Projected Minimum Cost per BTC over the next year - page 2.

samsonn25

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Quote from: Adrian-x on November 13, 2014, 02:56:29 PM

Quote from: keystroke on November 13, 2014, 03:39:54 AM

Quote from: Opnsrc on November 12, 2014, 07:29:27 PM

Quote from: lyth0s on October 03, 2014, 02:49:01 AM

I love what you have done here, but I think there should be some adjustments to the numbers. Use $0.08 per KWH and 0.68W/GH. The numbers won't look as optimistic for us, but they are probably more realistic for near future calculations.

Even the antminer S3 is already 0.78W/GH and the Antminer S4 gen will take it down to 0.68. As far as cost for electricity goes it can get pretty cheap in some parts of china where there is a lot of mining power and good contracts through the use of government officials. Even for a very urban area like LA, California the base fee is $0.08 for residents (which quickly scales up based on usage). Mid-west states can get a stable $0.08/KWH for agricultural purposes.

I had to shut down all my physical miners the other day. Here in Massachusetts they just increased the winter power rates by 37%, went from $0.16 to $0.22 overnight =(((

I think you deserve a government bailout. TBTNM - To Big To Not Mine

Don't save the banks. Save the miners! Energy subsidy for all mining operations. Secure the network.

(I promise this has nothing to do with keeping coin price high Wink

)

Actually the miners in BC Canada are unduly submitted with low energy costs i propose a export tax on goods to BC, to fix the imbalance and subsidize local mining with the income (and make up any shortfall with printed fiat)

Here in PA electricity is .09 base rate. After delivery and service final cost is .16

Adrian-x

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Quote from: keystroke on November 13, 2014, 03:39:54 AM

Quote from: Opnsrc on November 12, 2014, 07:29:27 PM

Quote from: lyth0s on October 03, 2014, 02:49:01 AM

I love what you have done here, but I think there should be some adjustments to the numbers. Use $0.08 per KWH and 0.68W/GH. The numbers won't look as optimistic for us, but they are probably more realistic for near future calculations.

Even the antminer S3 is already 0.78W/GH and the Antminer S4 gen will take it down to 0.68. As far as cost for electricity goes it can get pretty cheap in some parts of china where there is a lot of mining power and good contracts through the use of government officials. Even for a very urban area like LA, California the base fee is $0.08 for residents (which quickly scales up based on usage). Mid-west states can get a stable $0.08/KWH for agricultural purposes.

I had to shut down all my physical miners the other day. Here in Massachusetts they just increased the winter power rates by 37%, went from $0.16 to $0.22 overnight =(((

I think you deserve a government bailout. TBTNM - To Big To Not Mine

Don't save the banks. Save the miners! Energy subsidy for all mining operations. Secure the network.

(I promise this has nothing to do with keeping coin price high Wink

)

Actually the miners in BC Canada are unduly submitted with low energy costs i propose a export tax on goods to BC, to fix the imbalance and subsidize local mining with the income (and make up any shortfall with printed fiat)

keystroke

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advocate of a cryptographic attack on the globe

Quote from: Opnsrc on November 12, 2014, 07:29:27 PM

Quote from: lyth0s on October 03, 2014, 02:49:01 AM

I love what you have done here, but I think there should be some adjustments to the numbers. Use $0.08 per KWH and 0.68W/GH. The numbers won't look as optimistic for us, but they are probably more realistic for near future calculations.

Even the antminer S3 is already 0.78W/GH and the Antminer S4 gen will take it down to 0.68. As far as cost for electricity goes it can get pretty cheap in some parts of china where there is a lot of mining power and good contracts through the use of government officials. Even for a very urban area like LA, California the base fee is $0.08 for residents (which quickly scales up based on usage). Mid-west states can get a stable $0.08/KWH for agricultural purposes.

I had to shut down all my physical miners the other day. Here in Massachusetts they just increased the winter power rates by 37%, went from $0.16 to $0.22 overnight =(((

I think you deserve a government bailout. TBTNM - To Big To Not Mine

Don't save the banks. Save the miners! Energy subsidy for all mining operations. Secure the network.

(I promise this has nothing to do with keeping coin price high Wink

)

Opnsrc

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Quote from: lyth0s on October 03, 2014, 02:49:01 AM

I love what you have done here, but I think there should be some adjustments to the numbers. Use $0.08 per KWH and 0.68W/GH. The numbers won't look as optimistic for us, but they are probably more realistic for near future calculations.

