Or each additional machine added signifies a smaller and smaller increase overall.
Very good point. 
Topic: Projected Minimum Cost per BTC over the next year - page 5. (Read 18793 times)
I find the following numbers most interesting. It shows a statistically significant, small, slowdown in build rate:
Code:
Average Average
Period Covered Per Adjustment
From To Adjust Length
--------- --------- ------- ----------
14-Mar-13 13-Mar-14 23.92% 11.38 days
29-Jun-13 29-Jun-14 23.45% 11.41 days
24-Aug-13 31-Aug-14 21.12% 11.63 days
Because it is becoming less profitable to mine. Or sell unprofitable machines to the public.
Or each additional machine added signifies a smaller and smaller increase overall.
I find the following numbers most interesting. It shows a statistically significant, small, slowdown in build rate:
Code:
Average Average
Period Covered Per Adjustment
From To Adjust Length
--------- --------- ------- ----------
14-Mar-13 13-Mar-14 23.92% 11.38 days
29-Jun-13 29-Jun-14 23.45% 11.41 days
24-Aug-13 31-Aug-14 21.12% 11.63 days
Because it is becoming less profitable to mine. Or sell unprofitable machines to the public.
Can they build at $20-25 GH though?
I find the following numbers most interesting. It shows a statistically significant, small, slowdown in build rate:
Code:
Average Average
Period Covered Per Adjustment
From To Adjust Length
--------- --------- ------- ----------
14-Mar-13 13-Mar-14 23.92% 11.38 days
29-Jun-13 29-Jun-14 23.45% 11.41 days
24-Aug-13 31-Aug-14 21.12% 11.63 days
I wonder also if the institutional miners will act rationally with prices being such. The desire to break even on initial investment I would think could lead them to sell even for a loss initially. I don't smell many holders in the big guys as they seem to be non-believers. Fiat still rules bitcoin.
Luckly we have one big miner that is holding most or all of the coins and that is Bitfury. I suspect that the rest are holding less than 50% of what they mine. KnC stated that they aren't holding any. Damn tards!
Well something else we agree on.
Actually with the 3 big builders ; bitmaintech,bitfury,knc there must be over 100ph self mining. Why should they do anything but mine.
I think the top ten builders could own 160 of the 210ph mining right now. All they need to do is limit growth under 4-6% and mine.
I make that statement with the following in mind : power at 4-8 cents a kwatt , gear at .6-1watt a gh and btc at 480usd.
I wonder also if the institutional miners will act rationally with prices being such. The desire to break even on initial investment I would think could lead them to sell even for a loss initially. I don't smell many holders in the big guys as they seem to be non-believers. Fiat still rules bitcoin.
Luckly we have one big miner that is holding most or all of the coins and that is Bitfury. I suspect that the rest are holding less than 50% of what they mine. KnC stated that they aren't holding any. Damn tards!
It will be very interesting to see if the institutional miners will learn what the small miners have known for a while, mining more quickly than imagined becomes a very marginal game and a money sink if you are not careful.
I wonder also if the institutional miners will act rationally with prices being such. The desire to break even on initial investment I would think could lead them to sell even for a loss initially. I don't smell many holders in the big guys as they seem to be non-believers. Fiat still rules bitcoin.
I wonder also if the institutional miners will act rationally with prices being such. The desire to break even on initial investment I would think could lead them to sell even for a loss initially. I don't smell many holders in the big guys as they seem to be non-believers. Fiat still rules bitcoin.
So the next 5 months will be very interesting.
I may do more coin holding then any other move.
Yes indeed. I may do more coin holding then any other move.
Don't see the updates but diff is slowing from june 29 to now it is around 10% and the current predication from www.bitcoincharts.com is under 1%.
Price is at 470-490.
At a .8 watt s-3 480 usd and 10 cents a kwatt it does not pay power at a diff of
114,000 we are at 27,428. So if we get 10% jumps in diff no miners turns a profit around April 1st 2015
At 15% diff jumps miners end it around Jan 21st 2015
Lastly at 20% the party is over on Dec 23 2014.
