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Topic: rpietila Altcoin Observer - page 25. (Read 387519 times)

donator
Activity: 1722
Merit: 1036
September 20, 2014, 12:15:56 PM
Sorry, but this makes no sense. 5% of today's hashrate could 51% attack the coin.

Seriously, all these discussions lately about changing fundamental stuff just because people are not happy with the price are tiring.
Changing the fundamentals of a coin because you want an immediate increase in price is wrong. Given the stability of XMR despite the fact that it is everything but user friendly for the average Joe, and all the attacks, I'd say the fundamentals in terms of emissions are about perfect.

 

AMEN

You know what would be an interesting experiment. Actually trying it. Because my theory is that a change like this would make the price go down, exactly the opposite of what people usually proposing such changes intend.

No, I'm not seriously suggesting this for XMR, but I would love to see the experiment happen.

No you don't want to try it, I have seen this experiment happen before, it was after Dogecoin decided not to fix the emission limit, I remember some whales talked to the devs to reconsider at no avail, the result you see today, a dying coin with no hopes, with a community getting its fix of small good news and micro pumps once in a while. A coin need whale and investors.

I personally think inflation is an extremely important thing, that's not yet taken seriously. A defaltionary currency encourages holding (fixed supply, naturally increasing demand=rising price) and not spending, thus the holders hold on to it, until they spent it, which drives the cycle down and the currency will loose more and more rapidly value until it starts again to rise and the cycle of death continues, which no economy can sustain. Just look over at Japan and you can clearly see how much it has failed. While inflation may discourage holders and investors in the early days and drive down the price short teram, it is extremely important "to redistribute the wealth from the holders to the spenders" (Anonymint somewhere in this thread) to allow an exononmy to work properly. The only reason this is working out currently with Bitcoin is that it will take years until it is deflationary and so far it's inflation has worked out to great effect(?)

Perhaps some of what you say may be true in certain cases, but with regards to Bitcoin I think it's fairly clear that the current rate of 10% yearly inflation is doing a fair amount of harm. There doesn't appear to be sufficient demand yet to sustain some of the higher prices that have been touched on by Bitcoin in the last year.

If Bitcoin was fully mined, such as Quark, there would be nobody even remotely interested in buying it, and the price would be down even more, with no sign or prospect of recovery.
legendary
Activity: 826
Merit: 1002
amarha
September 20, 2014, 12:02:12 PM
Sorry, but this makes no sense. 5% of today's hashrate could 51% attack the coin.

Seriously, all these discussions lately about changing fundamental stuff just because people are not happy with the price are tiring.
Changing the fundamentals of a coin because you want an immediate increase in price is wrong. Given the stability of XMR despite the fact that it is everything but user friendly for the average Joe, and all the attacks, I'd say the fundamentals in terms of emissions are about perfect.

 

AMEN

You know what would be an interesting experiment. Actually trying it. Because my theory is that a change like this would make the price go down, exactly the opposite of what people usually proposing such changes intend.

No, I'm not seriously suggesting this for XMR, but I would love to see the experiment happen.

No you don't want to try it, I have seen this experiment happen before, it was after Dogecoin decided not to fix the emission limit, I remember some whales talked to the devs to reconsider at no avail, the result you see today, a dying coin with no hopes, with a community getting its fix of small good news and micro pumps once in a while. A coin need whale and investors.

I personally think inflation is an extremely important thing, that's not yet taken seriously. A defaltionary currency encourages holding (fixed supply, naturally increasing demand=rising price) and not spending, thus the holders hold on to it, until they spent it, which drives the cycle down and the currency will loose more and more rapidly value until it starts again to rise and the cycle of death continues, which no economy can sustain. Just look over at Japan and you can clearly see how much it has failed. While inflation may discourage holders and investors in the early days and drive down the price short teram, it is extremely important "to redistribute the wealth from the holders to the spenders" (Anonymint somewhere in this thread) to allow an exononmy to work properly. The only reason this is working out currently with Bitcoin is that it will take years until it is deflationary and so far it's inflation has worked out to great effect(?)

Perhaps some of what you say may be true in certain cases, but with regards to Bitcoin I think it's fairly clear that the current rate of 10% yearly inflation is doing a fair amount of harm. There doesn't appear to be sufficient demand yet to sustain some of the higher prices that have been touched on by Bitcoin in the last year.
legendary
Activity: 826
Merit: 1002
amarha
September 20, 2014, 11:59:16 AM
Anyone think litecoin will recover like dogecoin has these last weeks?

What news is in the pipeline for LTC?

