Repeating the price cycle every 4 years - page 3.

leea-1334

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Quote from: wiss19 on June 29, 2021, 04:13:38 PM

There have been a ton of people out there who end up with making predictions based on the history and then they have ended up losing quite a lot of money, why? Because crypto doesn't move in cycles each day, it is similar that is true but doesn't follow it day by day, so what happens is something that suppose to happen, happens a week early and you end up losing money because of it.

Also because they think just because they think the cycle repeats in the same pattern and that they got the right call. Cycles have happened and they have been similar but never exactly the same,,, so far if you are patient enough the patterns hold but you can never really predict when the performance matches the past.

And again,,, we cannot guarantee the cycle repeats.

Sayeds56

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Quote from: pooya87 on June 26, 2021, 11:41:22 PM

Quote from: odolvlobo on June 26, 2021, 04:05:02 PM

You are ignoring the sell pressure of all the bitcoins already in circulation. The sell pressure only goes up (even with the halving) as more bitcoins are added to the supply.

That's assuming that the demand (buying pressure in opposite of sell pressure) is not going up faster. Considering that bitcoin adoption is still in its very early stages and the demand is increasing, we can safely say that this assumption is not true.

Well said. The assumption of 4 years cycle will become invalid now as we have witnessed massive support by Institutions and adoption of Bitcoin to reasonable level during the last quarter of 2020 to 1st quarter of 2021 which is very encouraging sign for long term investors of Bitcoin, though currently Bitcoin is passing through correction phase which is expected to end soon and we will see new ATH by the end of 2021.

alevlaslo

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I look at all good coins, if at least one of them has fallen to the bottom of the price, therefore the entire market will not fall lower from this time

wiss19

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I do not think that 4 year cycle is a must, and that is what we have seen during this increase. Instead of waiting and staying around the same price at halving for a year and increasing like hell, the price actually went up a ton for a year and then when it suppose to go up it started to crash. Do not put yourself in the same logic as the people before you, history repeating itself is not a guarantee and you will only be upset if you do not be ready for anything else to happen.

There have been a ton of people out there who end up with making predictions based on the history and then they have ended up losing quite a lot of money, why? Because crypto doesn't move in cycles each day, it is similar that is true but doesn't follow it day by day, so what happens is something that suppose to happen, happens a week early and you end up losing money because of it.

leea-1334

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Quote from: yohananaomi on June 28, 2021, 04:52:43 AM

This year's halving is 2020 meaning the peak is late 2021 and not the beginning or the middle of the year. I still have faith that the 4 year effect (halving) will occur later this year and the price will definitely be higher than 2017 ATH, probably 10X-20X times that. we have to be optimistic and wait for it.

I still have the same faith too,,, although I have to admit it is just based on the cycle repeating itself and absolutely nothing more. Fundamentals I guess are of course stronger than ever but I cannot really tell if it is anything to justify a higher ATH than we have had.

It does feel like 63k ATH is a little bit underwhelming right?

bakasabo

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Quote from: zanezane on June 28, 2021, 03:56:46 AM

Quote from: alevlaslo on June 28, 2021, 12:31:01 AM

Can anyone explain this? I don't have an intimate understanding of the graph, is it the same as the other image? About bitcoin dominance slowly shrinking overtime? Is it good or not?

I think that Bitcoin dominance decrease only shows that that there is either someone that takes a major part of a market due to update/release (Ethereum in our case) or the beginning of an alt season. To bad we just dont know how this altseason will represent itself. Will all alt grow significantly or they simply wont go down.

I agree with topic started about Bitcoin being cyclical. I think that we say and will see growth only after halvings. Right now we will face ups and down for a very long time. So be ready not to lose control and sell everything.

magneto

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History does tend to repeat itself in cycles, eh?

It shouldn't come as a surprise to anyone that we do operate in 4-year cycles. The current cycle is likely at its tail end by the looks of it as markets have cooled off significantly and FOMO has been replaced by a substantial amount of fear.

Long term investors should not fret whatsoever. I can say with relative certainty that with the current developments around DeFi in general, BTC will be central to that movement and will play a major role come the next bull market in another 4 years time.

lixer

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Quote from: alevlaslo on June 22, 2021, 02:58:57 AM

BTC will grow to 300 000 dollars soon, price became 1100 after 6 months:

I agree that bitcoin may test $300k with this cycle but I really could not figure out what you are referring by "after six months" and 1100. As per my observation also, bitcoin market is having repeating cycles because we are having halving to be repeated for every four years and pumps and dumps are happening in a pattern so everything will occur in a recognizable pattern for sure.

