Reversal! - page 2. | Bitcointalksearch.org

zby

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Quote from: arepo on February 16, 2013, 11:44:02 PM

Quote from: jl2012 on February 16, 2013, 11:23:05 PM

On the other hand, bears are not selling despite the bid walls at 27.15 and 27. $27 should give bears a decent profit no matter what price they bought. Instead, the bid wall at $27 is keep strengthening.

Conclusion: The bull has run for over a month and needs some rest. Plenty of USD on the bid wall waiting for the next knife (read: pig)

you can't rule out a downwards breakout just because it hasn't happened yet... the market depth isn't that asymmetrical. the market is still unsure. if it doesn't happen for a long enough time, the market depth will begin to reflect the support you mentioned above. it's still too soon to call.

I think you are mostly right that the optimists have run out of money - but there is too much bitcoin news - that means new money will come, not now - but it mobilizes bulls to wait a bit more.

arepo

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this statement is false

Quote from: jl2012 on February 16, 2013, 11:23:05 PM

On the other hand, bears are not selling despite the bid walls at 27.15 and 27. $27 should give bears a decent profit no matter what price they bought. Instead, the bid wall at $27 is keep strengthening.

Conclusion: The bull has run for over a month and needs some rest. Plenty of USD on the bid wall waiting for the next knife (read: pig)

you can't rule out a downwards breakout just because it hasn't happened yet... the market depth isn't that asymmetrical. the market is still unsure. if it doesn't happen for a long enough time, the market depth will begin to reflect the support you mentioned above. it's still too soon to call.

jl2012

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Quote from: arepo on February 16, 2013, 11:00:10 PM

Quote from: jl2012 on February 16, 2013, 10:42:54 PM

There is a bid wall at $27 waiting for you. Have you sold everything? This is your last chance!

there is an ask wall at $27.50. have you any usd left? this is your last chance for sub-$50 coins!!!111!!

but of course you don't have usd left. no one does.

anyway, this is normal market depth for a deeply consolidating market after a large move. it's what keeps the price within such a tight range and builds pressure for a breakout.

No, I'm not going to all-in. I'm dollar cost averaging.

The USD on bid side is at its all time high. There is plenty of USD but just don't want to buy @$27.5. Big wales like Mr. Loaded has bought too many cheap coins during last dip so they are not going to buy more, at least temporarily.

On the other hand, bears are not selling despite the bid walls at 27.15 and 27. $27 should give bears a decent profit no matter what price they bought. Instead, the bid wall at $27 is keep strengthening.

Conclusion: The bull has run for over a month and needs some rest. Plenty of USD on the bid wall waiting for the next knife (read: pig)

arepo

sr. member

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this statement is false

Quote from: jl2012 on February 16, 2013, 10:42:54 PM

There is a bid wall at $27 waiting for you. Have you sold everything? This is your last chance!

there is an ask wall at $27.50. have you any usd left? this is your last chance for sub-$50 coins!!!111!!

but of course you don't have usd left. no one does.

anyway, this is normal market depth for a deeply consolidating market after a large move. it's what keeps the price within such a tight range and builds pressure for a breakout.

notme

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Quote from: jl2012 on February 16, 2013, 10:42:54 PM

There is a bid wall at $27 waiting for you. Have you sold everything? This is your last chance!

I'm not so sure:
http://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=buy%20bitcoin%2C%20buy%20usd%2C%20buy%20cad%2C%20buy%20eur%2C%20buy%20gbp&date=1%2F2011%2026m&cmpt=q

jl2012

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Quote from: arepo on February 16, 2013, 09:00:54 PM

Quote from: jojo69 on February 16, 2013, 01:58:24 PM

stillllllllllllll waiting

for what? prices have flattened out since the knife. sure, no reversal has materialized, but the rally has been stopped. the market is in consolidation mode right now and is busy making up its mind... soon we will know.

EDIT:

this is exciting:

-- 6-HR mass index finally into true reversal territory, coinciding with a
-- bearish MACD crossover, and a
-- clear double top on the DPO!

not looking good for silver parity Tongue

There is a bid wall at $27 waiting for you. Have you sold everything? This is your last chance!

arepo

sr. member

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this statement is false

Quote from: jojo69 on February 16, 2013, 01:58:24 PM

stillllllllllllll waiting

for what? prices have flattened out since the knife. sure, no reversal has materialized, but the rally has been stopped. the market is in consolidation mode right now and is busy making up its mind... soon we will know.

EDIT:

this is exciting:

-- 6-HR mass index finally into true reversal territory, coinciding with a
-- bearish MACD crossover, and a
-- clear double top on the DPO!

not looking good for silver parity Tongue

jojo69

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diamond-handed zealot

stillllllllllllll waiting

Luno

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The spike Thursday was possible a test or an attempt to lessen the $30 hump. It also had the effect of making it less attracttive to make a real dump for the weekend?

It could also be an attempt to get out of a leveraged position?

twice the amount sold was bought the following hours!

goodlord666

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100%

Stop.

Rewind.

We can do even better than this.

Vandroiy

legendary

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Quote from: arepo on February 14, 2013, 09:43:55 PM

mass index just now touching threshold on the micro term, which should allow the noise from the movement to dissipate and the new trend to take shape. if prices continue to rise, that invalidates the reversal signal. if prices move within a range or down, that is a validation.

also, a nice bearish divergence forming in the stochastic oscillator.

