Record High Margin Debt With Most Traders Betting Against This Market - page 3.

galdur

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Quote from: galdur on September 21, 2015, 01:53:36 AM

This dip here could be the beginning of the crash of 2016. As you can see the crash of 2008 took a year or so.

In any case, expect turbulance and volatility ahead

Fed raised rates, finally. Yeah, I think that double top there portends the beginning of the crash of 2016. It´ll probably take a year at least, perhaps longer.

galdur

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This dip here could be the beginning of the crash of 2016. As you can see the crash of 2008 took a year or so.

In any case, expect turbulance and volatility ahead

galdur

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Quote from: Q7 on September 04, 2015, 09:17:14 AM

It's just a matter of time that these things will all come crashing down. In fact I'm amazed that despite fiat get created out of thin air everything still manages to hang on for so long. And so it goes on..

Yeah well, like Mike Maloney puts it, fiat and debt and consumerism is a sweet lie that most people just want to believe. And of course they always get plenty to support their faith from bubblevision and the thugs they vote into office.

Q7

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It's just a matter of time that these things will all come crashing down. In fact I'm amazed that despite fiat get created out of thin air everything still manages to hang on for so long. And so it goes on..

galdur

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Why Has The Stock Market Crash Taken So Long? Mike Maloney with Rick Rule

More: http://hiddensecretsofmoney.com/videos Here's an outtake from Season 2 of Hidden Secrets Of Money.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2uLnF4nwW4Y

galdur

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What was really driving stocks today was simple - USDJPY fun-durr-mentals..

zerohedge.com naturally

EternalWingsofGod

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The fun part is that the US is still saying their economy is recovering at a steady pace.
But this is a fairly strong domino effect so its only a matter of time till those high margin traders make a killing in this market.
(Good week to be short)
Black Monday 2015

galdur

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Quote from: OROBTC on August 24, 2015, 06:59:34 PM

...

Many, many observers think that we may just be getting started re the declines. If they continue (and every night after 9:00 PM you can check US futures at marketwatch.com) that might foretell a bad economy.

A recession would mean more pain for stock investors. Which would eventually affect real estate, etc.

The US$ now may be a good bet, now that it got hit when the "Carry Traders" took much of their money home to Europe and Japan. The USA is still the "cleanest dirty shirt in the closet."

Yeah, I think there,s blood left in the U.S. bull yet. But a serious correction can only do this stupendous bubble good

and it,s probably into an -any excuse to sell is good- phase now. Then there,s the good old fed, hike or QE4? At some point this other bubble, the mommy of them all going strong for 30 years straight now is bound to burst I guess.

OROBTC

legendary

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...

Many, many observers think that we may just be getting started re the declines. If they continue (and every night after 9:00 PM you can check US futures at marketwatch.com) that might foretell a bad economy.

A recession would mean more pain for stock investors. Which would eventually affect real estate, etc.

The US$ now may be a good bet, now that it got hit when the "Carry Traders" took much of their money home to Europe and Japan. The USA is still the "cleanest dirty shirt in the closet."

galdur

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World markets plunge as sell off continues

The benchmark Shanghai Composite declined 8.5%, wiping out all gains made this year. Many companies listed in Shanghai, including some large state-owned firms, fell by the maximum daily limit of 10%.
China's smaller Shenzhen Composite lost 7.7%.
In Japan, the Nikkei closed down 4.6%, and Australia's ASX All Ordinaries shed 4.0%. Seoul's KOSPI Composite lost 2.5%. Asian currencies were trading lower against the U.S. dollar.

(CNN)

Bitcoin not benefiting from this meltdown

galdur

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VIX Sept 50 Calls In Play: Someone Is Buying Market Collapse Insurance

It's amazing to think that just earlier this week VIX traded at 13 (and that a few weeks ago the S&P was testing all time highs): as of this moment the vol index is up nearly 100% since Tuesday (and all those 'sure thing' shorters of VXX are about to get some very unpleasant margin calls). ...

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-08-21/vix-sept-50-calls-play-someone-bidding-market-collapse-insurance

galdur

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China devalued, will de-peg next. That should be a rather big bang.

It,s impossible to time exactly but the big crash will start in the east and spread from there as markets open.

Best of luck, g

galdur

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The S&P is bouncing around right at the 200-day MA, about 2060. A very infrequent visit there for the last several years. If it fails to hold that for maybe 1-2 weeks or so maybe a downtrend is in place. But I think that there´s some blood in this cow, ehm bull left yet. We´ll see.

rayhan

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be your self

Market is likely to fall down further. The charts show the same, the speculators say the same.But the fall will be temporary ,this is what i feel. The fall was followed by the Grexit. So maybe the market is just facing the consequences. Anyway it's a bad news for investors like us ,who wait round the year to grab the rare opportunities.