Bitcoin prices may get doubled or tripled from the current levels before we are entering into the 4th quarter of 2021 and then the 4th quarter of 2021 will be magical as real FOMO will happen at that times.

adaseb

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Quote from: leea-1334 on June 28, 2021, 03:01:46 AM

Quote from: adaseb on June 27, 2021, 11:51:36 PM

We don't know if the cycle peaked however at $64K, the only way we know we are in another cycle is when we lost at least 75% of our value like in the previous bubbles. Basically going from $1100 to $150 and $20000 to $3000. So far we only lost about half our value. And there is a chance we might get a repeat of 2013.

In 2013 we peaked in April, and went from $250 to $80 or so, then everybody assumed bitcoin would retest the previous ATH of $35 however we bottomed in July and rallied hard in Oct-Nov and peaked at $1100.

Not saying we are in this cycle however unless we break $30K and head to like below $20K this cycle might of not ended yet. Might just be summer slowdown.

That would be pretty scary for anyone,,, even for me, to see another 75% loss of value now because the old ATH was 20k and we made a new one only at 3x,,, which I know logically does not mean anything but because we have seen 10x and 20x and much more in the past, this does not feel like it is enough at all. Hope we do not see $15 again though.

You need to realise its easier for bitcoin to go from $1 to $10, then $10 to $100, then $1000, etc. However its not going to forever keep going up 10x each cycle. When we were at $64K, you need to realise that most people don't have $64K in their savings to buy an entire bitcoin. So they only buy partials.

So someone who bought BTC at say $5000, he might sell an entire coin to maybe 10 different people. And those people eventually if bitcoin keeps going up and up will sell each of their portions of a coin to 100 other people and so on and so on. The market cap is going to grow so much it won't be sustainable.

So just because we did 3x, that is still pretty impressive.

pooya87

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Quote from: zanezane on June 28, 2021, 03:56:46 AM

Can anyone explain this? I don't have an intimate understanding of the graph, is it the same as the other image? About bitcoin dominance slowly shrinking overtime? Is it good or not?

In short it is just simple mathematics and exploiting that math to get a higher rank for shitcoins.

We have this wrong characteristics defined for cryptocurrencies which comes from stock market (not wrong there) called market capitalization which is computed by multiplying supply and price.
Then we have this false sorting of cryptocurrencies based on this false characteristic on many websites pioneered by coinmarketcap.com.

In math when you have z=x*y and if you can't increase y (price) you can increase x (supply) to increase the final result z (market cap). And when you have sum(z) where you add all marketp caps of thousands of altcoins you end up with a massive fake result.

What this chart shows is a ratio where it divides bitcoin's market cap by all the market caps of all the altcoins combined then they call it bitcoin "dominance"!

This is fake because majority of altcoins have fake circulating supplies. For example the top altcoins ETH, XRP, BNB,... all have massive premines which are coins that are NOT in circulation but only owned by their creators when they instantly created millions out of thin air during launch or any time they want. But the market cap is computed using all those fake supplies too. So for example a shitcoin that has a price of $0.6 suddenly gains a massive market cap!

bitterguy28

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Is this what we called Halving season mate? and this is what trend mostly believe and i am one of those .

so meaning after this great pump we are aiming for dumping season but i think this will last at least this end year of 2021.

Quote from: alevlaslo on June 28, 2021, 12:31:01 AM

Btc dominance

The momentum now is increasing again mate.

yohananaomi

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Quote from: leea-1334 on June 28, 2021, 03:01:46 AM

That would be pretty scary for anyone,,, even for me, to see another 75% loss of value now because the old ATH was 20k and we made a new one only at 3x,,, which I know logically does not mean anything but because we have seen 10x and 20x and much more in the past, this does not feel like it is enough at all. Hope we do not see $15 again though.

Fear is a logical thing that happens to all humans when they are experiencing something that is currently being carried out, but we are given the opportunity to analyze well and see the journey in the past. from there we can draw that conclusion, so if we look at the Halving period (4 years) that the first and second halvings have occurred, which results in a year after the halving and at the end of the year a renewable ATH is formed.

This year's halving is 2020 meaning the peak is late 2021 and not the beginning or the middle of the year. I still have faith that the 4 year effect (halving) will occur later this year and the price will definitely be higher than 2017 ATH, probably 10X-20X times that. we have to be optimistic and wait for it.

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Quote from: alevlaslo on June 28, 2021, 12:31:01 AM

Can anyone explain this? I don't have an intimate understanding of the graph, is it the same as the other image? About bitcoin dominance slowly shrinking overtime? Is it good or not?

leea-1334

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Quote from: adaseb on June 27, 2021, 11:51:36 PM

We don't know if the cycle peaked however at $64K, the only way we know we are in another cycle is when we lost at least 75% of our value like in the previous bubbles. Basically going from $1100 to $150 and $20000 to $3000. So far we only lost about half our value. And there is a chance we might get a repeat of 2013.

In 2013 we peaked in April, and went from $250 to $80 or so, then everybody assumed bitcoin would retest the previous ATH of $35 however we bottomed in July and rallied hard in Oct-Nov and peaked at $1100.

