Topic: Profitability of the new bfl monarchs (600ghs) - page 3. (Read 10293 times)

Precisely but 41m a day the difficulty has been the same for 2 weeks it seems to me the sudden burst was due to large deliveries from bfl and a couple other companies I think we're safe for a few weeks more

I used the monarch as it's about the biggest thing out there.  33 million monarch would equal $150 billion.  Even if they came down to $100 that'd be $3.3 billion.  Even at $10 I can't see people investing $330 million in the next year, not to mention the unlikelyhood of $13/TH.

10-14PH looks possible next year, 1.4 to 2.0 billion difficulty.  Anything above that is kinda unrealistic.

It doesn't look that good even if the difficulty only goes linear at 41M daily difficulty rise (15B difficulty at the end of 2014).  With the best case scenario of them shipping out the cards at the end of 2013, they will end up makeing 21 BTC in 2013 and then 3 or 4 more in all of 2015.

I would say these projections are pretty optimistic being that they aren't exponential but linear.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Auya3iRE6az1dDc0UVgwMU52YVpTazVjSHByOGNiWHc#gid=8

Basically... 600 is too small for delivery in December (and given BFL's track record, 2013 delivery is laughable)

I don't quibble with your math.  I don't think that 33M Monarchs will be delivered by 1/1/2015.  I would question whether or not ONE Monarch would be delivered by 1/1/2015.

However BFL are not the only ones producing hashing chips.  The hashing algorithm/circuitry is very conducive to massive parallelism, and the design is not all that complicated.  Anyone with access to the tools can create a design, and once you have the GDSII, you can go to just about any fab with it.  The fabs in China are well entrenched at the 28nm node, and will be producing either 20nm or 16nm before long.  I think that we're going to see continued escalation in the mining war, and the PHash/sec milestone is not that far off.  Current growth in the hashing rate has been 17% per 11.4 days so far this year.  If we extend that rate into the future, we'll hit the 1PH/sec milestone in December 2014.

Using these numbers, your $4680 Monarch, if it goes online on 1/1/14, will earn 27.4 BTC before leveling off at < .01 BTC/week in November 2014.  You'll have earned 27 BTC by July, not so much after that.

I'm glad I'm not waiting for a $30K "minirig" to show up.  If it got here today, I'd earn $80K.  If it gets here on December 1st, I'd probably get half my money back.  I'd certainly trade it for 6 or more Monarchs.  I'd be lucky to break even.

I'm still waiting for a single Jally, which might get here by 10/1.  I'll be lucky to break even.

Difficulty will never reach 2.8T by 2015.  1 Petahash will equal 140 million  1000 petahash would then be 140 billion.  You'd need 20,000 petahash hit 2.8T difficulty.  That would equal 33,333,333 Monarchs.

Don't forget to add 10% GST plus Customs duty for processing the paperwork to get the unit into Australia.

Fun with projections: A 100GH/s unit delivered today will never earn beyond $3K in its lifetime.  Given the current exponential growth of difficulty, A 100GH/s unit will earn $3K by Feb 2014, and then earn another $20 by Jan 1, 2015.

A new 600GH unit from BFL, delivered in January (I know, I'm smoking something, but so are they!) will earn $675 in a year.  $665 of that by June 1, 2014.  Not much payback on a $5K "investment."  In 2015, it would not even be earning a penny a week.

Current growth rate (26% per 11 days) puts difficulty at 1B+ on Jan 1, 2014. 
Current growth rate (26% per 11 days) puts difficulty at 2.8T+ on Jan 1, 2015. 

If all the GPU miners in the WORLD shut down tomorrow, it won't affect things much.  What was the total hash rate before the Avalons, and ASIC-miners (and BFL's) started shipping?  It actually looks like the success of BTC mining is also going to be the downfall of BTC mining.  Growth makes mining unprofitable...

PH = Petahash.  1PH = 1,000TH = 1,000,000GH

Maybe the spreadsheet is easier to see...
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Auya3iRE6az1dDc0UVgwMU52YVpTazVjSHByOGNiWHc#gid=8

The idea is that continuous exponential growth is ridiculous.  In like 3 years the solar system's resources are committed to bitcoin mining.  So... I made a spreadsheet that goes exponential for just the committed hashrates of the announced vendors which puts out about 14PH/s of global hashrate.  Using the current growth rate and mapping it to an exponential is suprisingly close.  Here is the wolfram alpha difficulty data mapped starting in Feb through the next projected retarget (which I undershot by a picking 85M):
http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=exponential+fit+%7B%7B13%2C+3651012%7D%2C%7B37%2C+4847647%7D%2C%7B96%2C+11187257%7D%2C+%7B120%2C+15605633%7D%2C%7B156%2C26162876%7D%2C%7B167%2C31256960%7D%2C%7B189%2C50810340%7D%2C%7B200%2C+65750060%7D%2C%7B210%2C85000000%7D%7D

I figure that rate will continue until all the pre-orders are shipped, which puts the global hash rate at 14PH/s in early Feb.  At that point I assume the growth rate will be linear not exponential (i.e. the growth between retargets will be constant rather than increasing... i.e. no longer accelerating in difficulty).  I basically thought that at that point, the rate would "coast" at that linear rate... rather than being pushed.  The curve flattens out with a slope equal to the "exit velocity" of the exponential portion... around 41Million daily difficulty rise.  We are currently at around 1.6M daily difficulty rise, so this linear phase I am "hoping" is only 25-ish times larger than what we are seeing today.

Anyway, if you use the spreadsheet I posted, with these assumptions, put in a delivery date of March, 1st (an optimistic BFL target date), 600 GH performance, and check out the cumulative BTC mining performance it comes out to 12 BTC in 2014, and 5BTC in 2015 (though projecting 2014 is fraught enough, 2015 is even more fantasy).

Obviously, this could (and most likely is) complete bullcrap... reality may not be anything like this projection. But modelling is fun, and it puts in high relief delays in delivery are going to shorten these miners shelf lives considerably.  Even the fancy 28nm ones.
Hope that helps.

Edit: some grammar/spelling changes.

what dıd ı just read

My projections of a 41M linear difficulty rise (not exponential!), starting on March 1st with a global hashrate for 20PH/s, the 600GH card will generate 12 BTC (and a few more in all of 2015).  I do assume it will be exponential until early Feb 2014, which brings us to 14PH/s at the beginning of Feb..

I met a guy on the road yesterday offered some magic beans for my bitcoins.  When I put the beans into my profitability calculator it says they should grow up to the giants castle within 3-4 months and I'll probably be able to steal a golden goose (massive ROI!)

You know 6-7 months ago I was contemplating gathering a bunch of old pcs and combining them all the graphic cards and all, second hand pcs. Whatever I could have for my hands on I worked out for $1,000 I could get close to 1ghs which seemed expensive compared to the $300 jally. Probably would have been better of doing that hahaha. Going to your local Internet cafe booking out all the pcs and mining? 30 pcs at $30 an hour for all of them? Lol

Sounds about right. The next few months will easily see 100% difficulty increases.

* BitFury (up to 400 GH/s) systems are now shipping. New orders are $8,000 for Oct delivery.
* KNC is due to ship soon (up to 400 GH/s). New orders are $7,000 for Oct delivery.
* HashFast taped-out (400 GH/s). New order are $5,600 for Oct delivery.

BFL on the other hand misses every date promised. $4680 for 600 GH/s due some time after Feb is way too expensive.

CANT ım overseas all my bankıng shıt ıs at home. plus ı have about 5k ın debt to pay hahaha

I'd buy it !

they are an upstanding company !

get your order in early , if you think about it too long you will miss your chance !