Even the antminer S3 is already 0.78W/GH and the Antminer S4 gen will take it down to 0.68. As far as cost for electricity goes it can get pretty cheap in some parts of china where there is a lot of mining power and good contracts through the use of government officials. Even for a very urban area like LA, California the base fee is $0.08 for residents (which quickly scales up based on usage). Mid-west states can get a stable $0.08/KWH for agricultural purposes.

I had to shut down all my physical miners the other day. Here in Massachusetts they just increased the winter power rates by 37%, went from $0.16 to $0.22 overnight =(((

keystroke

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I think this is interesting to look at again as the hash rate is going up again. Just saw a 10% increase and we are going to see another ~7-8% increase soon.

Adrian-x

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Quote from: podyx on October 04, 2014, 07:24:45 PM

A damn fucking shame that hashrate declined...

Quite the opposite if you are in the business of propagating the network (i.e. mining)
It's also way too soon to call it declining, but I think it is inevitable when the product costs meet market price.

We're about to witness the start of Bitcoin is dead stage. - the part of the adoption cycle that generates Bitcoin proponents. Wink

podyx

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lyth0s

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World Class Cryptonaire

I love what you have done here, but I think there should be some adjustments to the numbers. Use $0.08 per KWH and 0.68W/GH. The numbers won't look as optimistic for us, but they are probably more realistic for near future calculations.

Even the antminer S3 is already 0.78W/GH and the Antminer S4 gen will take it down to 0.68. As far as cost for electricity goes it can get pretty cheap in some parts of china where there is a lot of mining power and good contracts through the use of government officials. Even for a very urban area like LA, California the base fee is $0.08 for residents (which quickly scales up based on usage). Mid-west states can get a stable $0.08/KWH for agricultural purposes.

AnonymousEconomist

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Quote from: pennywise on September 27, 2014, 12:07:16 PM

http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2014/09/19/bitbeat-more-pain-for-bitcoin-prices-are-chinese-miners-to-blame/

The China theory is one of the few that seems to makes sense of those competing trends.

The idea is that some Chinese citizens see bitcoin as a vehicle for bypassing capital controls, which limit them to foreign exchange purchases of more than $50,000 a year. With Chinese bitcoin exchanges scrutinized by officials and with banks barred from servicing them ever since a crackdown in April, yuan-funded investment in mining could be an easier, below-the-radar way to obtain bitcoins and sell them for dollars.

Is this happening? Well, we know a lot of the new mining equipment is coming online in China, where a large number of new ASIC (application-specific integrated circuit) mining rigs are made. Sources have told us of large mining operations surreptitiously installed by employees of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) in factories that enjoy state-subsidized electricity. In some cases, these people say, the rigs are even charged to the company as “computing equipment.” If the state’s paying for both your equipment and your power bill, the price of bitcoin doesn’t matter so much.

Does anyone believe this? Could this be a possible explanation for insane difficulty growth for the past few month?

This is very interesting.

But i can't imagine this will remain true, as the cost nears extremely high numbers like August 2015's $10,000.

I could be wrong though. They may just still continue, but just make less profit.

samsonn25

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I think FREE or Little electricity cost is part of the reason difficulty has not dropped.

In addition there are still money stuck in the development phase from the last major investment phase (late 2013 early 2014).

I expect a major shakeout of manufacturers by the end of year. Wont be many makers and suppliers in 2015 because there wont be any profit in making and selling them.

pennywise

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http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2014/09/19/bitbeat-more-pain-for-bitcoin-prices-are-chinese-miners-to-blame/

The China theory is one of the few that seems to makes sense of those competing trends.

The idea is that some Chinese citizens see bitcoin as a vehicle for bypassing capital controls, which limit them to foreign exchange purchases of more than $50,000 a year. With Chinese bitcoin exchanges scrutinized by officials and with banks barred from servicing them ever since a crackdown in April, yuan-funded investment in mining could be an easier, below-the-radar way to obtain bitcoins and sell them for dollars.

Is this happening? Well, we know a lot of the new mining equipment is coming online in China, where a large number of new ASIC (application-specific integrated circuit) mining rigs are made. Sources have told us of large mining operations surreptitiously installed by employees of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) in factories that enjoy state-subsidized electricity. In some cases, these people say, the rigs are even charged to the company as “computing equipment.” If the state’s paying for both your equipment and your power bill, the price of bitcoin doesn’t matter so much.

