Topic: Rally!!!!! - page 31. (Read 81262 times)

how you arrived from this


is beyond logic.

And no,  I am not going to start buying bitcoins now from you at 50$ and this does not make my points any less valid and yours any less ridiculous and childish.

I however, can and do take advantage of markets being wrong (and they often are, suprise, surprise) by buying or not selling bitcoins or not selling any more than I absolutely have to at current prices.

Yo WTV, Eight Dollars Bitches

I really hoping for a good drop to jump on the train tho.... come to papa 5.30

Au contraire. Let us establish that there is little reason to assume manipulation by the major exchanges or major players on them, so we can assume that this price is, in fact, the price most people are willing to buy/sell at (as I argued previously, if you have a different price, I would be glad to exploit it).

For each buyer, there is a seller. This means that for every 5.7 $ USD of people gaining an interest in the value of bitcoin, there is also 1 BTC of people losing an interest in the value of bitcoin (equivalent to gaining an interest in the value of USD). Clearly, if you believe that the fair market value should be in the double digits, as a rational actor you will have gained as much interest in BTC as you would be willing to risk. Someone must have sold these bitcoins to you; this person is evidently acting to lose interest in BTC.

The effect I outline is your claim of people disagreeing with your fair value as ridiculous. It would suffice to state that this statement would apply to half the volume of BTCUSD trades, the selling side. And if an argument states that all these people are ridiculous, it follows that the argument is likely ridiculous.

I'll give you another reason why the prices could have been suppressed lately (by your bellowed free and allegedly efficient market).

Look at massive lending bubble on GLBSE. It is possible that large portion of BTC loaned was converted into fiat and funnelled somewhere outside of Bitocoin economy (like $ denominated ponzi schemes). If so with current up leg (and implosion of some well known ponzi schemes) could work its way through the system and cause a string of BTC defaults. As such this would effectively freeze high interest BTC lending market and stop this constant sale pressure, causing further USDBTC rise and further defaults, and so on in a vicious spiral.

Whomever, borrowed 100 BTC and converted it out at 5$ will find it much more difficult to pay 6-10% per week when he needs to convert fiat back to BTC at 6$. Whomever have borrowed at insane loan shark rates BTC and converted it to USD will find it much more difficult to not default on that loan at 6$.

This all is not going to end well for many bears (BTC borrowers).

As Warren Buffet said: "You only find out who is swimming naked when the tide goes out."

Maybe $8 in 2013.

its shows us that, demand is growing "bit-pay growth", miners are confident value will not drop GPU -> FPGA change of guard (multiply independent parties), project development is not slowing (their only getting more ambitious).

improvements all round. price lingers behind? Maybe!

8$

Just pretend they are yelling about what they expect it to be in the near future.

dree12,  the joint: No offence, but both of you, in this case, are being simply ridiculous and really do not deserve any more detailed response.

I can't believe sometimes how the forum promotes a free market, yet yells about what the fair market value of bitcoin is. The fair market value is what people are willing to buy it for or what people are willing to sell it for, which is at the moment $5.7. If you disagree, name your fair market value and I will buy/sell from/to you at that value.

Why do you think valuation should be in "middle 2 digit" right now?

Check out what I highlighted in bold from your post.  This is the only non-speculative indicator you listed that suggests that the value of Bitcoin should increase. 

The value of Bitcoin should only increase when people buy them and use them.

Now, the value of Bitcoin may increase due to the other things you mentioned, and I would be inclined to agree that it will.  But, they are in no way definitive reasons that the value of Bitcoin should be in double digits.

- bitinstant and massive availability of "cash for btc" trade
- bit-pay massive growth, reportedly 200-300% per month
- bitcoin magazine
- GPU -> FPGA change of guard
- investments being rounded up for bitcoin mining ASIC's by multiply independent parties (meaning by the end of 2013-2014 51% could be out of reach of most viable attackers today and that we will be measuring hashing power in petahashes and exahashes)
- upcoming FIRST EVER bitcoin subsidy cut
- massive and mostly positive news flow
- many significant projects in development, including zipconf, kronos, hermes, ellet hardware wallet, that bitcoin card, proper hosting services suitable for hosting bitcoin wallets etc...
- improvement on the decentralisation front. For example, say, mtgox (or and other exchange or biz) folds now, it is only problem for their customers, the rest of the world will just move on.  Deep bit is taking relatively small fraction of mining power as opposed to flirting with 51% level.

We are now at some very much solid footing as compared to about 1 year ago when we 2 digit valuations of BTC. I would think that market is grossly undervaluing Bitcoin and its potential.

If a (centralised) company with anything close to Bitcoin's "product" and growth history and potential to effectively replace most of modern banking system which has estimated valuation at almost 10% of worlds assets (excluding all the off-balance shit, lol). Such a company would be valued at billions already, not some puny 50MM which is a valuation reserved for smalltime 3 man teams starting some scam and trading it on pink sheets.

Do post if I have missed something of note.

I would think that fair Bitcoins valuation should be in middle 2 digit right now, not 5-6$.

Just to be clear, the official word is that there are delays due to Dwolla's change in their TOS and all requests will be processed.  But yes, if you need USD funds quickly, buying bitcoin and selling them elsewhere is the only way to make that happen. (Or buying bitcoin and selling for a different currency then paying huge currency conversion fees to the wiring banks).

Euro withdrawals took longer than their stated time period (10 calendar days, for me)

Or any of the other currencies MtGox supports, unless the suggestion is MtGox isn't paying all currencies, rather than just USD.

In the short term it is bullish for bitcoin if MtGox can't meet its obligations, but longer term it's quite damaging.

MtGox not paying fiat might be very strongly positive in the short term, but it would probably result in extra selling at other markets and off-market pretty quickly.

The way possible would be buying bitcoin...

Rumours of MtGox not paying USD?  Any evidence of that?  If true, seems like a reason to get money out of MtGox any way possible, rather than convert it to bitcoin.

* Rumors of European capital controls strong positive for bitcoin. Move currency around the world with no govt interaction.
* Rumors of MtGox not paying USD: Strong positive for bitcoin. What else would you do with the USD in your acct?

Anything could happen, but there is a non-zero risk of waking up to a $10+ bitcoin any given night.

I agree that there is a risk of this train leaving the station with such momentum that a bubble will form. However Bitcoin in my book very much deserves to leave at least $5.x way behind. It's a good question if $7 is justified yet or if double digits are justified, but with everything going on and the way Bitcoin is doing I just think that there is some room for growth as far as the Bitcoin market cap is concerned.

The growth in terms of price will always come in spurts because speculators are predicting stuff all the time. It's up to all of us to see in the coming weeks and coming months what is actually sustainable growth and what is not. The fact that so many of us have learned so much about how markets work and how the Bitcoin market works specifically will make it very difficult for a large bubble to form. But I guess we'll see about that.

All that is true; but it's not happened in the last three weeks.  For this to be real growth it should be slower; this is speculation about the real growth.  If that growth doesn't keep up with the speculation then it's a bubble and it'll burst again.

That's not the end of the world of course.

Long term, definitely bullish, but this speedy growth seems too quick to me.  Of course I accept the alternative is possible: the long stability was a sort of reverse bubble and this is the correction.