I think that Brighton it is true that comes from an impressive victory against Arsenal but in that game Arsenal had clearly lost motivation as they knew before that game that even if they had won the game,Manchester City right now it is on another planet and they just destroyed Real Madrid yesterday night so Arsenal knew that they have already lost the Premier League and their second place is assured that is why I would not take into consideration at all the victory of Brighton against Arsenal last weekend.
Based on Newcastle recent results they should win this game at all cost so if you will listen to me,you can go to a slightly less odd and use Brighton +1 Asian Handicap in order to be sure as I also doubt Newcastle will win with more than one goal difference.
Maybe what you said is true, regarding the Arsenal vs Brighton match. it's just that my consideration, not only refers to that fight alone. referring to several matches, especially the two meetings against United in recent weeks, Brighton really put up quite an impressive fight. it was proven that Brighton held United to a draw in the FA CUP, although in the end De Zerbi's squad lost in a penalty shoot-out. in the league competition, Brighton was able to topple United even though it smelled of luck. at least, they are able to provide resistance with high-intensity games. after that, Brighton toppled Arsenal. this one team, performance is not so consistent. but when they met a much better team above them, Brighton was able to play with a very impressive performance.
On the contrary, my guess is, at the moment Newcastle is in an unpleasant situation. fell against Arsenal, then drew against Leeds. this situation, put high pressure on them, especially now that United have the same points. if this scenario is as I expected, the pressure comes from within the body of Newcastle itself. that means, it can have an impact on their performance in this match. but if the opposite happens, Eddie Howe should be able to bring his team to win this match. But, all of this is just a scenario and conjecture. we'll find out, when the fight starts.
Now regarding betting options, what you said is the ideal option. unfortunately, the +1 handicap option only offers @1.49 odds. I guess, not so ideal. but with this option, if Brighton loses 1-0. at least, we won't lose any money. but it was too late, I chose the +0.5 handicap option. scenario, the fight will end in a draw. but if Brighton can beat the home team, an advantage for me.