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Topic: Quantitative Easing - page 3. (Read 6688 times)

legendary
Activity: 2884
Merit: 1115
Leading Crypto Sports Betting & Casino Platform
June 06, 2014, 02:02:55 AM
#94

The theory is that if people don't get rewarded for saving they will spend more and stimulate the economy. Like anything this kind of stimulus has a pretty steep law of diminishing returns curve.

They assume people have saving and not loaded with debt. What this will do is encouraging more debt at the expense of saver.

That was one of the reasons the US recovery has been so stalled. People actually started paying off debt instead of adding more. If average people get that you tighten your belt and reduce your debt burden in a down economy why can't the politicians?

A culture of self entitlement, that's why when they say certain congress members are paying for expensive wine hotels and cheese the public scrutinizes their lifestyle.
Also if you have a lot of money on the taxpayer dollar and not your own I can't see them economizing.

Although the counterarguement for that is that it prevents corruption and bribery and them getting jobs in industry afterwards as lobbyists but I am not so certain on the effect of that relationship.
sr. member
Activity: 406
Merit: 250
June 06, 2014, 01:52:25 AM
#93

The theory is that if people don't get rewarded for saving they will spend more and stimulate the economy. Like anything this kind of stimulus has a pretty steep law of diminishing returns curve.

They assume people have saving and not loaded with debt. What this will do is encouraging more debt at the expense of saver.

That was one of the reasons the US recovery has been so stalled. People actually started paying off debt instead of adding more. If average people get that you tighten your belt and reduce your debt burden in a down economy why can't the politicians?
legendary
Activity: 2884
Merit: 1115
Leading Crypto Sports Betting & Casino Platform
June 06, 2014, 01:50:13 AM
#92

The theory is that if people don't get rewarded for saving they will spend more and stimulate the economy. Like anything this kind of stimulus has a pretty steep law of diminishing returns curve.

They assume people have saving and not loaded with debt. What this will do is encouraging more debt at the expense of saver.

I assume that debt will come back to bite the economy in the long run
It's sort of like binge drinking makes the user feel good in the short run and then you get that massive hangover the next day
full member
Activity: 231
Merit: 100
June 05, 2014, 10:27:07 PM
#91

The theory is that if people don't get rewarded for saving they will spend more and stimulate the economy. Like anything this kind of stimulus has a pretty steep law of diminishing returns curve.

They assume people have saving and not loaded with debt. What this will do is encouraging more debt at the expense of saver.
sr. member
Activity: 406
Merit: 250
June 05, 2014, 10:11:42 PM
#90
In other news the ECB (European bank) just changed to negative interest rates.  This will be interesting.  Are banks actually going to charge you money for them holding your money?  Or will they go no lower than 0% interest?  In any case it's all messed up - and we're going to have another recession soon too, this is just crazy, what will central banks do then?

They're trying to stimulate inflation.  The Central Banks only have monetary policies as tools.  If nothing works then the politicians need to step in.

The negative interest rates are bank rates its supposed to incentivize banks to lend money and people to borrow.  However, if nobody is willing to borrow (because of negative outlook).  The money will probably end up in the equities markets or somewhere banks seek return

The theory is that if people don't get rewarded for saving they will spend more and stimulate the economy. Like anything this kind of stimulus has a pretty steep law of diminishing returns curve.
hero member
Activity: 784
Merit: 500
June 05, 2014, 10:06:55 PM
#89

You can also use a website like Shadowstats, which calculates inflation under the old methods along with the new.





http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/inflation-charts

Oh please don't post graphs from shadowstats.  The website is not legit and the guy has been debunked by many people

http://voxrationalis.wordpress.com/2011/05/15/the-absurdity-of-shadowstats-inflation-estimates/
http://azizonomics.com/2013/06/01/the-trouble-with-shadowstats/
http://blog.jparsons.net/2011/03/shadow-stats-debunked-part-i.html
http://blog.jparsons.net/2011/06/shadow-stats-debunked-part-ii.html


Please refer to MIT's "billion Prices Project"  which show similar stats to CPI

http://bpp.mit.edu/usa/
member
Activity: 117
Merit: 10
My Precious!
June 05, 2014, 09:38:01 PM
#88
"but but but... user: "Trading" said there was no inflation...

so i believe him..."


