Topic: rpietila Altcoin Observer - page 214. (Read 387493 times)

It's funny how you support a coin(Darkcoin) with a 50% instamine by the developers at launch..they didn't even bother making a new coin when they could of to get rid of the instamine because they hold most of that instamine themselves...Plus its masternodes are something that could always be compromised. Most masternodes are hosted on Amazon servers, and they can all be taken down, by DDOS attacks etc etc, thereby abolishing Darkcoin's "anonymity". Not to mention, Darkcoins anonymity stems from coinjoin, which itself is hardly anonymous, see here: http://www.coinjoinsudoku.com/advisory/

Don't get me wrong, I myself own 210 darkcoin(the most of any crypto I have), but I value it as a pump and dump only, as do most holding Darkcoin right now....it's 50% instamine and coinjoin anonymity based on human backed masternodes is just stupid....no other way to say it.

Even Zerocash's huge trust issue is a better anonymity alternative than Darkcoin.

Personally, I'm invested, to some degree or the other, in the whole anonymous market - so I don't have to worry so much about who wins and who doesn't. I'm well hedged so to speak.

There are fundamentals in place that I have analyzed in the DRK thread, with great precision - as to how the situation would evolve in terms of marketcaps and other anon coins that would join the party after DRK... That was ~4 months ago. The context of the discussion was about the need for marketing and promotion of DRK, where I said that the fundamentals of explosive growth in new markets will take care of everything - so no real need for promo/hype/spamming etc.


The same applies today. The market cap of anon coins is nearly identical with my prediction, and it is dominated by DRK (>50%), Bytecoin & clones and Bitcoin-based pumps & dumps or coins that are ...trying. I also predict this 1% will gradually be extended towards the 10% mark - but that will be slower in comparison to the 1% (that should be obvious).

The only piece of the puzzle left, to diversify into, are zero-proof coins - which can come in and claim superiority against mixing practices in Bitcoin & Bytecoin.

I do have some ANCs from the times when DRK and ANC were the only anon coins in existence (zerocash wasn't an option back then), so my hedge against DRK was ANC by necessity. ANC has been very low in price (given the coins in circulation) and has promised zerocash integration in early July... if that hedge also manages to blow up in price, well, ...I'll be damned...

Bummed at the tirade, especially #3   Would you be able to give some examples of that?






Very low Mintpal volume. Price is not reflective of market confidence IMO. I was watching the sells. It is just few coins being sold for  BTC0.2/0.5 I am guessing to indulge in some PumpNDump that are forming over the last 2-3 days. Profits will go back to where they originally came from.

I don't know if pictures are allowed in here but


source: https://poloniex.com/exchange/btc_xmr


is it a bottom or just bravado?

On the last spike, when China was manic on BTC, it went manic on LTC even bigger, but slightly later.  On the chart we see that during its heyday LTC\USD would lag BTC\USD at the start of a run-up, then slingshot beyond it at the peak.  I think LTC's heyday is truly over, and don't expect it to exhibit the same behaviour on the next BTC spike, but DRK and XMR both may be subjected to this elastic-attachment mechanic.

Indisputibly so.  I consider dark to be shady, however.  I sold out of drk and moved to xmr for three primary reasons: (1) CN protocol allows me to actually control the size of my anonymity set, and I have confidence that the set will hold; not so drk.  (2) P&D/premine/ponzi factors are beyond my tolerance level in drk.  (3) Snake oil crypto claims raise my hackles.  I'm just not going to trust my life and treasure to drk' s protocols.  Great coin if you love forks, however.

I don't think anyone advocates xmr more strongly than I do.  I am taking my own medicine, and I don't want anyone else to get sick either.  It definitely benefits me if others adopt XMR, but I strongly believe that it will benefit them as well, as long as they don't own more than they can hold in strong hands.  

It isn't the leading coin with privacy claims, in terms of market cap.  It isn't the first cryptonote protocol coin.  It isn't the most user friendly coin by a nautical mile.  But it does have a balance of factors which convince me that it is the leading candidate to supply the net with private liquidity for years to come.  In areas where it is weak, it is good enough, and improving.  In areas where it is strong, it is distinguished from its competitors by the honesty and frankness of its development team, it's open-source ethos, its fair launch, its methodical, un-hyped progress, in a well-planned and prioritized process, and the size and growth of its hashing infrastructure.

I really do think that slow and steady can win this race.  It's already good enough for technically aware people to use, and it won't take long for it to be good enough for anyone who is comfortable with bitcoin today to use it.  How long it will take before it is suitable for mainstream use, I dare not venture -- years, I would say, since that is a very high bar of usability (think iPod).  But it has all it needs now to get there in due time.

