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Topic: Reversal! (Read 4518 times)

sr. member
Activity: 448
Merit: 250
this statement is false
February 28, 2013, 12:53:55 AM
#56
For anyone curious, arepo posed some good questions in a thread I started back in April at $5 about OBV.

Thanks for the on-going healthy and articulate skepticism.

thanks for the backup, and you too, oak. Smiley

although i was pretty pretentious in that thread Tongue

Yup, as we all know, bitcoin is a Go game, there is no such thing as a "checkmate" even if the downtrend were confirmed.

and i see what you did there hah
legendary
Activity: 826
Merit: 1001
rippleFanatic
February 27, 2013, 11:28:16 PM
#55
For anyone curious, arepo posed some good questions in a thread I started back in April at $5 about OBV.

Thanks for the on-going healthy and articulate skepticism.
hero member
Activity: 784
Merit: 1000
February 27, 2013, 11:11:39 PM
#54
Arepo is a good guy, he doesn't talk trash, just a bit easily overexcited sometimes. Besides, long term he is a bull, don't be mistaken.

I think we should welcome any bearish input as long as it's not trolling or devised to incite fears.
He doesn't talk trash? "Checkmate, bulls?"  Cheesy

Glad we're all on the same side in the end.



That's what I would call overexcitement, trash is when you say something which you don't even care to back up.

Yup, as we all know, bitcoin is a Go game, there is no such thing as a "checkmate" even if the downtrend were confirmed.
hero member
Activity: 868
Merit: 1002
February 27, 2013, 11:08:42 PM
#53
Arepo is a good guy, he doesn't talk trash, just a bit easily overexcited sometimes. Besides, long term he is a bull, don't be mistaken.

I think we should welcome any bearish input as long as it's not trolling or devised to incite fears.
He doesn't talk trash? "Checkmate, bulls?"  Cheesy

Glad we're all on the same side in the end.

hero member
Activity: 784
Merit: 1000
February 27, 2013, 11:00:03 PM
#52
Arepo is a good guy, he doesn't talk trash, just a bit easily overexcited sometimes. Besides, long term he is a bull, don't be mistaken.

I think we should welcome any bearish input as long as it's not trolling or devised to incite fears.
legendary
Activity: 826
Merit: 1001
rippleFanatic
February 27, 2013, 10:49:00 PM
#51
+1 for the good chart. very good analysis there. i think it may be time to let this thread die, finally.

Thanks. You, good sir, are a scholar and a gentleman. I learned a lot analyzing your charts, the result you see above.

until the reversal
Cheers!
sr. member
Activity: 448
Merit: 250
this statement is false
February 27, 2013, 10:32:24 PM
#50
+1 for the good chart. very good analysis there. i think it may be time to let this thread die, finally.
legendary
Activity: 826
Merit: 1001
rippleFanatic
February 26, 2013, 02:02:56 AM
#49
checkmate, bulls!

the mass index is the most important signal here. generally, the reversal doesn't take trend until the volatility at least peaks, and often not until it reaches back below the marked threshold.





I don't think you are using mass index correctly here. You were using them correctly on the 6-hour and 2-hour charts, because on those scales the bulges corresponded to counter-trend, downward volatility bursts.

But the reason the MACD and the Slow Stochastic don't seem to be confirming is because they are oscillators. They work when the system is closed, but go out of whack if new money is entering the system (or leaving).

That's why the non-oscillating indicators (OBV and Accumulation/Distribution) work better for evaluating the medium/long-term trends, IMHO (see below).


Are you just cherry-picking? I will have different conclusion by choosing different time-scale: more bullish (or less bearish) for the longer term

also, will you post these charts? i am interested in counterdata.

e.g. look at the mass index at 12 hours interval, it is below the blue line since 6 Feb and we had a non-stop rally.






If OBV were unchanged on an upward burst, you could expect a reversal/retrace to follow. But here the trend is up and strong. This should relieve some fear of reversal. As long as we haven't gone exponential and bid depth stays strong, I don't see reason to expect it unless there's some bad news which triggers a big downward burst (one visible on the 12-hour or daily chart).
legendary
Activity: 1288
Merit: 1000
Enabling the maximal migration
February 25, 2013, 09:41:25 AM
#48

I have been waiting for so long to finally buy my first coins, and it is not only me - there are dozens in the same situation that I know, thousands in the city, and millions in the world. We want correction, and we want it now.

Its exactly this reason that its not going to go down. Buy tonight or kiss your opportunity to buy under 30 goodbye. Once it crosses 32, its not going back under.
legendary
Activity: 1414
Merit: 1000
February 25, 2013, 06:41:51 AM
#47
checkmate, bulls!


Looks convincing. How low do you think we'll go? How much do you think I should deposit to Mt.Gox to profit the most?

