rpietila Altcoin Observer - page 216.

devphp

sr. member

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Merit: 260

Quote from: Melbustus on June 25, 2014, 11:09:53 AM

...this is how network effect works; what's currently strongest gets the support, and it therefore grows stronger. Soon enough the strength is far harder to overcome.

Since that is only a theory, which has to be proven, we shall have to see if that is the case. Since before Bitcoin there were no Hero members, and Hero members just now are voicing their support for Monero that attracted their attention, this is the first precedent of this kind.

Melbustus

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Quote from: devphp on June 25, 2014, 11:04:33 AM

Quote from: GreekBitcoin on June 25, 2014, 11:03:26 AM

They do this all the time. So? Coins are cloning Bitcoin. So what? Monero can clone good features too. If most things are being developed for monero as it is happening right now then the rest will just follow...

Bitcoin had a few years first mover advantage, which some people call network effect, Monero doesn't have that.

Have you noticed all the Hero members in this thread voicing support for Monero? How many people with activity over 500 do you see in other alt threads?

It's not nothing that the people who saw the intellectual argument for bitcoin *early*, and bootstrapped it, are getting behind another coin....many of us for the first time.

That said, we *are* early enough that another CN coin *could* overtake through some chaotic happenstance... But you have to go with probabilities. This process is how network effect works; what's currently strongest gets the support, and it therefore grows stronger. Soon enough the strength is far harder to overcome.

devphp

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Activity: 336

Merit: 260

Quote from: GreekBitcoin on June 25, 2014, 11:03:26 AM

They do this all the time. So? Coins are cloning Bitcoin. So what? Monero can clone good features too. If most things are being developed for monero as it is happening right now then the rest will just follow...

Bitcoin had a few years first mover advantage, which some people call network effect, Monero doesn't have that. BBR team doesn't follow, but innovates. Fantomcoin innovates - merge-mines on all CNs - potentially largest network. Where is Monero's advantage?

Melbustus

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Quote from: aminorex on June 25, 2014, 10:36:38 AM

Quote from: nakaone on June 25, 2014, 10:25:23 AM

can someone explain why there is so much uncertainty regarding the cryptonotes (bbr,xmr)? not trolling just asking

the only thing I am really afraid of is that there comes something new which is much better which hinders network effects of cryptonotes/ring signatures

...

Realistically, the ring signature technique is based on crypto which is 16 years old. That's the approximate pace at which this sort of innovation occurs. While it is possible that next week some acned autistic child of E.E. and Math parents in a Palo Alto basement will crank out a fundamentally innovative new technique which will out-compete ring signatures (and decide that instead of a military contract they can best monetize it by putting yet another horse in the crypto-currency anonymity race) I wouldn't worry about it.

To be fair, Zerocoin/cash is the other potential here. But given that it doesn't actually exist in the wild, and CryptoNote does, it's seeming likely that the network effect will materialize around a CN coin, probably Monero. As long as CN proves "good enough", it probably wins.

GreekBitcoin

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getmonero.org

Quote from: devphp on June 25, 2014, 10:57:48 AM

Quote from: aminorex on June 25, 2014, 10:36:38 AM

I wouldn't worry about it.

But would you worry about other clones of Bytecoin that can quickly copy all commits of XMR?

They do this all the time. So? Coins are cloning Bitcoin. So what? Monero can clone good features too. If most things are being developed for monero as it is happening right now then the rest will just follow...

devphp

sr. member

Activity: 336

Merit: 260

Quote from: aminorex on June 25, 2014, 10:36:38 AM

I wouldn't worry about it.

But would you worry about other clones of Bytecoin that can quickly copy all commits of XMR?

Melbustus

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Quote from: statdude on June 25, 2014, 10:16:20 AM

Quote from: aminorex on June 25, 2014, 09:42:17 AM

As long as the fundamentals remain sound and predictable, there is no harm in doubling down. It's when you' re wrong about the fundamentals that doubling down is a formula for a blow-up -- even if it works, it's bad, because you just get cocky and persist in the folly until you inevitably blow up.