I have wondered the same so many times, and have arrived the same conclusion: probably alts will multiply his value together.

In fact, it seems XMR at .005 is overselled and could easily duplicate its value vs BTC in the coming weeks/months.

.008-.01 seems more reasonable in short-mid term

Dark = market leader, the coin that actually developed anonymous solutions when others were saying "the exchanges will ban you", "nobody needs anonymity", "good luck with your darkcoin name - it'll go nowhere", "the NSA will hunt you down", "it will be banned" and all type of idiotic stuff.

It cannot be compared with coins that are trailing in its wake (offering nothing btw - like Cryptcoin which right now has a ...whitepaper).

There is a reason why DRK is where it is and others are where they are:

What do you think will happen when BTC is at $10,000 per BTC to the alt coins? Will they still move at the same ratios? I am getting the feeling they might not due to perceived value but then again when you can buy an Alt coin with a strong network for a fraction of that, then perhaps they do move together. For comparisons sake XMR at .005 would equate to $50. Dark at .017 = $170.
And as time goes on I think many coins would be accepted. It will be "plug and play" as far as many websites are concerned. And who knows what happens once we have our AOL moment.

I do however think that when BTC really starts to move up in price we will see a CLEAR distinction between the #2-#5 coins (for example) and those lesser ones.
Something like XMR, if things continue well with development and eventual a GUI wallet for wider adoption, will be very catchy. Unfortunately some of the coins with
questionable pasts (e.g. Dark, Cryptcoin, etc.) might take off just on "name" along.

This is certainly going to get more and more interesting. Again, enjoy the ride fellas.

IAS

It wasn't my intent.  Market evidence seems to be that selling is abating faster than buying is abating, recently, although both are abating.

Momentum tends to drive the price beyond equilibria, and most of my effort goes into trying to find the equilibrium points and their relative stability.  I'm uncomfortable predicting how far momentum will overshoot.  Others are better at that.  I have a monkey for that.  (But he is ignorant of XMR yet.)

I do think we are near current equilibrium, and the equilibrium point is rising with difficulty. 

There is some small forum evidence that p&ds are planning to hit XMR again soon, but I hope not.  I prefer organic growth and low volatility.

Simplify, please.  I interpret this to mean, "buying will subside".

I get just under 0057.  It seems likely that the current price can't last.  Hot money will burn off eventually.  But it will do so slowly, as all the alt markets are at low volume ebb while btc is depressed.  Some speculate that when btc is depressed, alt traders tend to rotate into btc, in anticipation of rising btc costs.  Given that alt trades are 99% using btc as numeraire,  this seems utter folly to me, but that doesn't make it untrue.  If true, they will lose quite a bit of value in the rotation process, on average.
 

whats the latest rate? current hash is 13,263,873.50

note the corrected aws c3.8xl hash rate, most recent posting data, is 1201, as mentioned earlier in this thread.  block rewards coming in at 15.99, aws spot rate around .26.

GPU hashing clouds the issue a bit, but it's pretty inaccessible still, requires substantial GPU hardware (repurposed from scrypt presumably) and adding capacity to mine XMR specifically seems unlikely.  A model for GPU hash pricing should cover all the CNs (in the broad sense, i.e. including BBR), account for nvidia vs. amd distribution, and rebalance according to yield.  Do-able, but non-trivial.  The AWS marginal model has the advantage of being trivially available information and the disadvantage of becoming less and less predictive as GPU hashing increases.
 

I would make the point that, most likely, the excess marginal mining production by AWS instances is shifting toward more of a balance between GPU's and CPU's and not CPU's alone .. with the introduction of more refined and available software. It's a balance that's not been observed before that I know of .. so the questions you're asking don't have simple answers because there's no real history to compare this to; however, the price is fluctuating, more so than it is decreasing or increasing right now.

Cannot find it. Link please?

rpietila Altcoin Observer  ---------> Monero PUMP thread!

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Or am I missng something? 

Difficulty is at an ATH.

If I use Aminorex formula to calculate marginal miner price at AWS with Wolf miner I get : 0.0054

Why are we in a downtrend when difficulty is rising? Why are people selling so low? Why are there not more people buying? Is this simply because of lack of demand or is the market dumb or is there something else i didnt understand/factor in?

Just be patient! - 50% of your BTC into XMR is already significant amount.

If anything you could say hero members are the type crazy enough to spot potential value and trends further in advance than the herd and capitalize on that. In the medium to long term the potential for XMR is very good, that's why I bought some. But the altcoin ecosystem is amok with short term traders looking for a quick profit. So be very careful, its risky out here!