So the next 5 months will be very interesting.
I may do more coin holding then any other move.
Price is at 470-490.
At a .8 watt s-3 480 usd and 10 cents a kwatt it does not pay power at a diff of
114,000 we are at 27,428. So if we get 10% jumps in diff no miners turns a profit around April 1st 2015
At 15% diff jumps miners end it around Jan 21st 2015
Lastly at 20% the party is over on Dec 23 2014.
So the next 5 months will be very interesting.
I may do more coin holding then any other move.
When calculated in the OP over the time period from March 14, 2013 to March 13, 2014 the average increase in the difficulty and hash rate was 23.92% per adjustment period and the average length of each adjustment period was 11.38 days.
Recalculated over the period June 29, 2013 to June 29, 2014 it was 23.45% and 11.41 days.
Now, recalculating over the period August 24, 2013 to August 31, 2014 it is 21.12% and 11.63 days.
Assuming the network growth rate over the next year is the same as it was this last year we get:
In other words something has got to give by the end of the year, or actually before December 1
Recalculated over the period June 29, 2013 to June 29, 2014 it was 23.45% and 11.41 days.
Now, recalculating over the period August 24, 2013 to August 31, 2014 it is 21.12% and 11.63 days.
Assuming the network growth rate over the next year is the same as it was this last year we get:
Code:
Hash Rate Power Energy Cost Cost
Date Difficulty TH/s MW MWh $/Period $/BTC
--------- ------------------ ---------- ------ ---------- -------------- ----------
11-Sep-14 33,220,936,877 237,808 238 66,349 $6,634,853 $131.64
23-Sep-14 40,236,446,759 288,028 288 80,360 $8,035,984 $159.44
04-Oct-14 48,733,473,526 348,853 349 97,330 $9,733,002 $193.12
16-Oct-14 59,024,880,009 422,523 423 117,884 $11,788,392 $233.90
28-Oct-14 71,489,598,585 511,750 512 142,778 $14,277,833 $283.29
08-Nov-14 86,586,583,575 619,820 620 172,930 $17,292,988 $343.11
20-Nov-14 104,871,710,060 750,712 751 209,449 $20,944,876 $415.57
02-Dec-14 127,018,241,359 909,246 909 253,680 $25,367,960 $503.33
13-Dec-14 153,841,618,762 1,101,258 1,101 307,251 $30,725,098 $609.62
25-Dec-14 186,329,486,300 1,333,819 1,334 372,135 $37,213,544 $738.36
05-Jan-15 225,678,056,071 1,615,491 1,615 450,722 $45,072,202 $894.29
17-Jan-15 273,336,153,086 1,956,646 1,957 545,904 $54,590,430 $1,083.14
29-Jan-15 331,058,561,407 2,369,846 2,370 661,187 $66,118,694 $1,311.88
09-Feb-15 400,970,635,767 2,870,303 2,870 800,815 $80,081,465 $1,588.92
21-Feb-15 485,646,557,708 3,476,447 3,476 969,929 $96,992,858 $1,924.46
05-Mar-15 588,204,117,648 4,210,593 4,211 1,174,756 $117,475,554 $2,330.86
16-Mar-15 712,419,512,763 5,099,775 5,100 1,422,837 $142,283,732 $2,823.09
28-Mar-15 862,866,387,600 6,176,732 6,177 1,723,308 $172,330,835 $3,419.26
08-Apr-15 1,045,084,236,901 7,481,119 7,481 2,087,232 $208,723,207 $4,141.33
20-Apr-15 1,265,782,371,309 9,060,961 9,061 2,528,008 $252,800,823 $5,015.89
02-May-15 1,533,086,956,002 10,974,431 10,974 3,061,866 $306,186,635 $6,075.13
13-May-15 1,856,840,218,301 13,291,983 13,292 3,708,463 $370,846,321 $7,358.06
25-May-15 2,248,962,841,151 16,098,949 16,099 4,491,607 $449,160,670 $8,911.92
06-Jun-15 2,723,892,885,897 19,498,682 19,499 5,440,132 $544,013,236 $10,793.91
17-Jun-15 3,299,117,405,623 23,616,363 23,616 6,588,965 $658,896,517 $13,073.34
29-Jun-15 3,995,816,323,188 28,603,604 28,604 7,980,405 $798,040,547 $15,834.14
10-Jul-15 4,839,642,281,734 34,644,038 34,644 9,665,686 $966,568,646 $19,177.95
22-Jul-15 5,861,665,181,962 41,960,074 41,960 11,706,861 $1,170,686,065 $23,227.90
03-Aug-15 7,099,516,184,307 50,821,092 50,821 14,179,085 $1,417,908,463 $28,133.10
14-Aug-15 8,598,773,298,472 61,553,356 61,553 17,173,386 $1,717,338,634 $34,074.18
26-Aug-15 10,414,639,578,109 74,552,032 74,552 20,800,017 $2,080,001,680 $41,269.87
07-Sep-15 12,613,975,712,232 90,295,733 90,296 25,192,510 $2,519,250,952 $49,985.14
In other words something has got to give by the end of the year, or actually before December 1
UPDATE!!!