-said no one ever!
hero member
Activity: 672
Merit: 500
June 05, 2014, 07:18:45 PM
#87
Therefore, no inflation happens.

There are plenty of arguments suggesting that the way inflation is calculated has been changed in order to keep the 'publicly announced' inflation rate palatable to the gen pop.

The other way we have seen inflation is this; retail products, especially food related have maintained their prices however their net weight in grams has fallen.

Packets of crisps that go for $4.50 for 180g now only give 165g.

Deodorant gives less mls.

In the UK you've also seen horse meat substituted for beef in lasagne.

It goes on and on.




You can also use a website like Shadowstats, which calculates inflation under the old methods along with the new.





http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/inflation-charts
hero member
Activity: 784
Merit: 500
June 05, 2014, 03:26:42 PM
#86
In other news the ECB (European bank) just changed to negative interest rates.  This will be interesting.  Are banks actually going to charge you money for them holding your money?  Or will they go no lower than 0% interest?  In any case it's all messed up - and we're going to have another recession soon too, this is just crazy, what will central banks do then?

They're trying to stimulate inflation.  The Central Banks only have monetary policies as tools.  If nothing works then the politicians need to step in.

The negative interest rates are bank rates its supposed to incentivize banks to lend money and people to borrow.  However, if nobody is willing to borrow (because of negative outlook).  The money will probably end up in the equities markets or somewhere banks seek return
hero member
Activity: 700
Merit: 500
June 05, 2014, 01:57:18 PM
#85
In other news the ECB (European bank) just changed to negative interest rates.  This will be interesting.  Are banks actually going to charge you money for them holding your money?  Or will they go no lower than 0% interest?  In any case it's all messed up - and we're going to have another recession soon too, this is just crazy, what will central banks do then?
full member
Activity: 231
Merit: 100
June 05, 2014, 01:43:37 PM
#84
Actually, most of the "printing" money is just numbers in a computer. The FED or ECB just credit the account of a bank.

They don't even have to waste paper. No one can use it as toilet paper.

That is because rarely do anyone demand large sum of fiat dollar.

When regional major bank branch run out of paper money, they can request the regional federal reserve to deliver fiat money to serve their need.

After the major bank branch received the fiat, they can proceed with wiping their ass with the paper.

legendary
Activity: 1455
Merit: 1033
Nothing like healthy scepticism and hard evidence
June 05, 2014, 12:14:20 PM
#83
Actually, most of the "printing" money is just numbers in a computer. The FED or ECB just credit the account of a bank.

They don't even have to waste paper. No one can use it as toilet paper.
newbie
Activity: 14
Merit: 0
June 05, 2014, 08:44:49 AM
#82
Quantitative Easing is to Inflation as Non-Consensual Sexual Intercourse is to Rape! Either way you're getting fucked.

https://twitter.com/CoinMobs/statuses/471474742898094080

http://www.dcclothesline.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/federal-reserve-printing-money.jpg

Why the hell govts are still printing this currency and wasting paper<
thanks
legendary
Activity: 961
Merit: 1000
June 05, 2014, 07:57:13 AM
#81
ECB just announced negative deposit rates for commercial banks as a measure to fight deflation.
legendary
Activity: 961
Merit: 1000
June 05, 2014, 05:32:25 AM
#80
Therefore, no inflation happens.

There are plenty of arguments suggesting that the way inflation is calculated has been changed in order to keep the 'publicly announced' inflation rate palatable to the gen pop.

