Topic: Profitability of the new bfl monarchs (600ghs) - page 2. (Read 10385 times)

No, it's a 0% chance. Zero. Nada. Impossible for them to ship it on time.

Lets assume this time they are right on time (0.0001% chance), yes it would ROI base on 30% difficulty increment but not 40%.

Jump in man , you never know if you never go !

+1

Lol

At the same time - I've been mulling over the monarch - but I guess it's way too late to purchase them now as they only have January shipment dates =/

There's also the cointerra - they look pretty good too =)

Any pre-order now is indeed a slap in the face to all past and future miners.

First you are giving an interest free loan.

2nd you are now giving the needed funding to make the people you are pre-ordering from your direct competition towards network growth.

And finally if they do not deliver you are assuming all the risk.

So why pre-order unless you wish to support the company of choice.

As was said many times. The prices that these guys are asking do not properly reflect the amount of risk you are taking as an investor.
You are funding their operation with less return at the end for your efforts.

Edit: this goes for all company's asking the general public to fund their research and development, with a zero interest free loan.

This is all by DESIGN ..the pre-order is a convieneant way to lock your money up so that it does not hash and keep the diff low for them

When there is nothing left u may get your equipment..proudly brought to you by CONMASTERS INC

Most likely they will deliver after 1-2 years, so expected profit is -99.999% of invested capital.

I estimate profitability from buying a BFL Monarch at 0%.

Margin of error of +/- 4%

LOL

"profitability" and "bfl" are mutually exclusive, if you are pre-ordering today. BFL will not deliver your precious monarch by next February, if you order one today; it will be more like December 2014, if then.

At a glance, I read this thread's title as "Probability of the new bfl monarchs (600ghs)" 

ı admıt the current prıces are expensıve because they dont delıver for atleast 5 months . by the tıme ıt ıs ready and shıpped ıts value ıs dropped by atleast 30 percent.

I would say it's looking to be a certain EV- investement even if they would deliver on time, there's no chance you will make your btc's back on an investment in BLF's ASIC at the prices they charge now.

Tips for calculating the return of hardware:

Don't extrapolate out more than 6 months. There are simply too many unknowns and hash rate is growing too fast during a disruptive period to make predictions past that point.  If the delivery date is more than 6 months away, don't bother buying it because you cannot anticipate what sort of conditions you will receive the hardware under.

Don't include exchange rate in your calculations.

Never happen.  BTC is too volatile a price point and power costs would be sky high.  Companies rely on Fiat, they'd have to sell daily or risk losing value.  Imagine 10-15% of all bitcoins mined being sold every single day.  Who'd want to buy them knowing it's coming from these greedy companies who refuse to sell the equipment and mine with it instead? 

All in all, what is being said is its still going to be somewhat profitable to mine just not a get rich quick scheme anymore.

I think you are making the assumption that all that hashpower will be retail.  I would venture to say the endgame is getting close (middle of 2014?).  Asic Producers will be self mining as it won't be profitable to sell low margin chips when they can just self-mine at $.5/GH ($500/TH).  This assumes they have been through a pre-order retail round for NRE recpature.  I believe that level is sustainable by the different producers who want to keep their 10 to 15% slice of the network.

You chart looks nice and all, but since the difficulty only retargets every 2016 blocks, your daily diminishing returns paint a far bleaker picture than reality.  In order to get your 41M daily increase, there would have to be more than 300TH added to the network every day.  That is the equivalent of 600 mini-rig units, or 500 monarchs or 150 TerraMiner IV's.  You are talking $2,100,000-3,000,000 DAILY being spent on equipment and that's using the best $/TH ratios currently out there.  Over a quarter of a billion dollars by the end of the year and another billion next year.  You'd be closer to reality if you factored in that 41M on a per week basis.

also I think 100,000 ASIC miners is more realistic, 40-50% being monarchs over the next 12 months

Average it out at 500gh/s that is 5ph/s in the next year. Isn't it?


Yes there has been substantial growth in difficulty but I don't believe they will bring out a new ASIC in less then 12 months it defies market logic. Even the monarch has been pushing it but they know the monarch won't be ready for another 5-6 months .

Speaking from a marketing point of view they would know that the ship date is a bit early but worst case scenario they will ship 2 months late. So 6 months til you get your batch of monarch. February -march well see the difficulty jump again. Around January December well see the full range of 4th generation miners from bfl. They will have a 4month minimum ship date. Best case scenario 90 days if bfl ups its shit and doesn't have the delays we saw this year.

Bfl would have folded by now if it planned on running off with out money and it wouldn't have made such a bad start to its business by pissing off customers. It's not too good to be true because it isn't too good we have to wait months for our ASics they aren't scamming us people have received their units ordered in the prior year.

Now realistically speaking lets make a realistic chart. You can't go and make a chart based on recent growth because there is simply no way the worlds ASIC companies will be able to manufacture 33,000,000 ASIC miners capable of 500gh/s minimum outputs.

I'm going to put together some data and see what we come up with I suggest some of you do the same.

Taking into account that list of the ASIC miners ordered from bfl and we will have to assume it makes up at least 50% of the recent hash rate increase.(I'm not quite sure what percent of the market they hold).


Then we take into account how much they have produced and shipped in the last 14 months work out their production rate add a reasonable percent , 30-35% increased production.

I can't be bothered looking it up right now I'm on my phone but when I get infrint of a pc ill source some data. Ill put up a poll later to get rough numbers of ASIC companies customers etc.


There is just too much horseshit speculation going on and I don't like it. I honestly believe you can still turn a profit in 12 months from an ASIC unit. We should also work out an equation of hash rate to difficulty to use as a guideline when considering ASIC units. If there already is one please help and show us. Not looking at usd value though try not to use fiat currency as a guide when looking at profit , ROI . Lets use btc.because that minimises exchange rate speculation. We also round up costs and round down returns this provides a worst case scenario.

For starters we have 100,000 500gh/s units =5ph/s added to our current hash rate we can round that up to 6ph/s from memory the current hash rate was above 500th/s?

Can someone calculate expected difficulty at 6ph/s?


But until we get realistic numbers of ASIC units preordered in the 500gh category this data will also be speculation but what I believe to be solid speculative data. A lot more trustworthy then a lot of the speculation we have been getting / making.

Assuming difficulty is 75,000,000 assuming network hash rate is around 650-750th/s Ill roughly say our hash rate with 6ph will be around 650,000,000-750,000,000 does anyone agree? Around 1,000,000,000 diff this time next year? That will return something like 0.20-0.30 btc a day If I'm not wrong



Please someone add to this or adjust . I want as much input as we can get.


When you use a mining calculator assume electricity costs 0.35 cents per kwh (worst case scenario we pay around this in Australia).


Simply we cannot assume the difficulty will rise at a steady rate , ASIC miners do not go up in hash rate the longer they are plugged in. Difficulty and hash rate is directly manipulated by how much a company can produce and sell ASIC units.