This thread is just a quick attempt to project the minimum cost per BTC over the next year assuming the growth in the hash rate next year matches the growth in the hash rate over the last year.
tl;dr: either the growth in the hash rate must slow down or the price of BTC must go up, a lot.
Using the following conversion factors, constants and assumptions:
In other words assuming everyone in the network pays $0.10 per kWh and everyone has miners that burn 1 W per GH/s (1 J/GH) then we can calculate the average production cost for each BTC over the last year as follows:
Continued in next post...
This thread is just a quick attempt to project the minimum cost per BTC over the next year assuming the growth in the hash rate next year matches the growth in the hash rate over the last year.
tl;dr: either the growth in the hash rate must slow down or the price of BTC must go up, a lot.
Using the following conversion factors, constants and assumptions:
Code:
GH/s per Diff 0.007158388055
Blocks/Period 2016
BTC/Period 50400
Watts per GH/s 1 (assumed constant for the next year - it may go down)
USD/kWh $0.10
In other words assuming everyone in the network pays $0.10 per kWh and everyone has miners that burn 1 W per GH/s (1 J/GH) then we can calculate the average production cost for each BTC over the last year as follows:
Code:
Hash Rate Power Energy Cost Cost
Date Difficulty Delta Days GH/s kW kWh $/Period $/BTC
--------- -------------- ------ ---- ----------- ------- ---------- ---------- ------
24-Aug-13 65,750,060 470,664 471
04-Sep-13 86,933,018 32.22% 11 622,300 622 164,287 $16,429 $0.33
14-Sep-13 112,628,549 29.56% 10 806,239 806 193,497 $19,350 $0.38
25-Sep-13 148,819,200 32.13% 11 1,065,306 1,065 281,241 $28,124 $0.56
06-Oct-13 189,281,249 27.19% 11 1,354,949 1,355 357,706 $35,771 $0.71
16-Oct-13 267,731,249 41.45% 10 1,916,524 1,917 459,966 $45,997 $0.91
26-Oct-13 390,928,788 46.02% 10 2,798,420 2,798 671,621 $67,162 $1.33
05-Nov-13 510,929,738 30.70% 10 3,657,433 3,657 877,784 $87,778 $1.74
17-Nov-13 609,482,680 19.29% 12 4,362,914 4,363 1,256,519 $125,652 $2.49
29-Nov-13 707,408,283 16.07% 12 5,063,903 5,064 1,458,404 $145,840 $2.89
10-Dec-13 908,350,862 28.41% 11 6,502,328 6,502 1,716,615 $171,661 $3.41
21-Dec-13 1,180,923,195 30.01% 11 8,453,506 8,454 2,231,726 $223,173 $4.43
02-Jan-14 1,418,481,395 20.12% 12 10,154,040 10,154 2,924,364 $292,436 $5.80
13-Jan-14 1,789,546,951 26.16% 11 12,810,272 12,810 3,381,912 $338,191 $6.71
24-Jan-14 2,193,847,870 22.59% 11 15,704,414 15,704 4,145,965 $414,597 $8.23
05-Feb-14 2,621,404,453 19.49% 12 18,765,030 18,765 5,404,329 $540,433 $10.72
17-Feb-14 3,129,573,175 19.39% 12 22,402,699 22,403 6,451,977 $645,198 $12.80
28-Feb-14 3,815,723,799 21.92% 11 27,314,432 27,314 7,211,010 $721,101 $14.31
13-Mar-14 4,250,217,920 11.39% 13 30,424,709 30,425 9,492,509 $949,251 $18.83
24-Mar-14 5,006,860,589 17.80% 11 35,841,051 35,841 9,462,037 $946,204 $18.77