EternalWingsofGod

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Quote from: chennan on June 05, 2015, 03:01:24 AM

No one can precisely predict the time of bubble burst. There are still many ppl who are buying up and ignoring the looming risk. They are attracted by the profit.

When you see a buildup like this the odds are in your favour that if you switch to a cash position hold out a few months and wait your likely to be on the winning end of the market since bubble collapses can impact valuations significantly.
If your a risk taker playing the squeeze against the Fed and measuring sentiment can be a double scoop.
That said it never hurts to wait when their is potential for a down burst as you get more shares from the weakened leverage position holders, with Greece in the Eurozone, high leverage markets in China and pushing new highs in the American exchanges the patterns seem to be indicators of some shakeup how much we will need to wait and see to determine.

galdur

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The world is defenceless against the next financial crisis, warns BIS

Monetary policymakers have run out of room to fight the next crisis with interest rates unable to go lower, the BIS warns

By Peter Spence, Economics Correspondent11:30AM BST 28 Jun 2015

The world will be unable to fight the next global financial crash as central banks have used up their ammunition trying to tackle the last crises, the Bank for International Settlements has warned.
The so-called central bank of central banks launched a scatching critique of global monetary policy in its annual report. The BIS claimed that central banks have backed themselves into a corner after repeatedly cutting interest rates to shore up their economies.
These low interest rates have in turn fuelled economic booms, encouraging excessive risk taking. Booms have then turned to busts, which policymakers have responded to with even lower rates.
Claudio Borio, head of the organisation’s monetary and economic department, said: “Persistent exceptionally low rates reflect the central banks’ and market participants’ response to the unusually weak post-crisis recovery as they fumble in the dark in search of new certainties.” ... more

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11704051/The-world-is-defenseless-against-the-next-financial-crisis-warns-BIS.html

galdur

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Bitcoin behaving well. I guess the third try for 300 since January is in the works. If it holds that and preferably 350 and improves from there it´s time to get seriously bullish. But at some point the halving a year from now will start to be priced in. Perhaps this is the beginning of that.

galdur

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Quote from: OROBTC on June 29, 2015, 11:07:06 PM

...

galdur

That's a great chart there (S&P and margin debt), it sure puts those two indices into perspective.

I am not into technical analysis, but I do like studying financial history. That chart is part of today's lesson. The other part of today's lesson is what happened in stock markets around the world re Greece.

Next up? China? Spain/Portugal/Italy?

Bespoke put out a report analyzing days similar to today in market history. Here’s what they had to say regarding the Dow Jones break down below its 200 day moving average:

Today’s 350-point decline for the Dow Jones Industrial Average left the index below its 200-day for the first time in 170 trading days going back to October 2014. So with this massive break down, is the market doomed?

During the current bull market going back to 2009, the index has had five streaks of 150+ trading day closes above its 200-day moving average. Over the last twenty years, we’ve had ten occurrences.

…at least over the last twenty years, the market has bounced back very well in the near term. Over the next month, the Dow has actually averaged a gain of 4.15%! Notably, the last streak ended on 10/10/14 after 171 trading days, just one more day than the current streak lasted. Following that break, the index struggled over the next week but then surged over the next month.

Basically, breaks below the 200-day after long streaks of closes above the 200-day have been better buy signals than sell signals over the last twenty years…

https://www.stocktrader.com/go/bespoke.htm

OROBTC

legendary

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...

galdur

That's a great chart there (S&P and margin debt), it sure puts those two indices into perspective.

I am not into technical analysis, but I do like studying financial history. That chart is part of today's lesson. The other part of today's lesson is what happened in stock markets around the world re Greece.

Next up? China? Spain/Portugal/Italy?

galdur

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MONDAY, JUNE 29, 2015

Today’s 34% VIX Spike and What to Expect Going Forward

One of the top posts of 2013 was All-Time VIX Spike #11 (and a treasure trove of VIX spike data), in which I sliced and diced the twenty largest one-day VIX spikes in the history of the VIX. Nineteen of those spikes were in excess of 30% and with all-time #5 arriving later in 2013 and all-time #15 and #16 following in 2014, I was compelled to comment that despite the seemingly low VIX and concerns about complacency, 2014 Had Third Highest Number of 20% VIX Spikes.

Fast forward to the present and for all the talk of a low VIX, some forget that the second day of 2015 had a 28.1% VIX spike and then today, we saw a 34.5% VIX spike, the eleventh largest in the history of the VIX and enough to trigger an update to the table of largest one-day VIX spikes below. ... more

http://vixandmore.blogspot.com/2015/06/todays-34-vix-spike-and-what-to-expect.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+VixAndMore+%28VIX+and+More%29

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