Topic: Repeating the price cycle every 4 years - page 4. (Read 863 times)

Everything in a free market doesn't need anyone's permissions to reach a certain agreed price, it is unrelated to its decentralization.

Does it? Bitcoin was falling for more than a year and a half after its $19k peak. Since the early 2020, it made a 1000%+, but I wouldn't say that it applies for now too. The only measurable things in a free market is the supply and the demand. Due to Bitcoin's supply predictability, I'd say that we can only make assumptions regarding the halvings; everything else is irrelevant.

I guess that El Salvador made a very bullish choice, but as a wise man would say — “hold your breath”.

By the time bitcoin down to $5K, is $65K possible? So at least this applies for now, mate.
So I would answer it probably with a scenario where there should be higher demand growth from now on. I'm sure you already know a lot about what can increase the demand for bitcoin in the market so you shouldn't hesitate any longer. The current widespread FUD about bitcoin has caused the bitcoin price to stay between $30K-$35K, if bitcoin fail to break through $40k in July then I'm pretty sure bitcoin will have another correction. $150K is currently an uncertain expectation, but there is a chance bitcoin will be able to hit it as nothing else can prevent it from rising as demand increases.

because bitcoin is decentralized it doesn't need anyone's permission to reach a certain price. if there is enough demand for it then it will be reached.
you should also know that people were saying the same thing in each cycle for the ATH of that cycle. you'd be surprised to see someone once made the same claim as you but about $1.

If BTC exactly repeats its 4 year cycle, its patterns, then 8 to 10 years later, bitcoin whales with more than 10k BTC will have their assets bigger than national capital of some nations.

I don't believe the IMF, World Bank, G7 nations will allow BTC to achieve $1M to easily. Challenges from governments will be bigger with BTC new all time highs.

This year $150k, is it possible? I would happy and satisfy with that price.

That's assuming that the demand (buying pressure in opposite of sell pressure) is not going up faster. Considering that bitcoin adoption is still in its very early stages and the demand is increasing, we can safely say that this assumption is not true.

One of the ways to predict the price of btc is to use a historical approach.  the price of btc is like a cycle that repeats itself.  so this can be used to measure the possibilities that can happen. purely from supply and demand.  havling affects the increase in demand, and the supply of coins becomes less.  as usual after the pump, the market will be bullish.  soon there will be a Fud and a bear market.  and so on until you lose / profit. Be careful

Looking at charts through your lens is scary not to hodl any crypto(bitcoin to be precise) in preparation for the big move! Call it a bluff or whatever  you like but this is very convincing am feeling bullish more than ever,time to secure the bag.

I guess after we get over the China dilemma we headed out  for the moon🌙.

You are ignoring the sell pressure of all the bitcoins already in circulation. The sell pressure only goes up (even with the halving) as more bitcoins are added to the supply.

I would say even if this is true, that means we lived the high increase after the halving a bit earlier than expected this year and that's about it. Everyone is expecting a "18 months after halving" increase but we already had it, and that was it. I would say that we WILL go above 300k eventually, maybe not right now but we definitely will do it, however I am not sure if it will be today or not, maybe it will some other time.

Long story short there is a good amount of money to be made from crypto in the long run, but probably not this summer, just make sure you buy constantly at the bottom and then you can end up buying when it goes up to 300k. Another thing that you should be careful about is the fact that price will go up to 300k not in a quick manner which means you will have to keep all of your crypto for a long time, so do not invest money that you will need now, invest only the money that you know you can keep it there for years.

Say you produce a good and you sell it for 100 USD the unit. You have a complete infrastructure, machinery, workers, and all the costs you can imagine. You are in the business, so selling this good for 100 USD pays all your expenses leaving a profit. Now imagine that every 4 years you must reduce the price per unit 50%. You now have the same costs to produce the good + a projection of inflation for the next 4 years but you get half the money. What would you do? Increasing the good price to sustain your profit and maybe adding some value to face the next 4 years of inflation sounds like a good plan.

Once ppl realizes about this behavior, they can make money getting your product previous to the price rise + toying with the assets. Speculation starts and your prices are pumped beyond what you projected for the next 4 years.

It's pretty straightforward. Take a look at the historical graphics.  It is impossible to ignore this pattern ...

I think no one can really knows about what will happen in next 4 years from now, if we still bullish or bearish, no one can realy I think the bull run that happen easy 4 years is not a cycle it is maybe  something like many new investors are getting in to crypto every year that is why bitcoin price is always increasing, i saw bull run last year 2017 and the price of that bull run is different from the bull run that we experience this year because we reach  60k$.

This is time bear and bull cycle will be different from those previous market cycle as we have now institutional investors who'll manipulate for their own profits. But history repeats in this industry and hopefully, price cycle will be much more longer than previous market whether it's bull or bear, IMHO. TBH, we're almost on the bear market as death cross is done and hoping to see a correction close to $20k , than again rebounding just like previous markets. 