From what I understand doge has a big mining decrease coming up as well as them releasing 'Dogeparty' which is a fork of Counterparty as far as I know.
member
Activity: 93
Merit: 10
September 20, 2014, 11:30:04 AM
I no longer want to short Monero. You can rest easier. What I found can be fixed (if it isn't already). I believe I found BCX's exploit, although it is possible I found one that is different than his. And I believe he is incorrect about it not being fixable. At first thought, I too also thought it was a "coin killer".

Note I haven't worked through one part of the math so it is still possible that I am incorrect about this being an exploit, but I think I got the key epiphany of the exploit which makes it is possible.

It is also possible that this was already thought of and mitigated. I haven't checked the source code to verify. This is all conceptual at this point.

Already messaged smooth, tacotime or fluffypony about this? I think it would be easier to work the exploit with the help of them or their mathematicians out
member
Activity: 93
Merit: 10
September 20, 2014, 11:27:49 AM
Sorry, but this makes no sense. 5% of today's hashrate could 51% attack the coin.

Seriously, all these discussions lately about changing fundamental stuff just because people are not happy with the price are tiring.
Changing the fundamentals of a coin because you want an immediate increase in price is wrong. Given the stability of XMR despite the fact that it is everything but user friendly for the average Joe, and all the attacks, I'd say the fundamentals in terms of emissions are about perfect.

 

AMEN

You know what would be an interesting experiment. Actually trying it. Because my theory is that a change like this would make the price go down, exactly the opposite of what people usually proposing such changes intend.

No, I'm not seriously suggesting this for XMR, but I would love to see the experiment happen.

No you don't want to try it, I have seen this experiment happen before, it was after Dogecoin decided not to fix the emission limit, I remember some whales talked to the devs to reconsider at no avail, the result you see today, a dying coin with no hopes, with a community getting its fix of small good news and micro pumps once in a while. A coin need whale and investors.

I personally think inflation is an extremely important thing, that's not yet taken seriously. A defaltionary currency encourages holding (fixed supply, naturally increasing demand=rising price) and not spending, thus the holders hold on to it, until they spent it, which drives the cycle down and the currency will loose more and more rapidly value until it starts again to rise and the cycle of death continues, which no economy can sustain. Just look over at Japan and you can clearly see how much it has failed. While inflation may discourage holders and investors in the early days and drive down the price short teram, it is extremely important "to redistribute the wealth from the holders to the spenders" (Anonymint somewhere in this thread) to allow an exononmy to work properly. The only reason this is working out currently with Bitcoin is that it will take years until it is deflationary and so far it's inflation has worked out to great effect(?)
legendary
Activity: 1736
Merit: 1001
September 20, 2014, 11:08:46 AM
Anyone think litecoin will recover like dogecoin has these last weeks?
newbie
Activity: 42
Merit: 0
September 20, 2014, 11:08:17 AM
I no longer want to short Monero. You can rest easier. What I found can be fixed (if it isn't already). I believe I found BCX's exploit, although it is possible I found one that is different than his. And I believe he is incorrect about it not being fixable. At first thought, I too also thought it was a "coin killer".

Note I haven't worked through one part of the math so it is still possible that I am incorrect about this being an exploit, but I think I got the key epiphany of the exploit which makes it is possible.

It is also possible that this was already thought of and mitigated. I haven't checked the source code to verify. This is all conceptual at this point.
legendary
Activity: 826
Merit: 1002
amarha
September 20, 2014, 10:34:40 AM
You will know soon. What I've thought out is very preliminary so please don't jump to conclusions.

Alright. Smiley

*patiently waits eating popcorn* Tongue
newbie
Activity: 42
Merit: 0
September 20, 2014, 10:02:56 AM
You will know soon. What I've thought out is very preliminary so please don't jump to conclusions.
member
Activity: 84
Merit: 10
September 20, 2014, 09:45:55 AM
Can anyone loan me Monero? How much and what are the terms? PM me please.

Uh oh... Cheesy

Any particular reason you're choosing to do this now?

lol, indeed...
term a) Please don't kill the coin Wink
legendary
Activity: 826
Merit: 1002
amarha
September 20, 2014, 09:40:56 AM
Can anyone loan me Monero? How much and what are the terms? PM me please.

Uh oh... Cheesy

Any particular reason you're choosing to do this now?
newbie
Activity: 42
Merit: 0
September 20, 2014, 09:33:16 AM
Can anyone loan me Monero? How much and what are the terms? PM me please.
legendary
Activity: 1588
Merit: 1000
September 20, 2014, 08:15:20 AM
VIA tally = 17 Pietila Points

Monero tally = 18   Cool

VIA loses points for being small, but a tiny cap doubles more easily...