05-Apr-14 6,119,726,089 22.23% 12 43,807,374 43,807 12,616,524 $1,261,652 $25.03
17-Apr-14 6,978,842,650 14.04% 12 49,957,264 49,957 14,387,692 $1,438,769 $28.55
29-Apr-14 8,000,872,136 14.64% 12 57,273,348 57,273 16,494,724 $1,649,472 $32.73
12-May-14 8,853,416,309 10.66% 13 63,376,190 63,376 19,773,371 $1,977,337 $39.23
24-May-14 10,455,720,138 18.10% 12 74,846,102 74,846 21,555,677 $2,155,568 $42.77
05-Jun-14 11,756,551,917 12.44% 12 84,157,961 84,158 24,237,493 $2,423,749 $48.09
18-Jun-14 13,462,580,115 14.51% 13 96,370,373 96,370 30,067,556 $3,006,756 $59.66
29-Jun-14 16,818,461,371 24.93% 11 120,393,073 120,393 31,783,771 $3,178,377 $63.06
12-Jul-14 17,336,316,979 3.08% 13 124,100,084 124,100 38,719,226 $3,871,923 $76.82
25-Jul-14 18,736,441,558 8.08% 13 134,122,719 134,123 41,846,288 $4,184,629 $83.03
08-Aug-14 19,729,645,941 5.30% 14 141,232,462 141,232 47,454,107 $4,745,411 $94.15
19-Aug-14 23,844,670,039 20.86% 11 170,689,401 170,689 45,062,002 $4,506,200 $89.41
31-Aug-14 27,428,630,902 15.03% 12 196,344,784 196,345 56,547,298 $5,654,730 $112.20
Continued in next post...
Hey BurtW,
Maybe time for an update?
-Chris
Maybe time for an update?
-Chris
Thanks for putting this together. I'm confident that J/gh will decrease enough to mitigate this, but the possibility that all mining hardware producers fail at making a more efficient miner is highly improbable (especially because there are so many now) but not impossible!
More efficient miners can be made, but at what cost?
For example if it cost a manufacturer $700 to make a 1TH miner at .7watts/gh efficiency today
and it only mines 1 btc lifetime,
how many people would buy it over $840
assuming the manufacturer only wanted to make a 20% markup.
It already seems some farms are shutting down because the miners can not be bought at prices that can justify the cost of the machines versus the bitcoins they can mine in their lifetime, so they are buying coins instead or just stopping the mining and capital investment.
small miners with spot setups could make out well.
anyone own a beef jerky business ?
any one know of a food dehydrator company that is look to sell its product?
here is a great food dehydrator
http://www.lemproducts.com/product/refurbished-stainless-steel-dehydrator/refurbished-products
it uses 800 watts of power looks like it is a match for a pair of s-3's
this is a good example of product synergy.
better yet here is a kiln company for drying wood. a huge business chance right here right now.
Just saying someone here in the usa dealing s-3s should talk with this company. they do electric heated kilns.
http://www.novadrykiln.com/pdfs/NDK_timbertike.pdf
Thanks for putting this together. I'm confident that J/gh will decrease enough to mitigate this, but the possibility that all mining hardware producers fail at making a more efficient miner is highly improbable (especially because there are so many now) but not impossible!