I agree that halving is not as significant an event that some people make it to be but it is still a very significant event that affects price too. Of course there has always been two types of effects, the short term which only happens roughly 2 months prior to the actual date where the market is over hyped and a small bubble shapes which will pop as the date is reached.
And the longer term effect which is directly related to the new supply generation being cut by half. Even though bitcoin has a max supply we are still "printing" more bitcoin every day, these are coins that enter circulation and are mostly sold by miners to pay their bills. Consequently there has to be less sell pressure when we "print" about 900BTC per day in this period versus when we were printing 1800BTC per day in previous period.

Of course I should add that I believe that the main reason why price keeps rising is because of "demand" (not just the supply) which is both more people buying bitcoin and people who already had bitcoin buying more of it.

Although, I do understand your point about patterns. Humans are almost designed to recognize patterns, even if its simply for memory serving purposes, and I also understand that the halving dates are known before they happen. However, I've always seen the halving as a positive event as in theory it should reduce the amount of Bitcoin being injected into the market, therefore volatility should steadily decrease as the block reward reduces or am I missing something?

The price cycle is just a term to describe the maximum amount that the price can reach and the minimum amount possible, knowing that the difference between the two numbers may be so large that it is difficult to make a correct estimate of the price and the price, once it enters that cycle, you guarantee that it will not fall below it Significantly.
So the price cycle is just a measure of the lowest price a bitcoin can reach and not the other way around. It describes the bottom more than it describes the tops.

The price surely does a cycle, but it's never predictable. That's why I hate reading about “patterns”.

I'm inserting a possibly appreciated image. As you can see below, the first epoch was mostly experimental one could say, then in Epoch 2, it was a clear bubble burst. It happened around the first having if I'm not mistaken. The third epoch revealed us again, that during a halving, the price pumped*. We're now, in the third halving, in Epoch 4, as experimental beings of this Blockchain-ized era.


I believe that in each halving, the fluctuation is smaller. I don't believe that it'll exceed the $300k this year.

Hopefully that can be the case for the long-term, that bitcoin market is following a pattern of growth because that alone can help you predict how you are going to buy and sell your bitcoin whenever you want to.

You really think that all this cyclces matters for BTC now? You really think that price movement of $1 trillion asset depends on what it did when it was $1Billion asset (2013 bubble) or $10Billion asset (2014 bubble)? Bitcoin is more and more exposed to global economy rather than its past events. Its "alternative investment asset" during debt bubble and real interest rate being negative 5%. Bitcoin is a legal tender in 6 mln people country now. What happend on chart 10 years ago when BTC was 1000x smaller and only nerds or drug dealers trading it does not matter now.

"bottom" July 1, 2013 (mentioned by OP):  $81
"high" December 5, 2013 (mentioned by you):  $1151
That high is 14.21 times the low ( 14.21 X $81 = $1151)
There's your 14.21X (or 14.21 x's).

"bottom" July 10, 2017 (mentioned by OP):  $2260
"high" December 17, 2017 (mentioned by you): $19650
That high is 8.69 times the low ( 8.69 X $2260  = $19650 )
There's your 8.69X (or 8.69 x's).

For someone that thinks of Bitcoin as an "investment", instead of the currency that they want to acquire while they can because they expect to be spending it eventually, any investment that grows in value by multiples of it's starting value over such a short period of time is apparently exciting. And growth of more than 8 times the starting value is apparently a LOT of multiples (or x's).  


The fact that other events happen isn't necessarily proof that a pattern doesn't exist. He isn't necessarily "hiding" events. It's possible for those events to simply not be a part of the pattern.

For example, I could point out that every time I put food out on my covered porch, the local stray cat comes to eat it within 10 minutes. I might then use this evidence to demonstrate that the food attracts the cat.

If you then came in and pointed out that the cat ALSO comes to my covered porch every time that it rains (when there is no food)... OR if you pointed out that the cat has also shown up on my porch a few times when there was no food out at all... That doesn't mean that the food isn't attracting the cat.  I'm not "hiding" the fact that the cat shows up for additional reasons or at other times.  Those visits may happen, but they aren't relevant to the point I'm trying to make.

I don't know exactly what "a lot of X's" means, but my point is that he is hiding events that don't fit his pattern in order to claim that there is a pattern

Also, there were other significant events that I omitted because they happened more quickly. Such as:

7 ) high June 26, 2019, bottom March 13, 2020 (though it wasn't an ATH)
8 ) high January 8, 2021, bottom January 27, 2021

I am in complete agreement, though nobody has yet described a concrete mechanism by which the halvings affect the price (other than psychological), so I remain skeptical.