
  
Then, once the price has dropped sufficiently that one of the big billionaires can stand it no longer (money in the middle of the mob) he begins both buying heavily and using his connections to stop all the aforementioned legislation/regulation.  The next major explosion in price is set off as the billionaires realize they are betraying each other and they all rush to not be the last person standing with worthless fiat.  
  
Now hyperinflation *really* hits hard and panic sets in the population.  Entire retirement accounts are now worthless and you better fucking believe the people that have responsibly saved all their lives will be crying bloody-murder (to which the money-controlled media will say, 'we can't help it!  It's this evil crypto!).  Eventually though the people will realize who really betrayed them and cost them everything (as they always do): the bourgeoisie.  
  
It won't be pretty.  
  
During the final legs up, bitcoin will be worth an absurd amount of dollars or Euros (not a paltry $1 million or $500k - that barely buys a plane ticket 'these days').  We are talking an era of $1 million dollar and euro bills because the fiat scam will have finally collapsed into its last legs: rampant money printing.  Someone would have to be a fool to trade their hard crypto for worthless paper at that point because the world will realize that it's not even paper - it's imaginary numbers a banker they trusted typed into a machine and it magically created that money out of thin air.  
  
Once everyone realizes that all money is imaginary numbers on a computer and they have been sold up a creek by the banks and powers they trusted, we will emerge into a new world.  If you are an early holder now, prepare to be a massive philanthropist later on, unless you plan on standing by and watching millions of elderly sleep on the street and die of hunger.  You will control all the wealth in the world, and it will be up to you to lead appropriately.  
  
Plan on protecting yourself (with well paid security) and being a publicly beloved persona because you are so generous... or plan on hiding in the shadows for the rest of your life.  There are probably a disturbing number of humans who would kill/torture someone for the equivalent of a trillion of today's dollars.  The alternative is that you become one of the new beneficiaries that "bails out" the existing governments and banks and new fiat is issued backed by crypto-assets: this is probably preferable because it maintains a semblance of order.  Taking this a little further, I would also theorize that this would be a good time to introduce "universal salary" to all humans.  
  
It's going to be a horrific and marvelous ride... and we are going to be witness to the greatest financial disaster that humanity has ever seen.  And not just witness - we are going to participate.  
  
Better get your shit together, dear reader.  Tick tock.

very entertaining thread, have read it all
tbh $560 before year end would be very nice and not that surprising, but VERY overdue,
last 2 years or so have been HARD

tbh, even $1k+ is not beyond realms of imagination by year end but I really, really doubt it

when thread was posted year ago or so, I too felt in a year surely we would be past old highs, sadly not
truth be told none of us mere mortals are in control of the price, all you can do is buy, hodl or sell, it won't affect price

we'll see what ahppens, but I do expect some fireworks soon

the global economy is indeed unravelling (about time)
I just hope when btc is worth $5k, that a loaf of bread doesn't cost $250 

efficiency of mining keeps increasing, however, difficulty is increasing as well.

In March 2014 antminer S1 was producing 0.08BTC/day while hashing at 178GH/s
In October 2015 antminer S7 is producing 0.04BTC/day while hashing at 4860Gh/s
So, in mere 19 mo, hashing speed of the consumer machine increased ~27-fold.
Efficiency per watt went from 2 to 0.25-an eightfold increase in efficiency.
However, difficulty increased ~54-fold, making the best (so far) machine to produce just half of what it's predecessor did 19 mo ago.

Expansion of hash rates always lag behind speculative bubbles.

How do you respond to Burt W's objections regarding the implausibility that so large a fraction of the world's electricity supply would be diverted to mining? Bitcoin to the moon means electricity price to the moon.

I for one plan to mitigate this by moving permanently to a place where everything is dirt cheap and temptations of conspicuous consumption are rare.

I'll ride these years on a real low budget so that I can't fully enjoyed the benefits of delayed gratification when time comes.

thanks

its all a bit pie in the sky but I can see this kind of price action giving people a real hard time!