I have been waiting for so long to finally buy my first coins, and it is not only me - there are dozens in the same situation that I know, thousands in the city, and millions in the world. We want correction, and we want it now.


lol, mayby correction to $60 will be soon :-)
donator
Activity: 1722
Merit: 1036
February 25, 2013, 06:32:47 AM
#46
checkmate, bulls!


Looks convincing. How low do you think we'll go? How much do you think I should deposit to Mt.Gox to profit the most?

I have been waiting for so long to finally buy my first coins, and it is not only me - there are dozens in the same situation that I know, thousands in the city, and millions in the world. We want correction, and we want it now.

sr. member
Activity: 448
Merit: 250
this statement is false
February 24, 2013, 07:59:20 PM
#45
checkmate, bulls!

DAILY scale:

-===-

-===-

the mass index is the most important signal here. generally, the reversal doesn't take trend until the volatility at least peaks, and often not until it reaches back below the marked threshold.

market status: consolidating bull trend

reversal risk: high

a completed MACD crossover should confirm:

-===-

-===-

-arepo
if you profit from me, help keep it free!
18N9md2G1oA89kdBuiyJFrtJShuL5iDWDz
sr. member
Activity: 448
Merit: 250
this statement is false
February 18, 2013, 02:32:46 AM
#44
this thing really is starting to look like it might roll over

still too much noise to say. the bear signals on the daily chart are not strong enough, and we're still within strong support/resistance trendlines.

-===-



-===-

if you notice, the same triangle pattern with bearish breakout happened around the first of February and yet we continued the uptrend thereafter. still could just be a consolidating bull market letting off some steam. nothing conclusive yet...

status: correction

reversal risk: medium

-arepo
if you profit from me, help keep it free!
18N9md2G1oA89kdBuiyJFrtJShuL5iDWDz
legendary
Activity: 3318
Merit: 4606
diamond-handed zealot
February 18, 2013, 01:20:35 AM
#43
this thing really is starting to look like it might roll over
sr. member
Activity: 448
Merit: 250
this statement is false
February 17, 2013, 12:30:36 PM
#42

as always, if you used my analysis to your benefit in any way, please contribute and i will continue to post publicly, free of charge. i do put a lot of effort into my work and subscription-only analysis leaves a bad taste in my mouth.


link ?

... to what? i post the conclusions of my analysis here. if you have any questions or special requests i'll be more than happy to elaborate.
member
Activity: 115
Merit: 10
February 17, 2013, 12:20:51 PM
#41
[deleted]
sr. member
Activity: 448
Merit: 250
this statement is false
February 17, 2013, 12:14:29 PM
#40
you guys are so silly. just as bad as the first irrational bulls on the way up the 2011 bubble. do you think you all are going to be rich? do you really think that an exponentially increasing number of people will pour money into your pockets every day? pyramidal hierarchies are unsustainable and we haven't had a red candle on the weekly scale for almost two months.

in two words: zero-sum

That's a silly and narrow minded argument to make regarding BTC. Zero-sum only applies to a closed market, and a closed marked would require a saturated market cap, which is quite obviously not the case with BTC.

Also, pyramidical hierarchies are unsustainable, sure, but there will always be an underlying pyramidical profit hierarchy in BTC adopters until we get closer to market cap saturation.

both of these are very good points, and have been brought up elsewhere as well.

as for an update for this thread -- anyone seen the btc price lately? this is exactly what i was expecting. i want to wait for the candle to close before i post any more analysis though. have fun trading the swings and i hope someone out their heeded my call and made some money off of the latest knife!

as always, if you used my analysis to your benefit in any way, please contribute and i will continue to post publicly, free of charge. i do put a lot of effort into my work and subscription-only analysis leaves a bad taste in my mouth.

arepo
18N9md2G1oA89kdBuiyJFrtJShuL5iDWDz
KTE
member
Activity: 69
Merit: 10
February 17, 2013, 10:41:52 AM
#39
you guys are so silly. just as bad as the first irrational bulls on the way up the 2011 bubble. do you think you all are going to be rich? do you really think that an exponentially increasing number of people will pour money into your pockets every day? pyramidal hierarchies are unsustainable and we haven't had a red candle on the weekly scale for almost two months.

in two words: zero-sum

That's a silly and narrow minded argument to make regarding BTC. Zero-sum only applies to a closed market, and a closed marked would require a saturated market cap, which is quite obviously not the case with BTC.

Also, pyramidical hierarchies are unsustainable, sure, but there will always be an underlying pyramidical profit hierarchy in BTC adopters until we get closer to market cap saturation.
sr. member
Activity: 504
Merit: 250
February 17, 2013, 05:43:51 AM
#38
The bidwaller must have some extra cash to throw in if this backfires...!

Without the wall there is a lot less on the buy side, you know.
zby
legendary
Activity: 1594
Merit: 1001
February 17, 2013, 05:37:13 AM
#37
My prediction at this point is that the positive feedback got ignited and it will go up until there is some major bad news
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