More efficient miners can be made, but at what cost?
For example if it cost a manufacturer $700 to make a 1TH miner at .7watts/gh efficiency today
and it only mines 1 btc lifetime,
how many people would buy it over $840
assuming the manufacturer only wanted to make a 20% markup.
It already seems some farms are shutting down because the miners can not be bought at prices that can justify the cost of the machines versus the bitcoins they can mine in their lifetime, so they are buying coins instead or just stopping the mining and capital investment.
And this is why home users except in cheap electricity areas will basically be subsidizing the network, there's no way most people in "green" Europe can mine at $0.10. All of California is 2x to 4 that right now.
Yes, about that... I get 1174.66 * 2 = 2,349.33
BTW Reward-Drop ETA: 2016-08-12 00:40:37 UTC (110 weeks, 2 days, 4 hours, 30 minutes)
But it will probably pull in even more.
BTW Reward-Drop ETA: 2016-08-12 00:40:37 UTC (110 weeks, 2 days, 4 hours, 30 minutes)
But it will probably pull in even more.
Thanks for putting this together. I'm confident that J/gh will decrease enough to mitigate this, but the possibility that all mining hardware producers fail at making a more efficient miner is highly improbable (especially because there are so many now) but not impossible!
I am curious about your statement. How much more room do you think there is in this number? At 28nm everyone is getting about 0.8 J/GH. Going from 55nm to 28nm only reduced the consumption from 0.9 J/GH to 0.8 J/GH. Lets say we can make 18nm chips. The best case I would see is 0.5 J/GH and it would probably be higher.In other words I don't see any way to get another order of magnitude change in this number - only smaller incremental improvements at this point.
Running the numbers at 0.5 J/GH is not a whole lot different than 0.8 J/GH and 0.5 J/GH may be a total pipe dream.
so lets say in 6 months the network drops to .5 J/GH and the that is close to the brick wall. what would you predict price on JAN.1 2015 ?
per BTC.
Thanks for putting this together. I'm confident that J/gh will decrease enough to mitigate this, but the possibility that all mining hardware producers fail at making a more efficient miner is highly improbable (especially because there are so many now) but not impossible!
I am curious about your statement. How much more room do you think there is in this number? At 28nm everyone is getting about 0.8 J/GH. Going from 55nm to 28nm only reduced the consumption from 0.9 J/GH to 0.8 J/GH. Lets say we can make 18nm chips. The best case I would see is 0.5 J/GH and it would probably be higher.In other words I don't see any way to get another order of magnitude change in this number - only smaller incremental improvements at this point.
Running the numbers at 0.5 J/GH is not a whole lot different than 0.8 J/GH and 0.5 J/GH may be a total pipe dream.
so lets say in 6 months the network drops to .5 J/GH and the that is close to the brick wall. what would you predict price on JAN.1 2015 ?
per BTC.
Thanks for putting this together. I'm confident that J/gh will decrease enough to mitigate this, but the possibility that all mining hardware producers fail at making a more efficient miner is highly improbable (especially because there are so many now) but not impossible!
I am curious about your statement. How much more room do you think there is in this number? At 28nm everyone is getting about 0.8 J/GH. Going from 55nm to 28nm only reduced the consumption from 0.9 J/GH to 0.8 J/GH. Lets say we can make 18nm chips. The best case I would see is 0.5 J/GH and it would probably be higher.In other words I don't see any way to get another order of magnitude change in this number - only smaller incremental improvements at this point.
Running the numbers at 0.5 J/GH is not a whole lot different than 0.8 J/GH and 0.5 J/GH may be a total pipe dream.
I believe half a joule is not unattainable for this year. 16nm is most companies' current focus, and some have designs underway for 14 and 10 (these are still 1+ years out, but it is something to note).
Running some quick numbers though, difficulty will increase at the same rate if not even higher. Taking all of this into account I firmly believe we will be paying over $5000 for a coin in one year.
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