The other way we have seen inflation is this; retail products, especially food related have maintained their prices however their net weight in grams has fallen.

Packets of crisps that go for $4.50 for 180g now only give 165g.

Deodorant gives less mls.

In the UK you've also seen horse meat substituted for beef in lasagne.

It goes on and on.


hero member
Activity: 784
Merit: 500
June 05, 2014, 12:22:12 AM
#79

And Krugman is correct to an extent.  The MBSs on the banks balance sheet can't be de-leveraged.  You have a situation w no liquidity because its all tied up in toxic assets.  I agree w Bernanke for buying these assets to free up liquidity.  But I also agree w Koo that buying long term bonds won't spill the QE into the real economy.  Instead, it gets stuck in the financial sector because there are no borrowers.  You see things like asset portfolio rotation which inflate the equities markets --  good for investors, but not for the unemployed.

But I also see Koo's point that QE only alleviate short term problems that might be difficult to deal with once the recovery starts.  The problem is when the govt buys long term bonds, it makes it difficult to exit QE without affecting sharp rise in long term rates.

Here is an interesting chart of what Koo calls "QE trap" 




"The QE "trap" happens when the central bank has purchased long-term government bonds as part of quantitative easing. Initially, long-term interest rates fall much more than they would in a country without such a policy, which means the subsequent economic recovery comes sooner (t1). But as the economy picks up, long-term rates rise sharply as local bond market participants fear the central bank will have to mop up all the excess reserves by unloading its holdings of long-term bonds.

Demand then falls in interest rate sensitive sectors such as automobiles and housing, causing the economy to slow and forcing the central bank to relax its policy stance. The economy heads towards recovery again, but as market participants refocus on the possibility of the central bank absorbing excess reserves, long-term rates surge in a repetitive cycle I have dubbed the QE "trap."

In countries that do not engage in quantitative easing, meanwhile, the decline in long-term rates is more gradual, which delays the start of the recovery (t2). But since there is no need for the central bank to mop up large quantities of funds, everybody is no more relaxed once the recovery starts, and the rise in long-term rates is far more gradual. Once the economy starts to turn around, the pace of recovery is actually faster because interest rates are lower. This is illustrated in Figure 2."


Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/koo-says-no-one-can-refute-the-qe-trap-2013-10#ixzz33jos1g1e

In any case its a complex issue and many debates on how to go about it.  I disclose that I do follow heterodox economics Post-Keynesian & MMT, and therefore I prefer post-Keynesians like Minsky, Keen & Koo over Krugman.  But I do respect Krugman for publicly speaking out against austerity based economics
member
Activity: 112
Merit: 10
June 05, 2014, 12:18:15 AM
#78
QE is a weapon wielded against those who use manipulation and such methods to unbalance their trade advantages against US.

First major economy to be hit by inflation was china, but people forget this fact.

legendary
Activity: 1455
Merit: 1033
Nothing like healthy scepticism and hard evidence
hero member
Activity: 784
Merit: 500
June 04, 2014, 09:57:49 PM
#76
Of note:  He's not saying QE is ineffective in regular recessions, he's saying its ineffective when we are in a 'balance sheet recession".   The main reason being private sector had just experienced a credit bubble & crash so in a sense they are traumatized from taking on too much debt

Another interesting thing.  The difference about Japan's QE and the US is that the BOJ used short term private paper to do QE.  The BOJ took on debt at 3 month maturity so they could easily remove the money from circulation.  MBS are long term private paper, but treasuries are long term public bonds.  He thinks this makes it hard to get out of the QE due to the compounding effect of interest possibly ballooning debt to unsustainable levels.

This is the debate between the neo-Keynesians (Krugman) & post-Keynesians (Keen, Koo)
sr. member
Activity: 434
Merit: 250
June 04, 2014, 09:49:55 PM
#75
Quantitative Easing do not work , oddly enough, these "accomplished economists" didn't predict the housing bubble did they?
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