Aminorex (or anyone), what are your thoughts on XMR versus current hotshot VRC?

Seems VRC is has a lot of flashy features, is touting anonymity, and definitely has a large social media presence.

Remember Quark?

There have been quite a few flashy hotshot social-media-aggressive coins that have come and gone.

aminorex

legendary

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Sine secretum non libertas

Quote from: nakaone on June 25, 2014, 10:25:23 AM

can someone explain why there is so much uncertainty regarding the cryptonotes (bbr,xmr)? not trolling just asking

the only thing I am really afraid of is that there comes something new which is much better which hinders network effects of cryptonotes/ring signatures

All of the snake oil crypto which is being released for pump and dump which touts anonymity has to compete with the ring signature technique. That creates a lot of motivated actors who will seek to create uncertainty about the sound crypto technique, in order that they might compete on more equal grounds.

Realistically, the ring signature technique is based on crypto which is 16 years old. That's the approximate pace at which this sort of innovation occurs. While it is possible that next week some acned autistic child of E.E. and Math parents in a Palo Alto basement will crank out a fundamentally innovative new technique which will out-compete ring signatures (and decide that instead of a military contract they can best monetize it by putting yet another horse in the crypto-currency anonymity race) I wouldn't worry about it.

aminorex

legendary

Activity: 1596

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Sine secretum non libertas

Quote from: statdude on June 25, 2014, 10:16:20 AM

what are your thoughts on XMR versus flavor of the week VRC?

Seems VRC is has a lot of flashy features, is touting anonymity, and definitely has a large social media presence.

Personally, I don't speculate. I'm definitely not the one to ask. Touting anonymity is characteristic of scams these days. Verify all technology claims before investing. I won't say anything good or bad about VRC, as I am ignorant about it. But I would be remiss not to observe that the only reasonable default assumption for an alt is that it is a scam of some kind, and such things depend more on flash and PR, and less on technology.

If you want to participate in pump & dump, I'm sure there are much better places to ask. I think most people in this thread are interested in things which increase in utility over time, with marks rising to reflect that. (It's hard to short alts, except LTC.) Most of the p&d expertise will hang out elsewhere.

nakaone

hero member

Activity: 742

Merit: 500

can someone explain why there is so much uncertainty regarding the cryptonotes (bbr,xmr)? not trolling just asking

the only thing I am really afraid of is that there comes something new which is much better which hinders network effects of cryptonotes/ring signatures

statdude

legendary

Activity: 1498

Merit: 1000

Quote from: aminorex on June 25, 2014, 09:42:17 AM

As long as the fundamentals remain sound and predictable, there is no harm in doubling down. It's when you' re wrong about the fundamentals that doubling down is a formula for a blow-up -- even if it works, it's bad, because you just get cocky and persist in the folly until you inevitably blow up.

Aminorex (or anyone), what are your thoughts on XMR versus current hotshot VRC?

Seems VRC is has a lot of flashy features, is touting anonymity, and definitely has a large social media presence.

ShroomsKit_Disgrace

legendary

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Yeah! I hate ShroomsKit!

Quote from: darkota on June 25, 2014, 09:11:44 AM

I'm still crying..

Yeah! You cry all over the "alt" section of the forum with your massive troll post! Roll Eyes

aminorex

legendary

Activity: 1596

Merit: 1030

Sine secretum non libertas

As long as the fundamentals remain sound and predictable, there is no harm in doubling down. It's when you' re wrong about the fundamentals that doubling down is a formula for a blow-up -- even if it works, it's bad, because you just get cocky and persist in the folly until you inevitably blow up.

saddambitcoin

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Merit: 1004

Quote from: darkota on June 25, 2014, 09:11:44 AM

Quote from: saddambitcoin on June 25, 2014, 09:08:28 AM

I got a little too caught up in the buzz last week and now my cost basis sits around 0.006. Whoops.