McRisto is the General of the Monero Truther Army...
That has literally trashed BCTalk with a sick Misinformation Campaign...
And this poll is carefully crafted FALLACY designed to make Monero look good.

*** Posted by a hardcore Monero Stooge who is spamming the VIA thread ***.
Keep this toxic garbage AWAY  FROM  VIA...
All Monero references should be deleted from the VIA thread.

VIA is a great coin with a fabulous network and Gen 2.0 services rolling out...
Monero is a one trick anon pony... with no wallet, no security and every botnet gunning for it.

Peter Todd had tweeted that the base Monero code is "atrocious"...
Meaning it's a maintenance/security nightmare...
And would have been scrapped and re-written by professionals.
newbie
Activity: 42
Merit: 0
September 20, 2014, 04:48:10 AM
You won't get the developed world to take an interest as a currency, rather only as an investment.

The developing world doesn't have credit cards. They also are interested in $5 a day in extra income.

Did you know filipinos spend more feeding their pigs than they sell for thus no profit? Yet they still raise pigs. Why? Because it is a savings account.

The world is getting smaller, quickly. As you say, Apple, Paypal, etc. are rapidly targeting the developing world. You have a few other such solutions there or going there as well, such as M-Pesa.

It still isn't clear to me that the developing world wants decentralized currency. Once the same or similar services from the developed are available there, consumers will likely make the same choices.

Credit cards are going away in the developed world too, or more properly becoming a speciality product for high end individuals and businesses. The mass market is increasingly debit, including the somewhat recent trend toward prepaid debit. In part because the masses are increasingly not credit worthy. The original point is valid for "payment cards" though.

And none of them are giving away $billions "for free" in $5 daily morsels to rocket launch the inertia.

Distribution is the key. How many times have I told you this.

And don't forget that the market cap != amount of funds invested, so that "free" can be paid either by the investors (if price is declining) or by the all billions of holders of fiat (if the price is increasing)! That was the gargantuan insight.

Also this:

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.8899072

Now I've shared so please don't make me pay for my cooperation by stealing from me. Surely if I've gotten that far, you need me so join me don't steal my ideas.
sr. member
Activity: 462
Merit: 250
September 20, 2014, 02:56:03 AM


Parroting the 'emission limit' argument without actually understanding what it's about reveals lack of thought. It's not the emission limit per se that counts, it's predictability of emission that is important as opposed to unpredictable emission we can witness in fiat that crypto currency enthusiasts usually refer to. It's the unpredictable "at-central-banks'-whim" emission that leads to inflated prices of goods and rapidly depreciating currency.

Many people will be proven wrong on Dogecoin in the near future. They don't understand that Dogecoin simply shortcut the distance and jumped straight to year 2020 in Bitcoin's life when Bitcoin's yearly emission volume/total supply would also become similar to what Dogecoin is scheduled to have in the coming 3 months. Of course, PoS coins jump to that state at Genesis block, but because PoW enthusiasts do not like those, it's fine, I don't mention those. However, provided we try to stay objective, there is no justification not to see Bitcoin's future in what Dogecoin does now. If you bet on Dogecoin demise now, it means you bet on Bitcoin demise in 5 years. Either that, or you just sold Doges at 20 satoshi and now you're pissed about it Smiley

The predictability of emission is very important as the market can adjust the price of the coin accordingly.
sr. member
Activity: 336
Merit: 260
September 20, 2014, 02:14:28 AM
No you don't want to try it, I have seen this experiment happen before, it was after Dogecoin decided not to fix the emission limit, I remember some whales talked to the devs to reconsider at no avail, the result you see today, a dying coin with no hopes, with a community getting its fix of small good news and micro pumps once in a while. A coin need whale and investors.

Parroting the 'emission limit' argument without actually understanding what it's about reveals lack of thought. It's not the emission limit per se that counts, it's predictability of emission that is important as opposed to unpredictable emission we can witness in fiat that crypto currency enthusiasts usually refer to. It's the unpredictable "at-central-banks'-whim" emission that leads to inflated prices of goods and rapidly depreciating currency.