I always wonder... does it belong to a chart analyst's job to try count the other chart analysts in the market?

Though I understand TA should work if your opponents are mostly trend-followers, isn't it a dangerous game if there are too many people using TA? Everyone would compete who reacts first on any signal. (Isn't TA also vulnerable to manipulative trade activity if it's strongly represented?)

It's apparent that we have people following the trend and also people using chart signals, but what might the ratio between them be? With an excess of either type, we get different instabilities. An excess of trend following makes us unstable against classical bubbles, while an excess of Technical Analysis should make the market very erratic on e.g. a trend break. (The spike two days ago might be a possible indicator for such behavior. No normal market force causes a selling chain reaction and then snaps back to an earlier straight line.)

With just the right ratio, TA could be quite effective. This is the kind of situation it was made for after all. Oh well, I'm too much of a chicken to play it, but I'm cheering for anyone with a good tactic. Grin

cedivad

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Quote from: The Fool on February 16, 2013, 04:15:13 AM

Guys, it's called the weekend.

Like last weekend, uh?

The Fool

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Guys, it's called the weekend.

arepo

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this statement is false

we're seeing major consolidation on both the 2-HR and 6-HR scales... expect a big breakout soon which will either mark the beginning of a mid-term downtrend or invalidate the reversal signal.

mccorvic

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Quote from: arepo on February 15, 2013, 01:34:56 AM

Quote from: jl2012 on February 15, 2013, 01:32:18 AM

As you are still bearish, we are far from the peak of bullish sentiment. Wink

i see what you did there Tongue

but the market exhibits frequency-dependent selection for individual profit. the first bears to wake up from hibernation win.

Well, so far they've been losing money so....maybe 16th to wake up win? I'm not sure.

arepo

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this statement is false

Quote from: jl2012 on February 15, 2013, 02:18:15 AM

Quote from: arepo on February 15, 2013, 02:09:03 AM

Quote from: jl2012 on February 14, 2013, 11:03:15 PM

Are you just cherry-picking? I will have different conclusion by choosing different time-scale: more bullish (or less bearish) for the longer term

also, will you post these charts? i am interested in counterdata.

e.g. look at the mass index at 12 hours interval, it is below the blue line since 6 Feb and we had a non-stop rally.

i see this. the mass index sometimes gives false reversal signals. it has to be confirmed by actual price data. the crossover on the 9th was invalidated by a later breakout. it is just a volatility-triggered warning.

Quote from: arepo on February 14, 2013, 09:43:55 PM

mass index just now touching threshold on the micro term, which should allow the noise from the movement to dissipate and the new trend to take shape. if prices continue to rise, that invalidates the reversal signal. if prices move within a range or down, that is a validation.

jl2012

legendary

Activity: 1792

Merit: 1111

Quote from: arepo on February 15, 2013, 02:09:03 AM

Quote from: jl2012 on February 14, 2013, 11:03:15 PM

Are you just cherry-picking? I will have different conclusion by choosing different time-scale: more bullish (or less bearish) for the longer term

also, will you post these charts? i am interested in counterdata.

e.g. look at the mass index at 12 hours interval, it is below the blue line since 6 Feb and we had a non-stop rally.

arepo

sr. member

Activity: 448

Merit: 250

this statement is false

Quote from: jl2012 on February 14, 2013, 11:03:15 PM

Are you just cherry-picking? I will have different conclusion by choosing different time-scale: more bullish (or less bearish) for the longer term

also, will you post these charts? i am interested in counterdata.

zby

legendary

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Quote from: Spaceman_Spiff on February 15, 2013, 01:49:00 AM

Quote from: arepo on February 15, 2013, 01:39:38 AM

in two words: zero-sum

Yes, zero-sum game between currencies. They are connected tanks.
Bitcoin monetary base in USD is 300M, fed monetary base is 2800 B . I am not saying it's gonna shift in one clear go, but it is obvious that there is still quite some potential left

There will be competing virtual currencies, now they are weak, because BitCoin has not yet reached any real barrier to grow - but there will be some. That was the plan from the beginning (read Satoshi) - and it will happen at some point.

jl2012

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Quote from: arepo on February 15, 2013, 01:39:38 AM

Quote from: zby on February 15, 2013, 01:35:11 AM

That is true - but with that amount of media attention that we get recently there is a huge chance that there will be new money in the market.

markets are also anti-inductive. if everyone expects one behavior, it will do the opposite so as to minimize profits.

you guys are so silly. just as bad as the first irrational bulls on the way up the 2011 bubble. do you think you all are going to be rich? do you really think that an exponentially increasing number of people will pour money into your pockets every day? pyramidal hierarchies are unsustainable and we haven't had a red candle on the weekly scale for almost two months.

in two words: zero-sum

Look at the weekly chart in log scale, it's nothing comparable with the 2011 bubble, and we are still 18% below the top. By the way, most of the weekly candle are green simply because we are still at the take-off stage.

Zero-sum? Yesterday about 1M of USD was spent to pull it back from $21 to $26, and now we still have 3.4M of USD in the bid wall (AFAIK this is the all-time-high). There is lots of new money here.

Topic: Reversal! - page 2. (Read 4516 times)