Not saying we are in this cycle however unless we break $30K and head to like below $20K this cycle might of not ended yet. Might just be summer slowdown.

That would be pretty scary for anyone,,, even for me, to see another 75% loss of value now because the old ATH was 20k and we made a new one only at 3x,,, which I know logically does not mean anything but because we have seen 10x and 20x and much more in the past, this does not feel like it is enough at all. Hope we do not see $15 again though.

alevlaslo

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Btc dominance

tbct_mt2

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Quote from: BrewMaster on June 27, 2021, 09:37:09 AM

because bitcoin is decentralized it doesn't need anyone's permission to reach a certain price. if there is enough demand for it then it will be reached.
you should also know that people were saying the same thing in each cycle for the ATH of that cycle. you'd be surprised to see someone once made the same claim as you but about $1.

People look at early adopters and say they were lucky to buy Bitcoin with a few cents, $1, $10, $100 or $1,000. Then later people will look at buyers at $64,000 and say they are lucky by buying Bitcoin below $100,000. I don't know when such statement will be made, this year, next 4 years or next 8 years. It will appear definitely.

Quote from: skarais on June 27, 2021, 11:28:37 AM

By the time bitcoin down to $5K, is $65K possible? So at least this applies for now, mate.

I think it will because the S2SF model is still validated and it says the top price would be $288,000. I only hope for a half of that price.

Quote

So I would answer it probably with a scenario where there should be higher demand growth from now on. I'm sure you already know a lot about what can increase the demand for bitcoin in the market so you shouldn't hesitate any longer.

Supply and demand are not solid in crypto market because people can join, get out in a seconds. It is different than stocks.

Quote

The current widespread FUD about bitcoin has caused the bitcoin price to stay between $30K-$35K, if bitcoin fail to break through $40k in July then I'm pretty sure bitcoin will have another correction. $150K is currently an uncertain expectation, but there is a chance bitcoin will be able to hit it as nothing else can prevent it from rising as demand increases.

It is stimulating than in previous summer dumps, from which bitcoin x10 its price. So if it repeats that x10, from $28,800 bitcoin will achieve $288,000 that is the price given by S2SF model. Coincidence? Grin

adaseb

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We don't know if the cycle peaked however at $64K, the only way we know we are in another cycle is when we lost at least 75% of our value like in the previous bubbles. Basically going from $1100 to $150 and $20000 to $3000. So far we only lost about half our value. And there is a chance we might get a repeat of 2013.

In 2013 we peaked in April, and went from $250 to $80 or so, then everybody assumed bitcoin would retest the previous ATH of $35 however we bottomed in July and rallied hard in Oct-Nov and peaked at $1100.

Not saying we are in this cycle however unless we break $30K and head to like below $20K this cycle might of not ended yet. Might just be summer slowdown.

skarais

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Quote from: BlackHatCoiner on June 27, 2021, 11:41:54 AM

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Yes, anyone is free to assume while for most of the time we have seen many analyzes which are not 100% correct. El-Salvador may be able to increase demand in the long term but no one knows for sure what the future hold. We are currently in a bearish period after $65K was reached, while the price has been sideways for some time although $30K is a strong support. Apart from "hold your breath" it is still possible to do one more thing which is "don't be influenced by FOMO and FUD".

But I'm pretty sure the 4 year cycle has affected the pump and dump price. The halving won't set the price but it has at least increased demand and affected price.

chikading2016

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I also notice that every 4 years there will be a bull run that happens. I also ask if this is still happen in the next 4 years because if this will happen it is more profitable if we buy it today and wait for another 4 years with another ATH. But there is no assurance that this could still happen so i invested a few amounts in bitcoins and altcoins for good and for safety.

odolvlobo

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Quote from: pooya87 on June 26, 2021, 11:41:22 PM

Quote from: odolvlobo on June 26, 2021, 04:05:02 PM

You are ignoring the sell pressure of all the bitcoins already in circulation. The sell pressure only goes up (even with the halving) as more bitcoins are added to the supply.

That's assuming that the demand (buying pressure in opposite of sell pressure) is not going up faster. Considering that bitcoin adoption is still in its very early stages and the demand is increasing, we can safely say that this assumption is not true.

Supply and demand are independent. The supply of bitcoins is always increasing. The demand is not. Thus, we have price swings. In the long run, both have increased with demand outpacing supply. I hope we can agree on those.

However, a halving is a moment in time in which the production slows (but the supply continues to increase and demand does whatever it does). If the halving truly has an effect on prices due to the change in production, we should see something happen to the price at that time, but we don't. The two big price increases we have seen 1 - 2 years after the halvings must be due to something else. Maybe there is something going on, but it can't be attributed to the production cuts.

Topic: Repeating the price cycle every 4 years - page 3. (Read 903 times)