Many people will be proven wrong on Dogecoin in the near future. They don't understand that Dogecoin simply shortcut the distance and jumped straight to year 2020 in Bitcoin's life when Bitcoin's yearly emission volume/total supply would also become similar to what Dogecoin is scheduled to have in the coming 3 months. Of course, PoS coins jump to that state at Genesis block, but because PoW enthusiasts do not like those, it's fine, I don't mention those. However, provided we try to stay objective, there is no justification not to see Bitcoin's future in what Dogecoin does now. If you bet on Dogecoin demise now, it means you bet on Bitcoin demise in 5 years. Either that, or you just sold Doges at 20 satoshi and now you're pissed about it Smiley
newbie
Activity: 42
Merit: 0
September 19, 2014, 09:54:29 PM
You won't get the developed world to take an interest as a currency, rather only as an investment.

The developing world doesn't have credit cards. They also are interested in $5 a day in extra income.

Did you know filipinos spend more feeding their pigs than they sell for thus no profit? Yet they still raise pigs. Why? Because it is a savings account.

The world is getting smaller, quickly. As you say, Apple, Paypal, etc. are rapidly targeting the developing world. You have a few other such solutions there or going there as well, such as M-Pesa.

It still isn't clear to me that the developing world wants decentralized currency. Once the same or similar services from the developed are available there, consumers will likely make the same choices.

Credit cards are going away in the developed world too, or more properly becoming a speciality product for high end individuals and businesses. The mass market is increasingly debit, including the somewhat recent trend toward prepaid debit. In part because the masses are increasingly not credit worthy. The original point is valid for "payment cards" though.

And none of them are giving away $billions "for free" in $5 daily morsels to rocket launch the inertia.

Distribution is the key. How many times have I told you this.
legendary
Activity: 2968
Merit: 1198
September 19, 2014, 09:17:12 PM
I believe he did not exactly mean that there is a serious and fatal exploit that is certainly exploitable and sure to kill the coin. He did not say it, and the world does not work that way.

He did say it, using almost exactly those words.

Most are what I call annoyance attacks, that would be fixed and the coin would probably survive, but one is a coin killer.
legendary
Activity: 2968
Merit: 1198
September 19, 2014, 08:39:05 PM
You won't get the developed world to take an interest as a currency, rather only as an investment.

The developing world doesn't have credit cards. They also are interested in $5 a day in extra income.

Did you know filipinos spend more feeding their pigs than they sell for thus no profit? Yet they still raise pigs. Why? Because it is a savings account.

The world is getting smaller, quickly. As you say, Apple, Paypal, etc. are rapidly targeting the developing world. You have a few other such solutions there or going there as well, such as M-Pesa.

It still isn't clear to me that the developing world wants decentralized currency. Once the same or similar services from the developed are available there, consumers will likely make the same choices.

Credit cards are going away in the developed world too, or more properly becoming a speciality product for high end individuals and businesses. The mass market is increasingly debit, including the somewhat recent trend toward prepaid debit. In part because the masses are increasingly not credit worthy. The original point is valid for "payment cards" though.


newbie
Activity: 42
Merit: 0
September 19, 2014, 08:29:12 PM
Thus it seems you are betting that BCX is lying. What caused you to place the odds higher that he is lying than not? It is very suspicious that he won't commit to reveal what he knows later if the exploit hasn't been sold and used by such a date in the future.

...This is a multi-faceted issue. The admittedly quite clever campaign that used the fake pro-Monero trolls may have influenced BCX's initial reaction.

Now we are already in a point where everyone actually involved wants to move on, and only the consumers of sensation media still want to dig deeper.

I agree, it appears BCX may have gotten suckered into something and wasn't prepared to take a hunch all the way to implementation.

And now they managed to suck me in too and want to see if my wild hunch has any merit.

P.S. Hope you noticed I have called the decline in the BTC correct twice now when you vehemently disagreed with me. Both times falling from $500s to the $300s. I helped the people in my group get out of BTC at $485. I actually told them in the $500s because I didn't pound the table hard enough.

On the larger (longer) cycle, has any one figured out how to scale CN's ring signatures to 200 million users?

Yes we have. No we aren't going to tell you how.

I don't even know that people want that though, which makes it a questionable focus. I'm sure you feel differently, so best of luck trying to create this mass scale consumer-driven solution you seem to envision (and I mean that sincerely -- I hope you succeed).

Honestly most are pretty happy with credit cards (would be better with a bit stronger security but that is an implementation detail), Apple Pay, Paypal, etc. Decentralization is interesting and has compelling advantages, but getting ordinary people to actually care about that difference seems an uphill battle, and the natural market for this technology seems elsewhere.

You won't get the developed world to take an interest as a currency, rather only as an investment.

The developing world doesn't have credit cards. They also are interested in $5 a day in extra income.

Did you know filipinos spend more feeding their pigs than they sell for thus no profit? Yet they still raise pigs. Why? Because it is a savings account.
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