Burt, could you re-compute please for 0.35w/h case?
I think you can just multiply all of the numbers on the right by 0.35
Topic: Projected Minimum Cost per BTC over the next year - page 7. (Read 18793 times)
I think you can just multiply all of the numbers on the right by 0.35
Burt, could you re-compute please for 0.35w/h case?
I follow ASICMINER pretty closely and they are coming out with 0.35 J/GH miners imminently. *shrugs* That's not confirmed until someone has a working miner in front of them... but I wouldn't confidently exclude the possibility. I think we will probably see 0.1 J/GH sometime in 2015.
Sure, if either of those things happen then the numbers will adjust accordingly. However, I have to wonder why the 0.35 J/GH specification has not been included in Greg's thread. Perhaps he has stopped updating it? If you have a link to an actual spec and you can post it in that thread then maybe we can get him to update the OP in that thread.
Here are the chip specs:
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/annasicminer-publicly-looking-for-potential-customerspartners-for-new-chips-438359
This is why the next 12-24 months will be very, very interesting for BTC. I do think we are already seeing a leveling off to a certain degree of hash power, probably somewhat related to the recent price drop which affects for-profit farms (i.e., powering down if price is below a certain threshold). But the very large farms are getting equipment and electricity for very cheap so that scenario does not apply to them unless there is a severe price crash (which I don't see happening due to the broad adoption phase we are currently in). I can't help but believe that BTC value will sky rocket due to the raw cost to mine and the lack of new supply being introduced into the marketplace.
I follow ASICMINER pretty closely and they are coming out with 0.35 J/GH miners imminently. *shrugs* That's not confirmed until someone has a working miner in front of them... but I wouldn't confidently exclude the possibility. I think we will probably see 0.1 J/GH sometime in 2015.
Sure, if either of those things happen then the numbers will adjust accordingly. However, I have to wonder why the 0.35 J/GH specification has not been included in Greg's thread. Perhaps he has stopped updating it? If you have a link to an actual spec and you can post it in that thread then maybe we can get him to update the OP in that thread.
I follow ASICMINER pretty closely and they are coming out with 0.35 J/GH miners imminently. *shrugs* That's not confirmed until someone has a working miner in front of them... but I wouldn't confidently exclude the possibility. I think we will probably see 0.1 J/GH sometime in 2015.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electricity_generation
Shows the 2008 worldwide power generation at 2,311.4 GW (20,261 TWh of energy).
If the current growth rate continues then one year from now the entire Bitcoin network will consume a minimum of 29,072 MW or 29.072 / 2,311.4 = 1.26% of all electrical power generated on the planet and it will cost a minimum of $15,747 to produce each new BTC.
So...
I am betting on a leveling off of the growth rate this year.
Shows the 2008 worldwide power generation at 2,311.4 GW (20,261 TWh of energy).
If the current growth rate continues then one year from now the entire Bitcoin network will consume a minimum of 29,072 MW or 29.072 / 2,311.4 = 1.26% of all electrical power generated on the planet and it will cost a minimum of $15,747 to produce each new BTC.
Code:
Hash Rate Power Energy Cost Cost
Date Difficulty TH/s MW MWh $/Period $/BTC
--------- ----------------- ---------- ------ --------- ------------ ----------
12-Mar-15 4,061,289,098,283 29,072,283 29,072 7,936,733 $793,673,336 $15,747.49
So...
I am betting on a leveling off of the growth rate this year.
Cool!
OK, so, assuming efficiency doubles... we can halve the cost of bitcoins produced in our heads pretty easily...
Just to be crystal clear, you are assuming 25 btc per block with no transaction fees right?
OK, so, assuming efficiency doubles... we can halve the cost of bitcoins produced in our heads pretty easily...
Just to be crystal clear, you are assuming 25 btc per block with no transaction fees right?
But, these numbers already assume the current best case efficiency and assume that the entire network is only burning 1J/GH. This is not the case. The network currently burns a lot more than that because not everyone has the most efficient, up to date, latest and greatest miners. See Greg's thread here: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/break-even-difficulty-by-hardware-efficiency-power-cost-value-of-btc-281279 which shows that the most efficient miners on the market are at about 0.8 J/GH plus overhead which is why I used 1 J/GH as a best case estimate.
Yes, in the assumptions I show 50,400 BTC per adjustment period. Each adjustment period is exacly 2,016 blocks so these numbers assume 50,400 / 2,016 = 25 BTC per block. I do not take fees into consideration because they are small compared to the block reward and I am trying to calculate the USD and energy cost of producing new BTC.
Also, it's interesting to keep in mind that these are variable costs... and that the capital costs are quite significant.