I won't sell for a loss but perhaps I should add a bit more XMR to my holdings?

I remember when I bought in Darkcoin at $2.50 and it dropped to $1.20....Then it went back up to $2.50 about 2 weeks later, I sold at that price to not loose profit..and from $2.50 it went straight up to $15.

I'm still crying..

Ouch. But at least you did not lose money!

Reminds me of when LTC was taking off in March last year...I bought some at 0.005 BTC then gradually more until it topped at 0.0145 and crashed to half that. I was down at least 25 BTC for a week and really kicking myself for getting caught up in the pump. But then a couple weeks later it took off again!

So I hold strong on Monero because I think it really has great value. It's fun to send XMR and see how it splits up your outputs. It really works and the devs are focusing on the core issues so I think the next few months will be good for XMR.

darkota

hero member

Activity: 770

Merit: 500

Quote from: saddambitcoin on June 25, 2014, 09:08:28 AM

I got a little too caught up in the buzz last week and now my cost basis sits around 0.006. Whoops.

I won't sell for a loss but perhaps I should add a bit more XMR to my holdings?

I remember when I bought in Darkcoin at $2.50 and it dropped to $1.20....Then it went back up to $2.50 about 2 weeks later, I sold at that price to not loose profit..and from $2.50 it went straight up to $15.

I'm still crying..

GreekBitcoin

legendary

Activity: 1428

Merit: 1001

getmonero.org

Quote from: saddambitcoin on June 25, 2014, 09:08:28 AM

I got a little too caught up in the buzz last week and now my cost basis sits around 0.006. Whoops.

I won't sell for a loss but perhaps I should add a bit more XMR to my holdings?

I was too confident also and i didnt traded anything so i missed the opportunity to sell high buy lower. And i bought like 5% more at 0.007. Oh well...

saddambitcoin

legendary

Activity: 1610

Merit: 1004

I got a little too caught up in the buzz last week and now my cost basis sits around 0.006. Whoops.

I won't sell for a loss but perhaps I should add a bit more XMR to my holdings?

lebing

legendary

Activity: 1288

Merit: 1000

Enabling the maximal migration

Excellent posts guys about the comparison with Litecoin. Basically echoing my own thoughts. I am eerily reminded of the last time I felt so sure about investing in something...

On that note, if someone was an early buyer of Monero and wants to offload a large amount of coins without moving the price, pls pm me.

devphp

sr. member

Activity: 336

Merit: 260

Quote from: cAPSLOCK on June 25, 2014, 01:11:50 AM

Now the race is on for which CN coin is the leader.

Most of my money is on XMR. but to be honest I am glad there is competition, and I hope the devs can pull this thing off.

From my perspective, Fantomcoin has very good chances for survival as it can be merge-mined with all other CN coins without wasting additional power, hence potentially it will have the largest and most diversified mining network of them all.

cAPSLOCK

legendary

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Note the unconventional cAPITALIZATION!

Quote from: Melbustus on June 25, 2014, 12:11:02 AM

Again, well said. I've *hated* litecoin since it came out for exactly these reasons. LTC supporters have never understood the economic ramifications of what they're doing or why litecoin should or shouldn't have value. Thankfully I think LTC's days in the sun are more clearly numbered than ever, and a rational coin ecosystem is getting closer. The #2 coin *should* have meaningful functional differentiation from bitcoin.

One of the beautiful things about Cryptonote is the feature it offers is one Bitcoin should never offer, and the two ledgers will have distinct and complimentary uses. The are not competitors per say but compliments. Litecoin was touted as "silver to Bitcoin's gold" A relationship which makes sense if you are talking about the metals, but not when you are talking about digital money. Cryptonote is "night to Bitcoin's day". And this is a relationship which is not only possible in cryptocurrency, but arguably imperative.

Now the race is on for which CN coin is the leader.

Most of my money is on XMR. but to be honest I am glad there is competition, and I hope the devs can pull this thing off.

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