For me, things will develop approximately this way, if we get Segwit (due to Segwit2x) in August:
- First there will be another leg in the bubble. I think the current high prices reflect this expectation: no one wants to sell still because the opportunities, if Segwit goes through, are higher than the possible losses if it fails. I can imagine it going to a level between 4000 and 5000.
- But we should not forget that the real "black swan event" is most likely the hard fork with a possible chain split that will take place in November. So the bubble/rally could rapidly finish in a crash of epic dimensions if there are signs for a profoundizing community split that most likely will result in a chain split.
I still not understand one thing: When may the price of BTC be lowest? Before Aug 1st (because of the panic selling), or after Aug 1st?
It depends on the evolution of the "Segwit2x story" - if it's pretty sure that it will be adopted, then August 1 will have no significance and most likely you will see higher prices after the last July week. In this case, you would have to wait until October to get low prices again.
But if Segwit2x is doomed to fail (e.g. because of Craig Wrights "Segwit blocking initiative", or because a large miner gets out of the agreement in the last moment) then the lowest prices are probably achieved _around_ August 1, in the phase of maximum uncertainty (when it's not clear if UASF will get some traction, or if Bitmain will release its "Bitmaincoin" ...).