It would be interesting to do a calculation that lumped amortized capital costs in together with the variable costs to get a better sense of much bitcoins costs to produce in practical terms. (clearly this would be much more subjective... but as long as the parameters were easy for people to play with...)
It would be interesting to do a calculation that lumped amortized capital costs in together with the variable costs to get a better sense of much bitcoins costs to produce in practical terms. (clearly this would be much more subjective... but as long as the parameters were easy for people to play with...)
Cool!
OK, so, assuming efficiency doubles... we can halve the cost of bitcoins produced in our heads pretty easily...
Just to be crystal clear, you are assuming 25 btc per block with no transaction fees right?
OK, so, assuming efficiency doubles... we can halve the cost of bitcoins produced in our heads pretty easily...
Just to be crystal clear, you are assuming 25 btc per block with no transaction fees right?
Over the last year the average increase in the difficulty and hash rate was 23.92% per adjustment period and the average length of each adjustment period was 11.38 days.
Assuming the network growth rate over the next year is the same as it was this last year we get:
Assuming the network growth rate over the next year is the same as it was this last year we get:
Code:
Hash Rate Power Energy Cost Cost
Date Difficulty TH/s MW MWh $/Period $/BTC
--------- ----------------- ---------- ------ --------- ------------ ----------
24-Mar-14 5,266,766,872 37,702 38 10,293 $1,029,253 $20.42
04-Apr-14 6,526,449,656 46,719 47 12,754 $1,275,425 $25.31
16-Apr-14 8,087,417,983 57,893 58 15,805 $1,580,476 $31.36
27-Apr-14 10,021,732,041 71,739 72 19,585 $1,958,487 $38.86
08-May-14 12,418,687,065 88,898 89 24,269 $2,426,909 $48.15
20-May-14 15,388,935,546 110,160 110 30,074 $3,007,367 $59.67
31-May-14 19,069,595,359 136,508 137 37,267 $3,726,656 $73.94
12-Jun-14 23,630,579,651 169,157 169 46,180 $4,617,982 $91.63
23-Jun-14 29,282,440,667 209,615 210 57,225 $5,722,492 $113.54
04-Jul-14 36,286,089,639 259,750 260 70,912 $7,091,173 $140.70
16-Jul-14 44,964,841,429 321,876 322 87,872 $8,787,209 $174.35
27-Jul-14 55,719,339,970 398,861 399 108,889 $10,888,896 $216.05
07-Aug-14 69,046,053,494 494,258 494 134,933 $13,493,256 $267.72
19-Aug-14 85,560,193,384 612,473 612 167,205 $16,720,515 $331.76
30-Aug-14 106,024,114,653 758,962 759 207,197 $20,719,656 $411.10
11-Sep-14 131,382,509,124 940,487 940 256,753 $25,675,295 $509.43
22-Sep-14 162,806,015,974 1,165,429 1,165 318,162 $31,816,202 $631.27
03-Oct-14 201,745,262,850 1,444,171 1,444 394,259 $39,425,865 $782.26
15-Oct-14 249,997,832,322 1,789,581 1,790 488,556 $48,855,575 $969.36
26-Oct-14 309,791,245,073 2,217,606 2,218 605,406 $60,540,642 $1,201.20
06-Nov-14 383,885,790,658 2,748,003 2,748 750,205 $75,020,494 $1,488.50
18-Nov-14 475,701,952,889 3,405,259 3,405 929,636 $92,963,576 $1,844.52
29-Nov-14 589,478,312,272 4,219,715 4,220 1,151,982 $115,198,206 $2,285.68
11-Dec-14 730,467,214,878 5,228,968 5,229 1,427,508 $142,750,821 $2,832.36
22-Dec-14 905,177,240,458 6,479,610 6,480 1,768,934 $176,893,352 $3,509.79
02-Jan-15 1,121,673,663,040 8,029,375 8,029 2,192,019 $219,201,947 $4,349.24
14-Jan-15 1,389,950,774,416 9,949,807 9,950 2,716,297 $271,629,732 $5,389.48
25-Jan-15 1,722,393,258,358 12,329,559 12,330 3,365,970 $336,596,970 $6,678.51
05-Feb-15 2,134,347,914,361 15,278,491 15,278 4,171,028 $417,102,794 $8,275.85
17-Feb-15 2,644,832,123,808 18,932,735 18,933 5,168,637 $516,863,657 $10,255.23
28-Feb-15 3,277,411,764,061 23,460,985 23,461 6,404,849 $640,484,897 $12,708.03
12-Mar-15 4,061,289,098,283 29,072,283 29,072 7,936,733 $793,673,336 $15,747.49
This thread is just a quick attempt to project the minimum cost per BTC over the next year assuming the growth in the hash rate next year matches the growth in the hash rate over the last year.
tl;dr: either the growth in the hash rate must slow down, the power consumption must go down, or the price of BTC must go up, a lot.
