I do not agree with the mathematical approach. That is NFL and NBA but a true team and sentiment sport like football where manager tactics, team emotion and even fan emotion and form is all together and everything is different. This is why City have a high expected goal in mathematics but when you see how they play sometimes, then you understand they create 10 chances but players not playing well cannot convert the goal.
I have no idea what you are talking about, there is nothing wrong in understanding the statistic if he is performing and what the statistics shows is the performance in a match, if you are talking about conversion rate then yes you need to score goals to win matches and even with all he stats favoring you and if you are not able to convert that into goals then there is no point and that is the case with NBA too, you need to score points.
My prediction for the day,
Wolverhampton to win or draw against Tottenham Hotspur
Manchester United to win against Everton
Arsenal vs Manchester City, Manchester City should win.