I wildly underestimated one of the variables (as humans are wont to do) - time. Think I am bang on the money about the price though, I think $560k is the big one before it levels out around the 300k mark. the 'ristoprice' any move to a million after that would have to be decades long so not in my lifetime.

As you've said though, i think its a multi year move, such that the noise during it will seem like huge price moves whilst its happening but with hindsight it will all become clear.

Look at November '13:

It starts out in the 200's and by the end of the month we'd hit $1,200 - about 4 weeks say. Prior to that several months spent

so imagine we spend the next year or two slowly working back up to 1000

On the 9th Nov '13, the opening price was around 350 after several days of steady climbing, that day it hit $400. The following morning a plunge back down to $300 which was tested a couple times. At this point without a crystal ball it was anyone's guess what was going to happen. We were already well over the previous all time high. Calls of a bubble were already starting, it has to crash any time!

Instead it carried on marching up relentlessly for the following week.

On the 18th it broke $600, and went on to touch nearly $900 going into the 19th.

A blow off top sure sure, and it was... back under $500 in 36 hours. It wouldn't go lower though, and another 10 days straight gains before finally running out of steam at the end of november at over $1200.

Now, Imagine a 4 year run up from $1000 to $560k and imagine the totally unlikely fractal based scenario of the same patterns playing out over that timescale.

The first year will be a steady climb, until around february of the second year where we will be at around $85k. Still holding? Good because by the end of feb its shot up to $101k and you are pretty happy right now!

The trick now is not to panic as by mid march you'll have seen the price drop right back down to $55k. Panic sold yet? I hope not, because over the next 12 are going to see a climb to $225k - if you have the balls to ride that train.

So we are mid march year 3 now, and over the next 3 weeks growth will suddenly accelerate, $393k in the fist quarter of april. You are smart, you'd sell here right. That would be a wise move because 60 days later the price has collapsed to $169k. You made bank though. Bitcoin is going nowhere now and you are sitting pretty. For the next year though you watch in dismay, as you set out of another 230% price rise. Bitcoin $560k, end of year 4.

Those huge swings over weeks and months will all but guarantee redistribution. Given the behaviour of people during the past 2 run ups, something of that magnitude, over that length of time will be absolutely unbearable.

The noise alone will shake people daily.

Thats what my OP is about. Its a note to self.

 
 
I have recently become fascinated with the idea that when the bitcoin universe was young it experienced many frequent cycles of expansion and retraction, each massive by internal standards but relatively small to an external observer. 
 
But as the timeline goes on these shifts become less frequent, though greater in absolute magnitude. 
 
I think this has been hidden from us though because we have been stuck for a while in the longest 'movement' yet which was a retraction/consolidation one.  If this theory is true, the next leg up will be greater in both duration and magnitude than any we have seen before...  And when it's done it might just carry us right over the vertical part of the adoption curve. 
 
An unexpectedly long and severe bull movement might last three to four years and take us to some pretty extreme prices.  I've written more about it here: https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/3ne7yr/the_next_wave_of_cryptospeculation_is_coming_and/ 
 
Sgbett, any thoughts?  Has anyone tried to find a pattern in the timing of expansions vs. retraction before?  Would you agree the next bull run might take several years to complete, which might be "compressed" by your particular chart? 
 
Perhaps those extreme rises and dips are true, but don't happen so fast - they each take years to complete.  I can definitely see a roaring bitcoin bull that carries us to insane heights over a period of years before a retraction that also falls an insane amount (over a period of years). 
 
Also, your graph doesn't account for competing blockchains, so if one did capture a significant share (as in greater than ten percent) of the crypto market, this net-value would need to be shared.

Can never be sure about anything, but we've been around the 200's for so long that I think its fairly safe to say we have found a new platform. Once people realise it isn't going any lower then there is only one way it can go.

I think it might be different this time, a much shakier and uncertain upwards move, over a long time, one that absolutely tests the limits of anyone trying to ride it all the way up.

Just because the price went up a few bucks?

I hope the best hasn't gone yet as I plan to enjoy this trip a little bit longer   I will start to get excited once Bitstamp and Bitfinex break through the $250 level.

i have been on aboard for 3 years

All aboard!