Topic: rpietila Altcoin Observer - page 220. (Read 387556 times)

thanks for the detail, i was trying to figure this out myself.

if this is the case, why is anyone selling Monero this cheap?

One had might as well do it right.  There are other variables, although they vary less rapidly over time than does difficulty:

(Difficulty hash/block * Rate $/hr) / (Hostrate hash/sec * 3600 sec/hr * Reward xmr/block * Nonorphan block/block * Exchange $/btc) = N btc/xmr

Rate (EC2 c3.8xlarge spot instance pricing) is ~0.2575 usd/hr [1]
Exchange is ~600 usd/btc
Difficulty is 8.1e8 [2]
Hostrate (EC2 c3.8xlarge) is 610 hash/sec [2]
Reward is ~16.07 xmr/block [3]
Nonorphan rate (pool mined) is ~0.93

1. http://aws.amazon.com/ec2/purchasing-options/spot-instances/
2. https://minergate.com/blockchain/mro/block/372ad817b077c058e269ae0ea7c6d6bc603578be568e3f51f2e4d436ede04c51
3. https://docs.google.com/a/southoftheclouds.net/spreadsheets/d/1MI-ic0Os25hgGUImW54sUIjZY_pUNQNa_W8Se5pRGBs

EDIT: with new parameters at this moment the marginal production cost estimate is 0.011 btc/xmr (2014-06-23 01:00 GMT)

you guys will have to do your calculation again : monero difficulty just hit an ATH of 800M

So, 0.0067 at diff 641mm,
0.0104 at diff 775mm
So, estimated cost to produce = Difficulty/82800000000
Difficulty at 1 billion (how soon?), then cost to produce=  0.012 ?

You are giving ideas now for BBR spinoffs with better names

such butthurt, much anger

I did mean short term hedge/profiteering/dilution vis-a-vis BBR, but thanks for the reassurance as I take your comments very seriously.  


Agreed for the most part, except probably for the control freak portrayal of CZ. He seems to have BCN and t_f_t connections for sure though, from the little I have followed.


LMAO. Not sure about the shooting part, but the QCN guy is one of the worst scumbags on the forums.

i seriously doubt there is any meaningful correlation between bbr and xmr pricing, once you subtract beta factors.  that doesn't mean bbr isn't dilutive -- it is dilutive, but only in the short-run.  (in the long run dark liquidity will be a monopoly, i.e. radically dominated by one vehicle.)

bbr is a one-man show run by a very talented control-freak.  in order to have any hope of becoming the monopoly currency it would first need a complete relaunch under a new name, with a competent CEO type at the helm, and a diverse development team.  

that said, it has interest, it is making a contribution, and it will probably do well, as minor alt currencies go, if only on the strength of CZs talent and energy.  as it is open source, we all benefit from those contributions.  while it is understandable that one might prefer not to be diluted in the near term, that is just a necessary cost of benefiting from those contributions.

In contrast, QCN, MCN, FCN - these are just crap.  If I were the judge, the developers of these coins would be shot and their families billed for the bullet.  The BCN founders would merely be sent to Fort Leavenworth for a decade or so.

Personally I was hoping there would be no more cannibalization between CN coins and or a co-ordinated FUD against XMR from some disgruntled BCN followers. I respect BBR dev, but I can't understand the thought of breaking the market when a majority accepted XMR as the go to CN coin. With the private miner in BBR only a select few are enriching themselves for now and even the future with their big stashes. I noticed a slight simultaneous XMR downtrend and a corresponding BBR uptrend situation today for the first time.

btw - while I haven't been annoyed enough about this gpu-fear-hype machine to actually hack stratum/jsonrpc code into convoluted c in cpuminer, I have been annoyed enough to spend a bunch of time optimizing the CPU miner, and Zoidberg has done the same.  The most recent commits improve standalone CPU mining speed by somewhere around 20% on windows and 57% on Linux:

(win):  https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.7444825
(lnx):  https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.7452285

We won't know how the increasing scratchpad size, optimizations, etc., all interact, but I believe that these improvements will narrow the gap substantially between the hypothetical GPU miner, any private optimized miners hanging out there in secret, and the every-day small-scale pool miner.  I'm even optimistic that these changes are better for desktops than for massive EC2 servers, which is kind of fun.  Archit tells me he's making progress pursuing the cpuminer stratum/bbr integration bounty.

So with all of this, I hope we can put the mining distribution FUD to sleep for a while.   Call me weird, but I think the most important battle is not between XMR and BBR.  Both are at the forefront of privacy-enhanced cryptocurrency, and some push and shove between them as they claw for market share will probably be good for overall innovation in the cryptonote space.  The real question will be real-world deployment and use vs the bitcoin family:  how much does the market value stronger anonymity and privacy, and to what degree can these features be successfully backported into existing currencies?

That's a great idea ! Decentralized FIAT exchange are the way to go.


Haha exactly. Today Cryptocurrencies are tolerated but tomorrow you'll be either fully confiscated (like gold before) or a criminal.
We need financial privacy to survive if things goes wrong and I believe it will.

I am very very worried about what my government thinks of it.  Which is one reason I am glad there are ways emerging to protect my financial privacy.

My opinion is irrelevant.  You should worry about what your government thinks of it.

Now THIS is WAY more bullish than any Mintpal addition.  Of course you don't really LIKE the idea of Monero do you Jorge? 

Is it bad to keep our money where there is no way for government to see?

LOL.  Unfortunately you are probably right.

After carefully reading the OP I've decided to take a much closer look at Monero for potential investment.

The indisputable sign that XMR has made it as a cryptocurrency will be the infestation of the Monero thread by digitaria Stolfinia

Today I estimate the marginal cost of production of 1 XMR, using Amazon C3.8xlarge spot instances, as 0.0104 BTC.

If difficulty continues to rise exponentially it will overrun the ability of the numeraire pipe to provide demand liquidity.
MintPal would help in that regard.  With additional exchanges, new coins can more easily be absorbed. 

I think a local coins exchange via Mycelium would be super helpful because it would provide both wallet utility infratructure and a distributed demand liquidity soak.

Whether XMR can maintain its leadership position through the course of a difficulty/demand mismatch and correction -- that issue will be it's first major existential hurdle.

Found the information about the mining. Certainly interesting as everyone has a chance to get in while the supply is still high for quite a while. 18.4 million coins in total.
Taken from: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/xmr-monero-a-secure-private-untraceable-cryptocurrency-583449 And because of the huge early distribution I think that certainly limits our upside (as has been mentioned) in the short term.

Roughly 86% mined in 4 years (see graph).

We are a bit ahead of our time, in the sense of being ready for the masses. The developers are still working on getting the bugs worked out as this is no BTC clone. (Which is a great security blanket.)
We don't even have a GUI wallet yet and that is not scheduled for months from now. To boot, be sure other coins will be released, not to mention 2.0 coins, that will take some of our thunder.

The "issue" that has been brought up is that the coins mined over the next 2 years is relatively high and since Bots are involved that is going to a fair amount of downward pressure.
Does anyone know the rate of coin distribution/mining over this period of time? (Sorry, forget the proper terminology here.) I'd like to see the number of coins that can be sold in this two year window. I wonder what % of miners the bots make up, or will make up.

Its about sharing