1) high April 13, 2013, bottom July 1, 2013, then a lot of X's for the new year
2) high June 5, 2017, bottom July 10, 2017, then a lot of x's for the new year
3) high April 12, 2021, bottom ... july 2021, then a lot of x's for the new year
2) high June 5, 2017, bottom July 10, 2017, then a lot of x's for the new year
3) high April 12, 2021, bottom ... july 2021, then a lot of x's for the new year
Sorry to ruin your pattern, but you neglected to include these ATHs:
4) high June 8, 2011, bottom November 19, 2011
5) high December 5, 2013, bottom January 14, 2015
6) high December 17, 2017, bottom December 15, 2018
Actually, he didn't.
He said:
Quote
1) high April 13, 2013, bottom July 1, 2013, then a lot of X's for the new year
You said:Quote
5) high December 5, 2013 . . .
That December 5, 2013 high you are mentioning IS the lot of X's for the new year that he is talking about.He said:
Quote
2) high June 5, 2017, bottom July 10, 2017, then a lot of x's for the new year
You said:Quote
6) high December 17, 2017 . . .
That December 17, 2017 high you are mentioning IS the lot of X's for the new year that he is talking about.He did leave out the 2011, but that was before any halving ever happened. He's implying that there is a pattern that follows the halving, so any pre-halving behavior is irrelevant.
Note that the post-year-end "bottoms" you mention ($150 on January 14, 2015 and $3120 on December 15, 2018) were BOTH still higher than the respective pre-July "highs" he mentions ($120 on April 13, 2013 and $2530 on June 5, 2017). So, if his "pattern" were to hold, it would mean that anyone that bought at the peak on April 12, 2021 would come out ahead if they can just hold on until the end of the year (even if they sold at the lowest low next year).
Disclaimer: I personally don't believe that the halving has as much effect on price changes as many people claim. The halving is a reliable predictable known event. The markets, therefore, have already taken it into consideration when determining the current price at any moment in time. Human minds are wired to see patterns even when they don't exist. Is there a relationship between the dates of the halvings and the behavior of the price before and/or after? Perhaps, but I'm not convinced.