Using the following conversion factors, constants and assumptions:
In other words assuming everyone in the network pays $0.10 per kWh and everyone has miners that burn 1 W per GH/s (1 J/GH) then we can calculate the average production cost for each BTC over the last year as follows:
Continued in next post...
tl;dr: either the growth in the hash rate must slow down, the power consumption must go down, or the price of BTC must go up, a lot.
Using the following conversion factors, constants and assumptions:
Code:
GH/s per Diff 0.007158388055
Blocks/Period 2016
BTC/Period 50400
Watts per GH/s 1 (assumed constant for the next year - it may go down)
USD/kWh $0.10
In other words assuming everyone in the network pays $0.10 per kWh and everyone has miners that burn 1 W per GH/s (1 J/GH) then we can calculate the average production cost for each BTC over the last year as follows:
Code:
Hash Rate Power Energy Cost Cost
Date Difficulty Delta Days GH/s kW kWh $/Period $/BTC
--------- ------------- ------ ---- ---------- ------ --------- -------- ------
14-Mar-13 4,847,647 34,701 35
24-Mar-13 6,695,826 38.13% 10 47,931 48 11,504 $1,150 $0.02
05-Apr-13 7,673,000 14.59% 12 54,926 55 15,819 $1,582 $0.03
17-Apr-13 8,974,296 16.96% 12 64,241 64 18,502 $1,850 $0.04
30-Apr-13 10,076,293 12.28% 13 72,130 72 22,505 $2,250 $0.04
12-May-13 11,187,257 11.03% 12 80,083 80 23,064 $2,306 $0.05
25-May-13 12,153,412 8.64% 13 86,999 87 27,144 $2,714 $0.05
05-Jun-13 15,605,633 28.41% 11 111,711 112 29,492 $2,949 $0.06
16-Jun-13 19,339,258 23.92% 11 138,438 138 36,548 $3,655 $0.07
29-Jun-13 21,335,329 10.32% 13 152,727 153 47,651 $4,765 $0.09
11-Jul-13 26,162,876 22.63% 12 187,284 187 53,938 $5,394 $0.11
22-Jul-13 31,256,961 19.47% 11 223,749 224 59,070 $5,907 $0.12
03-Aug-13 37,392,766 19.63% 12 267,672 268 77,090 $7,709 $0.15
13-Aug-13 50,810,339 35.88% 10 363,720 364 87,293 $8,729 $0.17
24-Aug-13 65,750,060 29.40% 11 470,664 471 124,255 $12,426 $0.25
04-Sep-13 86,933,018 32.22% 11 622,300 622 164,287 $16,429 $0.33
14-Sep-13 112,628,549 29.56% 10 806,239 806 193,497 $19,350 $0.38
25-Sep-13 148,819,200 32.13% 11 1,065,306 1,065 281,241 $28,124 $0.56
06-Oct-13 189,281,249 27.19% 11 1,354,949 1,355 357,706 $35,771 $0.71
16-Oct-13 267,731,249 41.45% 10 1,916,524 1,917 459,966 $45,997 $0.91
26-Oct-13 390,928,788 46.02% 10 2,798,420 2,798 671,621 $67,162 $1.33
05-Nov-13 510,929,738 30.70% 10 3,657,433 3,657 877,784 $87,778 $1.74
17-Nov-13 609,482,680 19.29% 12 4,362,914 4,363 1,256,519 $125,652 $2.49
29-Nov-13 707,408,283 16.07% 12 5,063,903 5,064 1,458,404 $145,840 $2.89
10-Dec-13 908,350,862 28.41% 11 6,502,328 6,502 1,716,615 $171,661 $3.41
21-Dec-13 1,180,923,195 30.01% 11 8,453,506 8,454 2,231,726 $223,173 $4.43
02-Jan-14 1,418,481,395 20.12% 12 10,154,040 10,154 2,924,364 $292,436 $5.80
13-Jan-14 1,789,546,951 26.16% 11 12,810,272 12,810 3,381,912 $338,191 $6.71
24-Jan-14 2,193,847,870 22.59% 11 15,704,414 15,704 4,145,965 $414,597 $8.23
05-Feb-14 2,621,404,453 19.49% 12 18,765,030 18,765 5,404,329 $540,433 $10.72
17-Feb-14 3,129,573,175 19.39% 12 22,402,699 22,403 6,451,977 $645,198 $12.80
28-Feb-14 3,815,723,799 21.92% 11 27,314,432 27,314 7,211,010 $721,101 $14.31
13-Mar-14 4,250,217,920 11.39% 13 30,424,709 30,425 9,492,509 $949,251 $18.83
Continued in next post...
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