Does anyone believe this? Could this be a possible explanation for insane difficulty growth for the past few month?

samsonn25

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While the ASM gen3 chips seem like a good deal, they are power hogs at 1.1 watts/gh

They will be outdated and unprofitable by November if the user has to pay anything over .10 electricity and other expenses.

wilth1

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Quote from: samsonn25 on September 26, 2014, 03:05:29 PM

1000TH for 100k

$100/TH is hard to do

If they can do it then they are making a killing at sales:

KNC Neptune 3 = $2000 TH

Bitmain s4 = $750 TH

trying to estimate infrastructure reinvestment cost:

hashrate increase * production cost per PH

You could then deduct any retail sales from this amount relative to the total increase as a percentage.

AM is now selling 1TH/s for as low as about 290 usd. with retail markup (roughly 100%) removed and all resulting profits considered, $100/TH seems fairly accurate

xstr8guy

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Quote from: AnonymousEconomist on September 25, 2014, 08:13:33 PM

Quote from: keystroke on September 25, 2014, 07:33:22 PM

Quote from: AnonymousEconomist on September 25, 2014, 07:26:13 PM

Quote from: mvalley on September 25, 2014, 07:02:17 PM

Based on the hashrate increase and how consumers are still buying over priced miners, I now think that overall mining will go negative ROI for a while until people realize that they are losing money. Home miners don't think like business miners and may not realize they are losing $ in small bits here and there.

So while the max hashrate/BTC calculations have value, I don't think many individuals will actually shut down if they already have the equipment.

Gonna be a rough ride for a while.

I agree with this. I also believe the typical home miner is more likely to hold onto his/her bitcoin.

But I couldn't imagine the big mining farms selling at a loss. They are at the top of the bitcoin food chain.

Yes, but I imagine that now home miners are a small percentage of the overall mining market. Does anyone have a guess at how sizable they are now?

I would guess around 20%.

But that IS just a guess. With no scientific backing whatsoever.

It should be pretty easy to deduce by looking at Organofcorti's hashrate chart.
http://organofcorti.blogspot.com

You would have to make some assumptions about how much of DiscusFish and GHash.io's hashrate is from their private farms though. And the other public pools would be mostly home miners since every large-scale mining operation should logically be solo mining. There are some pretty big players on some of the public pools though but they aren't in the same league as Bitfury, KNC, Bitmain and other ASIC manufacturers.

So who's good at math? Cheesy

mmeijeri

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Quote from: eoakland on September 26, 2014, 04:41:38 PM

you never know. if bitcoin falls enough--it will get to a point where these companies with big farms will have to turn off the power.

Some of their power and the same goes for home miners. If they still have an edge on energy prices I don't see how home miners could hope to regain much "market share". I imagine there are some limited advantages that home miners have such as "free" space to store the mining hardware rather than a data center which costs money to run / rent, but only in small amounts.

eoakland

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Quote from: mmeijeri on September 26, 2014, 03:43:26 PM

Quote from: eoakland on September 26, 2014, 03:41:53 PM

hopefully it become very unprofitable--that way the corp farms stop mining the shit out everything

Industrial mining isn't going to go away, and home mining is likely on its way out, just as happened with CPU mining and GPU mining. Just the free market in action. You can't just make free money forever.

you never know. if bitcoin falls enough--it will get to a point where these companies with big farms will have to turn off the power.

mmeijeri

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Martijn Meijering

Quote from: eoakland on September 26, 2014, 03:41:53 PM

hopefully it become very unprofitable--that way the corp farms stop mining the shit out everything

Industrial mining isn't going to go away, and home mining is likely on its way out, just as happened with CPU mining and GPU mining. Just the free market in action. You can't just make free money forever.

eoakland

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hopefully it becomes very unprofitable--that way the corp farms stop mining the shit out everything

samsonn25

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1000TH for 100k

$100/TH is hard to do

If they can do it then they are making a killing at sales:

KNC Neptune 3 = $2000 TH

Bitmain s4 = $750 TH

wilth1

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Does $100,000 USD seem reasonable for manufacturers' 1 PH/s infrastructure costs at present? Any data that indicates how this is declining over time?

Topic: Projected Minimum Cost per BTC over the next year - page 2. (Read 18793 times)