Reversal! - page 3. | Bitcointalksearch.org

Spaceman_Spiff

legendary

Activity: 1638

Merit: 1001

₪``Campaign Manager´´₪

Quote from: arepo on February 15, 2013, 01:39:38 AM

in two words: zero-sum

Yes, zero-sum game between currencies. They are connected tanks.
Bitcoin monetary base in USD is 300M, fed monetary base is 2800 B . I am not saying it's gonna shift in one clear go, but it is obvious that there is still quite some potential left

zby

legendary

Activity: 1592

Merit: 1001

Quote from: arepo on February 15, 2013, 01:39:38 AM

Quote from: zby on February 15, 2013, 01:35:11 AM

That is true - but with that amount of media attention that we get recently there is a huge chance that there will be new money in the market.

markets are also anti-inductive. if everyone expects one behavior, it will do the opposite so as to minimize profits.

you guys are so silly. just as bad as the first irrational bulls on the way up the 2011 bubble. do you think you all are going to be rich? do you really think that an exponentially increasing number of people will pour money into your pockets every day? pyramidal hierarchies are unsustainable and we haven't had a red candle on the weekly scale for almost two months.

in two words: zero-sum

I kind of agree - but the point here is that there is a global scale. I now expect something like the first bubble - and we are still in the run up to it.

arepo

sr. member

Activity: 448

Merit: 250

this statement is false

Quote from: zby on February 15, 2013, 01:35:11 AM

That is true - but with that amount of media attention that we get recently there is a huge chance that there will be new money in the market.

markets are also anti-inductive. if everyone expects one behavior, it will do the opposite so as to minimize profits.

you guys are so silly. just as bad as the first irrational bulls on the way up the 2011 bubble. do you think you all are going to be rich? do you really think that an exponentially increasing number of people will pour money into your pockets every day? pyramidal hierarchies are unsustainable and we haven't had a red candle on the weekly scale for almost two months.

in two words: zero-sum

zby

legendary

Activity: 1592

Merit: 1001

Quote from: arepo on February 15, 2013, 01:30:25 AM

Quote from: mccorvic on February 15, 2013, 01:28:30 AM

SHORT TERM ANALYSIS: BEARS WILL CONTINUE TO POST TERRIBLE THREADS IN HOPES THAT SOME HOW THERE POSTS WILL ACTUALLY IMPACT THE MARKET.

News at 11.

the market always tops during the peak of bullish sentiment. hope you like holding bags.

That is true - but with that amount of media attention that we get recently there is a huge chance that there will be new money in the market.

arepo

sr. member

Activity: 448

Merit: 250

this statement is false

Quote from: jl2012 on February 15, 2013, 01:32:18 AM

As you are still bearish, we are far from the peak of bullish sentiment. Wink

i see what you did there Tongue

but the market exhibits frequency-dependent selection for individual profit. the first bears to wake up from hibernation win.

jl2012

legendary

Activity: 1792

Merit: 1111

Quote from: arepo on February 15, 2013, 01:30:25 AM

Quote from: mccorvic on February 15, 2013, 01:28:30 AM

SHORT TERM ANALYSIS: BEARS WILL CONTINUE TO POST TERRIBLE THREADS IN HOPES THAT SOME HOW THERE POSTS WILL ACTUALLY IMPACT THE MARKET.

News at 11.

the market always tops during the peak of bullish sentiment. hope you like holding bags.

As you are still bearish, we are far from the peak of bullish sentiment. Wink

arepo

sr. member

Activity: 448

Merit: 250

this statement is false

Quote from: mccorvic on February 15, 2013, 01:28:30 AM

SHORT TERM ANALYSIS: BEARS WILL CONTINUE TO POST TERRIBLE THREADS IN HOPES THAT SOME HOW THERE POSTS WILL ACTUALLY IMPACT THE MARKET.

News at 11.

the market always tops during the peak of bullish sentiment. hope you like holding bags.

mccorvic

hero member

Activity: 518

Merit: 500

SHORT TERM ANALYSIS: BEARS WILL CONTINUE TO POST TERRIBLE THREADS IN HOPES THAT SOME HOW THERE POSTS WILL ACTUALLY IMPACT THE MARKET.

News at 11.

arepo

sr. member

Activity: 448

Merit: 250

this statement is false

Quote from: jl2012 on February 14, 2013, 11:03:15 PM

Quote from: arepo on February 14, 2013, 09:51:49 PM

1-MONTH 6-HOUR SHORT-TERM

http://s8.postimage.org/6xxlhl7tx/winterbullrun_Vreversal.png

mass index giving a reversal signal on the slightly longer term scale as well, although still has yet to settle.

Are you just cherry-picking? I will have different conclusion by choosing different time-scale: more bullish (or less bearish) for the longer term

4-MONTH DAILY MID-TERM

other timescales indicate reversal territory as well. so no, not cherry-picking.

jl2012

legendary

Activity: 1792

Merit: 1111

Quote from: arepo on February 14, 2013, 09:51:49 PM

1-MONTH 6-HOUR SHORT-TERM

http://s8.postimage.org/6xxlhl7tx/winterbullrun_Vreversal.png

mass index giving a reversal signal on the slightly longer term scale as well, although still has yet to settle.

Are you just cherry-picking? I will have different conclusion by choosing different time-scale: more bullish (or less bearish) for the longer term

arepo

sr. member

Activity: 448

Merit: 250

this statement is false

1-MONTH 6-HOUR SHORT-TERM

mass index giving a reversal signal on the slightly longer term scale as well, although still has yet to settle.

arepo

sr. member

Activity: 448

Merit: 250

this statement is false

Quote from: arepo on February 13, 2013, 11:55:36 PM

the mass index is the most important signal here. generally, the reversal doesn't take trend until the volatility at least peaks, and often not until it reaches back below the marked threshold. this is why i'm not surprised we're continuing slowly up. i just hope the top doesn't bubble up...

mass index just now touching threshold on the micro term, which should allow the noise from the movement to dissipate and the new trend to take shape. if prices continue to rise, that invalidates the reversal signal. if prices move within a range or down, that is a validation.

also, a nice bearish divergence forming in the stochastic oscillator.

arepo

sr. member

Activity: 448

Merit: 250

this statement is false

the mass index is the most important signal here. generally, the reversal doesn't take trend until the volatility at least peaks, and often not until it reaches back below the marked threshold. this is why i'm not surprised we're continuing slowly up. i just hope the top doesn't bubble up...

jojo69

legendary

Activity: 3318

Merit: 4606

diamond-handed zealot

at this point I don't dare hope

ElectricMucus

legendary

Activity: 1666

Merit: 1057

Marketing manager - GO MP

gonna squeeze a couple of more cents out.

arepo

sr. member

Activity: 448

Merit: 250

this statement is false

10-DAY 2-HOUR MICRO-TERM analysis

1. MACD (moving-averages)
shows double top pattern, representing the recent 'flattening' of prices.

2. Mass Index (volatility-based reversal signal)
reversal [short-term downtrend] will commence when the volatility calms back under the red/blue band

3. MFI (volume-based)
shows bearish divergence against the quick price recovery, partly due to decreasing volume slope

4. Chaikin Money Flow (also volume-based)
bearish divergence approaching a crossover signal

i rest my case.

Topic: Reversal! - page 3. (Read 4516 times)